Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
james16 Chart Thread
Hiya,
I've been nursing my GBPCAD trade, which I took off of the weekly PB as per the chart below.
I see today's daily bar was pretty much an inside bar. (2nd chart)
Would it be sensible to use that to add on to my position on a break down below it?
There are all those highs in the slightly blue shaded areas, but I'd consider todays IB a bounce off of those, I would think that a break below would take out that support area. In any case would look to get my 2nd position to breakeven once / if price is in that blue area, or at the very latest when it hits those tops in the yellow elippses (sic.???)
After that trail stop and hope it gets down to 1.78/1.77
I've been nursing my GBPCAD trade, which I took off of the weekly PB as per the chart below.
I see today's daily bar was pretty much an inside bar. (2nd chart)
Would it be sensible to use that to add on to my position on a break down below it?
There are all those highs in the slightly blue shaded areas, but I'd consider todays IB a bounce off of those, I would think that a break below would take out that support area. In any case would look to get my 2nd position to breakeven once / if price is in that blue area, or at the very latest when it hits those tops in the yellow elippses (sic.???)
After that trail stop and hope it gets down to 1.78/1.77
- #37,805
- Edited 8:24pm Jul 16, 2009 7:38pm | Edited 8:24pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Norman | 296 Posts
Hiya,
I've been nursing this GBPCAD trade, which I took off of the weekly PB as per the chart below.
After that trail stop and hope it gets down to 1.78/1.77
I too am nursing this GBPCAD into a healthy profit....but I feel that there is some major bullish pressure coming soon....I'm just waiting for a reversal signal bar to drop my SL down to...We have a major support level at 1.8245 which just happens to be a 50%/61.8% swing low confluence in a seeming up-trend.
I'm looking to cover my short on the slightest hint of reversal....anyways, I have 1/2 of my position taken off...
Although....it would be nice if this puppy could bust thru the support at 1.8245 and test the Lower Up channel TL at approx. 1.8000. If it could bust thru there...well, then we're home free until 1.7511.
Also, if you will notice the last candle....it is outside the shaded 5ema channel (on the hi & lo)....this is a strong "Rubber Band Man" warning...:nerd:...we shall see...
GregB
- #37,806
- Jul 16, 2009 7:39pm Jul 16, 2009 7:39pm
Eswap is right though, you can't draw a trendline simply from 2 points, if you did, every single pip move upward would be breaking some trendlineyou need at least 3 points
It needs to be really obvious. Some of the ones I see on charts here are a lil
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #37,808
- Jul 16, 2009 8:59pm Jul 16, 2009 8:59pm
2 trades,
1: daily day trade, aka J16 fave..
soybeans, false break of consolidation area, giving a daily pin.... straight to the first support. I took full profit there.
2: 1hr trade based on daily pa...
daily gave a ipb (ghous fave) @ ppz & 61 fib retrace.
watched 1hr tf for entry.. 1hr ib.. small stop exit @ 1st support.
2 ways I like trade..
1: daily day trade, aka J16 fave..
soybeans, false break of consolidation area, giving a daily pin.... straight to the first support. I took full profit there.
2: 1hr trade based on daily pa...
daily gave a ipb (ghous fave) @ ppz & 61 fib retrace.
watched 1hr tf for entry.. 1hr ib.. small stop exit @ 1st support.
2 ways I like trade..
- #37,809
- Jul 16, 2009 9:07pm Jul 16, 2009 9:07pm
2 trades,
1: daily day trade, aka J16 fave..
soybeans, false break of consolidation area, giving a daily pin.... straight to the first support. I took full profit there.
2: 1hr trade based on daily pa...
daily gave a ipb (ghous fave) @ ppz & 61 fib retrace.
watched 1hr tf for entry.. 1hr ib.. small stop exit @ 1st support.
2 ways I like trade..
Great to see u posting again, i always look up for your posts.
keep them coming if u have the time
regards
Matty
Hey Food4Monkeys:
I too am nursing this GBPCAD into a healthy profit....but I feel that there is some major bullish pressure coming soon....I'm just waiting for a reversal signal bar to drop my SL down to...We have a major support level at 1.8245 which just happens to be a 50%/61.8% swing low confluence in a seeming up-trend.
I'm looking to cover my short on the slightest hint of reversal....anyways, I have 1/2 of my position taken off...
Although....it would be nice if this puppy could bust thru the support at 1.8245 and test the Lower Up channel...
although I would disagree with you on the seeming uptrend. Just zoom out the weekly, looks fairly down to me
almost perfect steps down actually.Also, if you want to draw fibs from the last major highs on the weekly, then the 1.92 level is around 38% retracement from 2007 hi and 62% retracement from 2008 hi.
In any case, if we do have some bullishness, my stop is rite above the jul 17 day candle, **just in case**
conversely if price does break down it may keep going a bit. the highs you pointed out around 1.8245 are the strongest looking immediate support. Price has come down hard, and if 1.8245 cannot hold it, it may punch lower. There's just nothing nearly as substantial as that level to hold it until arnd 1.8 in my view.
well that's my angle on it. lets see what happens
- #37,811
- Jul 16, 2009 9:13pm Jul 16, 2009 9:13pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Ok then. What is the air speed velocity of a fully laden swallow??
Google is great.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #37,813
- Edited 9:54pm Jul 16, 2009 9:28pm | Edited 9:54pm
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Norman | 296 Posts
Thanks for your reply batesmotel,
although I would disagree with you on the seeming uptrend. Just zoom out the weekly, looks fairly down to me...
There's just nothing nearly as substantial as that level to hold it until arnd 1.8 in my view.
well that's my angle on it. lets see what happens
GregB
- #37,814
- Jul 16, 2009 9:34pm Jul 16, 2009 9:34pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Ok then. What is the air speed velocity of a fully laden swallow??
u must've learned that from your sailing expeditions.
- #37,815
- Jul 16, 2009 9:37pm Jul 16, 2009 9:37pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Trend lines can have their place when plotted correctly. I'm actually studying up on plotting them right as just another tool in the box.
Side to side are the best IMHO but a well drawn TL to me can be like a fib or MACD, just another form of confluence.
i believe i've mentioned this awhile back.
u can check out aediaz1's thread & post, also belekas'.
- #37,816
- Edited 10:40pm Jul 16, 2009 10:29pm | Edited 10:40pm
Because I like the US and can live any place I want but I am not going to live in a 3rd world country that sucks so I don't have to pay tax, that's just dumb to me.
Also let see if you last past 6 months if this is so easy
Live on the beach, trade tax free.
Sure aint 3rd world! LOL ^_^
"I take 50% off because I have fear"
I'm worse.
I split my size into 3 orders.
1:1.5, to 1:2, i take money off the table to "pay myself first" for risking
and being somewhat right.
By this time I shift to breakeven.
So the WORST that can happen, is that I make some money for risking.
Depending on my read of the market, i either let the other 2/3 run,
or take 1/3 off again @ nx support/resistance.
The last 1/3, again, at subsequent support/resistance, or I trail my stop and cross my fingers.
The best that can happen is that the trend is awesome, and I let 2/3 run and keep adding on. =)
Oh yes.
"Read this link, Jim put it on the front page.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=31232" <-- Bravo. Concur fully.
Spent e past 6 yrs working on this shit.
Getting there gradually. Started off young and stupid. Market rooted out my stupidity.
Kudos Ryan
One Mind, Any Market
- #37,819
- Jul 16, 2009 11:01pm Jul 16, 2009 11:01pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
- #37,820
- Jul 16, 2009 11:30pm Jul 16, 2009 11:30pm
- Joined Feb 2008 | Status: sucker for punishment | 2,444 Posts
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE