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  • #4,201
  • Jul 20, 2009 10:04pm Jul 20, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting yuan83
Hi strat,

thanks for this thread. I am new to this thread, so should I start to read through from post 1? thanks
Yes, most definitely, and not only READ but also UNDERSTAND
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,202
  • Jul 21, 2009 12:32am Jul 21, 2009 12:32am
Hi Strat and all,

This is only my second post as I'm still going through this thread and J16 and am trying to digest all the info.

As I've seen some of you post USD/JPY charts, I thought I'd post a chart of USD/JPY from my broker and see what you think of my analysis. Your comments will help me see where I'm at and how I am going about learning PASR.

June 20 bar was a shooting star. Price is below Daily 20 and 50 with the 20 acting as resistance. It also coincides with 50% fib. We have been seeing LH and LL since April. Looks like a good short entry below shooting star. But I'd run right smack into 93.90 support. Maybe I should wait for further PA at 93.90?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf USDJPY.pdf   48 KB | 692 downloads
  • #4,203
  • Jul 21, 2009 1:55am Jul 21, 2009 1:55am
Quoting ceva
Hi Strat and all,

This is only my second post as I'm still going through this thread and J16 and am trying to digest all the info.

As I've seen some of you post USD/JPY charts, I thought I'd post a chart of USD/JPY from my broker and see what you think of my analysis. Your comments will help me see where I'm at and how I am going about learning PASR.

June 20 bar was a shooting star. Price is below Daily 20 and 50 with the 20 acting as resistance. It also coincides with 50% fib. We have been seeing LH and LL since April. Looks like a good short...
Hi Ceva
Strat won't be up for a while but this trade looks really good to me and the level you are bouncing off is much stronger than the one you are selling into. I went short last night, I see this going back to test the lows.
  • #4,204
  • Jul 21, 2009 2:34am Jul 21, 2009 2:34am
Quoting strat
Yes, most definitely, and not only READ but also UNDERSTAND
thank u. i m sure wit ur help i will understand wad i need
  • #4,205
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:17am Jul 21, 2009 3:17am
usdyen - I'm looking at short too. I'm troubled by any correlation with the equities though. The yen usually weakens when equities rally (carry trade to borrow cheap and finance long positions in other markets). So does this mean that people are paying back their yen and selling shares - will there be a fall in equities? Or is there a 2 week lag on usdyen?

Or should I just bin all that funnemental 'rubbish' and just trade what I see on the charts? (Come on Nic, tell me!!)

Anyway - I'm long equities on the BUOB on the weekly FTSE/DOW and short usdyen on the S/Star - I have the feeling this is not a pairs trade to be in??
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #4,206
  • Jul 21, 2009 6:07am Jul 21, 2009 6:07am
Quoting Grimweasel
usdyen - I'm looking at short too. I'm troubled by any correlation with the equities though. The yen usually weakens when equities rally (carry trade to borrow cheap and finance long positions in other markets). So does this mean that people are paying back their yen and selling shares - will there be a fall in equities? Or is there a 2 week lag on usdyen?

Or should I just bin all that funnemental 'rubbish' and just trade what I see on the charts? (Come on Nic, tell me!!)

Anyway - I'm long equities on the BUOB on the weekly FTSE/DOW and short...
I think the correlation of weak equities / strong yen still holds.
I'm too chicken to get into equities at this point, it has to consolidate soon. One of your trades should win ... if your wins are always bigger than your losses ...
  • #4,207
  • Jul 21, 2009 10:41am Jul 21, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Grimweasel
usdyen - I'm looking at short too. I'm troubled by any correlation with the equities though. The yen usually weakens when equities rally (carry trade to borrow cheap and finance long positions in other markets). So does this mean that people are paying back their yen and selling shares - will there be a fall in equities? Or is there a 2 week lag on usdyen?

Or should I just bin all that funnemental 'rubbish' and just trade what I see on the charts? (Come on Nic, tell me!!)

Anyway - I'm long equities on the BUOB on the weekly FTSE/DOW and short...
Danny boy, you are THINKING too much - just trade what your charts tell you otherwise you will think and talk yourself out of every trade you see.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,208
  • Jul 21, 2009 12:46pm Jul 21, 2009 12:46pm
TRADING IS SIMPLE – IT IS TRADERS WHO MAKE IT DIFFICULT

I’m always amazed how charts grab everyone’s attentions whereas in actual fact, it is the words which are far more powerful.

“What the hell is he on about now?” I hear you moan into your haggis sandwich.

Go back to my post # 4195 showing how a very simple trade produces 100 pips.

I defy anyone to show me a more simpler trade. Let’s dissect it.

We had a double bottom at support. It then produced a BUOB/Hammer – it doesn’t matter what you call the darn thing. The point is, it produced a TRIPLE BOTTOM which tested AND PROVED the support for the THIRD time.

Now the next part is the difficult part. That last bar is 143 pips meaning that your SL will be 150 pips or so. If you cannot afford this, you have two choices:

(1) Reduce your $/pip to a level your MM allows
(2) Do not take the trade.

You need confidence in trading so you do whatever you have to do to take the trade. How can you learn to swim if you never get your feet wet?

So, you place your buy order a few pips above the BUOB/Hammer high. Remember, the bar showing PASR is your SET UP bar NOT your trigger. We ALWAYS want to be trading WITH price momentum. If price doesn’t go up, we don’t want to be in the trade.

Next day, you get up early and the first thing you do, even before going for a pee, is check your charts. BIG MISTAKE. Keep your normal routine – do not allow the pressure of ANY trade to change your routine.

As the sweat drips off your forehead, your sweaty hands manipulate the keyboard and, “Joy to the World”, you are filled and better than that, you are already in PROFIT.

It is at THIS POINT where we, the trader, complicate it. We are not used to profit; we can handle losing but profit, that’s something new. THIS IS WHERE IT ALL GOES WRONG.

THIS IS WHERE EMOTIONS TAKE OVER AND CONTROL YOU AND THEREFORE YOUR TRADE.

Let me repeat that:

THIS IS WHERE EMOTIONS TAKE OVER AND CONTROL YOU AND THEREFORE YOUR TRADE.

You see the profit, you are not used to it. You have illusions of grandeur. The little man in your head starts to work overtime. He tells you to get out quick because it may not go up any further and is only a temporary profit. You resist this first approach and walk away from your charts and start making coffee. While making coffee you can’t stop thinking about your profit. Maybe the little man was right – better go back and check the charts. No, the profit is still there but then the little man taunts you even more, “It’s going to go down and you know it, you dumb shit, what are you waiting for, get out while you still have some pips”.

You try and remember Strat’s teachings so you find the strength to pull away from the charts and get on with the breakfast. But no matter what you do, you can’t stop thinking about your profit. Now you’ve burnt the toast because you had to take another look at the screen. The little man is now screaming at you, your head is whirling, you are sweating like you’ve never sweat before.

I’m in profit for the first time in a long time and I’d better not screw this up you think to yourself. You run for the computer and with a sigh of relief, you see it is still in profit. The little man starts telling you that your time is running out. The longer you leave it, there is less time to get out with a profit and you don’t want to turn this into another loser. Wait a minute, a bright idea comes into the excuse of a brain between your ears, “I’ll check H4, that should tell me something”. You switch time frames to H4 and, “Oh no, it’s going down, get out NOW while you still have some pips, NOW, NOW, DO IT, DO IT”.

You close the order and get out with a few pips profit and feel good that at last you managed a trade to profit and with a skip in your step go to work. You feel good all day because NOW, you are a REAL trader, you can take on all the forex world.

Then you get home and check the charts. “What”, you scream at the screen, “you’ve still gone up – I saw you GOING DOWN”.

OK, I think you all get the message and have been there or are still there.

Let’s go back to the point where we recognized the BUOB/Hammer creating the triple bottom.

The VERY FIRST thing we do is calculate HOW MUCH CAN WE LOSE? We did this with our SL. We don’t want to miss this opportunity so we adjust our $/pip value to accommodate our MM guidelines.

We are now formulating our PLAN

We are an ABSOLUTE RAW BEGINNER so are only going to do what Strat said:

Trade from support/resistance to the 1ST LEVEL OF DAILY RESISTANCE/SUPPORT.

We don’t care how many pips this is, we just want the practice to do this over and over and therefore build our confidence.

We don’t worry about where Weekly resistance/support is, we are only going to trade to the 1ST DAILY level.

We identify the 1ST level on our charts, 94.16 – NOTHING ELSE.

We will TAKE PROFIT at this 94.16 level AND NO MORE.

So, on this USDJPY trade, we place our buy order at 93.16

We check the charts, we got filled and we don’t worry or care what price will do because we have an accepted and trusted PLAN. We place our TP order at 94.16 and WALK AWAY and get on with our routine.

At the end of the day, we check our charts. The profit objective has not been reached. We don’t care, we are covered whether it goes up, down or sideways and we have nothing to do so we WALK AWAY.

At the end of the next day, we check our charts. We are closed out with 100 pips profit. We WALK AWAY and mow the lawn.

After you have done this a few times, you begin to think it really is easy and you decide to go for more pips. Trouble is, you don’t know where to go for more pips and the little man and your emotions take over control AGAIN.

This is where I strongly DISAGREE with those threads, forums and people who promote daily targets of “xxpips”. You can only take what the market has on offer or what the market gives you. If the market is flat, then how can it give you “xx pips”? It cannot and you will put yourself under great stress and pressure trying to get blood out of a stone. The more you are under pressure (stress) the more mistakes you will make and the more you will lose. The more you lose, the further away your daily “xxpips” becomes because now you have incurred a day or so of losses.

Forget about daily or any other time based targets or any other pip targets. You do not need that pressure (stress). Instead, just relax, trade what you see. If you don’t see anything, get on with your routine/life.

Pip targets of any sort or type are ONLY for those who are trading for the game thrill or adrenalin rush. They don’t really care whether they win or lose. Mostly they lose but they are not in it for the money, although they will try and tell you they are. They are only in it for the THRILL.

Of all the Professional traders I know, or have known, not one of them had a daily or other time based target – not even the Money Managers!

My personal style is to trade when there are opportunities and do something else when there are none. Yes, I go through weeks where I don’t trade or make many trades but when the markets are moving and giving us opportunities, I am like a rampant 18 year old stud at a hen party night out!

Let’s go back to how you can be very successful just trading from support/resistance to the 1ST DAILY level of resistance/support.

It does not really matter how many pips you make doing this. What you must achieve is the consistency of doing this on each and every opportunity you see. Resist the temptation to go for more pips, just keep doing the same old thing. In a short time, your account will have grown to the point where you can increase your $/pip value. Without changing anything else, keep doing this over and over ad nauseum and you will be very successful. You don’t need to worry about trends, just where the 1ST level of DAILY support and resistance is. What you do need is PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE but then we ALL need that to be successful.

So, to summarise, the SIMPLE trade is from support/resistance to the 1ST level of DAILY resistance/support. Keep doing this over and over until your piggy bank over floweth. The DIFFICULT part is telling the trader inside you that IT REALLY IS THIS SIMPLE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,209
  • Jul 21, 2009 2:07pm Jul 21, 2009 2:07pm
Just learned something new in MT4

If you want to see your past trades on your charts, go to Account History and drag the particular trade onto your chart, providing of course you are showing the correct pair on your chart.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,210
  • Jul 21, 2009 2:26pm Jul 21, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting strat
TRADING IS SIMPLE – IT IS TRADERS WHO MAKE IT DIFFICULT...
Thanks a lot Strat!
  • #4,211
  • Jul 21, 2009 2:46pm Jul 21, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting strat
TRADING IS SIMPLE – IT IS TRADERS WHO MAKE IT DIFFICULT...
Is there an Absolute Beginner out there who has read all the thread AND understands PASR, has the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE and has a REAL, LIVE account (not demo) who volunteers to do this by posting their trades live on here?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,212
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:03pm Jul 21, 2009 3:03pm
Nice article - I can relate to that.
How do you determine your 1st level of s/r and daily s/r?

Thanks
Quoting strat
TRADING IS SIMPLE – IT IS TRADERS WHO MAKE IT DIFFICULT...
  • #4,213
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:10pm Jul 21, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting svirgo
Nice article - I can relate to that.
How do you determine your 1st level of s/r and daily s/r?

Thanks
Go to the top of the page. Look to the right. Find the box that says "Page 281 of 281". Find the box that says "First". Click on "First". Read the FIRST post on the FIRST page. When you understand the FIRST post move onto the second post. Keep repeating until you reach "LAST" post.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,214
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:23pm Jul 21, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting strat
Go to the top of the page. Look to the right. Find the box that says "Page 281 of 281". Find the box that says "First". Click on "First". Read the FIRST post on the FIRST page. When you understand the FIRST post move onto the second post. Keep repeating until you reach "LAST" post.
Hi Strat,

I ve expected reply like that,I ve been reading your thread for last two months so what else to expect.I like your sense of humor,if I could I would give you that 10th remaining voucher for that,but not only for that,of course.Still more than 100 pages to go and still learning PASR from J16,as you recommended.

Can't stop laughing.
  • #4,215
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:31pm Jul 21, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting Paddyp
Hi Strat,

I ve expected reply like that,I ve been reading your thread for last two months so what else to expect.I like your sense of humor,if I could I would give you that remaining 10th vouch for that,but not only for that,of course.Still more than 100 pages to go and still learning PASR from J16,as you recommended.

Can't stop laughing.
Like I said, I need balance in my life - lots of pips and lots of fun - one without the other makes Jack a dull and boring boy. PLUS, I have no patience for people who are not prepared to put in their own hard work and study and are always looking for shortcuts. They are the people who find a stethoscope, put on a white coat and call themselves a Doctor!

Thanks for the offer of my 10th vouch but I would gladly swap it for helping you become a successful and profitable trader.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,216
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:06pm Jul 21, 2009 4:06pm
Yes,that is another thing,I 'd like to thank you for teaching me as well.

You know,I decided to trade daily only due to my work and found out that it is really stressfree.I'm still at work typing this ,checking my charts.My broker's just closing daily bar.

I started last year on 1 hour,then I moved to 4 hour ,which I like,but I can get all the info on daily with less stress,rather with no stress.And this is what I like most.

I know it looks like I ve been lurking here but I didn't wanna post before I read all the thread through.

Thank you again.
  • #4,217
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:14pm Jul 21, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting strat
Is there an Absolute Beginner out there who has read all the thread AND understands PASR, has the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE and has a REAL, LIVE account (not demo) who volunteers to do this by posting their trades live on here?
Despite how much you don't like it (), i can show how everything on here can be translated to any timeframe you like, but not much daily action for me...
  • #4,218
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:51pm Jul 21, 2009 4:51pm
Hello Strat
What is your trade on USDJPY? It looks like inside bar / hammer but the nose is not very long in compare to previous bars. It should be more like EURNZD BEOB I think. I like your style but there is couple of points that Im not getting.
At first every broker has different daily close {mine at 11pm CET} so daily bars will be different. What is the optimal daily close? In fact I have never had the same trade as you had becouse of this.
The same problem is with volume , I compare couple of brokers and I found no correspondense so I would not like to rely on this "indicator".
Last question, do you calculate RRR before you take the trade? For example on USDJPY trade you would bet 140 pips to get maybe 100 pips {first resistance} ?
Thank you
alter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #4,219
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:52pm Jul 21, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting AstonDan
Despite how much you don't like it, I DON'T, i can show, NO THANK YOU, THIS THREAD IS FOR TRADING THE DAILY AND HIGHER TIME FRAMES, how everything on here can be translated to any time frame you like, but not much daily action for me...that's because you have stopped looking!
The SHORTER the time frame:

The LESS RELIABLE are the technicals

The LESS RELIABLE is PASR

The LESS is the pip return for the amount of time invested in analysis

The LESS is the pip return for the actual time in a trade.

However, YES, there are some MORE aspects:

MORE time needed to watch the one eyed monster

MORE stress

MORE noise

MORE thrills and adrenalin rush

MORE probability of screwing up

MORE addictive to gaming than trading

MORE likely to move to the next shorter time frame

MORE demand on your lifestyle

In my 17 years+ trading, I have traded 76 tick charts, 110 tick charts, 230 tick charts, 550 tick charts, M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts.

I still may not be qualified to offer an opinion but for me, trading the Daily and higher charts are BY FAR, the MOST profitable for the LEAST amount of effort with the LEAST amount of pressure and stress.

Q.E.D.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #4,220
  • Jul 21, 2009 5:14pm Jul 21, 2009 5:14pm
Strat - thanks for the replies again.

BUEB and BUOB - I would imagine we would only take these at SR levels with fib confluence much the same as we would trade a hammer?

Just because we have a BUOB at the top of a channel this wouldn't be a signal bar for a long entry would it?

Not traded them before and I have been looking at them on my demo account. Same with BEOB and BEOB?

Managed a small live trade today and resisted the temptation to look at it until 2200 UK time (when my charts daily bars change over) so I fully support your comments about checking trades intraday - very dangerous and a breech of the plan; tantamount to not REALLY being comfortable with the risk. When adding limits too there is NO stress. Ideal trading. Needed to prove to myself that I could stick to the plan with live cash (albeit not much at all , but better than just demo cash)


AstonDan - come back to us!!! - I have lost thousands of pounds too down there below the daily TF before I found this thread - it's not worth the stress/hassle; I can confirm - down there are too many ponds with big Pike waiting to swallow you up (MMs, Hedgies, Scalpers etc) and we (retail guys) have NO competitive advantage down there with those 'pond-life' - not for me - ever-EVER again.
Trade less and become more profitable!
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