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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #38,041
  • Jul 20, 2009 6:51am Jul 20, 2009 6:51am
Quoting kk007
Dear all,

I am watching james16.com videos and I am very confused about this one. Why is the pinbar "very nice", when there was a S/R acting against it and limiting the possible profit target for a trade using the Pinbar.

Hope someone may help.

cheers,

kk
If you post the link to this page, I'll take a look....I'm not sure where that chart is, or even what pair?

GregB
  • #38,042
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:00am Jul 20, 2009 7:00am
Quoting kk007
Thanks tac, If I do what you said, there is another PPZ worry me. Am I too conservative?
Any PA setup is always going to be speculative. But by doing careful analysis of the chart you improve your chances of picking the ones with the BEST potential.

In this case the overall long-term trend is down, there are always retracements against the trend so I tend to look for those PBs that reflect a failure to go against the trend. This is exactly one of those. Price has tried to force its way past the 150 but had failed bigtime. The minor PPZ just below shows, if you like, the hesitancy of the bulls in taking the move higher. It's a signal that you can look for when trying decide if a PB has merit.

If you have your MM set correctly then if the PB fails then you should have only lost 1%. If you have concerns then just get to BE as price gets to that minor PPZ. One thing you'll learn, over time, is that sometimes you just have to go with your analysis and take the knocks. As your skills improve your ability to pick the good trades will improve and you'll know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

Nothing wrong in being cautious but you have to go with the flow sometimes.
  • #38,043
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:02am Jul 20, 2009 7:02am
Quoting batesmotel
I made the plunge with AUDUSD long... So far, so good...But I only nibbled with 1%...if it runs, I'll be S.O.L. on full position....

GregB

PS I'm still liking the 2 week PB on EJ...PA has now broken PB...time to make a decision...
Nice one Greg . What does S.O.L. mean?

A question I have relating to TF, how hard is it to trade the 4hr when you work 9-5, but can scan the charts a few times from work and enter trades? Or is it best to stick to daily? Seems a lot less hassle, just checking charts in the evening and maybe a quick glance now and again at open positions.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #38,044
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:03am Jul 20, 2009 7:03am
Quoting kk007
Thanks a lot Ghous,

This is important:

"but anybody who's been doing this stuff for quite some time now would know that the underlying ppz (which BTW was not immediately in the way) was no way a reason to give up on the setup "Given that all the other factors were so damn strong"

That is something I want to dig into to understand. I know you are quite experienced. Would you mind elaborate this a bit? What/Why is it "damn strong"?

kk
Right first of all I am not as experienced as many others here.

But what I can advise you to do is to let this thing come naturally to you.

I'll tell you what I did when I was new. Jarroo helped me blow up quite a few demo accounts and more importantly I blew my confidence in the method, The great man probably doesn't even know about it nor do most of you here.

I would see his charts, admire his abilities on taking less than A+ setups and how he would ride on $'s back with these mediocre PA setups...

This is what I thought..."When Jim can do it so can I"

Got myself a demo account and started thinking like "jarroo" probably would...instead of focusing on hitting a few good trades a month I started to actually look for less than A+ setups (without any initial intentions of doing so, just a detrimental "carry away") and guess what 2 months later I found myself exactly where I began...or rather a few miles behind where I started in that I had lost the confidence I had begun with...

The point I am trying to make is, the more you deviate from what your'e supposed to be doing depending on the level you're on the more time and confidence (and possibly money) you waste.

Trust me on this kk this it will come to you. Just focus on the three prime factors for now...

1) Shape
2) location
3) space

As you start pouring setups into these three moulds you'll see how with time you can set off with that "AHA" feeling while very few on the thread will even consider the setup in the A catagory.

Just Jog along your learning curve,
Because you can see your destination ahead you must not get carried away and attempt to try and run into your goal. Let the goal come to you.

I am no where near where i want to be but the "little" traveling has taught me so much I would rather be shot dead than try and speed up the learning process.

Just sayin...

PS abt your question on "Why so damn strong" I guess Peter explained it better than I could ever have...

Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #38,045
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:21am Jul 20, 2009 7:21am
Quoting tac
Nice one Greg . What does S.O.L. mean?

A question I have relating to TF, how hard is it to trade the 4hr when you work 9-5, but can scan the charts a few times from work and enter trades? Or is it best to stick to daily? Seems a lot less hassle, just checking charts in the evening and maybe a quick glance now and again at open positions.
I've decided to stick with Daily and weekly only (at least until I become a full time trader)....I guess 4hr can be managed, but you really need to monitor your trade every 4 hours...at least I do....which means I have to get up in the middle of the night interrupting precious sleep time (I have a hard time getting back to sleep)...For me that is dangerous since I'm on the road driving during business hours (with my portable internet!).

Also, you will be surprised how often there is confluence with an important trade decision and a "too busy at work to monitor trade" period...

GregB

PS although, I may open a separate demo account for the 4hr TF and just take the primo setups....plug in my order, TP's and SL's and let it run..."Set and Forget"...if that goes well, then I might consider 4hr TF....
  • #38,046
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:58am Jul 20, 2009 7:58am
Thanks for all great persons on this thread for responding.

Thanks PeterFM, I have read your thread for newbie back a few months ago.
"there are always retracements against the trend so I tend to look for those PBs that reflect a failure to go against the trend"
I haven't seen it as a retracement... thanks

"The minor PPZ just below shows, if you like, the hesitancy of the bulls in taking the move higher."
I like this comment. Yes! For the PPZ that I marked, the resistance has never turned into a support.

Thanks ghous,
Thanks for the sharing of your story.
"But what I can advise you to do is to let this thing come naturally to you."
"Let the goal come to you."
I smell that this comment contains wisdom. Very "Zen" indeed .

This is what I thought..."When Jim can do it so can I"
"Trust me on this kk this it will come to you."
Very encouraging words. Many thanks, ghous.
  • #38,047
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:01am Jul 20, 2009 8:01am
Quoting batesmotel
I've decided to stick with Daily and weekly only (at least until I become a full time trader)....I guess 4hr can be managed, but you really need to monitor your trade every 4 hours...at least I do....which means I have to get up in the middle of the night interrupting precious sleep time (I have a hard time getting back to sleep)...For me that is dangerous since I'm on the road driving during business hours (with my portable internet!).

Also, you will be surprised how often there is confluence with an important trade decision and a "too busy at...
Cheers Greg,

I'm beginning to think that anything less than daily requires either working from home or trading full time. I'm a little worried that dailies wont have enough setups to build my account to the point where I can go full time, maybe Ill have to save for a few years on top of building the account.

Regards

Tac
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #38,048
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:13am Jul 20, 2009 8:13am
kk007,
hope u are getting more a-ha moments & feel the "fireworks in your mind", more like the one shown here by ghous (during the 1000th page milestone of james16 thread; 1000th page base on default settings)



Quote
If you post the link to this page, I'll take a look....I'm not sure where that chart is, or even what pair?
batesmotel,
it was the $jpy H4 chart, Nov.4,2008 (IBFX chart)
  • #38,049
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:32am Jul 20, 2009 8:32am
Quoting tac
Cheers Greg,

I'm beginning to think that anything less than daily requires either working from home or trading full time. I'm a little worried that dailies wont have enough setups to build my account to the point where I can go full time, maybe Ill have to save for a few years on top of building the account.

Regards

Tac
I started with this post on July 10th 2009 (10 days now, including week-ends) and I've taken 5 trades so far. I got taken out at BE on the GY (I made maybe 1/8%) and I am managing the other 4 trades at the moment. 3 of the 4 trades are risk free at the moment, and my AUDUSD long was just taken, so we'll see how that one goes.

If I was trading 2% risk on each trade, I'd be up approx 2% on profit taken, and it looks like I'm up approx +3% on the trades I'm presently managing. I could see these 4 trades yielding at least 5% if things go well.

So, I haven't had any losers YET, but I'm sure they will come....but if the above is any indication, I think we can find 1 or 2 nice PA setups per week on the daily/weekly TF's. If we can bag 1% average off of all the winners, we should be able to average 5%-10% monthly....we'll see...

GregB
  • #38,050
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:39am Jul 20, 2009 8:39am
Quoting batesmotel
I started with this post on July 10th 2009 (10 days now, including week-ends) and I've taken 5 trades so far. I got taken out at BE on the GY (I made maybe 1/8%) and I am managing the other 4 trades at the moment. 3 of the 4 trades are risk free at the moment, and my AUDUSD long was just taken, so we'll see how that goes.

If I was trading 2% risk on each trade, I'd be up approx 2% on profit taken, and it looks like I'm up approx +3% on the trades I'm presently managing. I could see these 4 trades yielding at least 5% if things go well.

So, I haven't...
Nice..I guess looking at other markets like commodities, futures, stocks etc would provide even more opportunities for daily.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #38,051
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:41am Jul 20, 2009 8:41am
Quoting tac
Nice..I guess looking at other markets like commodities, futures, stocks etc would provide even more opportunities for daily.
You read my mind exactly!

GregB
  • #38,052
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:59am Jul 20, 2009 8:59am
Has eu exhausted its potential for today...?
Quite possible, we shall see.
Attached Image
  • #38,053
  • Edited 10:00am Jul 20, 2009 9:33am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting kk007
Dear all,

I am watching james16.com videos and I am very confused about this one. Why is the pinbar "very nice", when there was a S/R acting against it and limiting the possible profit target for a trade using the Pinbar.

Hope someone may help.

cheers,

kk
Well, I'm not going to second guess the master....so I may be biased because he recommended this short (Nov. 4th, 2008)

But I have to agree with J16...there is virtually no traffic to contend with....the PB (a beauty PB!) has closed below the 150 ema and a minor ppz....and the hi of this candle has apparently bounced just off the edge of the hot zone of the resistance level at 101.79 (pinky shaded area on either side of resistance level)...some nice confluence. I don't see any support until the 97.11 weekly support (now resistance in Jul 2009).

You could have easily gotten your 1:1 before those 2 ugly reversal PB's 4 bars later...It looks like you may even have survived the assault on your BE SL and possibly could have rode this puppy risk free on 2nd half of the position all the way down to 97.11.

I also have noticed the violent reaction forming this bearish PB when traders finally realized that this swing high has overshot the 61.8% retrace of the seemingly 4hr down trend. Perhaps that can account for the forming of the 2 bullish PB's 4 bars later (right off of the 61.8% retrace swing high)

Notice the nice long opportunity as the UJ bounced right off of the 97.11 support forming another nice PB...

GregB
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  • #38,054
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:48am Jul 20, 2009 9:48am
raczekfx,
Most likely, albeit temporarily, i guess.
maybe re-visit 1.41 - 1.4150 area prior trip to 1.46 - 1.47 (pause at 1.44 - 1.45 area along the way)?
my wild thinking... at play (not at work)

anybody knows when this week's US corporate earnings' reports specifically start? i guess, probably later today or tomorrow (Tuesday)...
[This reports mainly affected markets last week, so probably the same theme this week]
  • #38,055
  • Jul 20, 2009 9:59am Jul 20, 2009 9:59am
Quoting supremeChaos
raczekfx,
Most likely, albeit temporarily, i guess.
maybe re-visit 1.41 - 1.4150 area prior trip to 1.46 - 1.47 (pause at 1.44 - 1.45 area along the way)?
, you really believe Europe is free of issues? Its banking system is in much, much worse shape than its counterpart in the US. We have to wait and see, but let the charts be our guide...lol

couple more... and got to run
Attached Images
  • #38,056
  • Jul 20, 2009 10:23am Jul 20, 2009 10:23am
raczekfx,
oooops, my idol speaks, directly replying to my post.
that made my day. hahah

I read the news, but I have very little knowledge about europe/US's current banking issues (so i dont know which of the two is worse), so im just looking at the charts.
Probably would be an interesting week.

I have a 1.4350 PPZ, & a 1.4230 minor PPZ. if we cant pass those with ease, then i'll 'construct' a possible re-visit scenario to the sub-1.40's.
  • #38,057
  • Edited 11:02am Jul 20, 2009 10:44am | Edited 11:02am
Hmmm, I'm contemplating this possible dblhc on AUDCAD.

Confluence: 23.6% with 50% retrace swing lows. bounce off of 89.64 weekly support. We'll have to see where today's daily bar closes. There is a 5 pip differential on lows though...

I don't see any traffic until the 0.9087 minor resistance level...

NZDCAD is shaping up the same way...

Any comments?

GregB
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  • #38,058
  • Jul 20, 2009 11:04am Jul 20, 2009 11:04am
Quoting fat_tom
kk007,

I have to agree with you... not that I am in anyway experienced like a lot of guys here and I don't play 4hr timeframes yet but I would be looking at that area as a first TP or at least a suitable place to move SL to BE.

but I'm just a newb so my opinions probabely don't count for much!!

Fat Tom
This is exactly it Tom. The idea is, be aware of these areas. You then make a decision accordingly. For me if I am strongly confident in the area and bar, then I will let the trade run more and trail. But the less strong an area I will do "something" at these PPZs S/R areas.
  • #38,059
  • Jul 20, 2009 11:07am Jul 20, 2009 11:07am
A Double PB With OverBought Area. Any Comments ?

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #38,060
  • Jul 20, 2009 11:08am Jul 20, 2009 11:08am
Thanks batesmotel,

Do you really think the PPZ marked as minor (This one is orginally marked on the video)?

I personally don't think it is that minor. And it worries me. Yes, one solution is to short just below the PPZ and a bit worsen the R:R.

Nevertheless, to me, a very nice setup is one makes me no worry.

I have this problem probably because I am not experienced with this kind of scenarios.

For the senior members, like James and PeterFM, it may be obvious that the PPZ can be easily broken, (when they look at the bigger picture, perhaps) and so they can say it is "very nice".

cheers,

K.K.




Quoting batesmotel
Well, I'm not going to second guess the master....so I may be biased because he recommended this short (Nov. 4th, 2008)

But I have to agree with J16...there is virtually no traffic to contend with....the PB (a beauty PB!) has closed below the 150 ema and a minor ppz....and the hi of this candle has apparently bounced just off the edge of the hot zone of the resistance level at 101.79 (pinky shaded area on either side of resistance level)...some nice confluence. I don't see any support until the 97.11 weekly support (now resistance in Jul 2009)....
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