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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,381
  • Jul 3, 2009 9:55am Jul 3, 2009 9:55am
Tacsily,, are you using NY's 7-9 am?? it doesnt seem like it.
"Do or do not... there is no try" Master Yoda
  • #1,382
  • Jul 3, 2009 11:48am Jul 3, 2009 11:48am
Another good trader been banned.
  • #1,383
  • Jul 3, 2009 5:42pm Jul 3, 2009 5:42pm
I used to trade by drawing a box around 6-8 am on EUR/USD since I found to be more profitable than 7-9. I've noticed that when I place 2 orders outside the box and the orders get hit after 8 AM, the average pip move seems to be 10-20 PIPS and many times it reversed. So this is profitable but I think the max pip i can make on average per trade is 10-20 pip. and it can get frustrating when the market reverses (and this happens many times)

Then I noticed something else after looking at charts...I think there's more pips to be made when you trade on reversal. when the color of candle sticks are dominated by one color 1 hour before 8:45-9:00 am and
after the color changes at the end of 8:45-9:00 am the market reversed and I see more profitability (40-90 pips- if entry at end of the candle that changed color)... meaning it went back into the box.

Also, to confirm the reversal, the candle stick that changed color has
to be small to close to a Doji. And more importantly the candles size has to be less than 20 pip on a 15 min. chart.
  • #1,384
  • Jul 4, 2009 4:33pm Jul 4, 2009 4:33pm
Looking at tasciy's charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1376

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1377

...this system looks great with all wins and no losses. I created an ea to back test his method which appears to be an alternate version of the 7am-9am big dog method in the following ways (please correct me someone if I'm wrong):

Stop orders are placed at 3:31 EST (New York Time) / 7:31 GMT using previous seven 30 minute bars as box and always using a 30 pip t/p. Orders are placed with a few pips buffer beyond the box (in my testing I used 10 pips, but maybe it should be less?) S/L is placed at opposite side of box.

Following those rules, my ea executed every order as illustrated in tasciy's charts with all wins and 0 losses for the time frames pictured.

When ran for the entire current year (2009-01-01 through 2009-07-04) with a 5% risk (~$20 of $400 ... sorry for the odd numbers) I get:
167 trades
140 winners
27 losers
Average Profit: $5.59
Average Loss: $20.93
Gross Profit: $782.82
Gross Loss: -$565.06
Net Profit: $217.76 (~54%)


When ran for the entire last year (2008-01-01 through 2008-12-31) with a 5% risk (~$20 of $400 ... sorry for the odd numbers) I get:
326 trades
237winners
89 losers
Average Profit: $6.70
Average Loss: $20.46
Gross Profit: $1588.42
Gross Loss: -$1820.67
Net Profit: -$232.25 (~-58%)

2007 was another negative year with a net profit of -396.46 (going completely bust in July of 2007)

If there is a flaw in my rules definition above, or you guys are using a filter beyond what is defined above, let me know and I will try to include that in my EA as well.
  • #1,385
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:28pm Jul 4, 2009 5:28pm
Could you post the EA to see if we could tweak it or try other settings to make it more profitable.
  • #1,386
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:31pm Jul 4, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting gustav213
Could you post the EA to see if we could tweak it or try other settings to make it more profitable.
Yes, it's attached here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 7am-9am breakout_v2.ex4   5 KB | 784 downloads
File Type: mq4 7am-9am breakout_v2.mq4   4 KB | 976 downloads
  • #1,387
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:40pm Jul 4, 2009 10:40pm
Hi I was looking at the indicator, and noticed it did have negative results on back testing.

I was reading the commands in notepad and was confused a little it says start at 7 so is that 7am or what and the high and low I was not really able to see it in there.
  • #1,388
  • Jul 5, 2009 12:25am Jul 5, 2009 12:25am
excellent JOB...its just a general knowledge and not a magic system.but great thought.
  • #1,389
  • Jul 5, 2009 7:51am Jul 5, 2009 7:51am
Quoting jasonphd
I get:
167 trades
140 winners
27 losers
Average Profit: $5.59
Average Loss: $20.93
Gross Profit: $782.82
Gross Loss: -$565.06
Net Profit: $217.76 (~54%)


When ran for the entire last year (2008-01-01 through 2008-12-31) with a 5% risk (~$20 of $400 ... sorry for the odd numbers) I get:
326 trades
237winners
89 losers
Average Profit: $6.70
Average Loss: $20.46
Gross Profit: $1588.42
Gross Loss: -$1820.67
Net Profit: -$232.25 (~-58%)
thanks for the EA...really appreciated..
ur stoploss is too high..u just make this winning system looks likes loosing system..
I think if u can limit the stoploss,this system is a great one..
  • #1,390
  • Jul 5, 2009 9:16am Jul 5, 2009 9:16am
You may try adding a Bollinger bandwith level to filter trades. The idea being to take trades only when BBs are compressed, reflecting low price volatility, a state when breakouts are more likely to produce some movement. For examle, play breakout of the box only when 20 pd./2 SD BBs are below .02 reading. The best BB settings need to be determined by testing. Have you tried this?? I would like to see if it improves performance.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,391
  • Jul 5, 2009 9:18am Jul 5, 2009 9:18am
Quoting shaun_ru_th
thanks for the EA...really appreciated..
ur stoploss is too high..u just make this winning system looks likes loosing system..
I think if u can limit the stoploss,this system is a great one..
My EA puts the stoploss at the opposite side of the box (not including the buffer). I thought that was the rule, but I could be wrong. How should the s/l be set?

My goal is not to make this system look bad. My goal is to backtest the system following hard fast rules in the hopes that this system is profitable. If there are tweaks that can be made to the EA or there are errors in my logic (which I'm sure there are), please let me know.
  • #1,392
  • Jul 5, 2009 9:43am Jul 5, 2009 9:43am
Quoting Pippopotamus
You may try adding a Bollinger bandwith level to filter trades. The idea being to take trades only when BBs are compressed, reflecting low price volatility, a state when breakouts are more likely to produce some movement. For examle, play breakout of the box only when 20 pd./2 SD BBs are below .02 reading. The best BB settings need to be determined by testing. Have you tried this?? I would like to see if it improves performance.
When you say below the .02 reading, do you mean the difference between the upper line and lower line should be less than .02?
  • #1,393
  • Jul 5, 2009 10:43am Jul 5, 2009 10:43am
is the width of the bands expressed as a percent of the value of the SMA (middle band) which the bands accompany. Band Width = upper band-lower band/middle band. You may want to check out the Bollinger website for a more comprehensive explination. The,".02," is the reading on the indicator of the current value of upper-lower/middle.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,394
  • Jul 5, 2009 11:25am Jul 5, 2009 11:25am
Quoting jasonphd
My EA puts the stoploss at the opposite side of the box (not including the buffer). I thought that was the rule, but I could be wrong. How should the s/l be set?

My goal is not to make this system look bad. My goal is to backtest the system following hard fast rules in the hopes that this system is profitable. If there are tweaks that can be made to the EA or there are errors in my logic (which I'm sure there are), please let me know.
no.I was trading the same way as the original system(stoploss at the opposite side of the box)but the point is, the range of the 15 min 9 candles is higher than 80 pips, one stoploss could be a massive drawdown.
so we have few options for this
use more than one pair at a time( I trade with 5 pairs).doing this you can minimize ur lost.(its highly unlikely to lost all the 5 trades,it never happen to me)
and the other thing is using a fixed SL.by doing this we can minimize our lost(I suggest 40-45pips)
I suggest both,trading with more than one pair and always use a fixed SL.
r u using fixed TP for this EA? I used to take 45 pips all the time..
  • #1,395
  • Jul 5, 2009 1:07pm Jul 5, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting Paupau MX
Tacsily,, are you using NY's 7-9 am?? it doesnt seem like it.
i use 06:00-09:00 gmt (not ny) i live in gmt+2 time zone so i am lucky to follow euro opens.

in the graphic i add 06-09 lines but its only one hour earlier than my local time. so i am little confused about it because of daylight saving time.

sorry about my late reply.
  • #1,396
  • Jul 5, 2009 1:14pm Jul 5, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting jasonphd
Looking at tasciy's charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1376

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1377

...this system looks great with all wins and no losses....
here is the results for 2months (43days)

profit 54x30pip= 1620 pip
stop -260
net p/l = 1360pip

i backtested for a year and this system is really profitable. actually if you use this with trailing stop it could be more profitable.

bye the way i use 0600-0900 gmt and order two side of bands.
  • #1,397
  • Jul 5, 2009 5:58pm Jul 5, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting tasciy
.... bye the way i use 0600-0900 gmt and order two side of bands.
Please see the attached graphic. This chart is from IBFX and uses GMT time (I think). I've drawn lines for July 2nd that match your box's lines from the same time period. I believe you are really using 0400-0700 GMT aren't you?

The 0700 bar expires at 0730 so I set my EA to enter the 2 trades at 0731 using the 7 previous 30 minute bars.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: july 2nd.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #1,398
  • Jul 5, 2009 6:40pm Jul 5, 2009 6:40pm
when you say 7-8am is it gmt?


Quoting simoneg
Hi Everyone, I have been observing this strategy for sometime now and i notice that I get better results using the 7-8am candles, also use it at 7-8pm. Please look back and tell me your thoughts.
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,399
  • Jul 5, 2009 6:58pm Jul 5, 2009 6:58pm
I think you're right about Tasciy's times being 04:00 to 07:00 GMT, as that's what I'm showing on my charts too.
  • #1,400
  • Jul 5, 2009 8:01pm Jul 5, 2009 8:01pm
End of confusion guys, Tasciy's time zone is new york's 12am midnight.

I just compared my charts with Tasciy's and it's confirmed he is using from 00:00 midnight till 03:00 London open. remember all times are new york.
Failure is the mother of success: learn from 'her'
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