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AUD/USD

  • #1,741
  • Jul 18, 2009 10:44pm Jul 18, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting fammira
if you went long on monday I am sure you are in a very good position, use trailing stops and you will be just fine
I think so too. I'd like to see it get back under .7980 or so first though. But it looks poised to go long. Good luck.
  • #1,742
  • Jul 19, 2009 12:42am Jul 19, 2009 12:42am
Good morning. I posted these comments in another thread. Just some thoughts.

I’ve calculated the yearly ranges for this pair from 2000-2008 and the average yearly range comes out at 1,543 pips. The range for 2009 so far has been 2,015 pips (low of 0.6248 and high of 0.8263) so it was nearly 500 pips over and above the average yearly range for the last nine years when it hit 0.8263. The range for 2008 (which was way above average) was 3,841 pips though.

If you look back at your daily chart, on 26th July 2007, a carry trade unwind started (if I remember correctly). The high was 0.8867 that day and, after some consolidation for about 10 days, it continued to the downside and by 17th August 2007, the low hit was 0.7673 giving a range of nearly 1,200 pips.

On 22nd July 2008, the downtrend started again and the pair never really looked back till it hit the bottom on 27th October 2008.

I’m not saying history is going to repeat - just something to keep in mind since we are nearing those dates again.

Also, take a look at this week's candle. Is that considered a BUOB (bullish outside bar/bullish engulfing)? Oh, and the average weekly range for the last 8 weeks (since we started this consolidation) has been 327 pips (if that helps). The weekly looks bullish to me but I'm wobbling on the daily and the AUD likes to take a bath on a Monday (more often than not lately) and cleanse itself of weak longs.

I have a question though for those mathematicians out there. Is 9 years of yearly data an acceptable period of time to calculate an average yearly range?

Good trading to all
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,743
  • Jul 19, 2009 1:40am Jul 19, 2009 1:40am
Quoting Patience
Also, take a look at this week's candle. Is that considered a BUOB (bullish outside bar/bullish engulfing)? Oh, and the average weekly range for the last 8 weeks (since we started this consolidation) has been 327 pips (if that helps). The weekly looks bullish to me but I'm wobbling on the daily and the AUD likes to take a bath on a Monday (more often than not lately) and cleanse itself of weak longs.
I believe the bullish engulfing pattern has more significance if it comes at the end of a rally down in price. That said, flag patterns like the one emerging on the weekly charts don't usually signal trend reversals. However, as fammira has pointed out, RBA has been supressing prices beyond .80.

So I don't know that chart patterns on longer TF are as reliable now.

While interesting, I'm not sure what to make of the yearly ranges on this pair.
  • #1,744
  • Jul 19, 2009 4:21am Jul 19, 2009 4:21am
Quoting Magic Trader
So I don't know that chart patterns on longer TF are as reliable now.
Does look like it is readying itself for another leg up. Hard to see what will stop it apart from a carry trade unwind/risk aversion/weak indices. I'm not sure how much an interest rate cut would affect it either.

Not too worried about RBA intervention, they'll run out of ammo at some stage. I watched the RBNZ get bulldozed in 2008 a few times. It was just futile. I think I'm more concerned about the range it has already done. Removing 2008 from the equation the average yearly range for 2000-2007 was 1,200 pips. But I know we are not in normal times. I am USD bearish long term though, just pondering if we have come too far too fast .... or if the US$ really is in the toilet ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,745
  • Jul 19, 2009 8:00am Jul 19, 2009 8:00am
I would be happy for a pullback Monday or Tuesday on AUDUSD, for me to get in long for my next CIT at the end of the week.
  • #1,746
  • Jul 19, 2009 5:28pm Jul 19, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting Patience

Oh, and the average weekly range for the last 8 weeks (since we started this consolidation) has been 327 pips (if that helps). The weekly looks bullish to me but I'm wobbling on the daily and the AUD likes to take a bath on a Monday (more often than not lately) and cleanse itself of weak longs.

I have a question though for those mathematicians out there. Is 9 years of yearly data an acceptable period of time to calculate an average yearly range?

Good trading to all
Hi Patience, Brilliant thoughs and well written analysis but for the math thingy im out of that league may be others can answer you and here my opinion on AUD for this week:

http://img30.picoodle.com/img/img30/...nm_48d9bfa.png

Last week she(aud) travel aroud 350 pips between high and low, i expecting the same movement for this week so with the price now around 0.8050 and 0.8000 im expecting high of 0.8200 and low around 0.7850.
Price action exhibit various pattern developement from king's crown, wedge or triangle and channel (chart), hopefully i can milk more pips or more from it.
  • #1,747
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:02pm Jul 19, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Magic Trader
I believe the bullish engulfing pattern has more significance if it comes at the end of a rally down in price. That said, flag patterns like the one emerging on the weekly charts don't usually signal trend reversals. However, as fammira has pointed out, RBA has been supressing prices beyond .80.

So I don't know that chart patterns on longer TF are as reliable now.

While interesting, I'm not sure what to make of the yearly ranges on this pair.
Hi Magic Trader,

Chart pattern and fundamental is going hand in hand in my opinioin(imo), as Mr,Soros wrote on his theory of reflexifity " The participant's biased perceptions influence market prices and market prices can influence the fundamentals. The illusion that markets manage to be always right is caused by their ability to affect the fundamentals that they are supposed to reflect. The change in fundamentals may then reinforced the bias expectations in an iniatially self-reinforceing but eventually self-defeating process".

The data on chart last week 350 pips move it is encouraging, fundamentals positive as china growth underpinned aussie and what i want to see is the markets participants (you and us) biased expectations, will we push higer for another 350 pips up?

Is it make lot of CENTS?
  • #1,748
  • Jul 20, 2009 1:32am Jul 20, 2009 1:32am
I woke early and exited at .8010 now I will wait until it settles as I think you are right with a higher move. There seem to be not resistance to higher comododies and higher AUD.
  • #1,749
  • Jul 20, 2009 5:11am Jul 20, 2009 5:11am
Quoting ben10
here my opinion on AUD for this week
Hey Ben

Looking good. Cor, it didn't feel like taking a bath today, dang, not even a shower. I've still got a soldier out there but it's low leverage so not bothered. If it continues to power on all week, it could try for the 61.8% monthly fib that I've got at 83.81 . Week beginning 31st May it did 378 pips, 7th June - 410 pips and I've got last week's range at 370 pips.

I like to look at the USDX chart a lot and have based quite a few of my trades on how it is looking.

Good trades

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-4 HOUR-20JUL.PNG Size: 73 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,750
  • Jul 20, 2009 6:41am Jul 20, 2009 6:41am
Sorry about my ignorance, but can anybody tell me how I can open this US Dollar index to show a chart in my Meta Trader 4 platform?

I've searched all the charts and it's not there, I'm with ODL brokers.

Thank you in advance.

Reza.
  • #1,751
  • Jul 20, 2009 6:49am Jul 20, 2009 6:49am
Ouch! limit short 0.8100 taken and waiting for confirmation to deploy more troops
  • #1,752
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:34am Jul 20, 2009 7:34am
Oz should find restance at 82.40 to 82.68 Resisting bear line from March 10.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 190 KB
  • #1,753
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:09am Jul 20, 2009 8:09am
Quoting 95ford
I woke early and exited at .8010 now I will wait until it settles as I think you are right with a higher move. There seem to be not resistance to higher comododies and higher AUD.
Good move! 10 pips is 10 pips.

I'm angry at myself. Had .8150 as major resistance on my chart and didn't put a sell order in.
  • #1,754
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:22am Jul 20, 2009 8:22am
Quoting fatboy1234
Sorry about my ignorance, but can anybody tell me how I can open this US Dollar index to show a chart in my Meta Trader 4 platform?

I've searched all the charts and it's not there, I'm with ODL brokers.

Thank you in advance.

Reza.
Hi Reza

I don't know if any Meta Trader 4 Platforms have it - I know that my FXPro Demo MT4 doesn't. Maybe somebody else can answer that question but you can go to Netdania.com in the meantime.

Cheers
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,755
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:22am Jul 20, 2009 8:22am
Quoting forextaboo
Oz should find restance at 82.40 to 82.68 Resisting bear line from March 10.
I'm right there with you. I got next major resistance at 82.75. And then huge resistance at 83.70.

Nice to see your indicators confirming that
  • #1,756
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:23am Jul 20, 2009 8:23am
Quoting Magic Trader
Good move! 10 pips is 10 pips.

I'm angry at myself. Had .8150 as major resistance on my chart and didn't put a sell order in.
oanda also did not taken my limit at that price sh!t me too
  • #1,757
  • Jul 20, 2009 8:46am Jul 20, 2009 8:46am
Quoting ben10
oanda also did not taken my limit at that price sh!t me too
Let's try again at .8145. I think that levels going to hold a bit more.
  • #1,758
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:33pm Jul 20, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Let's try again at .8145. I think that levels going to hold a bit more.
its taken now and im happy
  • #1,759
  • Jul 20, 2009 7:44pm Jul 20, 2009 7:44pm
if she hold above 0.8100 im not happy

http://img27.picoodle.com/img/img27/...am_fb657ad.png

im expecting price fall below that channel.

so far price travel 180 pips this week and if the bull momentum to be continued we will see 0.8350
  • #1,760
  • Jul 21, 2009 4:44am Jul 21, 2009 4:44am
Not a great deal of trending today. It seems like it might have taken a new level of support, from .8010 to .8030. Wondering if we'll find resistance again at 81.80.

I'm leery of putting any more sell orders in this trend. May be best to try and buy at .8010. Seems headed to .8200, don't you think ben10?
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