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  • #12,761
  • Jul 22, 2009 3:40am Jul 22, 2009 3:40am
Looking for a buy 50fib SBR/RBS
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  • #12,762
  • Jul 22, 2009 3:43am Jul 22, 2009 3:43am
An interesting trendline to be noted on weekly EURUSD.
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  • #12,763
  • Jul 22, 2009 3:51am Jul 22, 2009 3:51am
Little bit early, but limit short is on. 50fib, SBR/RBS,TF
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  • #12,764
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:49am Jul 22, 2009 8:49am
If gold does not break below last lows, I'm considering a bounce long on EU 1.4145. See spikes, visible on H4 too. Small stop, max. 30 pips
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #12,765
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:59am Jul 22, 2009 8:59am
Quoting spekitox
If gold does not break below last lows, I'm considering a bounce long on EU 1.4145. See spikes, visible on H4 too. Small stop, max. 30 pips
Although I don't look at Gold, I have a quite similar idea as you. I've marked this S/R too.
  • #12,766
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:02am Jul 22, 2009 9:02am
Quoting Gambis
Little bit early, but limit short is on. 50fib, SBR/RBS,TF


I found that this pair USD/CAD did not respond to S/R, fib, as good as others. Any comment?
  • #12,767
  • Jul 22, 2009 9:34am Jul 22, 2009 9:34am
A S/R is born.
A S/R gets strong.
A S/R gets old.
A S/R dies.
When I want to use it, it dies away! My 1.6400!
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  • #12,768
  • Jul 22, 2009 3:46pm Jul 22, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting kk007
A S/R is born.
A S/R gets strong.
A S/R gets old.
A S/R dies.
When I want to use it, it dies away! My 1.6400!
was this around news?

its been messing around too much around that level recently
  • #12,769
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:07pm Jul 22, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting kk007
A S/R is born.
A S/R gets strong.
A S/R gets old.
A S/R dies.
When I want to use it, it dies away! My 1.6400!
use as support? or resistance? too much ranging these days. :x
  • #12,770
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:35pm Jul 22, 2009 8:35pm
Even in choppy/ranging markets you will still sometimes see a large move take off from a S/R level that seemed to have been made irrelevant long ago. That's where watching price action and staying very attentive comes in handy.
  • #12,771
  • Edited 10:24pm Jul 22, 2009 9:54pm | Edited 10:24pm
I have observed using hourly close breakout to trade according to this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=274

However, the reliability is not that high. After a last failure observed:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12446

I saw another one yesterday as follows:

Actually, when you have all S/Rs ready, you can quite easy in evaluating the efficience of this method yourself.
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  • #12,772
  • Jul 23, 2009 12:42am Jul 23, 2009 12:42am
Quoting kk007
A S/R is born.
A S/R gets strong.
A S/R gets old.
A S/R dies.
When I want to use it, it dies away! My 1.6400!
KK,

Just an observation that you may want to consider, notice that on the 0800 bar on your chart the level was faded for a retrace of about 40pts. This would have been enough to keep me out on the second test especially considering it came roaring back within 2 hours, suggesting that another fade was not a high probability setup. BRV discusses this in his .pdf

Hope it helps.

Dingo
  • #12,773
  • Jul 23, 2009 12:54am Jul 23, 2009 12:54am
Ultimately I think EUR is bullish and is looking higher and will likely break higher, however there is potential for 2 TLs and a major high to line up which is an area to be aware of...
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  • #12,774
  • Jul 23, 2009 1:23am Jul 23, 2009 1:23am
Quoting dingo432
KK,

Just an observation that you may want to consider, notice that on the 0800 bar on your chart the level was faded for a retrace of about 40pts. This would have been enough to keep me out on the second test especially considering it came roaring back within 2 hours, suggesting that another fade was not a high probability setup. BRV discusses this in his .pdf

Hope it helps.

Dingo
Dingo,

Great observation! You've just reminded me about the content of the pdf. In fact, everything about the died away this 1.6400 is quite expected by the BRV pdf - the so many prior crossings of the S/R and also your point (the prior near-S/R fade). Great!

cheers.



//
Originally Posted by kk007 http://static.forexfactory.com/forex...s/viewpost.gif
A S/R is born.
A S/R gets strong.
A S/R gets old.
A S/R dies.
When I want to use it, it dies away! My 1.6400!
//
  • #12,775
  • Jul 23, 2009 1:35am Jul 23, 2009 1:35am
Quoting dingo432
KK,

Just an observation that you may want to consider, notice that on the 0800 bar on your chart the level was faded for a retrace of about 40pts. This would have been enough to keep me out on the second test especially considering it came roaring back within 2 hours, suggesting that another fade was not a high probability setup. BRV discusses this in his .pdf

Hope it helps.

Dingo
Ditto: that level worked like a clockwork on the first visit, giving a healthy reaction of 40 pips. After that one should look for a decent amount of time/space in order for a second hit to be a high probability setup.

Since the second hit came just about 2 hours later, a breakout was more likely than not.

LJ
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #12,776
  • Jul 23, 2009 1:49am Jul 23, 2009 1:49am
Nice comment, but not quite exactly. The 0800 bar did not touch the original S/R zone, but the bar is close to there. The following comment by great BRV exactly describes this:

If price has already undergone a significant retracement not too far away (20 or less pips appx.) from the level we want to trade. For instance, EUR/USD is in an uptrend. You mark a level at 1.5715. It hits 1.5700 and then retraces down to 1.5670, and then starts coming up again, taking out 1.5700. Your chances of price then making another retracement from 1.5715 have now declined. Look for good spacing between pullbacks, usually anywhere from 40-60 pips on majors.

(extracted from http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=780)


Quoting LeveragedJoe
Ditto: that level worked like a clockwork on the first visit, giving a healthy reaction of 40 pips. After that one should look for a decent amount of time/space in order for a second hit to be a high probability setup.

Since the second hit came just about 2 hours later, a breakout was more likely than not.

LJ
  • #12,777
  • Edited 3:21am Jul 23, 2009 3:11am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting kk007
Nice comment, but not quite exactly. The 0800 bar did not touch the original S/R zone
Well, I dare to disagee.

You should consider the following points (point 1 being the most critical)

1) S/R are zones, not exact number. So when price reacts less the 20 pips off your marked level, you should treat this occurence as if the price had actually reacted AT the level. That is the rationale behind BRV's quoted rule.

2) BRV says also that
Quote
Oftentimes, from our 4hr chart, we will see a “range” of support and resistance, anywhere from 5 – 30 pips. In order to more precisely determine where to enter the trade (it is possible to enter trades with zero drawdown using this method) we will scroll down to a lower timeframe and look at the last few times price used this level.
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...ak-levels.html
In your chart you can clearly see that, in the very last few times, price reacted at a lower level than 6393.

3) regarless of point 2, i think the true BRV's no-brainer level is indeed lower than 6393, for looking at the big picture you have a reaction at 6381 on Jul09 06gmt and at 6383 on Jul01 05gmt. See attached chart for evidence.



Hope this helps

LJ
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1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #12,778
  • Jul 23, 2009 3:14am Jul 23, 2009 3:14am
First, did you see I said "zone" in my last post? "anywhere from 5 – 30 pips" and I taken 7 pips.
Second, it is ok, for different people picked different numbers.


Quoting LeveragedJoe
Well, I dare to disagee.

You should consider the following points (point 1 being the most critical)

1) S/R are zones, not exact number. So when price reacts less the 20 pips off your marked level, you should treat this occurence as if the price had actually reacted AT the level. That is the rationale behind BRV's quoted rule.

2) BRV says also that
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...ak-levels.html
In your chart you can clearly see that, in the very last few times, price reacted at a lower level than 6393.

3)...
  • #12,779
  • Jul 23, 2009 3:55am Jul 23, 2009 3:55am
Quoting kk007
First, did you see I said "zone" in my last post? "anywhere from 5 – 30 pips" and I taken 7 pips.
Second, it is ok, for different people picked different numbers.
Not interested in winning an argument.

My main point here is that, when I see a reaction less the 20 pips off a level, I consider that as being a reaction at the actual level. In this case price reacted at 6387, 4 pips off your marked level. So I personally wouldn't say that the level was not hit (even if, as a matter of fact, price missed your level by 4 pips).

That's just me and my way of dealing with SR. It helps in my decision-making process.

Sorry if this isn't of any help for you.
(I am also a non-native english speaker, so if I sound somewhat rude it truly isn't my intention).

LJ
1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #12,780
  • Jul 23, 2009 4:03am Jul 23, 2009 4:03am
GJ is approaching the 156.37 level again. Last time it hit this level it made a 400 pip move down, so should be good for another move. Volume has also been dropping off on this move up and is reflected in the MACD/Price divergence.


C
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