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AUD/USD

  • #1,681
  • Jul 14, 2009 10:40am Jul 14, 2009 10:40am
Quoting fammira
as expected, AUD managed to rise from the lows at 0,77 to reach our first target, the resistance zone at 0,786

the sentiment is now positive and I believe the above level will be eventually cut today and will shift to focus on 0,8035 where we could try at least a short term sell
0,786 is behind, strong AUD on strong oil and equities these two days

next resistance is 0,7940 where I will try a quick short with stop above

should be ok for 20 - 30 pips...
  • #1,682
  • Jul 14, 2009 11:36am Jul 14, 2009 11:36am
Quoting fammira
0,786 is behind, strong AUD on strong oil and equities these two days

next resistance is 0,7940 where I will try a quick short with stop above

should be ok for 20 - 30 pips...
limit short every 50 pips above 0.7900
  • #1,683
  • Edited 11:21pm Jul 14, 2009 8:06pm | Edited 11:21pm
I have just entered short at 0,7942

hedge above today's high 0,7945

maybe we could see some retracement after these 2 days upmove with AUDUSD that could visit 0,79 before taking new strenght

as we get closer to 0,80 - 0,82 is wise to follow RBA....
  • #1,684
  • Jul 15, 2009 3:04am Jul 15, 2009 3:04am
Quoting fammira
I have just entered short at 0,7942

hedge above today's high 0,7945

maybe we could see some retracement after these 2 days upmove with AUDUSD that could visit 0,79 before taking new strenght

as we get closer to 0,80 - 0,82 is wise to follow RBA....
heged stop entered, now pointing to 0,80 - 0,8035 to short

stop of the new long position again below 0,7945

patience patience patience
  • #1,685
  • Jul 15, 2009 9:17am Jul 15, 2009 9:17am
AUD resistance 031

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex2.GIF Size: 11 KB


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support resistance

.
  • #1,686
  • Jul 15, 2009 10:00am Jul 15, 2009 10:00am
limit 0.8000 taken o.8050 waiting
  • #1,687
  • Jul 15, 2009 10:57am Jul 15, 2009 10:57am
Quoting ben10
limit 0.8000 taken o.8050 waiting
0.8050 taken
  • #1,688
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:12am Jul 15, 2009 11:12am
short from 0,8040

these levels up to 0,82 should be safe as RBA is helping shorts..
  • #1,689
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:22am Jul 15, 2009 11:22am
Quoting ben10
0.8050 taken
well done mate, you could hedge it above 0,8060 or increase up to 0,81

but I think we are close to a real pullback
  • #1,690
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:31am Jul 15, 2009 11:31am
going short from 8039. targeting 7946.

predictions after that?
  • #1,691
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:53am Jul 15, 2009 11:53am
Quoting Magic Trader
going short from 8039. targeting 7946.

predictions after that?
I am with you, longer time frame you'll be rewarded

if you want to stay with the market and don't matter to take a small loss, you could hege your order 25 - 30 points above your entry point.

In my opinion, we could see pullback and then maybe new rises, but AUD's upside is limited by RBA, at least on the short term.

We could stay in the 0,80 - 0,70 range for a few more months, with possible extensions to 82-83 and 68-69.
Therefore we are now entering a sell zone, but you know that the basic rule in forex is being able to manage your position, so trade safe and this is just my view
  • #1,692
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:56am Jul 15, 2009 11:56am
Quoting fammira
I am with you, longer time frame you'll be rewarded

if you want to stay with the market and don't matter to take a small loss, you could hege your order 25 - 30 points above your entry point.

In my opinion, we could see pullback and then maybe new rises, but AUD's upside is limited by RBA, at least on the short term.

We could stay in the 0,80 - 0,70 range for a few more months, with possible extensions to 82-83 and 68-69.
Therefore we are now entering a sell zone, but you know that the basic rule in forex is being able to manage your position,...
wats RBA???
  • #1,693
  • Jul 15, 2009 12:09pm Jul 15, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting macd
wats RBA???
The Reserve Bank of Australia (Australia's Central Bank)

in these last months is being selling AUD on his rallies in the 0,80 zone

a strong AUD may slow the economic recovery AZ
  • #1,694
  • Jul 15, 2009 12:11pm Jul 15, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting fammira
if you want to stay with the market and don't matter to take a small loss, you could hege your order 25 - 30 points above your entry point.
Thank you fammira! I am trying to acquaint myself with the characteristics of this pair. It seems quite manageable and really seems to retrace prior buying sprees and sell offs.

One question: by hedging, do you mean I should add to my position should PA turn against me?
  • #1,695
  • Edited 12:46pm Jul 15, 2009 12:35pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Thank you fammira! I am trying to acquaint myself with the characteristics of this pair. It seems quite manageable and really seems to retrace prior buying sprees and sell offs.

One question: by hedging, do you mean I should add to my position should PA turn against me?
you are welcome MT

hedging is a way to protect your trades.

if for instance you sell at 0,8040 and the market goes against you, you can minimize the risk with a buy order at 0,8060 for example. (the closer to your sell price, the better, but you can't risk to put it too close...)

since fx market is often quite volatile, this strategy may be very useful in certain market conditions, for example when the trend is still uncertain or when volatility starts to increase like in these days (sometimes have a look at the VIX, the volatility index)

Personally, most of the positions I close with profit have been through losses before, because I use a low leverage and I can wait for my position to recover without big hurries.
It's also true that losses block your capital, and you might prefere to substain small losses and recover from them following the right trend rather than waiting for X time before your position comes back in positive territory.

On the other hand, hedging can block a loss that may eventually turn into a profit.But here the rule "no loss is your first step to profit" is always a good advice to follow...

In this case I suggested you to use it because the market might have some more rise fuel to spend.Personally I don't use it much but I realize it may be a very useful strategy in some situations..

By the way keep in mind that as long as RBA's policy does not change, 0,80 and above is still a decent sell zone....
  • #1,696
  • Jul 15, 2009 1:12pm Jul 15, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting fammira
In this case I suggested you to use it because the market might have some more rise fuel to spend.Personally I don't use it much but I realize it may be a very useful strategy in some situations..

By the way keep in mind that as long as RBA's policy does not change, 0,80 and above is still a decent sell zone....
All good advice fammira! You might be right about a pullback before prices head down again.

So a possible hedging strategy in this situation might be:
short at 8040.
if it goes to 8060, buy.
short again at 8080.

Would this make sense?

Thanks!
  • #1,697
  • Jul 15, 2009 5:59pm Jul 15, 2009 5:59pm
Support Resistance Levels 16 July 2009

0,8071 - 0,8097 - 0,8128 - 0,818 - 0,824

0,8031

0,7966 - 0,7935 - 0,7914 - 0,7872 - 0,7842

__________-

support resistance

.
  • #1,698
  • Edited 7:50pm Jul 15, 2009 7:18pm | Edited 7:50pm
Quoting Magic Trader
All good advice fammira! You might be right about a pullback before prices head down again.

So a possible hedging strategy in this situation might be:
short at 8040.
if it goes to 8060, buy.
short again at 8080.

Would this make sense?

Thanks!
it could be but usually when a hedge strategy is successful is because the trend was against you so I would look for a higher resistance level to go short again

this way your longs make more profit and you have more chances for your higher shorts to be rewarded

also, you can short at 0,8040, hedge 20 - 30 pips higher and put another hedge at entry.But you see you risk to be bounced in and out continuously.
Better would be that your position goes to black soon and you keep a stop or a hegde at entry level to minimize the risks

Sometimes just being patient as I did many many times before collecting my profit works best

ben10 (and I also do it sometimes) chooses the side and then increases his position at higher / lower levels

for instance SHORT

50K at 0,80
100K at 0,804
250K at 0,8090

Hope it can help
  • #1,699
  • Jul 15, 2009 8:33pm Jul 15, 2009 8:33pm
China's GDP out in 30 minutes and I prefered to close my shorts

0,8040 to 0,80 is still fine to me, I am not sure where the market is going short term, I suspect we could see more upside if China does not disappoint
  • #1,700
  • Jul 15, 2009 8:48pm Jul 15, 2009 8:48pm
Quoting fammira
well done mate, you could hedge it above 0,8060 or increase up to 0,81

but I think we are close to a real pullback
just fall below .8000
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