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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #37,921
  • Jul 18, 2009 4:17pm Jul 18, 2009 4:17pm
naked charts are the best way to go, a chart tells you all you need to know.
RSI, stochs, MACD, EMAs, SMAs are all lagging indicators, they can only tell you what happened in the past.
  • #37,922
  • Jul 18, 2009 7:07pm Jul 18, 2009 7:07pm
Hi Everyone:

I'm contemplating a long AUDUSD off of the weekly chart.

What I see on the chart is a weekly BUOVB that has bounced off of a weekly support level (confluence with 23.6% retrace swing low)and has closed above a monthly reistance level at 0.7985.

There does seem to be some traffic to plow thru though (including a possible descending TL).

However, on the daily chart , there is a nice flag pattern forming with plenty of confluence responsible for last weeks bounce off of the 0.7753 weekly support level.

If the PA breaks last weeks high it would also break the upper edge of the daily flag pattern.

Any critiques of my analysis would be appreciated!

GregB
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  • #37,923
  • Jul 18, 2009 7:39pm Jul 18, 2009 7:39pm
Of course, one could also be on the side of the bears... In between the 50%-61.8% swing high...hmmm...but PA is still telling me go long to the 1st target @ 61.8% swing high at 0.8392.

GregB
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  • #37,924
  • Jul 18, 2009 7:53pm Jul 18, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting batesmotel
Of course, one could also be on the side of the bears... In between the 50%-61.8% swing high...hmmm...but PA is still telling me go long to the 1st target @ 61.8% swing high at 0.8392.

GregB
The R/R could be better for a long if you take the trade at the break of the bullish outside bar. I like a long position here though. I would watch for a break of the BUOB and hope that a retrace to 50% of the bear takes place for a better R/R trade. If it takes off and doesnt retrace then it's just a trade I missed. I do think it's headed for .8350 though.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #37,925
  • Edited 8:43pm Jul 18, 2009 8:02pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting KissFan
The R/R could be better for a long if you take the trade at the break of the bullish outside bar. I like a long position here though. I would watch for a break of the BUOB and hope that a retrace to 50% of the bear takes place for a better R/R trade. If it takes off and doesnt retrace then it's just a trade I missed. I do think it's headed for .8350 though.

K.I.S.S.
Perhaps I will take a nibble with 1/2% risk on the break and if we get a retrace after the break I can always add on to the position at resistance turned support level at 0.8000

It seems that we also have AUD strength against the EUR (2 day candles) in order to confirm general AUD strength.

Actually, a short on the EURAUD (bi-weekly scalp for 160 pips....is there such a thing?) looks very attractive...target 1 = support @ 1.7312

Oops...lol...I'm already short EURAUD and in profit ....up +300 pips....I guess I just confirmed my short position (or add on perhaps?). It certainly does look like a fine PB though...

GregB
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  • #37,926
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:38pm Jul 18, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting StoragePro
Good lord. If you have nothing to do, stop by and wash my windows. What are you losing anyway? I had an MCSE, MCSD, and MCT. Pfft. The gleam was off those certs a loonnnggg time ago. Just like a VCP cert is now suffering from.

You are about a 6hr drive away I may take ya up on that lol Naa just doing cooking now and having a good time with it. Curry is this weeks spice
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #37,927
  • Edited 3:33am Jul 19, 2009 2:41am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting batesmotel
Hi Everyone:

I'm contemplating a long AUDUSD off of the weekly chart.

What I see on the chart is a weekly BUOVB that has bounced off of a weekly support level (confluence with 23.6% retrace swing low)and has closed above a monthly reistance level at 0.7985.

There does seem to be some traffic to plow thru though (including a possible descending TL).

However, on the daily chart , there is a nice flag pattern forming with plenty of confluence responsible for last weeks bounce off of the 0.7753 weekly support level.

If the PA breaks last...
I personally would not take the weekly bar, there is a PPZ at 8200 that goes back a few years. Also it seems to be in traffic rather than at an extreme low. The daily I4B looks like better from a stop size, it could go to long to 8200 or short to 7800, then a good break out or back to 8000. Just my 2p.
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I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,928
  • Jul 19, 2009 2:56am Jul 19, 2009 2:56am
Quoting bakko85
I took this one too Ghous IPB rules
Do you think it could go down more than the nose of the IPB?
Hey Bakko, yeah it sure could happen, these can work as good reversal bars too...

The more active trading sessions on Monday will narrate the story

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #37,929
  • Jul 19, 2009 2:59am Jul 19, 2009 2:59am
Quoting batesmotel
What I see on the chart is a weekly BUOVB....
GregB
It's always good to see folks really reading the material Greg.

I remember laughing like crazy when I saw the comment "Bullish Outside Vertical Bar? Are there ever any HORIZONTAL ones?"...LOL

Good job on the reading sir and as for your analysis, I agree with KissFan.

BTW, those are some of the purttyest charts I've ever seen...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #37,930
  • Edited 3:13am Jul 19, 2009 3:00am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting arcus
Hi ghous,

I had Q(s) about this kind of trading style. Do you still take the trigger bar (the indecision bar, IPB) if it high is lower than the previous bar or in other word, it formed inside the previous bar given it formed in good PPZ with confluences.

Thanks bud.
Yup any PA bar could have worked on a location this great...

Again the PA bars are less important than the location over which they occur.

So although my trigger was merely just an indecision bar the great location gave it the weight worthy of a trade.

Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #37,931
  • Jul 19, 2009 3:28am Jul 19, 2009 3:28am
Quoting forexngo
Hey Ghous and experienced fellows.

Is it the nice IPBs & be expecting to go up...or it will breaks the lower trendline soon? Since i see it closed below the nice round number of 2.040 and seems ....the end of inversed flag pattern...and start to breakout?
How you guys for your pro. analysis!
Thank you
forexngo
Hi Fxngo,

The evidence of a ppz is clear and the IPB seems to have formed on the 50 fib too. however PA on this pair recently has been very choppy with lot's of whippy tails around and the IPB leaving a good southern tail gives more of an indecision kind of look than a solid bullish signal.

Won't call it a "no trade" though but not in the A+ zone for sure...

Regards,
Ghous.
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #37,932
  • Edited 6:25am Jul 19, 2009 3:41am | Edited 6:25am
I'm slowly making my way through the thread and learning loads from all the regular posters circa end of 2006, seems like people like Mike,Bundy and Habeeb, SeekingLight and of course Jim where trading good style, excellent charts (even a few days before xmas!!). i know Bundy and Mike still post but what about Habeeb?, he seemed to have it down good style also.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,933
  • Jul 19, 2009 4:35am Jul 19, 2009 4:35am
Ill be trading the daily charts for the next 3 months (at least). I have around 26 charts to trade from (Forex and Gold/Silver). Ill be using a tiny account on Oanda which I for me is demo.

There are two ways I could tackle marking up my charts with PPZ's.

1. Starting with the monthly drawing the most obvious PPZ on full history of chart, then going to weekly and doing the same, and then daily the same.

2. As above with monthly but as I move down, only focus on areas where price is around at the moment.

I think I can do the first in a few hours and its done once with only some updates now and again.

What do you guys think?
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,934
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:12am Jul 19, 2009 6:12am
Quoting ghous
Hi Fxngo,

The evidence of a ppz is clear and the IPB seems to have formed on the 50 fib too. however PA on this pair recently has been very choppy with lot's of whippy tails around and the IPB leaving a good southern tail gives more of an indecision kind of look than a solid bullish signal.

Won't call it a "no trade" though but not in the A+ zone for sure...

Regards,
Ghous.
Hey Ghous,

Finding your chart is so nice & clear..so i am aping setting up my chart to yours
In my chart..i see the IPB is better that not much choppy with whippy tails. And i found the weekly support and 50% fibo, plus trendline...as a strong confluence. But what i am confusing is that the price now is completed F Wave of Inversed Flag Pattern...so it may break at this point?

i am finding this J16 method is the great and sticking to play this price of action as the best method...but, to be honest...i am still confusing on how to play it. For example...when finding the PB with good location plus some confluence, i enter my sell/buy stop 5pips from high/low of the PB as rule....but usually the price goes up/down to my entry and triggered the order..then go back to the other direction....so the problem is i must be incurred loss for a long time before price come back to the right direction.
That s the big problem for time waiting the order triggered and so long time been in loss before take profit and a huge stoploss to play

If you have any better way of playing Pb to instruct
Also...i am intending to join pf...but afraid that all the info. in this thread not yet comprehended....then the new source of info. from pf...woh

Thank you Ghous for your kind heart
fxngo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,935
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:18am Jul 19, 2009 6:18am
Quoting albchr
It's always good to see folks really reading the material Greg.

I remember laughing like crazy when I saw the comment "Bullish Outside Vertical Bar? Are there ever any HORIZONTAL ones?"...LOL

Good job on the reading sir and as for your analysis, I agree with KissFan.

BTW, those are some of the purttyest charts I've ever seen...
Lol....they look like "girly" charts to me....I just haven't had the time to set up a new colour scheme...Thanks for the encouragement also.....

GregB
  • #37,936
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:19am Jul 19, 2009 6:19am
Anyone watching the Open? Its only 50 miles from where i live, would be good to see Watson win at his age.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,937
  • Edited 6:51am Jul 19, 2009 6:39am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting forexngo
i am finding this J16 method is the great and sticking to play this price of action as the best method...but, to be honest...i am still confusing on how to play it. For example...when finding the PB with good location plus some confluence, i enter my sell/buy stop 5pips from high/low of the PB as rule....but usually the price goes up/down to my entry and triggered the order..then go back to the other direction....so the problem is i must be incurred loss for a long time before price come back to the right direction.
That s the big problem for time...
Yes, I hate that....more often than not, the PA bounces right off of your entry point...you need patience and gonads of iron to wait for the sucker to get back into profit.

What I do many times is that I will nibble at the initial entry at break of hi/low with 0.5% risk.....then I will keep adding on to my position as is retraces my initial entry position....That way I can average my entry price and beat the dreaded retrace.

The risk you take though, is that your pair will run on you right away and that you will profit, but only on your small initial position size. The advantage is you average your entry and get an overall better price entry....also, your risk is smaller if you actually do get stopped out.

Greed and Fear....you just can't beat them...You can only try to refrain from entertaining their devilish temptations...

GregB
  • #37,938
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:57am Jul 19, 2009 6:57am
Quoting forexngo
Hey Ghous,

Finding your chart is so nice & clear..so i am aping setting up my chart to yours
In my chart..i see the IPB is better that not much choppy with whippy tails. And i found the weekly support and 50% fibo, plus trendline...as a strong confluence. But what i am confusing is that the price now is completed F Wave of Inversed Flag Pattern...so it may break at this point?

i am finding this J16 method is the great and sticking to play this price of action as the best method...but, to be honest...i am still confusing on how to play...
Hi fxngo,

I understand your frustration, drawdown is a part of trading, and it can be annoying especially if it retraces beyond 50%, however you can also wait for the retrace and enter then making your stop smaller and profit bigger. The downside to that is you might miss trades that shoot off the bat.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,939
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:19am Jul 19, 2009 7:19am
Quoting tac
Anyone watching the Open? Its only 50 miles from where i live, would be good to see Watson win at his age.
About 10 miles from me!!!

but nah... don't mind playing golf but watch it? nope!!

Maybe I'll get more into it at somepoint!!!
  • #37,940
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:26am Jul 19, 2009 7:26am
Quoting fat_tom
About 10 miles from me!!!

but nah... don't mind playing golf but watch it? nope!!

Maybe I'll get more into it at somepoint!!!
I'm the opposite, ill watch but don't play (did in the past) might get round to it also. I only really follow the majors, and watch the last few days after the cut.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
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