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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #38,361
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:24am Jul 22, 2009 5:24am
Quoting ghous
Wait till Jon (Gj) reads that.
Hope he does'nt cause i am in the trade
  • #38,362
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:27am Jul 22, 2009 5:27am
Quoting nasir.khan
Hope he does'nt cause i am in the trade
lol, no worries...if it's something besides our traditional trend lines it could well be valid..



Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #38,363
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:29am Jul 22, 2009 5:29am
No worries, as i think Jon/g_j_hook@yah is currently busy smelling the flowers in Holland.
  • #38,364
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:41am Jul 22, 2009 5:41am
Quoting supremeChaos
No worries, as i think Jon/g_j_hook@yah is currently busy smelling the flowers in Holland.
How much time do we have.
  • #38,365
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:50am Jul 22, 2009 5:50am
Quoting TiaForex
...You can't judge the success of a trade by whether it made money or not.

...But the way I approach this is to keep a spreadsheet with various columns detailing different exit strategies, how far the trade went into drawdown after the breach etc so that I can perfect a SL and TP strategy from live data that I have comfort and confidence in.

...After a few months, or whenever I feel comfortable, I will implement this strategy consistently. Spreadsheets with collected data on your live trades really are the most wonderful things...
Good stuff Aaron. I would also add:

You can't judge the success of a strategy (ie, getting out too early) after a few trades.

Which makes it even more important to really analyze our trades (both before and after taking them). Spreadsheets are so awesome! (Yes, I know, I'm a dork). I have 4-5 open at all times to record stuff I'm testing on daily/4hr, stocks/fx, etc...

In the end, it's all about eliminating risk though... B/E trades are considered wins. We must remember that, as frustrating as leaving profits on the table are.

Josh

Side note- I wonder how the results would compare if I ONLY moved s/l at end of timeframe in question... that would have kept me in u/j too... hmmm.... I think it's worth a column in my spreadsheet.
  • #38,366
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:59am Jul 22, 2009 5:59am
Quoting Jduester
Good stuff Aaron....
Great stuff as always Josh.

Just adding to this discussion on spreadsheets and exit columns, the biggest problem I have found is that the exit strategy affects trade selection. So, for example, I have a column for a 2 bar trailing stop on my daily live trade spreadsheet, and it's pretty much useless because that is a tool to be deployed when a trade breaks fast. So I would have taken fewer trades if that was my exit strategy and that can't be reflected on the spreadsheet. In your example, if I was moving stops at the end of the day only I would have stayed out of UJ as first area of trouble was too close. This, in a nutshell, is why Mike is so picky.

Ultimately, if I was looking to only move my stops at the end of the bar then I'd pass on more trades. And in the recent ranging market for example, that would have kept me out mainly. Perhaps that's not bad thing. But I prefer the flexibility to adapt to the market and trade with quick hit targets for those circumstances.

So it's not always easy. And I think this is where you and I differ the most. I can really see the advantages of your fixed R based exit strategy. Takes all the thinking out, and God knows there are times when I wishes I had not had my discretionary attitude to screw things up. But I also believe in adapting to the market and employing a discretionary exit approach.

I have two solutions at the moment. One, suggested by a friend, is to keep a spreadsheet showing what would have happened if I has simply set a 1:1 set and forget SL/TP on the trade and seen which one was hit first. No moving stops, no nothing. The second is to write out an exit strategy for each trade. I don't have to stick to it, but I can see in black and white an "if this then that" strategy. I am little wary of the second one because I do so much paperwork per trade already.

The results so far on the first one have been amazing. Most of my trades, even the quick hitters, gave 1:1. My fear is that if I adopted this, then knowing I had to do it would make me even more gunshy than I usually am. But at the moment this is just an information gathering exercise.

Great to have you back Josh.
  • #38,367
  • Edited 6:15am Jul 22, 2009 6:05am | Edited 6:15am
Hi Guys,

Still quite new to this methodology.

Can the more experienced traders here please comment on whether this is considered a good signal?

Appreciate it plenty. =)

Thanks guys. This thread rocks

Oh. This is GBPJPY btw.
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One Mind, Any Market
  • #38,368
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:23am Jul 22, 2009 6:23am
my gu 4hr...hope enough players on this one.
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #38,369
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:24am Jul 22, 2009 6:24am
Cyrus,
are u asking if that is a (bullish) PB? technically, it is not. the close of that bar was lower than the open (in this case it should've been higher) & the close was lower than the previous bar/s (ideally within the previous bar/s' body)

having said that, this pseudo-PB may or may not go up.

if u haven't already, look for "price action setups", "pin bars intro", "pin bars advanced" in .pdf form, within this thread.
  • #38,370
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:38am Jul 22, 2009 6:38am
Quoting urchman
my gu 4hr...hope enough players on this one.
it all started with this 15 minutes pin bar
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #38,371
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:47am Jul 22, 2009 6:47am
Quoting nasir.khan
I entered long in GU. Entery was based on 1h.

I am anticipating this sHs.
Closed 2 portions on 50% retracement + Shoulder.
  • #38,372
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:52am Jul 22, 2009 6:52am
Quoting supremeChaos
Cyrus,
are u asking if that is a (bullish) PB? technically, it is not. the close of that bar was lower than the open (in this case it should've been higher) & the close was lower than the previous bar/s (ideally within the previous bar/s' body)

having said that, this pseudo-PB may or may not go up.

if u haven't already, look for "price action setups", "pin bars intro", "pin bars advanced" in .pdf form, within this thread.
Chaos, thanks for the comment.
Appreciate it. =)

Am asking cause as I was thumbing through the previous 100+ threads back, I saw some setups being taken although it wasn't strictly bullish PBs.

I saw evening doji star patterns which well, technically, if you squish them into 1 candle, they become bullish PBs.

Little bit confused. Yes, green hammers and red shooting stars, would be the "Textbook" signals I presume?

Thanks for your answers in advance

Cy
One Mind, Any Market
  • #38,373
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:54am Jul 22, 2009 6:54am
im hoping this will be it's beginning
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #38,374
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:10am Jul 22, 2009 7:10am
Cyrus,
yes, there are variations/varied situations wherein bad/poor-looking PBs (or other PA setups) work or good PBs get rejected/reversed/did poorly.
(pretty tough but..) Our task is to be very patient & discerning in that we take only the best we can to minimize losses/increase the probability for profits.

do remember, that shape of a PA setups (PBs, etc) is just 1 of the factors to consider. There is also Location, space, confluence, S/R, etc.. & PA shape is not the most important. if there are only 3 factors to consider (shape, Location, space), i'd say it would be 1. location, 2. space & 3. shape. just my opinion...

Quote
Little bit confused. Yes, green hammers and red shooting stars, would be the "Textbook" signals I presume?
if u mean taking PBs at swing highs & lows, then Yes, swing highs/lows are great places to trade PA setups from.

Hope i tackled them (your concerns) all.
If u are still confused, i bet more charts/screen time will tremendously help.... also looking at/studying the posts&charts of the seasoned traders here.
  • #38,375
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:16am Jul 22, 2009 7:16am
Quoting TiaForex
Great stuff as always Josh.

Just adding to this discussion on spreadsheets and exit columns, the biggest problem I have found is that the exit strategy affects trade selection. So, for example, I have a column for a 2 bar trailing stop on my daily live trade spreadsheet, and it's pretty much useless because that is a tool to be deployed when a trade breaks fast. So I would have taken fewer trades if that was my exit strategy and that can't be reflected on the spreadsheet. In your example, if I was moving stops at the end of the day only I would...
Yes, I know what you're talking about when you say testing different strategies would mean you took some trades and passed on others... exits where you are moving to b/e earlier would allow you to take more trades for example. I've also found this to influence my thinking...
Only solution I've come up with is to have a 'privileged/primary' exit strategy and take/pass on trades knowing you would exit this trade this way... Then at least I'm consistent. The downside is that it doesn't truly test a strategy that takes profits/moves stops significantly differently.

Good point on the moving stops at end of day only... worth testing, imo, but again, it'll be susceptible to the problem mentioned above.

1:1 profit/sl is a great test too... if for no other reason, it lets you know if you are taking good/poor setups over the course of time... plus it's very easy to test... as I say, it's an easy column to fill out, lol.

Josh
  • #38,376
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:18am Jul 22, 2009 7:18am
Quoting TiaForex
Great stuff as always Josh.

Just adding to this discussion on spreadsheets and exit columns, the biggest problem I have found is that the exit strategy affects trade selection. So, for example, I have a column for a 2 bar trailing stop on my daily live trade spreadsheet, and it's pretty much useless because that is a tool to be deployed when a trade breaks fast. So I would have taken fewer trades if that was my exit strategy and that can't be reflected on the spreadsheet. In your example, if I was moving stops at the end of the day only I would...
I find the first S/R point is a good place to take profit whether that be a PPZ, ma or a group of bar high/lows. I think R:R is a bit too rigid.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #38,377
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:22am Jul 22, 2009 7:22am
Quoting TiaForex
...So it's not always easy. And I think this is where you and I differ the most. I can really see the advantages of your fixed R based exit strategy. Takes all the thinking out, and God knows there are times when I wishes I had not had my discretionary attitude to screw things up. But I also believe in adapting to the market and employing a discretionary exit approach.
This is important for all new/inexperienced traders. One must know oneself. I've tried discretionary trading and I've tried very standardized/fixed trading. If you try both, you will find which better fits your personality. You will find pros/cons for either method.
If you don't try both, you may be knocking your head against your desk trying trade in a way you are uncomfortable with. No sense in getting the headache. Yet another voucher for demo/testing before putting real money at risk.

Oh, and great to be back!
  • #38,378
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:29am Jul 22, 2009 7:29am
Quoting tac
I find the first S/R point is a good place to take profit whether that be a PPZ, ma or a group of bar high/lows. I think R:R is a bit too rigid.
I tend to agree I will analyse the trade first with SL, entry, TP (subjective as above) then if the R:R ratio is poor I will consider not entering the trade.

Having said that this is all subjective as I have entered (and won) trades with a R:R ratio of less than 1:1 if the PA and other confluence is strong I won't discount such a trade purely based on a percieved poor R:R

I always set SL,TP and entry based on PA info and never on R:R although R:R maybe a factor in me not placing the trade in the first place if that makes sense!!

Caveat - I'm a newb and still learning so this is only my limited experience talking here.

Fat Tom
  • #38,379
  • Jul 22, 2009 7:32am Jul 22, 2009 7:32am
Quote
.........Oh, and great to be back!

Jduester,
a nice "exchange" with TiaForex that everyone can learn from.
coming back, i bet u are well refreshed
  • #38,380
  • Jul 22, 2009 8:38am Jul 22, 2009 8:38am
I'm looking at these carefully. The shape of the pin of Gbp Usd is attractive, but location maybe is not so good, or not? Instead, i like more the UsdChf BUOB because it is forming at an important PPZ: if it closes above 1.07 i think i'll go long at the break of the bar (ranging market in the last days on this pair).
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