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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #36,501
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:16pm Jul 6, 2009 7:16pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I am with Mike on taking it all out at 1 time, I also went back to all the trades I took 1/2 off and it was dumb, when I traded the S&P 3min stuff I never did 1/2 trades. Also I talked it over with my mentor and he said "If you want to 1/2 ass it you can do that" I say all or nothing, or trail it up and have a target so then you lock in some or get your target goal.
I can tell you that most of my trades are taken with two positions and when I take partial profit (one position off at the TP1 level and move second to BE) the VAST majority of the time my second position is stopped at BE. I know that you and Mike are far more experienced traders than I but I took a EJ long today off the 4 hr pin and trailed the stop on 2nd position instead of moving to BE. I'm still in this trade and will be trading this way for a few months to see if I have better profit results. You and Mike are far more experienced traders than I and I sincerely look to you gents as part time mentors to me, however I must experience the trades/results first hand to know what works best for me. Thanks for those posts fellas.

K.I.S.S.
  • #36,502
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:24pm Jul 6, 2009 7:24pm
Quoting rossbennett
Johnny,

I think that looks like a good trade. The pin is not the best pin because the nose is small, but it is in a good location (38.2 and 50 fib confluence) Also, price has made 3 attempts now but can't seem to close above the 1650 level. Price was rejected hard off the 1650 level and led to a BEOB on 7/1.

Ross
There are more than 100 pips in this short if it breaks with conviction. This is the type of set up I used to take but now I'd be looking for a bar that shows rejection from the 1.1750 area (150ema). You will get many opinions here. Take my post for what it's worth and learn from it. Some of these will play and others will not. O how I'd like to trade it but I'd rather wait for that nice formation. I have learned that patience is key here bro. You never know, we just might get the bar we want tomorrow. Best of profits to you!

K.I.S.S.
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  • #36,503
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:53pm Jul 6, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting KissFan
I can tell you that most of my trades are taken with two positions and when I take partial profit (one position off at the TP1 level and move second to BE) the VAST majority of the time my second position is stopped at BE.
Yep.

I've traded and back tested many many methods over the years (a lot of indicator ones too.) Not one of them benefited from taking off partial profits. (end result wise)

When I don't have time to analyse charts properly I use Jim's take-profit / set to B.E. method (That makes it sound like a "nuff-nuff" method. lol ...it just happens to be a good method to use in this situation.) . I know I won't go backwards. I can take a lot of crappy trades and still come out ahead. That's why I think it's a great way for beginners to start out on. You don't get many losses and can built your abilities safely.

But man, I love taking the trades where I can go back to "full take profit at Target X" , like a lot of good PPZ trades tend to be. They are right up there close to the "Let it run" set ups.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #36,504
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:14pm Jul 6, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting bundyraider
Yep.

I've traded and back tested many many methods over the years (a lot of indicator ones too.) Not one of them benefited from taking off partial profits. (end result wise)

When I don't have time to analyse charts properly I use Jim's take-profit / set to B.E. method (That makes it sound like a "nuff-nuff" method. lol ...it just happens to be a good method to use in this situation.) . I know I won't go backwards. I can take a lot of crappy trades and still come out ahead. That's why I think it's a great way for beginners to start out on....
Ok. Point well taken Bundy. When you say that you dont take partial profit, do you trail or move your stops?

K.I.S.S.
  • #36,505
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:16pm Jul 6, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting Basber
Hi,
What About This PB ?

Quoting mbqb11
Hey B

That technically isn't a pin since the open and close need to be within the prior bar. Some would say it is a pin by proxy, but I never trade proxy pins so I will let those come in here.

Hope all is well for you over there and staying safe

Mike

Hey Basber, try a different feed, that's what I do.

Nice PB on the Euro Daily on all feeds.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,506
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:18pm Jul 6, 2009 8:18pm
This took place today. I remember James in one of his first few posts showing a similar chart of stacked confluence. Thought I'd share it and as he said, a trader could wait and only take these trades and be rich in a couple of years. 3 fibs from the last 3 swing highs to 0.8400 on Daily Chart, a daily pivot, a weekly pivot.


1. Fib 50.0 = 0.8644
2. Fib 38.2 = 0.8646
3. Fib 23.6 = 0.8656
4. Daily Pivot = 0.8647
5. Weekly Pivot = 0.8647

Pin on the 1 HR. TF

- DW
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  • #36,507
  • Edited 9:15pm Jul 6, 2009 8:27pm | Edited 9:15pm
Excellent observation, Hwd.
Add in the monthly pivot around 0.8635 & 200EMA on Daily at 0.8657 (Alpari).
  • #36,508
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:29pm Jul 6, 2009 8:29pm
Looks like a few of us watching this bar play out, seems like most everyone had a nice day. Some daybar lows stacked up at that 50 fib.
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  • #36,509
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:44pm Jul 6, 2009 8:44pm
I am not complaining today was good but if I got better at changing directions it could of been really good seems so many of these pairs went down then ran back up to a round number I was aware of this but didnt make the trade just being happy with what I got but should of got paid in both directions it was fairly obvious. Something I need to work on bet I wasnt alone.
  • #36,510
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:51pm Jul 6, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
THIS is the hardest thing about trading, getting in with a good setup is easy, when to take it off the table is the hard part.
Thank you Ryan for sharing your perspective. Like I mentioned to Mike, I think trailing is the direction I'm leaning towards.

-G5
  • #36,511
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:02pm Jul 6, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Jarroo,

I picked the weekly pin bar to trade on the cadjpy pair. I found it is very good because it seems like a breakout and rerest the trendline.

I sell it at 81.90 and I wasn expected the closest hurdle will be 81.00.

However, the price reach at the point at 81.40 and go back up? I was never prepare on this hurdle when I look at the weekly chart and I also don't find any significance on the daily chart too?

Can you give me some help showing why 81.40 is a concern? I should have take some off the table instead of waiting until...

Your right, it's not an A+ trade and its not even a PB, its an Inside Bar.

Location is not at a Swing High/Low, but its an IB, small in range compared to the last few weeks and off a Weekly PPZ level (83.00) so let's take a look.

The break pretty good, it gave close to 40 pips before a retest. BreakBar stop loss placement is 40 pips away.

I don't see any obvious hurdle at the 81.40. It was probabaly the 81.50 round number that gave it problems.

Taking some off the table when its a non-A+ (or non-"A" catagory) trade is a must in my book. (that's just me.)

It still has a good chance for the 81.0, it may be heading for that juicy round number, 80.00.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,512
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:28pm Jul 6, 2009 9:28pm
Anyone here surprised that Oil went down today? lol

BEOB on the Weekly at 50% retrace, swing high (kind of) and engulfing the last four weeks.

Anyone think it can go alot lower?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,513
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:56pm Jul 6, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting james16
In over 25 years of trading...
After two and a half decades, wouldn't you have compounded your account to such a degree that $120 would amount to pretty much nothing to you?
  • #36,514
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:58pm Jul 6, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting jarroo
Anyone here surprised that Oil went down today? lol

BEOB on the Weekly at 50% retrace, swing high (kind of) and engulfing the last four weeks.

Anyone think it can go alot lower?
Nice observation Jarroo! I do think it will atleast come down to hit the 60.0 round number for the time being.
"""" --- -- - << ..:: ALM ::.. >> - -- --- """"
  • #36,515
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:02pm Jul 6, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting Almfx
Nice observation Jarroo! I do think it will atleast come down to hit the 60.0 round number for the time being.
I don't trade Oil but that would be a target.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,516
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:06pm Jul 6, 2009 10:06pm
Quoting KissFan
Ok. Point well taken Bundy. When you say that you dont take partial profit, do you trail or move your stops?
You mean when I'm not in partial profit trading mode type of trade what do I do?

...For sure I'll move my stops! On a trending trade.

Want me to really screw with your head?..... <muwaahhahaa>

1. On what I think is a break out into (what i think is) a new trend.... trail stops. (PPZs, two bars or whatever you like) Target major levels and so on .... blah blah blah

2. On a trade I've entered with close S/R. ....full profit (Take what the market is willing to give. ) Sometimes setting BE once near target as a back-up. Sometimes instead of exiting, placing stop just behind the market momentum to milk more out of it. ....Locks in most of the profit, allows possible free ride into a breakout spike. I don't know how many times I've placed a stop a sacrificial 10 pips behind the current price once at my target instead of going flat and gotten an extra 50 or 60 pips. Not just in this method either. On rare occasion massive unexpected bonus moves with a full position on.

3. On a break out trade that has a previous recent high/low to contend with before a trend can possibly continue on.... Watch screen at that high/low when alarm goes off.... If it looks like retracing take full profit and wait for a new pullback entry at the break out point. Re-enter if looks right. If there's enough room and a good enough signal I'll even take reverse trade down to the pullback area and apply same method. Rarely though.

4. Weekly chart shows bearish OB (Not awesome, but good OB). ...4 hour chart gives Rac style retrace entry right where suspected. ...enter trade ....Take partial profit at low of weekly bearish bar if it looks like consolidating at that low. ....What's left of position is "safe" amount for a weekly type trade. In other words, the larger 4-hour portion was like a scalp "trade within a trade" and was much larger position because of closer stop . Bearish bar is Ok, and expected to be successful, so I'd leave the rest of the position on as a trail with PA and PPZ type management style or until conflicting signal. If weekly bar was just a possible sign of consolidation (i.e. was sitting on top of a strong PPZ) ...possibly take full profit. In other words the partial position left on has to have it's own merits.

5. Summer survival mode. ....Just about every trade will be partial profits at first trouble area/ move rest to BE. And not often half. If it's crowded I'll take nearly everything off and turn off and go to bed or whatever . I use this mode when I'm not feeling like doing too much work with charts (can be any time of the year) . It's less stressful. My account goes forward (Just not as quickly) And I can get away with sub-standard trades (Don't confuse that with not being picky still. Most of the "Picky" bit is obvious and takes 2 seconds per trade to look at. As most here know)

6. 7. 8. 9. 10.........

I could so keep going on like I PM'd mike about earlier. There are little changes to the plan under differing conditions. And one year to the next can change what is optimum. Always re-evaluate. (Look at late last years volatiilty!)

For the new guys reading this...
Makes it sound really complicated doesn't it? ...BUT it all depends on the S/R outlook. Simple S/R .
How crowded is it? And how strong is the move?
Is it obvious EVERYONE has changed sentiment all of a sudden?

There's a hell of a lot of that "simple" to implant. But it IS simple. Just needs practice and confidence in your method. lol

A point I should make is a lot of the complicated subtleties above are only really done to improve on already profitable methods. Milking more out of the market. You don't need to do your head in like this to be profitable.

A lot of the long time members here will be nodding there heads with most of the stuff above. Others will be going "Oh mannn.... he's totally over complicating it!" lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #36,517
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:14pm Jul 6, 2009 10:14pm
50 pip gap on my feed looking to get filled soon as 155 proves support looking to go long. This is a pair if I was on my toes could of reversed and went long down at that tl looks easy in hindsight.
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  • #36,518
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:15pm Jul 6, 2009 10:15pm
Hello Jarroo,

I found the possible hurdle for why price stop at 81.30 area. It maybe the 38.2% fib level. See the chart.

Do you think we should always consider the big fib level and see it might be some kind of importance possible Support and Resistence level?

Do you usually concern area on those big fib levels? I am not really sure about this because I usually look at the historical bar low and bar high. If yes, I will pay more attention to the fib level support and resistence next time.


Thanks! Jarroo!

Pippingmama



Quoting jarroo
Your right, it's not an A+ trade and its not even a PB, its an Inside Bar.

Location is not at a Swing High/Low, but its an IB, small in range compared to the last few weeks and off a Weekly PPZ level (83.00) so let's take a look.

The break pretty good, it gave close to 40 pips before a retest. BreakBar stop loss placement is 40 pips away.

I don't see any obvious hurdle at the 81.40. It was probabaly the 81.50 round number that gave it problems.

Taking some off the table when its a non-A+ (or non-"A" catagory) trade is a must in my...
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  • #36,519
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:32pm Jul 6, 2009 10:32pm
Quote
Do you think we should always consider the big fib level and see it might be some kind of importance possible Support and Resistence level?

PippingMama,
(looking exclusively at your charts)
just to add a little view on this, if i may...
check out the highs/lows from April 2 onwards (starting around the long-nosed PB) to the lows prior yesterday's bar/candle (i'm just eyeballing your chart... 81.30 - 82.40 area), u could say that that area is a PPZ.
as always, the more confluence, the better.
  • #36,520
  • Edited 11:16pm Jul 6, 2009 10:43pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting PippingMama
Hello Jarroo,

I found the possible hurdle for why price stop at 81.30 area. It maybe the 38.2% fib level. See the chart.

Do you think we should always consider the big fib level and see it might be some kind of importance possible Support and Resistence level?

Do you usually concern area on those big fib levels? I am not really sure about this because I usually look at the historical bar low and bar high. If yes, I will pay more attention to the fib level support and resistence next time.


Thanks! Jarroo!

Pippingmama
Absolutely.

Not just "big fibs" , but any level or formations on the higher time frame, like the Daily and Weekly, are very important. As Mike has pointed out, its more data to work with.

But the key to it all, of a great location at these "bigger" time frames is when a few of these levels come together, meet or gather at one level: Confluence.

The 38.2 Fib combined with the 81.50 round number may have been it.

Yes, pay attention to these higher time frame levels, Fibs, 50% retrace, PPZs, Round Numbers, EMAs, trendlines, etc., especially when they come together.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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