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  • #1,721
  • Jul 16, 2009 7:18pm Jul 16, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting ashkan
thanks for your reply but when?

next monday?

u mean i should keep this sells?
absolutely and add more short if the price in the range 0.8000 - 0.8300
  • #1,722
  • Jul 16, 2009 7:20pm Jul 16, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting Xaron
No, I don't think so.
and your reason?
  • #1,723
  • Jul 16, 2009 7:42pm Jul 16, 2009 7:42pm
expecting "M" formation on three hours chart and i am expecting 5 more candle to the down side ,add more short above 0.8000 below 0.8150.

support @ 0.7950 and if the price travels south toward resistance @ 0.8150 it would form double top then and i would to double my short position

note: over the weekend i will re-analyse my short position
  • #1,724
  • Jul 16, 2009 8:06pm Jul 16, 2009 8:06pm
pure price analysis 50 pips(take profit) here and there :

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/...fm_e238e55.png

remember aud still in ranging play
  • #1,725
  • Jul 16, 2009 8:09pm Jul 16, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting ben10
here the news said that RBA to keep aud/usd around 0.8000:

http://www.dailypfennig.com/
Thanks for sharing the news ben10. My question is: if RBA is pushing prices down from .8000, who's driving them up there? Certainly not you and I.

BTW, .8090 looks like solid resistence and should be good for a short-term play.
  • #1,726
  • Edited 9:17pm Jul 16, 2009 9:01pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Thanks for sharing the news ben10. My question is: if RBA is pushing prices down from .8000, who's driving them up there? Certainly not you and I.

BTW, .8090 looks like solid resistence and should be good for a short-term play.
AUD is very very equity related, just compare S&P and AUD and you will notice a very similar trend

RBA is on the market, but can't control the market.
Also, RBA and any central bank don't aim at making profits on the forex market but to balance economy and currencies.

When sentiment is positive and risk appetite increases, AUD uses to overperform other currencies.
Also, stronger economy or forecasted recovery generally pushes oil prices higher; and AUD benefits from higher commodities prices (gold and oil in particular).

RBA is selling the rallies because a strong currency would stall exports and could put a brake to the awaited economic recovery.
This does not mean RBA will always sell the rallies in the future, I think we will see new highs next year if economy really improves, but for the moment AUD may be well capped close to his highs or not very far above them.

It's hard to exclude a shot to 0,82 - 0,83 or maybe even higher with positive sentiment and big companies beating earning expectation and improving their guidance for the next quarters, but for now it would still make sense to sell the rallies, just like RBA does

I was expecting a strong US dollar this summer but maybe we'll see more upside in EUR,GBP and AUD before a real pullback.
For the moment we are still in the higher part of the 0,70 - 0,80 range, I still think it's better to use the fast and continous ups and downs to make buy and sell trading.
I'll wait for a new clear trend to emerge to make position trading.
  • #1,727
  • Jul 16, 2009 10:30pm Jul 16, 2009 10:30pm
It should be down unless it gets to 8120 or so..
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  • #1,728
  • Jul 17, 2009 12:07am Jul 17, 2009 12:07am
Quoting fammira
It's hard to exclude a shot to 0,82 - 0,83 or maybe even higher with positive sentiment and big companies beating earning expectation and improving their guidance for the next quarters, but for now it would still make sense to sell the rallies, just like RBA does

I was expecting a strong US dollar this summer but maybe we'll see more upside in EUR,GBP and AUD before a real pullback.
For the moment we are still in the higher part of the 0,70 - 0,80 range, I still think it's better to use the fast and continous ups and downs to make buy and...
If I'm reading the charts right, a big downturn would take us to .7500 and then perhaps to .7000? So it might be a good idea to take positions at .81, .82, and .83. I can definitely see a sharp downturn if it reaches the .83 level again. Is this how you're seeing this fammira and ben10?

In the meantime, I'll continue trading the continuous ups and downs but more likely the downs as I can't seem to pinpoint where current support is at.

Thanks for all the fundamental analysis. I'm definitely more PA but need to keep an eye out for the long term trends.
  • #1,729
  • Edited 1:47am Jul 17, 2009 12:40am | Edited 1:47am
Quoting Magic Trader
If I'm reading the charts right, a big downturn would take us to .7500 and then perhaps to .7000? So it might be a good idea to take positions at .81, .82, and .83....
yes magic, that's how I see things at the moment


we might shift the trading zone upside to 0,78 - 0,85 but upside shall be contained by 0,82 - 0,85 in my opinion

of course I might be very very wrong
  • #1,730
  • Jul 17, 2009 8:44am Jul 17, 2009 8:44am
aussie ranging for 30 minute just below .8010 (1minute chart)
  • #1,731
  • Jul 17, 2009 8:52am Jul 17, 2009 8:52am
Quoting ben10
aussie ranging for 30 minute just below .8010 (1minute chart)
oh shes falling ..... finger cross (position 0.8010 x 2)

http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/...um_6ef534b.png
  • #1,732
  • Jul 17, 2009 9:29am Jul 17, 2009 9:29am
good trading ben

It seems to me that market is poised to move on a higher trading range, probably next week?
  • #1,733
  • Jul 17, 2009 6:43pm Jul 17, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting fammira
good trading ben

It seems to me that market is poised to move on a higher trading range, probably next week?
Buongiorno mio amico ,

if i look from a different angle the short also possible or perhaps im biased toward falling price becouse i had short/sell position.
here is the king's crown chart pattern:

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/...nm_05eac99.png

and here the fundamental news:

http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency_currents
  • #1,734
  • Jul 17, 2009 7:06pm Jul 17, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting ben10
Buongiorno mio amico ,

if i look from a different angle the short also possible or perhaps im biased toward falling price becouse i had short/sell position.
here is the king's crown chart pattern:

http://img37.picoodle.com/img/img37/...nm_05eac99.png

and here the fundamental news:

http://www.blackswantrading.com/currency_currents
hi ben!

you might be right, but look at the power of buyers, it still looks to me like the market is still buying on dips
last Monday I was almost scared when I bought at 0,7750....and look now

so I think we will shift above 0,80 next week

I am flat on this pair at the moment, long Cable and USDCAD.
wish you good pips, by the way cover your shorts with hedge or stop at entry, I smell more upside...when there's enthusiasm and everyone will be bullish, that will be a good time to sell

Have a nice weekend, see you all next week!
  • #1,735
  • Jul 18, 2009 4:20am Jul 18, 2009 4:20am
I am worried I am short at .8020 do you think I should exit if you are thinking higher 80'S
  • #1,736
  • Jul 18, 2009 5:41am Jul 18, 2009 5:41am
Quoting 95ford
I am worried I am short at .8020 do you think I should exit if you are thinking higher 80'S
We'll have to see how it opens after the weekend. I would not be too comfortable right now though.

If you can stand to hang in there if prices reach .8100 (which I think we might see Mon/Tue) then you should be able to get out under .8000. Or you could take second positions at .8050 or higher.

I don't think a big break is too far off. The good news, it's looking more like it'll be downwards than up.
  • #1,737
  • Jul 18, 2009 5:49am Jul 18, 2009 5:49am
Quoting fammira
you might be right, but look at the power of buyers, it still looks to me like the market is still buying on dips
last Monday I was almost scared when I bought at 0,7750....and look now

so I think we will shift above 0,80 next week

I am flat on this pair at the moment, long Cable and USDCAD.
wish you good pips, by the way cover your shorts with hedge or stop at entry, I smell more upside...when there's enthusiasm and everyone will be bullish, that will be a good time to sell
you are right on the money, fammira. the people are buying earlier and earlier on the dips. soon they'll just be buying period.

i am flat too but I'll probably short at .8100. We should all be licking our chops if it should get to .8300.

have a good weekend, all!
  • #1,738
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:56am Jul 18, 2009 11:56am
Hi Guys

I am fairly new to trading AUD USD, howver been trading currencies for a round 5 years. From my analysis, i have a high point due either Friday 24th July or Monday 27th.

I went long Monday as my H4 charts gave me my refined entry, but my cycle analysis told me the low was due around that day (+/-1 day). I would not be surpised if we break 0.8262 next week, but we will then be in the zone to start thinking of a decent sell if we do. On the H4 charts i use BB and Rsi limits for entries and link those into to market matrix solution (repeating cycles), and we still have plenty of room above to go higher.

Good luck
  • #1,739
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:14pm Jul 18, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting 95ford
I am worried I am short at .8020 do you think I should exit if you are thinking higher 80'S

don't worry mate, I am sure next week you will have chance to exit with a good profit

I have just expressed my idea according to what I saw during last sessions.
At the moment for me this pair is in a no trade zone, cause I would like to see lower prices to buy and higher prices to short.

This does not mean that fast in and out trades can't be successfull

If the market will shift to a higher trading zone, it could make a false move and then go up.False moves are very common in the forex market....

I really don't know if I may be right but if that will be the case on Monday or Tuesday we might see a false downmove of 50 - 100 pips before higher.

If you are uncertain like I am at the moment, protect yourself with a stop at entry or close to your entry level, this way you won't need to worry at all.

I can't follow the market tomorrow, wish you all a safe and fruitful trading!
  • #1,740
  • Jul 18, 2009 9:17pm Jul 18, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting stallionez
Hi Guys

I am fairly new to trading AUD USD, howver been trading currencies for a round 5 years. From my analysis, i have a high point due either Friday 24th July or Monday 27th.

I went long Monday as my H4 charts gave me my refined entry, but my cycle analysis told me the low was due around that day (+/-1 day). I would not be surpised if we break 0.8262 next week, but we will then be in the zone to start thinking of a decent sell if we do. On the H4 charts i use BB and Rsi limits for entries and link those into to market matrix solution...
hi stallionez

if you went long on monday I am sure you are in a very good position, use trailing stops and you will be just fine
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