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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #37,521
  • Jul 15, 2009 1:58pm Jul 15, 2009 1:58pm
Sorry for the bright colors, but it reflects my personality!

As you can see I made a swift profit from the Pin Bar at the top. I like to mark all the Round Numbers with a Horizontal line, and you can see the move stopped right on one!!
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Just a boy playing with big bars.
  • #37,522
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:07pm Jul 15, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting johnnykanoo
ok first off everybody that warned me about the usdcad was right. it did drop like a ton of bricks and these types of observations are great for me becaus now i have to analize why it didnt reverse where i thought it might.

second, Jim I am so confused with your money management posts??? Please I don't mean any disrespect and I sort of grasp what you are saying but i really disagree with you and im sure it is my lack of experiance.

lets see if I can explain......
you say one trade is an anual salary for most while mike says 5% a month is...

Let's say I have $250,000 @ 3% is $7500.
$7500/50 pip stop loss = $150 a pip. (roughly)

If I took this Gbp/Jpy 4 Hour BUOB trade (and didn't take anything off the table ) it would be worth, 500 pip move x 150 a pip = $75,000
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #37,523
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:12pm Jul 15, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting jarroo
Let's say I have $250,000 @ 3% is $7500.
$7500/50 pip stop loss = $150 a pip.

If I took this Gbp/Jpy 4 Hopur BUOB trade (and didn't take anything off the table ) it would be worth, 500 pip move x 150 a pip = $75,000

Geezzz.......sounds so simple.........LOL

Ahh yes...the day is coming....

That 75k would be a touch less than 10k MORE than I need to live on for a year.....LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #37,524
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:17pm Jul 15, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting jarroo
Let's say I have $250,000 @ 3% is $7500.
$7500/50 pip stop loss = $150 a pip. (roughly)

If I took this Gbp/Jpy 4 Hopur BUOB trade (and didn't take anything off the table ) it would be worth, 500 pip move x 150 a pip = $75,000
The big proviso Jarroo is people knowing their inner self and getting to grips with trading psychology.

How many traders could let a trade continue without scaling after 100 pips, let alone 500?
And what effect would the trade have on a trader's esteem if it fell all the way back to the breakeven stop before profit was taken.

Guess I'm just trying to get across the point that trading psychology is very important.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #37,525
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:20pm Jul 15, 2009 2:20pm
johnnykanoo,
Quote
....because now i have to analize why it didnt reverse where i thought it might...
not all PBs reverse, u should keep that in mind. & u must consider the current trend ($ has been weak).

Quote
to me by the time a small account person such as myself is able to build it...
i think u will have a different result/conclusion if u apply Sir Jim's stated values (3% etc) to your account's size/value.
For people like us who trade small accounts, we should be a lot more strict/conservative when it comes to risk taking (0.5-2% risk per trade only). Not to mention we should be good at trading & choosing trade setups so we risk less/lose less & win more often (& eventually grow our account).
IMHO, small account holders should have capital preservation & (conservative --as opposed to aggressive-- yet consistent) account growth as primary goals.
also, he kills a trade immediately if he deems necessary. he doesn't often/always wait for his stop to get hit (he has a big account, the $ value of his stops are fairly big too)

Hope i got your point correctly & in the process, created a little more clarity
  • #37,526
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:23pm Jul 15, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting jimboo
Sorry for the bright colors, but it reflects my personality!

As you can see I made a swift profit from the Pin Bar at the top. I like to mark all the Round Numbers with a Horizontal line, and you can see the move stopped right on one!!
Well done on your first trade jimboo! I got stopped out at b/e on this bad boy!

hope you Post more charts

Mike
  • #37,527
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:32pm Jul 15, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting SimonK
The big proviso Jarroo is people knowing their inner self and getting to grips with trading psychology.

How many traders could let a trade continue without scaling after 100 pips, let alone 500?
And what effect would the trade have on a trader's esteem if it fell all the way back to the breakeven stop before profit was taken.

Guess I'm just trying to get across the point that trading psychology is very important.

Absolutely.

I'm sure Jim would have got out much earlier and probably would have waited for the retest or close above the 150.00 with his stop at breakeven.

Learning to let winners run is a big psychological barrier that everyone has to weather through. Taking some of the table and knowing the worst possible out come on the 2nd half would be zero, makes it a lot easier for me.

Sure you get a lot of break even trades ( which is good for the account ) but then that one that goes to the moon makes all thoses breakeven trades worth it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #37,528
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:37pm Jul 15, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting SimonK
The big proviso Jarroo is people knowing their inner self and getting to grips with trading psychology.

How many traders could let a trade continue without scaling after 100 pips, let alone 500?
And what effect would the trade have on a trader's esteem if it fell all the way back to the breakeven stop before profit was taken.

Guess I'm just trying to get across the point that trading psychology is very important.
Very true. Psychology is very important. But it's also a personal thing that one needs to work out for themselves. For instance, that example Jarroo gave would be far easier for me to deal with (psychologically speaking), than what I have to do to make large sums off a small account where I need to risk better than 10 - 25% per trade to do it.

This is precisely why it's so important to really learn this material. By learning to identify the "likely" direction in price and the levels of interference along the way, we minimize the risk by having turned the odds in our favor. The confidence in our choices is what rules the psychology and, of course, that can only be determined by the individual trader.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #37,529
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:46pm Jul 15, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting jarroo
Absolutely.

I'm sure Jim would have got out much earlier and probably would have waited for the retest or close above the 150.00 with his stop at breakeven.

Learning to let winners run is a big psychological barrier that everyone has to...
I've been thinking about this a lot lately and it kind of reminds me of American football. When a team is up a number of points and just wants to pound the rock (run the football) to wear out the opposing defense. The offense runs it and runs it for a few yards and then BAM there goes the runner for a 100 yard breakout run.

That's the way I see break even trades. Eventually, you'll catch a runner.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #37,530
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:46pm Jul 15, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting billye
My calc actually indicate maybe reverse is better,

on a A- trade use small money and hold long time. say position=1/10 acc, big pips of s/l say -2000pips, that's a -2% acc risk.
on a A+ trade use more money, say position=1:1 acc, s/l of -200 pips
on a A+++ trade use a leverage, say position=4:1 acc, s/l of -50 pips

reason is on a no good trade price may random bounce for a long time before hitting your target, so s/l has to loose and leverage needs to reduce.

and a good trade will have tight drawdowns.

just thinking.. not verified by big...

I honestly dont know how the numbers play out. Even on a A+++ high probability trade i dont go beyond 2%. But on the other account i'll go as high as 8%. Obviously if i increase the risk on my main account to 3% or 4% the returns will be a lot higher. Honesty it just feels like im making a lil extra on the side without the risk to my main account and no hard feelings if i blow that small account. I'm sure a lot of ppl will think thats stupid, but it takes away the anxiety for increasing the risk to my main account.
  • #37,531
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:50pm Jul 15, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting SimonK
....How many traders could let a trade continue without scaling after 100 pips, let alone 500?
And what effect would the trade have on a trader's esteem if it fell all the way back to the breakeven stop before profit was taken.
Guess I'm just trying to get across the point that trading psychology is very important.
Valid point SimonK.
I'm fairly far from being consistently profitable, but I among several other newbies here, can see myself letting trades run as such. I have been doing it on demo & i am going to do it once my live account grows a little further (imho, account growth is paramount for a small account, so i can't let trades run as i want&need to, just yet).
The "simple" cure to that fear (of losing out/profiting less/"shoulda woulda coulda") is knowledge of (correct & strong) S/R & PPZs (expected price traffic areas), experience & patience (in taking good setups, monitoring trades regularly, & exiting as planned and at expected S/R PPZs).
  • #37,532
  • Jul 15, 2009 2:54pm Jul 15, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Valid point SimonK.
I'm fairly far from being consistently profitable, but I among several other newbies here, can see myself letting trades run as such. I have been doing it on demo & i am going to do it once my live account grows a little further (imho, account growth is paramount for a small account, so i can't let trades run as i want&need to, just yet).
The "simple" cure to that fear (of losing out/profiting less/"shoulda woulda coulda") is knowledge of (correct & strong) S/R & PPZs (expected price traffic areas), experience...
Scaling is also a good way to deal with this, taking profit at maybe minor s/r points. There are many different approaches.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #37,533
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:08pm Jul 15, 2009 3:08pm
SimonK,
yes, i do scaling. the real issue for me is the account size. if a trader has a small account, like this small (literally & figuratively, lol; in visual comparison, many here have small accounts, some big, a few really big), the trader has very limited approaches. one can only do so much. the hands are sort of tied really really really tight. the best things to do are take really good setups, minimize losses/avoid mediocre trade setups, grow account in the process.
Now, did i say my account is really really small?


everyone, have a good one
it's 4.07am here (Asia)
  • #37,534
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:10pm Jul 15, 2009 3:10pm
What about taking partial profits at round numbers if you like to split up your profits. Sometimes if I get scared, and I'm in profit I will take 50% off, then get out if it reaches my original goal (round number, a new Pin being formed etc). If I'm not in profit I will refuse to cut the trade until I'm completely stopped out, I would feel a real wally if I closed my trade only to see it work out. That's my 2 cents.
Just a boy playing with big bars.
  • #37,535
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:14pm Jul 15, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting SimonK
Scaling is also a good way to deal with this, taking profit at maybe minor s/r points. There are many different approaches.
I think the trade management you use has to suit your situation and personality. If you like to have high win ratio but don't mind lots of break even trades then moving your stop to be quickly then trailing it behind sensible s/r areas is a good solution others might like to let trades develop and give them all the time in the world without moving the stops or taking profit until it is obvious. I think price action has a role to play in exiting a trade also, or at least moving a stop.

(At page 27 on other end of the thread, James this stuff is so good, thanks).
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,536
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:15pm Jul 15, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting supremeChaos
SimonK,
yes, i do scaling. the real issue for me is the account size. if a trader has a small account, like this small (literally & figuratively, lol; in visual comparison, many here have small accounts, some big, a few really big), the trader has very limited approaches. one can only do so much. the hands are sort of tied really really really tight. the best things to do are take really good setups, minimize losses/avoid mediocre trade setups, grow account in the process.
Now, did i say...


Try not to get too caught up on your account size. You are improving your skills and gaining experience and confidence so that you are prepared when you do trade with a large account.

Understand that you do have a small account and make a mental adjustment to trade it in the same way you would with a $100k + account. It might help to think of profit in terms of pips, not dollars. If you can consistently book pips, the $ profits will come naturally.

Ross
  • #37,537
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:22pm Jul 15, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting rossbennett
Try not to get too caught up on your account size. You are improving your skills and gaining experience and confidence so that you are prepared when you do trade with a large account.

Understand that you do have a small account and make a mental adjustment to trade it in the same way you would with a $100k + account. It might help to think of profit in terms of pips, not dollars. If you can consistently book pips, the $ profits will come naturally.

Ross
I have never traded a large account so I am speculating, but I don't think psychologically you would feel the same about having $100 per pip vs $0.50 per pip on the table.
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #37,538
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:23pm Jul 15, 2009 3:23pm
this may sound strange but i am leaning more and more towards scaling IN when a trade has set off in my direction, maybe by going down a TF or adding more when the PA allows. Once i have my original SL at BE or better i would rather add to the possition than take anything away.
not letting my winning trades run has been the biggest issue i have had/have what slows my account growth.
just another view
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #37,539
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:26pm Jul 15, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting mbqb11
Well done on your first trade jimboo! I got stopped out at b/e on this bad boy!

hope you Post more charts

Mike

Not my first trade mbqb11, the first fifty or so trades sent my demo account up and down like a whores draws! I'm live trading now and doing ok after plenty of practise, I followed our Teachers advice to demo until you are profitable.
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Just a boy playing with big bars.
  • #37,540
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:27pm Jul 15, 2009 3:27pm
Here is a thing that I'm curious about is the importance of the larger round numbers. For example, if we look at GBP/JPY currently at 155.00, but how much of an importance does 150.00? As the same is was happening with eur/jpy a while back and when that broke the 130.00 level and then rise almost straight up to currently 133.00.

this could be a strong clue,and thoes break can be taken withaout any confirmation( patherns) and with a tight SL, but if you look at reward .........woow

I'm refering only to thoes big round numer eg 150.00, 100.00, 1.0000 .........
just think about this !!!
I will be out for today
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