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AUD/USD

  • #1,541
  • Jul 6, 2009 1:08pm Jul 6, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Thanks!

Remember, we're on range mode, top @0.82xx and bottom @0.78xx, until that we see a clear break out!, btw, I'm short biased on Aussie!

Jhon
range mode it is!! when we do see a trend, its gonna get interesting...keeping my hands back, gonna see the pitch and do the do!! lol
  • #1,542
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:53pm Jul 6, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting Xaron
I see it reaching 8500 this month. The rate cut circle is over but the RBA will have to do its best to keep this pair down...
wow very optimistic there Xaron, ill add even more short at that
  • #1,543
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:31pm Jul 6, 2009 8:31pm
AUD unlikely will make new highs soon

0,8265 is hard to reach with RBA on the selling side

I still consider 0,80 - 0,81 as a good short entry level
  • #1,544
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:29pm Jul 6, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Thanks!

Remember, we're on range mode, top @0.82xx and bottom @0.78xx, until that we see a clear break out!, btw, I'm short biased on Aussie!

Jhon
Hi Jhon, if the price break the support what is your price target whould be, 0.7700 ?
  • #1,545
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:31pm Jul 6, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting fammira
AUD unlikely will make new highs soon

0,8265 is hard to reach with RBA on the selling side

I still consider 0,80 - 0,81 as a good short entry level
took some profit of the short and replace the limit short every 50 pips up to 0.8250
  • #1,546
  • Jul 7, 2009 4:12am Jul 7, 2009 4:12am
Quoting ben10
Hi Jhon, if the price break the support what is your price target whould be, 0.7700 ?
Hi ben!

How are you sir? , Ok, to close the range, maybe we could see a close below 0.78 (50 Ema daily charts) area or close above 0.82, in a while, we can play with the Symmetrical Triangle, I have some targets on mind, all based on s/r, take a look to my chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.gif Size: 33 KB


What do you think? 0.78 ---> 0.77 ---> 0.7450 ---> 0.72 (maybe the most improbable)

Hope this helps!

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #1,547
  • Jul 7, 2009 5:53am Jul 7, 2009 5:53am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
What do you think? 0.78 ---> 0.77 ---> 0.7450 ---> 0.72 (maybe the most improbable)
Beside 0.78 I think all those levels below are highly improbable. Why?

- no more rate cuts
- stable economy (the banks are not that in trouble there)
- treasuries are now secured by the gov (a big plus actually!)
- good exports to China
  • #1,548
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:46am Jul 7, 2009 6:46am
Quoting Xaron
Beside 0.78 I think all those levels below are highly improbable. Why?

- no more rate cuts
- stable economy (the banks are not that in trouble there)
- treasuries are now secured by the gov (a big plus actually!)
- good exports to China
With all due respect sir, I'm 110% chartist, like a great trader on FF says: "funnymentals" are just that, don't take a trade only based on that, look at your charts , trade what you see! and so on...

Btw, My short was triggered @0.80, let's see how it plays...

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #1,549
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:50am Jul 7, 2009 6:50am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
With all due respect sir, I'm 110% chartist, like a great trader on FF says: "funnymentals" are just that, don't take a trade only based on that, look at your charts , trade what you see! and so on...

Btw, My short was triggered @0.80, let's see how it plays...

Jhon
I know. But even looking at my charts I don't see any short - at least not at daily, weekly. Trading fundamentally doesn't necessarily mean that I'm right of course. Usually fundamentals do their job, the only question is: When?
  • #1,550
  • Jul 7, 2009 6:55am Jul 7, 2009 6:55am
Quoting Xaron
I know. But even looking at my charts I don't see any short - at least not at daily, weekly. Trading fundamentally doesn't necessarily mean that I'm right of course. Usually fundamentals do their job, the only question is: When?
Well, I have to admit that, but take a look to this weekly chart, what do you think about this bearish divergence?, maybe we could go to the 0.86 or 1 level, why not? I'm flexible too, but I'm just trading what charts show me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.gif Size: 30 KB


If you have another reasons, just show what your charts are saying, if you don't mind of course!

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #1,551
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:19am Jul 7, 2009 7:19am
To be honest I'm not that good in technical analysis nor this divergence stuff, so sorry. The only thing I use are horizontal zones...
  • #1,552
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:19am Jul 7, 2009 7:19am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi ben!

How are you sir? , Ok, to close the range, maybe we could see a close below 0.78 (50 Ema daily charts) area or close above 0.82, in a while, we can play with the Symmetrical Triangle, I have some targets on mind, all based on s/r, take a look to my chart:

What do you think? 0.78 ---> 0.77 ---> 0.7450 ---> 0.72 (maybe the most improbable)

Hope this helps!

Jhon
im good really good i love to see chart pattern of yours, please hit me more with that thing(pattern) !

price tendency seem downward ,flag formation still intact (my daily bar chart)and that obvious but from the p&f below triple bottom formed :

http://img31.picoodle.com/img/img31/...tm_2fdd274.png

i will take that break out when it come , also i want more than just trade the break out so i'll short it every 50 pips move up ....the limit perhaps at 0.83 but shorter time frame also good for quick pips as she play the range for few weeks now.

good trading to you Jhon, xaron and ofcourse fammira
  • #1,553
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:22am Jul 7, 2009 7:22am
Quoting Xaron
To be honest I'm not that good in technical analysis nor this divergence stuff, so sorry. The only thing I use are horizontal zones...
No problem sir, we're here to learn from each other , you do green pips, me too, I don't see any big deal, have a nice day!

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #1,554
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:26am Jul 7, 2009 7:26am
Quoting ben10
im good really good i love to see chart pattern of yours, please hit me more with that thing(pattern) !

price tendency seem downward ,flag formation still intact (my daily bar chart)and that obvious but from the p&f below triple bottom formed :

http://img31.picoodle.com/img/img31/...tm_2fdd274.png

i will take that break out when it come , also i want more than just trade the break out...
cheers ben

today I managed to close my longs pairing them with EUR and GBP, that resulted into a small net profit.

now I have a first short order at 0,8096 and will increase in the 0,81 - 0,82 area
seems like we might see another upmove today or tomorrow.

we need to watch today's high at 0,8035, then the area 0,8050.
In case of further strenght, we might see 0,81 - 0,8110.
There I would start shorting...up to 0,825 but I said already I doubt we will see it again soon.

on the down side, let's point out today's low at 0,7933.
Then 0,79 and the more important 0,7879 (6 Jul low).
We are still in the 0,8050 - 0,78 trading range.
Short also below 0,7790, whose break would be an important signal and could lead us to 0,74 - 0,75 in a very short timeframe.

you still short?
  • #1,555
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:31am Jul 7, 2009 7:31am
Quoting fammira
cheers ben

today I managed to close my longs pairing them with EUR and GBP, that resulted into a small net profit.

now I have a first short order at 0,8096 and will increase in the 0,81 - 0,82 area

you still short?

I think we might see 0,74 - 0,75 next month
ah good to hear you did ok and yes im still short but limit short 0.8050 not taken out and thats hurt a li'l lol.

i think jhon like to see this pattern topping M formation too :

http://img30.picoodle.com/img/img30/...mm_3b3820e.png
  • #1,556
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:38am Jul 7, 2009 7:38am
Quoting ben10
ah good to hear you did ok and yes im still short but limit short 0.8050 not taken out and thats hurt a li'l lol.

i think jhon like to see this pattern topping M formation too :

http://img30.picoodle.com/img/img30/...mm_3b3820e.png
yes, there's a topping M there, but I still see it up before it comes down

mate you have to explain how to make oanda charts nice as yours
  • #1,557
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:38am Jul 7, 2009 7:38am
Quoting Xaron
To be honest I'm not that good in technical analysis nor this divergence stuff, so sorry. The only thing I use are horizontal zones...
nothing to be sorry about xaron you might like this :

intermarket analysis

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/

mainly fundamental
  • #1,558
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:44am Jul 7, 2009 7:44am
Quoting fammira
yes, there's a topping M there, but I still see it up before it comes down

mate you have to explain how to make oanda charts nice as yours
i use heikin -ashi and on the platform click tools - click colour scheme - click default(white chart)
  • #1,559
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:47am Jul 7, 2009 7:47am
Quoting ben10
im good really good i love to see chart pattern of yours, please hit me more with that thing(pattern) !

price tendency seem downward ,flag formation still intact (my daily bar chart)and that obvious but from the p&f below triple bottom formed :

http://img31.picoodle.com/img/img31/...tm_2fdd274.png

i will take that break out when it come , also i want more than just trade the break out...
Your welcome ben! Your charts are nice, is like a xoxo lol, j/k sir, btw, check hussin thread, his analysis on many pairs are very accurated sir, this candlestick patterns are amazing , keep posting sir, you're doing pretty well!

Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #1,560
  • Jul 7, 2009 7:50am Jul 7, 2009 7:50am
Quoting fammira
yes, there's a topping M there, but I still see it up before it comes down
fair enough but do you know how much im willing to risk to short that m pattern , say i expected double top and looking to short if it breaks to the up side im out ..... you see
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