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AUD/USD

  • #1,701
  • Jul 15, 2009 8:55pm Jul 15, 2009 8:55pm
aussie/kiwi also look attractive "L" formation

http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/...tm_0949a52.png

im long @1.2373 and limit long @1.2000
  • #1,702
  • Jul 15, 2009 8:58pm Jul 15, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting ben10
just fall below .8000
hi ben, I'll be watching China's GDP

I have a feeling that we might see higher levels if data are good as I think

you could keep a stop at entry for your short, I prefered to profit in
  • #1,703
  • Jul 15, 2009 9:06pm Jul 15, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting fammira
hi ben, I'll be watching China's GDP

I have a feeling that we might see higher levels if data are good as I think

you could keep a stop at entry for your short, I prefered to profit in
thanks !
  • #1,704
  • Jul 15, 2009 9:33pm Jul 15, 2009 9:33pm
data better than expected but the market is standing and waiting for direction from equities, we'll know more during european session...
  • #1,705
  • Jul 15, 2009 9:41pm Jul 15, 2009 9:41pm
highest - lowest for this week so far around 350 pips range and if i look at weekly average movement aussie exhibit top price for the week so i hold my short and 0.8000 is the support now then 0.7900

http://img39.picoodle.com/img/img39/...hm_a4010da.png

and below news :

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=abnOeg9Iue5U
  • #1,706
  • Jul 15, 2009 9:47pm Jul 15, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting ben10
highest - lowest for this week so far around 350 pips range and if i look at weekly average movement aussie exhibit top price for the week so i hold my short and 0.8000 is the support now then 0.7900

http://img39.picoodle.com/img/img39/...hm_a4010da.png

and below news :

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=abnOeg9Iue5U
correct ben, I just prefered to take profit and wait for next move

I might be wrong but looks like real money and speculators are buying the dips and the overall tone in equities is positive

AUD will soon face RBA and institutionals offers but I rather short at 0,81 - 0,82 if I'll have that chance
  • #1,707
  • Jul 16, 2009 3:45am Jul 16, 2009 3:45am
Quoting Magic Trader
going short from 8039. targeting 7946.

predictions after that?
Looks headed down past 7946 and then towards 7900. Unfortunately, I woke up this morning and saw two of my positions at +25 each and took them out for +54.

Ben10, you must be enjoying the ride.

Fammira, what's your next position?
  • #1,708
  • Jul 16, 2009 3:52am Jul 16, 2009 3:52am
Quoting fammira
it could be but usually when a hedge strategy is successful is because the trend was against you so I would look for a higher resistance level to go short again

this way your longs make more profit and you have more chances for your higher shorts to be rewarded

also, you can short at 0,8040, hedge 20 - 30 pips higher and put another hedge at entry.But you see you risk to be bounced in and out continuously.
Better would be that your position goes to black soon and you keep a stop or a hegde at entry level to minimize the risks
I guess they are a lot of ways to play it. It seems most prudent to play it they way you see the market heading. But then the idea of the hedge strategy is to protect our existing positions, isn't that it?? I need to study your post some more!

However, I saw twice previously there was strong action (on the 1H and 15M) from 8025 to 7946, right to the pip. Do you notice things like this happening frequently in this pair?

Thanks for all your help so far fammira! Are you in Italy?
  • #1,709
  • Jul 16, 2009 6:10am Jul 16, 2009 6:10am
Quoting Magic Trader
I guess they are a lot of ways to play it. It seems most prudent to play it they way you see the market heading. But then the idea of the hedge strategy is to protect our existing positions, isn't that it?? I need to study your post some more!

However, I saw twice previously there was strong action (on the 1H and 15M) from 8025 to 7946, right to the pip. Do you notice things like this happening frequently in this pair?

Thanks for all your help so far fammira! Are you in Italy?
hi mate, I am from Italy but live and work in China

My idea is that we could see more gains in the next days, cause tone in the equities is back to positive, and I am waiting for more enthusiasm to short

We'll try to stay tuned and update about the situation, by the way keep in mind that you have shorted at a good price, even though we could see higher prices in the next sessions, I am sure you can be patiently rewarded.
Also remeber RBA is on your side...and if you want to minimize the risk you can open your positions gradually
  • #1,710
  • Jul 16, 2009 8:20am Jul 16, 2009 8:20am
The pair has been in a beautiful trend since the past 2 weeks. Looking now for a .8060 level resistance, and perhaps a flat market for the rest of the day.
  • #1,711
  • Jul 16, 2009 8:49am Jul 16, 2009 8:49am
Quoting Magic Trader
Looks headed down past 7946 and then towards 7900. Unfortunately, I woke up this morning and saw two of my positions at +25 each and took them out for +54.

Ben10, you must be enjoying the ride.

Fammira, what's your next position?
good play Magic Trader , as Fammira play small profit is profit

here the news said that RBA to keep aud/usd around 0.8000:

http://www.dailypfennig.com/
  • #1,712
  • Jul 16, 2009 10:40am Jul 16, 2009 10:40am
Quoting ben10
good play Magic Trader , as Fammira play small profit is profit

here the news said that RBA to keep aud/usd around 0.8000:

http://www.dailypfennig.com/
Right, just wanted to post it as well:

And then there was this... I see where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sold A-dollars
(A$) in June... Hmmm... I said a few weeks ago that I didn't think the RBA was selling A$'s to keep a lid on the currency, but merely evening out the flows... But now, the June total was A$1.9 Billion of its own currency, sold...

I've now changed my mind on this... I believe the RBA is attempting to keep the A$ around 80-cents, given the global recession and everything else going on the financial markets, the RBA probably sees a real problem with a soaring A$ at this point. While I never like a Central Bank selling their own currency... I can't say that I blame the RBA here... They have one of the best stories going around regarding a currency, and if left untouched by the RBA, the currency could be soaring right now, which would in normal times be OK with the RBA, but in current times, is not OK with the RBA... So...

Until the markets decide they want to push the envelope with the RBA on keeping the A$ around 80-cents... That's where it will remain... But... Should the markets decide to push the envelope and test the RBA's mettle, then 80-cents will be left in the rear view mirror... Unfortunately, and I've talked about this before, today's currency traders don't have the cajones to fight Central Banks any more...
  • #1,713
  • Jul 16, 2009 10:50am Jul 16, 2009 10:50am
A quick look at a possible trade for shorting the Aussie.
Attached Image
  • #1,714
  • Jul 16, 2009 10:57am Jul 16, 2009 10:57am
so 0.8500 out of the picture then !
  • #1,715
  • Jul 16, 2009 11:08am Jul 16, 2009 11:08am
Quoting ben10
so 0.8500 out of the picture then !
have a look at this:

http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-usd.html
  • #1,716
  • Jul 16, 2009 12:58pm Jul 16, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting primasoldi
The pair has been in a beautiful trend since the past 2 weeks. Looking now for a .8060 level resistance, and perhaps a flat market for the rest of the day.
Nice call on that prima. Hope you made something off that.
  • #1,717
  • Jul 16, 2009 1:03pm Jul 16, 2009 1:03pm
hi

i have a sell at 0.7844 what is your idea?
comment plz.
  • #1,718
  • Jul 16, 2009 1:15pm Jul 16, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting ben10
so 0.8500 out of the picture then !
No, I don't think so.
  • #1,719
  • Jul 16, 2009 1:50pm Jul 16, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting ashkan
hi

i have a sell at 0.7844 what is your idea?
comment plz.
it may go lower from there. but it seems like it might level off awhile before it does.
  • #1,720
  • Jul 16, 2009 1:58pm Jul 16, 2009 1:58pm
Quoting Magic Trader
it may go lower from there. but it seems like it might level off awhile before it does.
thanks for your reply but when?

next monday?

u mean i should keep this sells?
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