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No Brainer Trades

  • #12,681
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:01am Jul 17, 2009 1:01am
Quoting bumasoft
Heavy pressure on the trendline, nice bounce from H4 resistance, price under an H4 wave Fib level, pending a downside breakout. Looks like a no brainer to me. The daily also shows very good resistance at 1.4155 and 23.6% Fib.

Update: Hehe, I think I got suckered with this one ... Or not :-| ... -12 pips currently, but if 1.4165 holds, I may still have a chance.
Still in this short since yesterday. +17 pips currently. My TP is at 1.4091 (was missed by 2 pips).
  • #12,682
  • Edited 1:41am Jul 17, 2009 1:27am | Edited 1:41am
Obvious one..there is a daily TL in the vicinity as well...

Pls critique if any contrary views.

edit - more fib support if draw from the bottom low on the chart...
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  • #12,683
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:54am Jul 17, 2009 1:54am
7849 on the daily..criticism?
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  • #12,684
  • Jul 17, 2009 3:24am Jul 17, 2009 3:24am
Quoting jones247
Am I reading BRV's performance, as reported on post #1 correctly? Are all of his trades winners? He mentioned that trading S&R wins about 90% of the time. I suppose the negative numbers represent the maximum drawdown of pips, while the numbers to the far right reprsent the number of pips won on that trade...

Am I off base here...

thanks,

Walt

Hi Jones,

I am completely convinced that what have been said on Post#1 is factual, but you have to pay attention to details.

"With most of these trades you could at least scalp for 20 pips, others have paid out hundreds of pips."
"A static stop loss of -40 pips"
"Spreads are not taken into account for any of these trades as they vary from broker to broker..."

If you take profit with 20 pips, and set a static stop loss of -40 pips (and assumed that there is no spread), the winning rate is almost 90%. You can check this out yourself with the information there.

If you read the posts on this thread back for the last few months, someone with short experience can about achieve this performance.

But if you look for catching those trade with hundreds of pips rather than just 20 pips, I am not sure the success rate.

kk007
  • #12,685
  • Jul 17, 2009 6:32am Jul 17, 2009 6:32am
Yeah, that wedge formation was quite nice. I could not watch what was happening, but now as I am back. I took short position on cable after prioce broke 1.6285, then tested it from bellow and moved down again. so, I am short on Cable and I also have limit order at 1.6265. If things go my way, I am going to take partial profis at 1.6250 and move stops to B/E.
Support 1.6227 and all this area has been very hard on short trades so, I am planning to try and see if price will move there.
  • #12,686
  • Jul 17, 2009 6:34am Jul 17, 2009 6:34am
Cause it is Friday, position is rather small. I am risking just 0.1% I am mostly trying to manage trade properly.
week was good.
  • #12,687
  • Jul 17, 2009 7:42am Jul 17, 2009 7:42am
closed at B/E at few pips just before news.
  • #12,688
  • Jul 17, 2009 7:58am Jul 17, 2009 7:58am
If you take profit with 20 pips, and set a static stop loss of -40 pips (and assumed that there is no spread), the winning rate is almost 90%. You can check this out yourself with the information there.

If you read the posts on this thread back for the last few months, someone with short experience can about achieve this performance.

But if you look for catching those trade with hundreds of pips rather than just 20 pips, I am not sure the success rate.////////


Exactly, but here is one omission. When you take trade and sit in trade which can make 100+ pips, by this time you can make a lot of +20 pips trades with high probability. Results mighht be even better with just +20 pips profit per trade.
  • #12,689
  • Jul 17, 2009 8:33am Jul 17, 2009 8:33am
Quoting shiko
Exactly, but here is one omission. When you take trade and sit in trade which can make 100+ pips, by this time you can make a lot of +20 pips trades with high probability. Results mighht be even better with just +20 pips profit per trade.
This now points to the obvious, doesn't it? Take the trade and at 20 PIPs, remove 80% of your lots, move stop to breakeven to protect your profit and leave the remaining 20% in for the long run to 100 PIPs, or stop-out at break even. Modify this basic methodology as you see fit.

SR
  • #12,690
  • Jul 17, 2009 9:50am Jul 17, 2009 9:50am
Quoting dingo432
Obvious one..there is a daily TL in the vicinity as well...

Pls critique if any contrary views.

edit - more fib support if draw from the bottom low on the chart...
Well done if you managed to sneak in to this one at the front end, you were much closer than me as I was waiting for 16245ish.
  • #12,691
  • Jul 17, 2009 11:02am Jul 17, 2009 11:02am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright I am currently up about 70 pips putting me well above 1 to 1 in my risk...so when the time is right and the charts tell me to protect profits I will do so...

Attachment
Alright I just woke up and I was stopped out with 45 pips....I was bitt more agressive with my stop due to price action
  • #12,692
  • Jul 17, 2009 11:24am Jul 17, 2009 11:24am
Here is a sweet bearish Gartley on the USDJPY 1H chart this morning. Confluence with earlier fractal base and the Bucket Bottom too. I would rate this as SBR, 79, R, S, BB, FB G.

SR
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  • #12,693
  • Edited 11:49am Jul 17, 2009 11:43am | Edited 11:49am
in fact, 90% win rate is meaningless - you have to consider the RR (reward-to-risk) ratio as well

example:
90% win rate of SL 40 TP 20 i.e. RR of 1:2 or 0.5:1 gives you 140 pips in 10 trades
on the other hand...
50% win rate of SL 40 TP 80 i.e. RR of 2:1 gives you 200 pips in 10 trades

therefore, win rate has to be considered together with RR ratio, sometimes a lower win rate gives better results

in extreme case, a 99% win rate system can be a total failure in the long run - for instance some martingale system can blow your whole account with that 1% of losing trades


if your trading method is good (like the support and resistance approach being taught here), you then have to find a trade management strategy that gives good pips historically (obtaining the parameters through back test and forward test) and fits your personality - some pay prefer steadier equity growth, while some may prefer higher theoretical return but with more drawdown
  • #12,694
  • Jul 17, 2009 11:52am Jul 17, 2009 11:52am
Quoting seattlerust
Here is a sweet bearish Gartley on the USDJPY 1H chart this morning. Confluence with earlier fractal base and the Bucket Bottom too. I would rate this as SBR, 79, R, S, BB, FB G.

SR
  • #12,695
  • Jul 17, 2009 1:03pm Jul 17, 2009 1:03pm
This now points to the obvious, doesn't it? Take the trade and at 20 PIPs, remove 80% of your lots, move stop to breakeven to protect your profit and leave the remaining 20% in for the long run to 100 PIPs, or stop-out at break even. Modify this basic methodology as you see fit.

SR////


This is actually an excellent idea.
I tried, closing only half of my position, but it is not good. I thing 1/5 of the position to let it run is a way better.
  • #12,696
  • Jul 17, 2009 9:46pm Jul 17, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting seattlerust
Here is a sweet bearish Gartley on the USDJPY 1H chart this morning. Confluence with earlier fractal base and the Bucket Bottom too. I would rate this as SBR, 79, R, S, BB, FB G.

SR
he said fractal, mmmm
  • #12,697
  • Jul 17, 2009 10:12pm Jul 17, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting seattlerust
Here is a sweet bearish Gartley on the USDJPY 1H chart this morning. Confluence with earlier fractal base and the Bucket Bottom too. I would rate this as SBR, 79, R, S, BB, FB G.

SR
Thanks for posting...that's nice
  • #12,698
  • Jul 17, 2009 10:18pm Jul 17, 2009 10:18pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Well done if you managed to sneak in to this one at the front end, you were much closer than me as I was waiting for 16245ish.
I was done early for the day by then, but would have missed it anyway. My plan was that if I chose to enter at the early level 6258 I was going to enter just 1pt in front so I could get a reasonable stop in below the next levels. Would have expected it to travel a bit lower than it did after the 6283 swing low was broken.....nice result if anyone got on board though
  • #12,699
  • Jul 17, 2009 10:33pm Jul 17, 2009 10:33pm
hi all,

i m new to this thread but this is really all about S R as no brainer as that? so what TF do you all work on? at least H1? or must it be higher? this system allow for counter trend trading also I suppose? thanks
  • #12,700
  • Jul 17, 2009 11:40pm Jul 17, 2009 11:40pm
Talking about rating setups, I found this in Sam Seiden's newsletter. It was a few issues back. I modifiyed what he said slightly.

When to buy or sell:

A pullback in price to demand (support), or supply (resistance). Don't chase price!


Probability enhancers:

1) In an trend
2) With a risk/reward of at least 3:1
3) A quality level

a. Strong move in price from support or resistance suggesting a big supply/demand imbalance
b. A level that has not been retested yet which offers the greatest odds
c. A level that is near larger time frame level
d. A level that is a pivot low, well placed on the larger supply/demand curve

4) Is the decline or rise in price to the level a stair step decline suggesting a low odds buy or is the decline a sharp drop in price to demand suggesting a much higher odds buying opportunity

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