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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #36,701
  • Jul 8, 2009 6:27am Jul 8, 2009 6:27am
Almfx,
that's a OB, but more like a neutral bar/doji.

remember the BUOB characteristic: "Close of bar 2 is higher than open and close of bar 1, preferably two thirds of way up or more"
  • #36,702
  • Jul 8, 2009 6:28am Jul 8, 2009 6:28am
I saw this as the best bearish engulfing outside bar today, and managed the stop to BE see chart, looking to 0.9000 area for tp, yet willing to manage the trade from now on in to the chaos....good luck all


Matt
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #36,703
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:00am Jul 8, 2009 7:00am
Here's my thoughts on a trade I'll probably take on USDJPY, thoughts? comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_daily.png Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_4hr.png Size: 120 KB
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #36,704
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:04am Jul 8, 2009 7:04am
Look at the usdjpy on the weekly time frame, we have major resistance around this area, I went short on the monday open (break lower) yet we are heading into resistance around 94 does that help you ?
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #36,705
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:17am Jul 8, 2009 7:17am
Quoting whitegoodman
Here's my thoughts on a trade I'll probably take on USDJPY, thoughts? comments?

Ill be waiting for the retracement only. I will then try and position myself to trade the decending triangle. Good luck

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #36,706
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:17am Jul 8, 2009 7:17am
Your charts appear like any other chart, yet we must look ahead much like one would play the game of chess, we anticipate that move, so we are prpared. I tend to trade this anticipated move rather than the alternative, it is best to wait and see until we approach a major level, ubtil then I tend to watch and keep that trigger finger well away......
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #36,707
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:35am Jul 8, 2009 7:35am
Remember the probability of the outcome, from what I have researched the wedge is around 80% predictable, yet like most systems they are rare formations, and yet high probability, that only leaves 20% failures the odds are ....?
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #36,708
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:36am Jul 8, 2009 7:36am
hmmm I'll let the buy stops stay until its breaks 94.00, till then i'll leave them
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #36,709
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:40am Jul 8, 2009 7:40am
Quoting whitegoodman
hmmm I'll let the buy stops stay until its breaks 94.00, till then i'll leave them

look at the reaction price give to the 94 area everytime it gets hit. Yes we do have a reaction of buyers but each time is weaker . Increasing the odds of a breakout since the amount of sell stop that accumulate can overcome the buyers in that spot. By no means price cant go up one more time..its just that my edge tells me not to do so. We all have different trading plans and none are better then the other aslong as you make money. If your risk to reward keeps you making money then it does not matter aslong as you fallow your typical aproach.
  • #36,710
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:41am Jul 8, 2009 7:41am
As we know the Casino's have face recognition, and less than a 3% profit margin, no stevie wonder here...
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #36,711
  • Jul 8, 2009 7:52am Jul 8, 2009 7:52am
why all of a sudden everyone is trading U/J now? a whole page talking about it...

Quoting mattfx
As we know the Casino's have face recognition, and less than a 3% profit margin, no stevie wonder here...
  • #36,712
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:04am Jul 8, 2009 8:04am
Damn, took a loss on a 4H pin bar on the EURJPY.

I have been very picky with my entries and working on R:R Money management.

I believe this was a good trade. I put the stop loss about 15 pips below the left eye and played the break. Went about 15 pips in my favor (too little to take profit), then slammed down to stop me out.

Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #36,713
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:06am Jul 8, 2009 8:06am
Quoting unlv_tj
Damn, took a loss on a 4H pin bar on the EURJPY.

I have been very picky with my entries and working on R:R Money management.

I believe this was a good trade. I put the stop loss about 15 pips below the left eye and played the break. Went about 15 pips in my favor (too little to take profit), then slammed down to stop me out.

Thoughts?

I hate to state the obvious, but why did you keep the s/l so tight?
  • #36,714
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:11am Jul 8, 2009 8:11am
Hi all ,

I went short the USD/JPY at 94.46 last night on I/B breakout and made about 22 pips. Once price got down around 94.20 area it starting retracing .





EZ
" Master Your Set-Up , Master Yourself "
  • #36,715
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:44am Jul 8, 2009 8:44am
Quoting clockwork71
I hate to state the obvious, but why did you keep the s/l so tight?
R:R ratio. If I kept the stop loss about where I had it, I would end with a 1:1 return. If I put the stop loss below the bar, my return would be about 1:2. If I trade with 1:2, my win rate would have to be VERY high to make a profit.

With that said, I guess my question is...

Was this a good trade, in your opinion? IMO, it was a good trade, and some trades just lose. But I maybe over looking something.

I took the trade due to the nice pin bar, in a good location, with RSI divergence.
  • #36,716
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:47am Jul 8, 2009 8:47am
UNLV,

A few thoughts on this:

First, depending on your trading style this trade has not been invalidated becasue the low of the pin has not been broken. It could turn around and work out.

Keep in mind this though, although the pin was nice and off a 131 round number that did have previous action around it, there was a clearer more recent ppz area right above this pin that could have rejected the trade. See attached.

Also I know you do not want to take a full loss on this trad ewhich is why you cut it short but since there weren't more confluent aspect of this trade it may not have that momentum that you wanted.

Something that Jaroo taught me is the bar break stop, whcih would still keep you in this trade with reduced risk. After the bar breaks put your stop behind the bar that breaks it, that way if it is not a momentum setup you will be stopped out with lower risk, because to be hionest you dont want to be in a low momentum setup on the 4hr IMHO.

Currently, even if you used the bar break stop the trade probably doesnt look like it is going to work out. But just remeber that any previous price can reject current price and right above your entry was a tough area, which is why price could be wafflign around this area. Techinically the trade isnt invalidated buy lets see how it plays out. JPY crosses are reaching key areas, and could bounce off.


See chart for area that could have rejected price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting unlv_tj
Damn, took a loss on a 4H pin bar on the EURJPY.

I have been very picky with my entries and working on R:R Money management.

I believe this was a good trade. I put the stop loss about 15 pips below the left eye and played the break. Went about 15 pips in my favor (too little to take profit), then slammed down to stop me out.

Thoughts?
  • #36,717
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:54am Jul 8, 2009 8:54am
Hello UNL,

I took this trade too and market maximum give me 6 pips and ran against me.

It is not a very good setup 131.5 is the first possible hurdle if you draw the line. When I saw market pass and try to go back down after hit 131.5. My mouse is on the close button. I close out for 15 pips loss.

I knew this is againt the main trend but like you side the location and the pin size is good. Still I wound consider a B grade pin bar. I wouldn't risk more than 10-15 pips if the break performance is not that good. That's what I learned from Jarroo. My orginal stoploss is at the left eye low too but I was ready to kill it early if I find the break performance is not that promising.

I am still praticing and I think minimize the risk the really important.


Thanks!

Pipping







Quoting unlv_tj
Damn, took a loss on a 4H pin bar on the EURJPY.

I have been very picky with my entries and working on R:R Money management.

I believe this was a good trade. I put the stop loss about 15 pips below the left eye and played the break. Went about 15 pips in my favor (too little to take profit), then slammed down to stop me out.

Thoughts?
  • #36,718
  • Jul 8, 2009 8:58am Jul 8, 2009 8:58am
long eur/usd on the re-trace
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #36,719
  • Jul 8, 2009 9:00am Jul 8, 2009 9:00am
Hello UNLV,

In order for me to stay in or hold it longer, I would need to see a bigger strong reversal pin bar that will told me there should be a big reversal. The Pin bar like this it is not very promisng that it will reverse for more than 70 % because it is against the main trend.

Yes, I would definitely conside the R:R ratio, I think if we put the stoploss at the left eye is still far better than at the low of the pin bar. In order to fine tune it, I would use Jarroo's break performance to judge whether I should stay in to let it hit my left eye or get out earlier.

That's my 2 cents.

Pipping



Quoting unlv_tj
R:R ratio. If I kept the stop loss about where I had it, I would end with a 1:1 return. If I put the stop loss below the bar, my return would be about 1:2. If I trade with 1:2, my win rate would have to be VERY high to make a profit.

With that said, I guess my question is...

Was this a good trade, in your opinion? IMO, it was a good trade, and some trades just lose. But I maybe over looking something.

I took the trade due to the nice pin bar, in a good location, with RSI divergence.
  • #36,720
  • Jul 8, 2009 9:03am Jul 8, 2009 9:03am
Thank you dmc...

"Something that Jaroo taught me is the bar break stop, whcih would still keep you in this trade with reduced risk. After the bar breaks put your stop behind the bar that breaks it, that way if it is not a momentum setup you will be stopped out with lower risk, because to be hionest you dont want to be in a low momentum setup on the 4hr IMHO"

The bar broke and then was slammed down 50 pips below its previous low, so this would not have worked either.

This stuff is damned tough.
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