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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #38,381
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:43am Jul 22, 2009 8:43am
Quoting urchman
my gu 4hr...hope enough players on this one.
PA at it's best eh?

Just goes on to show how important is the "space" element in trades you're willing to hold long term.

Should have been a fruitful scalp this one...

Ghous.
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  • #38,382
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:22am Jul 22, 2009 9:22am
Quoting supremeChaos
Cyrus,
yes, there are variations/varied situations wherein bad/poor-looking PBs (or other PA setups) work or good PBs get rejected/reversed/did poorly.
(pretty tough but..) Our task is to be very patient & discerning in that we take only the best we can to minimize losses/increase the probability for profits.

do remember, that shape of a PA setups (PBs, etc) is just 1 of the factors to consider. There is also Location, space, confluence, S/R, etc.. & PA shape is not the most important. if there are only 3 factors to consider (shape, Location, space),...
I was looking @ this 4hr pin mainly cause it looked like there was a confluence of support there.
From the chart, weekly pivot, fibs and old 'normal/natural' support as well.
I was thinking that the Daily chart

Now that you've explained that yes, I understand that red hammer isn't quite kosher...
erm...was wondering if this confluence of support would make it 'tradeable' by the standard of you more experienced guys here.

On Location, Space and Shape... i'm not that clear that this means,
my little guess:

Location = Where the pin is. Suppt/Resistance, swing high/lows, in the middle of a consolidation (not gd!) ?
Space = Where's the nearest price targets?
Shape = PA?

Is this what you meant? Sorry if it's totally off.

Been going through quite abit of charts by the more seasoned traders here, and have some questions because of some of the variations I see from the "ideal" model of,
"Green Hammer/Red Shooting Star"+ Confluence of S/R + Profit Tgts Decently Far Away.

Thus, little bit confused by what is "Go" and what is not.

Thanks for the quick reply once again Chaos

(GBPJPY; 4hour)
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One Mind, Any Market
  • #38,383
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:22am Jul 22, 2009 9:22am
Quoting bakko85
I'm looking at these carefully. The shape of the pin of Gbp Usd is attractive, but location maybe is not so good, or not? Instead, i like more the UsdChf BUOB because it is forming at an important PPZ: if it closes above 1.07 i think i'll go long at the break of the bar (ranging market in the last days on this pair).
Not throwing your ideas aside Bakko but both have their mediocrities obvious.

Gu's a typical case of "conflicting signals" note that the bar before your bearish pin bar is a good looking bullish pin bar.

Confluences and all that are valid but when I see such a scenario I am straight away inclined towards the "skip it" kind of a mood. Price then has to do something really special like break in the right direction very quickly etc. to get me interested.

Look at it like this. The pin bar Urchman took was a good bullish Pin bar, which meant the bulls were in power but what then, price hits a ppz and gives a bearish pin bar, so the bears are in power...

For me it's that..."Uh it's the bulls, err...no wait..look at that pin it's the bears...short short short, uh damn silly me...what am I thinking I'll hold my long, till the bearish pb breaks, or..."

In short...when in doubt stay out.

If you still plan to play it watch for a quick break and you'll need an eagle's eye on the bullish pin bar low.

*****-----*****

Usd/cad is another avg setup,

The location's fine and the round numbers all come in...

But worries me more than anything else is the ppz near 1.072. This might be very much tradable If the BUOB can hit the ppz and close beyond it with authority.

In these "tight" situations I always give a lot of importance to the close which has to be near it's high/low signaling the "current mood of price" to at least trouble the ppz in which case a potential trade has a slightly higher probability of winning.

All the best Bro.

EDIT: the BUOb closed more like an indescision bar, no trade had I been considering it.

Ghous.
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  • #38,384
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:37am Jul 22, 2009 9:37am
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.

I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.

Plenty of time for education and research.
  • #38,385
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:41am Jul 22, 2009 9:41am
Quoting TiaForex
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.

I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.

Plenty of time for education and research.
I know what you mean!!! I had 12 days a few weeks back with no trades (only doing day charts)

Then 4 in one day including a cheeky USDSGD!

Can't force it we must wait...

Fat Tom
  • #38,386
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:41am Jul 22, 2009 9:41am
Quoting TiaForex
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.

I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.

Plenty of time for education and research.
Summer time is vacation time...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #38,387
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:46am Jul 22, 2009 9:46am
Quoting TiaForex
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.

I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.

Plenty of time for education and research.
I know how that feels, not so much frustrating but exhausting, I also find my eyes get dry / I become light headed after a while.

Ive been watching the 5Min for 14/15HRs a day the last two weeks or so.

Games TV and Music are your friends bro ! Or else I'd look like this
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  • #38,388
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:53am Jul 22, 2009 9:53am
Quoting TiaForex
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.

I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.

Plenty of time for education and research.
Could always take Mike's lead and watch music videos. I forget which one we saw in his taskbar one time he posted his screenshots... hmm...Or just jump down to 5 minute and start trading live right away!

In all seriousness, patience is a virtue. As a wise man often says... "A few trades a month can produce..."

Josh
  • #38,389
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:58am Jul 22, 2009 9:58am
Quoting bfd
[size=2]I think thats the problem....to be successful it seems like you have to wait for the best setups which only come around rarely and if you only have a small account then you're only going to make a small amount of money on each trade.
So if you end up doing say 1 trade per week then thats hardly any profit. It seems like its only worth using this method if you have a large account so that you can wait for the perfect setups in the knowledge that each trade will net you hundreds or thousands.
So maybe its the case that success with this method...
I know I have posted on this topic before and what I am going to say is no different then what has been posted but in a different way.

As I see it there are some basic types of individuals

1. Someone learning to trade the right way.
2. Someone learning to trade the wrong way.
3. Someone who can trade and has a small account
4. Someone who can trade and has a big account.


Individual 1, is doing the right things. They are not yet profitable, they understand that to get there it is time, practice experience. Doing all the proper steps. Demoing to prove a method, being smart, understanding no quick riches in this game. They focus on a sound method. They know that this is a long term business and even if it takes them 10+ years to eventually build an account the future is what their focus is.

Individual 2, is doing multiple things wrong. This might be learning to trade with a real money account that is way to large for them to learn on(not a couple 100 bucks). They are taking every method they find, trading, when they have some losses moving on. This individual sees every method and unless they can extrapolate some crazy amount of return out of it, either tries to tweak it to get to that point, or moves onto the next. This individual wants as much money in a quick time. They can't see what is reasonable and what is unreasonable, b/c that line does not exist in their head. They are always thinking about their few thousand dollars and how can they springboard that. They are still in gambling mode.

Individual 3, is now consistently profitable. They now understand all the factors that go into trading and trading consistently. They have put their methods through the gauntlet and now are working on building an account. They are not content with their account size but know that consistent returns compounded will grow over time. They add to their account when they can because they are growing it. They are treating it like a plant. They ignore the urge to up their risk that puts their methods in jeopardy. They ARE a trader, but they can not trade and pull money from their account. They are in building mode. This mode can last however long it takes to grow their money, but it is worth doing with a long term out look.

Individual 4, is a trader with a large account. This trader is no different then trader 3 with their methods. They are sound, consistent, discipline. The difference now is individual 4 is on a large account and every trade they make is very good money. This helps individual 4 stay disciplined. This is the goal we all want.

I just tried to put this all in perspective different. I think so many of us just want to go from step 1 to 4. Their really are a lot of steps in between but I think making it really simplistic might help some others remember what their goals should be. If your goal is to try to turn 1k into a million a year then you have to understand you are a gambler and if that is fine with you that is fine with me. But if you want to get to the point to be a trader and learn to grow an account, then please do things slow and steady and you CAN get there.

Early morning rant for me

Mike
  • #38,390
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:08am Jul 22, 2009 10:08am
Quoting mbqb11
I know I have posted on this topic before and what I am going to say is no different then what has been posted but in a different way.

As I see it there are some basic types of individuals

1....
Early morning? Did you move to California already? Or is 11am rise and shine time for Mike?

Seriously though, this is great stuff and encapsulates the stages of the learning curve and the pitfalls of every stage. We're lucky to have you here dude.

Now go shower. It's nearly lunch for pity's sake.
  • #38,391
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:09am Jul 22, 2009 10:09am
Quoting TiaForex
Early morning? Did you move to California already? Or is 11am rise and shine time for Mike?

Seriously though, this is great stuff and encapsulates the stages of the learning curve and the pitfalls of every stage. We're lucky to have you here dude.

Now go shower. It's nearly lunch for pity's sake.
I get up around 930 these days(hey I went to bed after 4), that is a lot to get out of my mouth before 11(1058)
  • #38,392
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:18am Jul 22, 2009 10:18am
Quoting mbqb11
1. Someone learning to trade the right way.
2. Someone learning to trade the wrong way.
3. Someone who can trade and has a small account
4. Someone who can trade and has a big account.
Too bad most people start at 2 and never move on

James16 Thread: Eliminating step 2 from people's lives since 2005
  • #38,393
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:23am Jul 22, 2009 10:23am
Quoting ghous
...

Gu's a typical case of "conflicting signals" note that the bar before your bearish pin bar is a good looking bullish pin bar.
...

Ghous.
Very nice explanation Ghous but one more thing, if you were in the trade or any other trade that has good looking PB and the next bar turned out to be an opposite PB, what would you do? I guess explaining how you would manage this would be VERY beneficial to all of us. My option would be to put SL below the opposite PB, reducing the risk (assume that the next potential PPZ is further away, not 40-50 pips that we are able to BE our trades). Geeezzz... looks like an exams question

Thanks in advance! Keep on posting Ghous, your post is full of insight
  • #38,394
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:32am Jul 22, 2009 10:32am
Daily pin's on Oil & Gold. anyone taking these ?
  • #38,395
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:44am Jul 22, 2009 10:44am
Quoting arcus
Very nice explanation Ghous but one more thing, if you were in the trade or any other trade that has good looking PB and the next bar turned out to be an opposite PB, what would you do? I guess explaining how you would manage this would be VERY beneficial to all of us. My option would be to put SL below the opposite PB, reducing the risk (assume that the next potential PPZ is further away, not 40-50 pips that we are able to BE our trades). Geeezzz... looks like an exams question

Thanks in advance! Keep on posting Ghous, your...
Hope that the pin had hit your TP or at least the point where you have moved stop to BE? seriously though I would be looking to get out of the trade I think at that point... unless the pin is very small compared to the trade pin that is... Ghous will be along in a minute with a sensible answer....

Fat Tom
  • #38,396
  • Edited 12:00pm Jul 22, 2009 11:18am | Edited 12:00pm
Anyone in/still in the BEOB trade on the EURUSD from yesterday (1 PM EST)?

It broke by just enough to trigger and has since basically retraced and stayed in the bottom half o the BEOB.

I did see the highs at 1.4150 level, and it has come down to touch 1.4155, but I felt for this trade to be worth while, it should break through this area strongly.

So far, it has been flat, and I am sticking to my guns on it.

Just curious if anyone else took the trade and if they were still in it.

EDIT *****

On the same time frame now a BUOB has formed. I am moving my stop loss down to about 25 pips above the BUOB. Looks like I might take a loss on this one.
  • #38,397
  • Edited 12:58pm Jul 22, 2009 12:40pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting arcus
Very nice explanation Ghous but one more thing, if you were in the trade or any other trade that has good looking PB and the next bar turned out to be an opposite PB, what would you do? I guess explaining...
On this particular scenario Yes I would have booked some off the yellow ppz and moved my stop to BE in which case my trade would never have seen the bearish pin bar but...

if you ignore the yellow ppz I would definitely have hung on, because then the bearish pb wouldn't have been off anything really and the best thing would be to hang on and at least wait for the bearish Pb to break,

So Arcus is right in what he assumed I would do.

Ghous.
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  • #38,398
  • Jul 22, 2009 12:52pm Jul 22, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Anyone in/still in the BEOB trade on the EURUSD from yesterday (1 PM EST)?

It broke by just enough to trigger and has since basically retraced and stayed in the bottom half o the BEOB.

I did see the highs at 1.4150 level, and it has come down to touch 1.4155, but I felt for this trade to be worth while, it should break through this area strongly.

So far, it has been flat, and I am sticking to my guns on it.

Just curious if anyone else took the trade and if they were still in it.

EDIT *****

On the same time frame now a BUOB has formed....
It broke so hard I actually missed the entry at first and now...lol

The plan was to locate a good point for an SL which would be less than 3 figures. (100+ pip SL if i went the conventional way)

The idea has a catch which often goes unnoticed...you tend to get stopped out more often than when you deal with the conventional stop method.

For this particular trade the first thing that struck me was the 1.42 level and prior support evident from bar lows, at 12 midnight, I tucked the SL 25 pips above 1.42 and left for sleep,

Looks like it worked out well, but times when it doesn't are clear in my head. Trading is an art and not an exact science. You gotta find something that works for you "most" of the times.

Hang on in there Unlv,

If you take a loss on this one, it would be a genuine one IMHO. Look at it like money that belonged to the market, and you have no other way but to hand that back...like a trading tax or something

Anyways...

It's amazing how PA holds true no matter what! PA after beob bounced off 1.416 a minor ppz, we weren't expecting it to hold all that well is what took us by surprise...see the "tax" thing here Unlv.

You're doing good and you know it, just don't let these "out of the box" times set you off.

Ghous.
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  • #38,399
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:09pm Jul 22, 2009 1:09pm
Ghous, thank you for your detailed response!

I was thinking along the same lines. Then I looked at it more, as I got ready to trade and thought this one might be the one that makes a good run. It was a good bar, in a good location, with RSI (not MACD) divergence.

So I went for a full BEOB stop loss, and decided that I would not take profit unless it broke through that 1.416/5 level. I could have moved my TP up to 1.4155 last night and got out with like 12 pips, but I decided to hold on.

I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it is just a loss you chalk up to the routine hems and haws of the market.
  • #38,400
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:11pm Jul 22, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it is just a loss you chalk up to the routine hems and haws of the market.
would you mind showing me your back Unlv,

I gotta give it a nice pat.
I believe . . .
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