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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,281
  • Jul 5, 2009 4:47pm Jul 5, 2009 4:47pm
A little bird told me that I need to start posting more here. I tend to lurk and read the great posts by all of you, but I feel that I am not strong enough with the system to post much. I do want to contribute here and I think I'm getting a better handle on the method, so right or wrong I will try to add my input.

I am in agreement with the sentiment that EURUSD is somewhat indecisive at the moment, however, it does look like there may be somewhat of a dollar bounce across the pairs. I'm not counting on a big bounce for the dollar, but it is possible that the overall dollar index could be finding some kind of short term support. I am most likely looking at USDCHF for a play on this and maybe (and cautiously) EURUSD. I would wait for the next signal on EURUSD because the entry for me would have been Friday morning and I don't take signals on Friday.

Good trading everyone!
  • #20,282
  • Jul 5, 2009 4:52pm Jul 5, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting swingdjpj
maybe (and cautiously) EURUSD. I would wait for the next signal on EURUSD because the entry for me would have been Friday morning and I don't take signals on Friday.
I forgot to mention that my Friday morning is NY time and the other reason I would have stayed away from the signal on Friday was that it was resting on the 89 SMA. I don't take trades if they are on 89 or 200.
  • #20,283
  • Jul 5, 2009 8:05pm Jul 5, 2009 8:05pm
Quoting swingdjpj
A little bird told me that I need to start posting more here. I tend to lurk and read the great posts by all of you, but I feel that I am not strong enough with the system to post much. I do want to contribute here and I think I'm getting a better handle on the method, so right or wrong I will try to add my input.

I am in agreement with the sentiment that EURUSD is somewhat indecisive at the moment, however, it does look like there may be somewhat of a dollar bounce across the pairs. I'm not counting on a big bounce for the dollar, but it is...
Thanks Swingdjpj. We love your contribution and appreciate your opinion. Keep posting.
  • #20,284
  • Jul 6, 2009 1:59am Jul 6, 2009 1:59am
Took the TC on EJ to the trendline during the Asian session.

Stop 134.25
Entry 133.64
Exit 132.92 for 72 pips.
Attached Image
  • #20,285
  • Jul 6, 2009 4:45am Jul 6, 2009 4:45am
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  • #20,286
  • Jul 6, 2009 5:26am Jul 6, 2009 5:26am
hi ssq,

Are you seling because it is on the fibo retracement?

regards
jin
  • #20,287
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:16am Jul 6, 2009 7:16am
Took the trade I mentioned earlier. As you can see on the attached chart, it broke out of a pretty good little flag. That is where I entered, using 1h for confirmation. I think I may have even entered a little early on that, but it worked in my favor on this one. 1.100 should act as a magnet as it should get tested. I will be holding on for that move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,288
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:25am Jul 6, 2009 7:25am
Quoting jinsen
hi ssq,

Are you seling because it is on the fibo retracement?

regards
jin
no ,i looked fibo seldom.
i sell eurusd ,because,the price break down the up channel,and retrace to it,and there is a hammer,i like it.
  • #20,289
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:34am Jul 6, 2009 7:34am
Quoting xeneric
Took the TC on EJ to the trendline during the Asian session.
I took the GBPUSD. Good move on both of those.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,290
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:23am Jul 6, 2009 8:23am
Afternoon all,

After 3 weeks of waiting for momentum and no trades I have finally taking a TC signal on the GBP/USD. These past couple of weeks the market really has been in a 500 pip range something which I do not like trading. As I tell everyone I teach, its all about knowing when to trade and when to stand back which is what i've been doing for the past 3 weeks. The next video which I will upload tomorrow is all about this. Right back to todays trade, here are the reasons for entering the trade:

1) Very Strong 4H close below previous support at the 1.6220 zone.
2) Large bearish engulfing candle which shows strong momtenum to the downside.
2) 4H arrgessive close outside of the large box range / consolidation period we have been in for just over a month.
3) 1D placed a bearish engulfing pattern off the new highs.
4) 1H showing a lower high and lower low, with good angle and seperation of the 8 / 21 EMA's which indicates good momentum & rhythm.

Entry @ 1.6158
TP: 1.6040 zone (From daily & 21EMA on Daily) / 1.5980 zone (secondary)
Sl: 1.6315

I will post a video reviewing this trade when its over.

Please support my youtube channel by rating / commenting on the the video's:

Cheers WG
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  • #20,291
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:49am Jul 6, 2009 8:49am
Great trades everyone. I took the bounce off 21 and 89 with the TC on UJ.

Stop 96.15
Entry 95.59
Exit 94.86 for 73 pips
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  • #20,292
  • Jul 6, 2009 5:47pm Jul 6, 2009 5:47pm
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  • #20,293
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:26pm Jul 6, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting ssq
Attachment

Attachment
Hi ssq

Just for learn where did you sell ? I think that after that huge red candle and a TC pattern on MACD.

I try to avoid trade after candles like that...too big. But that was a breakout of the trend line with a power candle... was a setup on MACD and no support on the way ... Do not be sad you didn`t force the entry and that wasn`t a wrong trade... only the result wasn´t good.

I think we should post more bad trades... we all can learn with the mistakes of each others.

Suba
  • #20,294
  • Jul 6, 2009 7:45pm Jul 6, 2009 7:45pm
This was a pattern formed on Cable 1hr... It is impossible to be out. Unfortunately I missed the trade was at work.


http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9171/imagem0607.png
  • #20,295
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:51pm Jul 6, 2009 8:51pm
According to Phil's rules, a breakout through a trendline is usually followed by a pullback to the trendline. Here we have a pullback to the 21 EMA and the trendline followed by an evening star. Will be watching with interest for a TC to the downside.
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  • #20,296
  • Jul 6, 2009 8:54pm Jul 6, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting xeneric
According to Phil's rules, a breakout through a trendline is usually followed by a pullback to the trendline. Here we have a pullback to the 21 EMA and the trendline followed by an evening star. Will be watching with interest for a TC to the downside.
Similarly with GU. I will be watching with interest for a TC to the downside.
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  • #20,297
  • Jul 6, 2009 9:26pm Jul 6, 2009 9:26pm
hi xenerix,

Tc on breakout i think only got two scenarion. From what i read through and learn. One of them is the one xeneric show. Another one is you anticipate before the breakout.

I like this current scenarion on GU. A support being breakout and then retest the support as resistance line. Well support by candlestick.

If that candle closed with a eveningstar patter. But your macd still hasnt give that red signal. Would you still enter this trade?

regards
jin
  • #20,298
  • Edited 10:29pm Jul 6, 2009 10:03pm | Edited 10:29pm
Quoting jinsen
hi xenerix,

Tc on breakout i think only got two scenarion. From what i read through and learn. One of them is the one xeneric show. Another one is you anticipate before the breakout.

I like this current scenarion on GU. A support being breakout and then retest the support as resistance line. Well support by candlestick.

If that candle closed with a eveningstar patter. But your macd still hasnt give that red signal. Would you still enter this trade?

regards
jin
In the event that there is no TC, I would wait until the 4 hr candle closes. My candle closes in 1 hr but there is the RBA rate decision (AUD) after that so I will wait a little longer.
  • #20,299
  • Jul 6, 2009 10:44pm Jul 6, 2009 10:44pm
I know there is good reason to take the signals given by price action and I use price action as the first thing that I look at but I have found that having MACD confirmation just works more for me. There are so many signals (opportunities) to trade with this trading model that I just don't like the odds when the price action is not confirmed with MACD. I can't say that it will not work without, but my statistics are based on taking trades that have a confirmation. This to me is the heart of this method. Otherwise, it is just candlestick trading with moving averages thrown in.

We are currently testing the area of upward sloping 200 sma on both GU and EU. I would rather wait to see if they break down again before I commit to either. Again, there are lots of signals down the road and sometimes, as WG stated, it is prudent to stand aside.

Just my 2 1/2 pips worth,
  • #20,300
  • Jul 6, 2009 11:42pm Jul 6, 2009 11:42pm
Quoting swingdjpj
I know there is good reason to take the signals given by price action and I use price action as the first thing that I look at but I have found that having MACD confirmation just works more for me. There are so many signals (opportunities) to trade with this trading model that I just don't like the odds when the price action is not confirmed with MACD. I can't say that it will not work without, but my statistics are based on taking trades that have a confirmation. This to me is the heart of this method. Otherwise, it is just candlestick trading...
Hey swingdjpj, you hit it right on the nail. The heart of the system is price action around the moving averages with MACD confirmation. The MACD is your trigger so there might be great targets but if the MACD does not confirm it then there is no trade.......that is also how I look at my trades. As you mentioned, there are so many opportunities to trade that one can trade solely on price action and moving averages but the heart of this system is based on the MACD signal given for your trigger finger.

Patience with this system is prudent and with strict money management rules and trading the high probability trades with MACD confirmation will make you money.......and that is worth waiting for.

AS for Eur and GBP, both have broken downward trend line and have since retraced back to it which happen to be by the 200sma. We can be premature and take a short here but if you are one to follow the rules and heart of the system, then it is within the rules to wait until a TC MACD signal before going short and that is what I will be looking for.
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