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Thexder's journey to(ward?) freedom

  • #321
  • Jul 15, 2009 5:09am Jul 15, 2009 5:09am
Quoting Jazflyer
As I am presently in the learning mode, is there an explanation for the meteoric rise in price following the highlighted PB. It would seem as if resistance was quite strong with an excellent PB but the trade would have failed miserably.
P.S. this snapshot was July 07 - Aug 08
The sudden break upward especially so soon after that pin could be for any number of reasons but one observation I have is that I don't know if that pin actually broke on the down side. From the chart it might have just barely moved past the pin but also the close of the pin was close to its bottom so the opening and initial movement of the next bar could have just been a continuation nudge downward.

I like when a pin has its close somewhere more along the body to give assurance that it has a definite high and low and then gets broken on the trading side. They say a pin isn't a pin until it is actually broken so if it really didn't break downward, it wasn't a pin. Also, sometimes they just fail.

The last thought is about how far price is expected to go when it does break. Just a few bars to the left of the pin there's a bar high. The price after the pin didn't get that far but considering it as a price zone, maybe it was already far enough and it was time to turn around to bounce upward again.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #322
  • Jul 15, 2009 5:46am Jul 15, 2009 5:46am
Quote
I find even when I try to entertain new ideas and achieve the impossible (invent a new system with MAs or something) I find myself adding J16 stuff until I realize all the other things on the screen are placebos and I can do the same trades with just J16.

Awesome observation/insight.
  • #323
  • Jul 15, 2009 11:46pm Jul 15, 2009 11:46pm
Hey Thexder just wondering if you're still using fibos? - Just re reading Bo's thread!
Time hides Nothing
  • #324
  • Jul 16, 2009 12:14am Jul 16, 2009 12:14am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Thexder just wondering if you're still using fibos? - Just re reading Bo's thread!
Yesterday I was trying them out on the cable chart for fun but I have a totally vacant chart now as shown in the posts. The only lines I ever have are added to highlight trades when I take screen shots.

Occasionally I try to see if I can come up with some sort of method with fibs or MAs like this week, but it always seems to turn out that I can place the same trades without all those added things - for instance if I'm trying to make a system that focuses on MA crossovers and pullbacks to an MA, well, that's no different than just watching price flow and waiting for a new high/low to be made, wait for a pull back, then enter. The MA or whatever else I might put on the chart is just a placebo to feel better about.

When taking a trade from the break of a fib 0% or 100% line what we're really doing is just trading the break of a wave high/low, and the fib doesn't help with that. And as for using it as a target like 38.2% extension, well, I guess I now prefer to target other obvious support/resistance areas that make more logical sense than a fixed blind number. When looking for pullbacks and bounces based on fib retracement again to me it's no different than observing for price action during a pull back and waiting for some sort of bar confirmation to signal an entry. It doesn't matter to me what percentage of a retrace that shows up at. 38.2 to 61.8% is a rather wide ambiguous range to expect something to happen specifically in, not to mention price overshoots and near-touches, giving an even wider latitude. So it's all just in the way for me.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #325
  • Jul 16, 2009 12:28am Jul 16, 2009 12:28am
Here's something I'm working on this week with trying to use the placebo MAs. Don't pay too much attention to them, I'm just using them to help put an emphasis on the direction of the flow.

Also don't pay much attention to the time frame. I just adjusted it until I could clearly see the waves going on right now up close.

More important is the horizontal s/r area. After a few days of going up 45 degrees I saw a double top and then a break down, pull back, and I took a leap of faith going short. I'm set for break even and it's been up as far as +50, currently +30. It might take me out but that's fine. One of my observations is when you catch a big move it goes hard and doesn't threaten the entry point so if it takes me out at break even, it wasn't meant to be.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #326
  • Jul 16, 2009 12:45am Jul 16, 2009 12:45am
Still holding yesterday's easy short with a stop above clear resistance and might be taken out by any sudden jerky movements. It's fighting it now.
Attached Image
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #327
  • Jul 16, 2009 3:10am Jul 16, 2009 3:10am
Quoting Thexder
Yesterday I was trying them out on the cable chart for fun but I have a totally vacant chart now as shown in the posts. The only lines I ever have are added to highlight trades when I take screen shots.

Occasionally I try to see if I can come up with some sort of method with fibs or MAs like this week, but it always seems to turn out that I can place the same trades without all those added things - for instance if I'm trying to make a system that focuses on MA crossovers and pullbacks to an MA, well, that's no different than just watching price...
Gotcha - Perhaps al that fibbing were your training wheels that (weather you realise it or not) helped you learn the market eb and flow...

Good trading m8
Time hides Nothing
  • #328
  • Jul 16, 2009 6:50am Jul 16, 2009 6:50am
I did get knocked out of the 4 hour USD CHF pin short but I saw it was most likely just a shake out so I looked for signs of a continued down trend.

Browsing the lower time frames after all of the sideways idle movement started coming to life there was a bounce off a resistance area and a bearish outside formation. I took that and am again in the short set for break even so far.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #329
  • Jul 16, 2009 12:43pm Jul 16, 2009 12:43pm
I got in and out of several trades all at break even. Price kept going sideways today and I consider it good to have broken even rather than taken a bunch of whipsaw losses. I could have taken profit at extremes of movement and had a few hundred pips combined in 6 trades but I was trying out the new idea I have to get in and set to break even while waiting to see if a trend can be caught.
I was in and out of
2 x GBP JPY
2 x USD CAD
2 x USD CHF
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #330
  • Edited 2:12am Jul 17, 2009 1:49am | Edited 2:12am
My way of trying to get in on a break out and possible trend reversal.
I took a few shorts through yesterday's down move trying to catch a trend and I broke even on both.

Now I noticed each new high was a lower high and all the lows were matching so there was bound to be some sort of a trade even if it's going to be break even.

I watched for a bearish formation at a pull back and now I'm at break even with about +80 active in play.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #331
  • Jul 17, 2009 4:44am Jul 17, 2009 4:44am
What about pulling some profit at what you might see as a possible target and the rest in play to test your thoughts on getting onto a trend?
A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #332
  • Jul 17, 2009 5:43am Jul 17, 2009 5:43am
Quoting Jazflyer
What about pulling some profit at what you might see as a possible target and the rest in play to test your thoughts on getting onto a trend?
The problem is I can only afford to trade single mini lots (Can't do micro on my account) so with my small balance I'm all in or all out. Going to break even is a win for me and it allows the most room to develop the trade. Otherwise in my brief back testing of trying to catch a trend, there shouldn't be many losses, just lots of break evens and then the few good moves to offset the losses. But the testing does show that when getting started it's best to give as much room as possible because of pullbacks.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #333
  • Jul 17, 2009 6:24am Jul 17, 2009 6:24am
Now that it's started to break lower I finally trailed the stop along to lock in around 30 instead of break even. It's up over 100 in play. This is why I choose to go just to break even to give as much room as possible. It almost came up and threatened the original entry price and if it did, I'd be happy to get out without injury because when it is a true trend it should break hard and do its consolidating far away from entry and then keep going with the trend. When it comes back too far it's not what I want in this type of trade.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #334
  • Jul 17, 2009 8:07am Jul 17, 2009 8:07am
Well I ended up getting out of the trade for that 30 pips and that's good news even though I was up at least 105 at one point. I notice all the charts are going crazy and within a few minutes the one I was in reversed by 100 against me.

So that's it for the week. I took maybe 7 trades and netted around 100 pips with mostly break evens and a few gains. One loss of just 14 pips.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #335
  • Jul 18, 2009 2:23am Jul 18, 2009 2:23am
Re. the full mini lot trades. I am only trading demo right now but want to mimic the types of trades I plan to take when I go live. The problem is that the demo account is a standard one. I therefore only enter with either .1 or .2 of a lot to simulate what a mini account would do. Do you not have the ability to trade a portion of a mini lot, such as is the case with a standard lot, within a mini account? I've been wondering about that for a while.
A lawn mower is not an effective tool to pick-up dog poop!
  • #336
  • Jul 18, 2009 12:24pm Jul 18, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting Jazflyer
I therefore only enter with either .1 or .2 of a lot to simulate what a mini account would do. Do you not have the ability to trade a portion of a mini lot, such as is the case with a standard lot, within a mini account? I've been wondering about that for a while.
Mine is a mini account and the only options I have are whole numbers from 1 to 25 so I'm stuck with big risk. If I knew more about that stuff in the beginning I would have gotten a different account and it would have saved me lots of problems but maybe this tough love is helping me shape up faster and make better trade decisions. If I were only risking $10 instead of $100 maybe I'd be more sloppy and end up losing more in the long run in small increments.

It's all money I can risk losing so as long as I'm constantly improving I call it a training course fee. When I do a rough calculation of the amount I've probably lost over the amount of time I've been training, it comes out to $50/month. Not bad for learning how to find my freedom. I've done a lot of breaking even which I maintain is a success.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #337
  • Edited 8:34am Jul 21, 2009 1:54am | Edited 8:34am
Next attempt at catching a trend.
It went sideways and spiked up for a small profit several hours later.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #338
  • Jul 21, 2009 3:15pm Jul 21, 2009 3:15pm
Always another setup waiting.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #339
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:26am Jul 22, 2009 1:26am
Hi Thexder,

is 30M as low as you go ?

Steve.
  • #340
  • Jul 22, 2009 1:49am Jul 22, 2009 1:49am
Quoting Arnold49
is 30M as low as you go ?
I go as low or high as it takes. I make observations either in real time in how it's flowing or by looking at a day's worth of motion and I tweak the time until it tunes in clear like adjusting the volume day by day to suit what I need. Sometimes 30M will be clear for me for days in a row and then it'll just look like a mess but when I go to 15M I see what's happening.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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