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Peaches`s trading log

  • #321
  • Jul 20, 2009 2:50pm Jul 20, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting peaches
baz, you got it

See this is the 8 th week where access is deneyed to get back in to cloud.

I repeat: kumo cloud break is a vaild trading startegy: Enter short usd/lfx if cloud...
I think, elvis has left the building

It takes 9 weeks of testing, that the break of the weekly cloud is now a solid resistance. So there are only 2 way dollar could go:

1.) sideways
2.) down
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usd.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #322
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:04pm Jul 20, 2009 3:04pm
last week i was bad wrong with main direction of the yen crosses.

My thinking behind a short (here example for geppy) was


- 4 bearish weeks
- a break of tenkan sen
- a break of kijun sen
- a break of upper kumo cloud.

This were absolut good arguments for going short.

Now picture has changed in whole. I am tempted to say, that crisis is over.

Let me explain in next posting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #323
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:10pm Jul 20, 2009 3:10pm
On the daily geppy is below the upper part of the cloud. An upwart break would give chance for free fly for geppy.

But more importence is an entry and break of the lower part of the weekly cloud.

From weekly point of view upper part of cloud is now new resistance. Price has to climb, because on the other hand, the monthly candle has to turn bullish, because if not - the monthly candle would be a monthly reversal candle.

So I`am bullish in the next weeks for resistance and break of upper weekly coud.

Above weekly cloud (or below) ranging the same way we have seen at the usd/lfx.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: geppyweekly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #324
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:15pm Jul 20, 2009 3:15pm
But cad/lfx: wait for daily confirmation of this doji, or wait longer for second entry (double top):
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #325
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:20pm Jul 20, 2009 3:20pm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #326
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:23pm Jul 20, 2009 3:23pm
GU long is good, geppy lomg is good, but IF CAD turns bearish by tommorrow daily end, we have a very nice and save long gbp/cad.

It is a SAVE long, because it happens above the cloud.

But I wait for tomorrows candle.
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  • #327
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:26pm Jul 20, 2009 3:26pm
very interisting last one for today:

We have daily close above weekly cloud, also above monthly kijun seen.

I think eur/usd will rise more, but in future there has to be a time, to test weekly cloud and proof new support.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonth.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #328
  • Jul 21, 2009 12:19pm Jul 21, 2009 12:19pm




Quoting peaches
last week i was bad wrong with main direction of the yen crosses.

My thinking behind a short (here example for geppy) was


- 4 bearish weeks
- a break of tenkan sen
- a break of kijun sen
- a break of upper kumo cloud.

This were absolut good arguments for going short.

Now picture has changed in whole. I am tempted to say, that crisis is over.

Let me explain in next posting.
  • #329
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:04pm Jul 21, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting peaches
Hi jhon,

I`am not that sure anymore on bullish eur/aud. eur/lfx is bullish, but look what different candles on different brokers for eur/aud.

Also watch usd/jpy daily candle, it looks bullish.

The eur/aud weekly is a harami, so I think price might turn bearish during the week.
Hi Peter!

How u doing?

Well, I'm bullish on EurAud yet, I see a bullish divergence on 4h TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On sushi pairs is like I said the other day, bearish

Look UJ weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujd.gif Size: 30 KB


IMHO

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #330
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:06pm Jul 21, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Ok Peter, candle closed now on gopher, pretty bearish hanging man, look:

Attachment

Maybe another test of 92.xx area is most probable

Jhon
I think is very probable this week

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #331
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:46pm Jul 21, 2009 3:46pm
EUR_USD Spot.png

well cant see any danger Signs .......we carry on Up..

baz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #332
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:51pm Jul 21, 2009 3:51pm
EUR_USD Spot.png

4 Hr ..Intresting PA
Notice,price break the Previous ressistance RED LINE...today came down to TEST,and we End up as A pin.....also a bounce of K/S as well..
if it closes above T/S....we go further UP..

baz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD Spot.png Size: 14 KB
  • #333
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:56pm Jul 21, 2009 3:56pm
Quoting baz
EUR_USD Spot.png

4 Hr ..Intresting PA
Notice,price break the Previous ressistance RED LINE...today came down to TEST,and we End up as A pin.....also a bounce of K/S as well..
if it closes above T/S....we go further UP..

baz
This PA is the same as EUR/USD....

GBP_USD Spot.png

baz
  • #334
  • Jul 22, 2009 10:47am Jul 22, 2009 10:47am
Quoting baz
This PA is the same as EUR/USD....

GBP_USD Spot.png

baz
thanks baz

I was a bit disappointed in the last trading days, because I had many trades like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #335
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:30pm Jul 22, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting peaches
thanks baz

I was a bit disappointed in the last trading days, because I had many trades like this:
hi peter,

these are not so bad, the stop out told you at 2 your short was not gonna make it (it was against the trend btw) at 3 it told you, the bulls were weak, ...

in the post from bones, where he draws the ichimoku on gbp, i see the green line crossing below price, price and the red below the blue, it is still in a skew sideways trend on daily, no strong case to go long
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #336
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:47pm Jul 22, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting peaches
thanks baz

I was a bit disappointed in the last trading days, because I had many trades like this:
Maybe you should become a SCalper........die by a thousand swords instead of One...
But we are HTF traders,so untill a TREND develops.....its better to die by one Sword..

Euro still is Bullish at Present..

EUR_USD Spot.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD Spot.png Size: 12 KB
  • #337
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:51pm Jul 22, 2009 1:51pm
EUR_USD Spot.png

this area needs to be taken out with a FORCE.......next 2 days may give the answer


baz
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD Spot.png Size: 13 KB
  • #338
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:43pm Jul 22, 2009 11:43pm
Quoting silverheat
hi peter,

these are not so bad, the stop out told you at 2 your short was not gonna make it (it was against the trend btw) at 3 it told you, the bulls were weak, ...

in the post from bones, where he draws the ichimoku on gbp, i see the green line crossing below price, price and the red below the blue, it is still in a skew sideways trend on daily, no strong case to go long

You got the 2 points, which made the ichimoku picture tase a bit bad.

On the other hand we have candlestick patter hammer, plus we have had last week a fallen volume in a downtrend, so there is a no interest, to move price more lower.

up, then sideway I think.
  • #339
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:49pm Jul 22, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting baz
EUR_USD Spot.png

this area needs to be taken out with a FORCE.......next 2 days may give the answer


baz

eur/usd has tested the level for 2 days, question is, if it is now
a solid support.... If it is, we are going 1,45-1,46.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #340
  • Jul 22, 2009 11:51pm Jul 22, 2009 11:51pm
weekly bullish engulfing is playing out for GU, it is inside weekly cloud.

weekly tenkan sen is support since beginning april.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 17 KB
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