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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #36,521
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:44pm Jul 6, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting supremeChaos
PippingMama,
(looking exclusively at your charts)
just to add a little view on this, if i may...
check out the highs/lows from April 2 onwards (starting around the long-nosed PB) to the lows prior yesterday's bar/candle (i'm just eyeballing your chart... 81.30 - 82.40 area), u could say that that area is a PPZ.
as always, the more confluence, the better.
Sounds interesting sChaos. Sure would be cool to see a chart, though.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,522
  • Edited 11:27pm Jul 6, 2009 11:17pm | Edited 11:27pm
Jarroo! Weekly oil having BEOB shows the strength of USD. How could this be good for the daily bullish pin on EU and GU ? like to know your view on this. Thanks
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  • #36,523
  • Edited Jul 7, 2009 12:37am Jul 6, 2009 11:28pm | Edited Jul 7, 2009 12:37am
Quoting Almfx
Jarroo! Weekly oil having BEOB shows the weakness of USD. How could this be good for the daily bullish pin on EU and GU ? like to know your view on this. Thanks
The break of the Weekly Oil BEOB was not that strong in relation to its apparent size. It may be going into retarce. Who knows. I'm not a big correlation guy. (although I am learning from Rac.) I like the EU and GU formations and confluences, they are worth a hard break look for me.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,524
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:30pm Jul 6, 2009 11:30pm
Quoting Basber
Hi,
What About This PB ?
You may want to put buy stop above 1.6395....so to make sure it breaks that monthly resistance level....just a suggestion. GregB
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  • #36,525
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:32pm Jul 6, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Luso....I never play retrace entries....
so is the drama from over the weekend finally over? i took the long weekend off & then it took me all day today to get through that mess. bottom-line: this is james' thread & thats how i want it to be. so can we now get back to the james16 "chart" thread? good. so mike? why not play retrace entries? many times price will break our level a little, retrace back a bit, & then break hard right back thru it. but each scenario is a case-by-case basis.
also, has anyone ever done any back-testing to see what overall results one gets when they play a pa set-up w/ full position & just close it all out at first level of resistance & then move on to the next set-up? seems like there are plenty of pa signal/set-ups to trade that if one always takes all profit at first resistance they will be more profitable in the long-run.
attached is the trade i am watching for tomorrow, a/j daily long...
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  • #36,526
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:34pm Jul 6, 2009 11:34pm
Quoting dkmb92
so is the drama from over the weekend finally over? i took the long weekend off & then it took me all day today to get through that mess. bottom-line: this is james' thread & thats how i want it to be. so can we now get back to the james16 "chart" thread? good. so mike? why not play retrace entries? many times price will break our level a little, retrace back a bit, & then break hard right back thru it. but each scenario is a case-by-case basis.
also, has anyone ever done any back-testing to see what overall results one gets when they play a pa...
The honest answer is cause I know what I am good at and what I am comfortable with. I really am not trying to be something I am not. I know the way I do it works for me and it helps me be Consistent, and comfortable with what I do. Nothing wrong with what you said as long as you put it through the tests to get it to the point where it works for you. I just do what I know works for me.

Hope that makes sense
Mike
  • #36,527
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:38pm Jul 6, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting batesmotel
You may want to put buy stop above 1.6395....so to make sure it breaks that monthly resistance level....just a suggestion. GregB
Looks good Greg.

One of the many problems of PBs in a consolidation area : The Traffic. There are many different levels the Price can break through or reverse back. So carefull trade management is in order.

Edit : Sorry, you wouldn't take the break of the PB, you would wait until it hits above that 1.6395 level. not a bad way to go.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,528
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:41pm Jul 6, 2009 11:41pm
Will this close above the TL
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  • #36,529
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:44pm Jul 6, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting jarroo
Looks good Greg.

One of the many problems of PBs in a consolidation area : The Traffic. There are many different levels the Price can break through or reverse back. So carefull trade management is in order.

Edit : Sorry, you wouldn't take the break of the PB, you would wait until it hits above that 1.6395 level. not a bad way to go.
Yes, Jarroo....that traffic jam reminds me of our hwy401 (Toronto) traffic nightmare at rush hour...lol!!
  • #36,530
  • Edited 11:56pm Jul 6, 2009 11:47pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting billye
if you don't know what is the win rate to hit your t/p before hitting your s/l, this means you're trading off pure luck.
No it doesnt. Trading off pure luck would be a random entry, which isnt what anyone is espousing.

Even trading a good entry with a defined stoploss and a trailing stop is far better than 'pure luck'.

I would guess that very few people can tell you what their expected 'win rate' on a particular trade is - mainly because setups are so situational. You either wont have enough data, or you will have a dataset that is too broad to be applicable.

The experienced guys might be able to give a ballpark figure based on the market action, but even then you arent going to have 'I predict an 84% chance of the market going my way' as you have previously posted.

That is why traders use an r:r metric rather than an EV - because you cant reliably calculate the latter.

Quoting billye
having a realistic profit goal is another thing...
if you're not sure what is realistic then I guess set a average ROI that is 50% or less than buffet (25% a year?) for the 1st year of trading is a safe expectation...
The way BRK operates is so far divorced from forex trading that it may as well be another universe. You might as well tell him to aim for a ROI based on the number of hotdogs he can eat in an hour.

Why not compare his ROI to the riskfree rate? Or to other forex traders? Or even point him to the numerous examples in this thread of actual ROIs?

Anything else is just setting an arbitary target for a new trader which is going to put him under pressure.

-----------

I get what you are trying to say - have a trading plan in place with a defined goal, and be realistic in your expectations -, and it is great advice...but you have to be really careful - keep in mind the audience in this thread, and that some of them might just take whatever you say and run with it.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #36,531
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:58pm Jul 6, 2009 11:58pm
Quoting mbqb11
The honest answer is cause I know what I am good at and what I am comfortable with. I really am not trying to be something I am not. I know the way I do it works for me and it helps me be Consistent, and comfortable with what I do. Nothing wrong with what you said as long as you put it through the tests to get it to the point where it works for you. I just do what I know works for me.

Hope that makes sense
Mike
i am glad that jaroo consistently reinforces james' "this is critical" mantra....you can play the pa at the break, but "dont let a winner turn into a loser..." i personally have seen that pa is the way the market moves, day-in & day-out, so there will always be more trades than you can keep up w/. always keep this in mind & never forget it.
  • #36,532
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:06am Jul 7, 2009 12:06am
.... lol

jarroo,
I haven't traded this, i believe. but here are 3 charts (XTB Trader MT4).
I extended the PPZ (in dark gray) to Oct10 2008. (Limited view of PPZ as the chart can't run farprior Jun2005). this PPZ hit on several highs/lows on the H4 to weekly charts.

I also plotted more Fibs from "significant" (higher) swing lows.
the blue dotted, red dotted, red & yellow Fibs were plotted way before (3rd chart). the rest are plotted only now.
[swing his/lows were based on my eye/discretion, not on fractal lines, LOL]
yellow Fib = may18 higher swing low to June10highs
chocolate Fib = April28 swing low to June10highs
thick-lined chocolate Fib = March12 swing low to June10highs
(the correct & distinct chocolate Fibs are in chart3; sorry for the confusion)
red Fib = Jan 21 lowest swing low to June10highs
red dotted (downmove) Fib = Sept25'08 swing high -Jan21 lowest swing low
blue dotted(downmove) Fib = July23'08 swing high -Jan 21 lowest swing low
Clearly visible are the 61.8 chocolate Fib (82.36), 78.6 yellow Fib (82.09), 38.2 dotted red Fib (81.81), 50 thick-lined chocolate Fib (81.70), 38.2 red Fib (81.35), 88.6 Fib (81.17; rarely used 88.6... i saw/got it, i think, here or on the internet somewhere). the values in bold were very near the tip of the "nose"/near the lows.
yesterday's price low was 81.29 in this chart.
MACD-wise, it was flat/divergent when price made a lower low yesterday.
There may be other confluences not mentioned here.

on the weekly chart, PB formed in June7 (top) & Jun28 week (last week).
on monthly, the June bar/candle formed, to me, is a non-strict/partial BEOB.
looking at H4 - monthly overall, price seems to wanna visit 76 -79/80 area.
The major areas (spring green/lime lines) i've plotted on these charts were 86, 87.50, & 89 (these 3 were around the top on June7), then 80 area, then 71

...that was a longer post than anticipated. jarroo, again, egged me on, to make a post/analysis. LOL
Appreciate your interest Sir jarroo.
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  • #36,533
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:17am Jul 7, 2009 12:17am
mbqb11,
very rare to see u stay here... still on Holiday?
Appreciate your time here, Sir.
  • #36,534
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:21am Jul 7, 2009 12:21am
Quoting supremeChaos
mbqb11,
very rare to see u stay here... still on Holiday?
Appreciate your time here, Sir.
lol no i was hidden didnt realize that
  • #36,535
  • Edited 12:36am Jul 7, 2009 12:25am | Edited 12:36am
Quoting Almfx
Jarroo! Weekly oil having BEOB shows the strength of USD. How could this be good for the daily bullish pin on EU and GU ? like to know your view on this. Thanks
Keep in mind that correlation != causation.

Very broadly, the correlation you see (which often breaks down) between USD and oil is used to be mainly driven by the fact that oil is priced in USD, and so to buy more expensive oil, you needed to buy more USD.. and what happens when a bunch of people want to buy more of something? So there was a positive correlation... and you saw oil leading USD.

There are other factors balancing this though.

The USD is a 'safety' currency, so in times of uncertainty (like rising oil prices), people sell off risky currencies and park it in USD (and CHF)...driving the price up. Conversely, stability -> lowering of risk aversion -> flows out of USD -> USD weaker... but it was largely weakness in the US economy leading oil (in a non-simple way).

The price of oil also affects the US economy in a negative way.. more expensive oil makes manufacturing more expensive, which hurts US output and therefore currency.

It is really a question of whether one effect outweighs the other. And it isnt an easy question to answer.

Other cases are a bit simpler.

The loonie, for instance, moves mainly because oil makes up a huge part of canadian GDP, and so USDCAD will be sensitive to the oil price. Basically, higher oil price -> good for Canadian economy -> CAD more valuable.

On the flipside, you have someone like Japan that is a massive importer (95%, from memory?). Oil more expensive -> bad for Japanese economy -> JPY less valuable

Same kinda thing with the aussie dollar and commodity prices (gold and copper especially).

Broadly, of late, USD has tended to lead oil with negative correlation. Or so says the papers I have read. It mainly comes down to whether oil price is being driven by supply fundamentals or economic fundamentals.. which, to make things even more complex, are interrelated

And that is without considering the emerging non-USD oil markets.. oil starting to be priced in EUR, for instance.

Fundamentals are complex (but fun!), and go way more indepth than this. You have to consider the output effects, interest rates, etc.

Anyone that can trade based on them is both brave and probably a ninja. Like rac

-------

anyways, back on topic!
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #36,536
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:26am Jul 7, 2009 12:26am
Quoting supremeChaos
.... lol

jarroo,
I haven't traded this, i believe. but here are 3 charts (XTB Trader MT4).
I extended the PPZ (in dark gray) to Oct10 2008. (Limited view of PPZ as the chart can't run farprior Jun2005). this PPZ hit on several highs/lows on the H4 to weekly charts.

I also plotted more Fibs from "significant" (higher) swing lows.
the blue dotted, red dotted, red & yellow Fibs were plotted way before (3rd chart). the rest are plotted only now.
[swing his/lows were based on my eye/discretion, not on fractal lines, LOL]
yellow Fib = may18...
Wow, that's some analysis sChaos. I would just look at Fibs from the major swing High/Lows on the weekly and look for other confluences around these levels. Just a simpler look for me.

I was just egging you to post more charts, that all. lol

You always write out some interesting stuff, but never post a chart. A picture is worth a 1000 words and less typing.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,537
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:27am Jul 7, 2009 12:27am
"I am not judged by the number of times I fail, but by the number of times I succeed; and the number of times I succeed is in direct proportion to the number of times I can fail and keep on trying." Tom Hopkins"Failure is the opportunity to begin again more intelligently." Denis Waitley
  • #36,538
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:28am Jul 7, 2009 12:28am
Quoting batesmotel
You may want to put buy stop above 1.6395....so to make sure it breaks that monthly resistance level....just a suggestion. GregB
Testing
  • #36,539
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:36am Jul 7, 2009 12:36am
Quoting joelcf
Keep in mind that correlation != causation.

Very broadly, the correlation you see (which often breaks down) between USD and oil is used to be mainly driven by the fact that oil is priced in USD, and so to buy more expensive oil, you needed to buy more USD.. and what happens when a bunch of people want to buy more of something? So there was a positive correlation... and you saw oil leading USD.

There are other factors balancing this though.

The USD is a 'safety' currency, so in times of uncertainty (like rising oil prices), people...
Thanks joelcf. Cool stuff.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,540
  • Jul 7, 2009 12:39am Jul 7, 2009 12:39am
Quote
I was just egging you to post more charts, that all. lol
You always write out some interesting stuff, but never post a chart. A picture is worth a 1000 words and less typing.

jarroo,
LOL...
Yes, i try to complicate things. I love challenges.
Different traders see different trendlines, lines, MAs, ppzs, Fibs, patterns, formations etc. I just try to incorporate that view & consolidate that view within my analyses, hence the many Fibs (lines, TLs, MAs, etc) in my charts.
That cadjpy analysis was impromptu (& nowhere complete), so i hope it made sense to/helps some here.

U egging me on does almost always work. (that's why when u are around, i try to minimize my postings/insights..., i try to keep , u won't notice my posts. lol)
I've used that "egging on/post more" tactic with others here too. really A+ results. lol.. look at the thread now, bundyraider et. al. can't keep up/are having a hard time when they get back on from their leisurely vacations. lol

Yes, charts are better to illustrate our thoughts/views.
Thanks for "pushing me" to post from time to time.
U provoke me really well.
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