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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #36,261
  • Jul 4, 2009 2:46pm Jul 4, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting Luso
Thank you for the great chart... Can you give us a clue about your exit targets??

You were so pretty... I guess you are "the girl" James was talking about a few days ago...
I'm currently collecting all of his posts from 2005, I'll print it and read it twice a week... even the ones when he's scalping on the 10 mins chart

and I still can't figure out yet how to do the thing he did, but it's been 4 years and you gotta admit that he's been trading a lot longer than that, I've only started trading forex on mid 2008, futures before with extreme failure, so I think I'll give myself a "little" time... I'm not a fast learner and I had to take more effort than anyone else to succeed at something, I have known that for awhile and that's exactly why I've been losing sleep and life over screentime+charting, I'll get there someday as long as I don't give up.
  • #36,262
  • Jul 4, 2009 2:50pm Jul 4, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting albchr
Pretty much. I don't wander around too much as I'm a newbie and quite frankly, I still find it difficult to watch too many pairs. I'll move around only if there's no real action happening on these two.
chris's short learning curve never ceases to amaze me, then again, he has read the WHOLE thread twice, I've spent 3 months just to finish it when it had about 1800 pages, and I'm still on the dailies, I guess there must be something I'm missing, man.. I'm slow.

Great trades there Chris! You're a true motivation
  • #36,263
  • Jul 4, 2009 3:19pm Jul 4, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting marcelnyo
chris's short learning curve never ceases to amaze me, then again, he has read the WHOLE thread twice, I've spent 3 months just to finish it when it had about 1800 pages, and I'm still on the dailies, I guess there must be something I'm missing, man.. I'm slow.

Great trades there Chris! You're a true motivation
Thank you! That's really very kind....

Actually, it's 3 times through the thread but.........don't tell anyone. But that's 18 hours a day, 7 days a week until my eyes simply couldn't focus anymore.

But I'll tell you, I'm no better than anyone else. It's just my situation forced me to take this more seriously than perhaps other folks. If someone put a gun to your head and told you "you MUST do this" you would. Well I have far more than a gun to my head. My family is at stake and NOTHING means more to me than that.

But truly, you have touched my heart with your words. Thank you...

Anyway, I wish you all the very best but I have to get my butt in gear to go hang with some friends for a BBQ.....
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #36,264
  • Jul 4, 2009 3:22pm Jul 4, 2009 3:22pm
One argument that no one has brought up for a while (that I know of) for trading on bigger timeframes is that because of the spread a larger win rate is required to become a positive trader. Lets throw some numbers around.

Let's assume that you use a 1:1 RR, and never move your stop or take profit just for simplicity sake and your profit and stop loss are always 1 atr(500) from the entry.

EV = (average) expected value in pips
EV = (average) expected value as expressed in % return on risk.
** all tables except the last one have the fractions truncated due to my lazyness.

USD CAD D1
ATR:155 Spread: 5 pips
Win rate EV EV in ROR
50% -5 -3%
60% 26 17%
70% 57 37%
80% 88 57%
90% 119 77%

USDCAD 4H
ATR:67 Spread 5 pips
Win rate EV EV in ROR
50% -5 -7%
60% 8 13%
70% 21 33%
80% 35 53%
90% 48 73%


USDCAD 1H
ATR:31 Spread 5 pips
Win rate EV EV in ROR
50% -5 -7%
60% 1 4%
70% 7 24%
80% 13 44%
90% 19 64%

USDCAD 15M
ATR:13 Spread 5 pips
Win rate EV EV in ROR
50% -5 -38%
60% -2 -18%
70% 0 2%
80% 2 22%
90% 5 42%

USDCAD 5M
ATR:7 Spread 5 pips
Win rate EV EV in ROR
50% -5 -71%
60% -3.6 -51%
70% -2.2 -31%
80% -0.8 -11%
90% 0.6 9%

As you can see the effect of the ratio of the risk and profit targets versus the spread can become enduring. ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A LESS THAN AWESOME WIN RATE. I have attached a very simple spreadsheet so you can try plugging in other winrate, spreads and ATR figures.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EVBook.zip   7 KB | 899 downloads
May all your fits be loose.
  • #36,265
  • Jul 4, 2009 3:28pm Jul 4, 2009 3:28pm
guys i notice a pb on the gbpjpy daily and weekly. do you guys think it would be a strong short? the weekly is bouncing off of the 38%fib

the daily is printing lower highs and admittingly the pb formed in a sideways market so ill give the pb a b but my lack of experience means i could definatly be wrong.

anyway im in demo for a while and watching the daily closely.

any advice would be great.
thanks, john

http://i42.tinypic.com/357r8rp.gif


http://i44.tinypic.com/f3i3de.gif
  • #36,266
  • Jul 4, 2009 4:10pm Jul 4, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting marcelnyo
I'm not a fast learner and I had to take more effort than anyone else to succeed at something, I have known that for awhile
Quoting marcelnyo
I'm slow
Marcel i would first of all change those beliefs about your self, the stongest force in the human personality its the need to remain consistent with how we define ourselves, if you think you are slow, you will act upon that belief subconsciously, wheater you like it or not and your reality will be exactly that.

That's just a belief u need to change, that u have probably picked up at some point in your life and its not helping you, maybe there are some ppl that can do it faster that you but anyway that belief all that does its to slow u down.

Work on that and remember "As you think, so shall you be" and "Whether You Think You Can or Can't, You're Right".


Cheers

Matty
  • #36,267
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:05pm Jul 4, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
Only one wife? What's wrong with you Badgers?
you have to have lots of success in FX if you can put up with more than ONE.........

I talk from 34 years of experience with one wife.......
  • #36,268
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:14pm Jul 4, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting Matiasfx
Marcel i would first of all change those beliefs about your self, the stongest force in the human personality its the need to remain consistent with how we define ourselves, if you think you are slow, you will act upon that belief subconsciously, wheater you like it or not and your reality will be exactly that.

That's just a belief u need to change, that u have probably picked up at some point in your life and its not helping you, maybe there are some ppl that can do it faster that you but anyway that belief all that does its to slow u down.

Work...
Sounds like Mark Douglas' stuff, have you got any good readings for the topic above? so far I've been trying to force myself into proactivity for 30 days, training... (7 habits of highly effective people), I've read the book for teens years ago and finally decide to re-read the original book from steven covey, I'm gonna have to review the first part.

Thanks a lot Matty.

Marcel.
  • #36,269
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:15pm Jul 4, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting albchr
Naaaa........not bad........at all.....
not at all

we can't live with them, but we also can't live without them!........
  • #36,270
  • Jul 4, 2009 5:46pm Jul 4, 2009 5:46pm
Quoting marcelnyo
Sounds like Mark Douglas' stuff, have you got any good readings for the topic above? so far I've been trying to force myself into proactivity for 30 days, training... (7 habits of highly effective people), I've read the book for teens years ago and finally decide to re-read the original book from steven covey, I'm gonna have to review the first part.

Thanks a lot Matty.

Marcel.
There are many ways to work on beliefs, self talk/image and changing habits and it will depend on yourself which approach will be best for you.

I'm personaly a self development junkie and it has helped me enourmously over the last few years to work on my self and how my mind works. (It will also depend in if you like a spiritual or non spiritual approach for the material to resonate better with you).

I will PM you some suggestions but i would say just be aware of this, and work on kowing youself and your mind.

Cheers

Mat
  • #36,271
  • Jul 4, 2009 6:07pm Jul 4, 2009 6:07pm
even if it happen it will not happen alone, every pair is a cobra now.

Quoting johnnykanoo
guys i notice a pb on the gbpjpy daily and weekly. do you guys think it would be a strong short? the weekly is bouncing off of the 38%fib

the daily is printing lower highs and admittingly the pb formed in a sideways market so ill give the pb a b but my lack of experience means i could definatly be wrong.

anyway im in demo for a while and watching the daily closely.

any advice would be great.
thanks, john



  • #36,272
  • Jul 4, 2009 7:34pm Jul 4, 2009 7:34pm
Happy 4th of July to everyone!

Thank you to Jim and all the regulars who are so helpful and so insightful.

To the guys wanting to make it to the USA, best of luck. Until recently, did I fully realize how lucky I was to live here. Sadly, what once made this country great seems to be out of favor among the voters and the twits we put in office. Hope this country is still great by the time you make it here.

I'm 31, no woman for me. I gotta focus on this full time. Once I can trade successfully, then I will focus on finding a woman (and get rid of my dreaded full time job and weekend job). But it is easier to be single when you are 31 v. 18, at least for a man. So there is my advice, Ghous, LOL.

Enjoy your family and friends
  • #36,273
  • Edited 10:11pm Jul 4, 2009 8:02pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting albchr
Respectfully Bundy, I disagree. My style requires very tight initial stops and trailing stops that have to be set very quickly. It both works and has been very profitable for me. If I have to place separate and opposing orders for each of these, it will make this VERY difficult for me.
I didn't make it clear enough sorry.

Yes that WOULD be a pain if you had to enter seperate orders. But that's NOT the case. (The platform will do that for you automatically.)

What I was trying to say is that that box that pops up when you enter an order on a platform does all of that automatically for you. ...creating those seperate order tickets for you in the background without you having to deal with it.

The new rule just stops one ticket doing everything. By ONE ticket I don't mean the order entry box that comes up. ...I'm talking about a ticket representing the command to change your position. Your order entry box creates 3 tickets automatically for you. One for the entry, one for the stop, and one for the TP.

Trust me, you have nothing to worry about except maybe having to change to a broker who has a decent interface.

I suspect that MT4 can't do it properly by the way. We may need to wait for MT5!! (soon)


Quoting albchr
Naaaa........not bad........at all.....
lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #36,274
  • Jul 4, 2009 8:43pm Jul 4, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting StoragePro
Basber -

Thank you for sharing this. I have friends from Iran, they ache to go back, but realize that they cannot due to the conditions there. All of them have lost family to the current regime.

Americans celebrate their freedom today, but that has been an ongoing process for us when every so often the country goes through a painful period of change and adjustment. I believe we may be entering a period right now - the first since the turmoil of the 1960's. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

When I read things like you have...
Simply beautiful. I think my eyes welled up.

Happy 4th of July.


Thanks SP.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #36,275
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:12pm Jul 4, 2009 9:12pm
Quoting ghous
If you know how to make money on the lower time frames you can make it BIG I haven't been around the arena long enough to experience anything like that yet but the little I know abt the lower time frames proved the above quoted statement well to me.

There's big money for the pros on the lower time frames, and stupid newbies who want to flee from boredom feed them.
Yep the main difference between the smaller timeframes is that news can interfere with your technical analysis more and the speed that you have to make a decession is very fast. So when you loose you have to get over it very fast and have no emotions involved and get ready for the next setup. Thats why its harder because emotions are more involved but thats about the only difference I have thrue the different timeframes myself.
  • #36,276
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:31pm Jul 4, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting bundyraider
I didn't make it clear enough sorry....
I'm not sure that I like the new rules either, because, lets say we have a good PB setup up against resistence, where price has not broken below the PB to trigger the entry, and I would like to put on a pending order with a stoploss in place, before I go to work. I would not be able to do that with the new rules as I understand it. Because I would be afraid that the 'entry order' that serves as a stoploss would be triggered, instead of the entry order I intended to enter on. ( sorry if I sound too confusing )
But then on the other hand I am not sure that I would like to transfer my account to a broker in another country, because I understand that then they would charge fees for converging $ into another currency, every time I would deposit or withdraw funds.
So I'm not sure what to do, I can't see that they are trying to protect traders with these new rules, to me it seems the opposite will happen!!!
Why could'nt they just leave it the way it was
Ok, now I think I'm done whinning
You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.
  • #36,277
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:47pm Jul 4, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting sas
I'm not sure that I like the new rules either, because, lets say we have a good PB setup up against resistence, where price has not broken below the PB to trigger the entry, and I would like to put on a pending order with a stoploss in place, before I go to work. I would not be able to do that with the new rules as I understand it. Because I would be afraid that the 'entry order' that serves as a stoploss would be triggered, instead of the entry order I intended to enter on. ( sorry if I sound too confusing )
But then on the other hand...
Hello
Im with Oanda and as far as i know we don't have to worry about those rule changes. What i do and you can also do this is use the MT4 charts from another platform and place your trades with Oanda. Thant way you don't have to worry about changing currencies and being charged for it, among other things. Just something to think about
  • #36,278
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:56pm Jul 4, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting rtiger29
Hello
Im with Oanda and as far as i know we don't have to worry about those rule changes. What i do and you can also do this is use the MT4 charts from another platform and place your trades with Oanda. Thant way you don't have to worry about changing currencies and being charged for it, among other things. Just something to think about

Thanks rtiger

But just to be clear, you are saying that with Oanda you will still be able to put in stoploss and limit orders after the new rules take effect?
You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.
  • #36,279
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:56pm Jul 4, 2009 9:56pm
Fellow traders i just want to share my stste of spirit of today. just arrived home from Washington DC sweet comemoration around. I'm going to play a little more outside. Anyway this day makes me remember my objective in life... beeing independent thru forex if possible and help all the others i can to find their freedom and hapiness thru what the realy like to do in life. Happy independece day to all. God bless us all, and happy piping for another week
  • #36,280
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:03pm Jul 4, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting sas
I'm not sure that I like the new rules either, because, lets say we have a good PB setup up against resistence, where price has not broken below the PB to trigger the entry, and I would like to put on a pending order with a stoploss in place, before I go to work. I would not be able to do that with the new rules as I understand it. Because I would be afraid that the 'entry order' that serves as a stoploss would be triggered, instead of the entry order I intended to enter on. ( sorry if I sound too confusing )
THE NEW RULE WON'T CHANGE A THING.

Forget what you read about all the conspiracy theories and crap and how you will have to go overseas. Wipe it from your memory.

And YES OANDA does it the correct way that complies. You just place an order like normal with your stop loss and TP and so on. NOTHING has changed. ....Just a couple of brokers will have to re-write their platforms to record orders the correct way.

The ONLY issue for some people may be the new maximum leverage rule.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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