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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #36,201
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:24am Jul 4, 2009 9:24am
Hellp everyone,

Attached the CADJPY Weekly chart, it looks like last week the trendline was tested after the the week before the trendline is broken. I smell this pair will have a strong sell off if it broke hard on 82.

I will go short below 82 and use the method that Jarroo teachs me, "Let's see how hard it breaks"

First closest target I will take is 81 to be safe, 80.30 might be ok too.
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Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #36,202
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:24am Jul 4, 2009 9:24am
My answers in bold

Aaron

Tia:

4% a month,
observe all m-m rules,
stay with 2% acc stop/loss on every order, never over-leverage with a bigger position than acc,
I am not sure you understand money management properly. If the most you risk is 2% (for example) then the most you lose will be 2% of your account. That is not even remotely close to a position bigger than your account. Learning proper money management is crucial to survival. No matter how big your stop loss it should always be a fixed percentage of your account in monetary terms.

only trade daily/weekly T/F...
trading 6hr a day in London 10am ~ US noon session...

If you are only trading daily and weekly why does it matter which sessions you trade? Surely you look at the charts once a day, at the daily close?

add this all together are they possible?
I am not proven so I am not so sure.

It's always dangerous to have monthly expectations. You take what the market gives you. But if you are risking two percent of your account, then 4% a month is very very possible.

to me I think 1-2% a month average over a year is very good if risk is low (aka draw-down)

I agree. With 12% a year you are doing better than most on Wall Street. Bu be wary of trying to avoid all drawdown. Some drawdown is inevitable. Even A+++ setups fail. This is a game of probabilities and you will have losses. We use good money management to ensure that our losses don't hit us too bad

if I can do 1%/month or 12% a year I'll put all money in, but now not convinced yet....

This is what demo is for. Reading post one of this thread outlines an approach which it is highly recommended that you follow. This helps build your confidence and convince you without risking a penny.

For now conecentrate on learning good money management and position sizing. Make sure you understand concepts like asymmetric leverage and granularity (google them). And learn and demo the basics. The rewards flow after that.
  • #36,203
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:24am Jul 4, 2009 9:24am
Quoting TiaForex
(Again, the following post was sparked by Josh, but not directed at him. He knows all this, it just got me thinking... )

Ryan lived in his car for a little while I think.

I am pretty sure he didn't have a wife and kids in there with him though.

It's great to dream big. Even if you have a small account yo van make magic with steady monthly returns, small additions to your account and above all else compounding.

For example, if you start with a $5000 dollar account, and can add $100 a month to it. And if you're making 4% a month and compounding...
Exactly Aaron. If a trader has the proper perspective, astounding results can happen over time. IMO, the biggest obstacle is ourselves. 4% is achievable on dailies with a small risk. That's in the ballpark of what I've averaged in my first 6 months with this method...

Quoting clockwork71
Only one wife? What's wrong with you Badgers?
Good point... we'll see what turns up at this wedding I'm in later today...maybe I can 'add to my position.'
  • #36,204
  • Edited 9:40am Jul 4, 2009 9:28am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting moneda

the third one which was a 2 bar Pin bar was the weakest among the three...but just goes on to show what PA with the trend can do. The trend was well set by that mighty bearish pin bar, and this PA setup just adhered to it.

Ghous,

Thanks for the charts...Regarding the above statement I am not sure if one could have determined that the trend was well set by the...

Hi Moneda,
Quote
Regarding the above statement I am not sure if one could have determined that the trend was well set by the big bearish PB at the time that those two pinbars occurred...It is only after the breakout of the 1.60 area that we can call it a new swing/trend
 What I was basically referring to was the momentum well set by the swing high pin bar, and since a trend forms only when either of the two parties (bulls and bears) shows dominance over the other this is clearly a trend,

 The point you're missing here is that a trend doesn't always have to be long term and show up on the higher time frames. Every ranging market consists of many small trends, the key word here being "small".

 Let me use the current example.

 Look at the chart below and just give it a thoughtless single glance. Is it a bearish trend?

 It's the mini trend on the 4H which doesn't look like one on that time frame. Bob was shouting his heart out saying lower time frames carry the money, a lot of senior pros supported him you know why?

 Simply because the higher time frame trader just sees a stupid ranging market on his Gu weekly, daily chart, while the trader on the lower time frame still has his trends and supporting PA.

 The highlighted blue region in the chart is the 8H Pb I marked in my previous posts, had it appeared on the 15 min would you have thought even twice abt taking it in terms of going against a trend or trading in a ranging market?

 Bob shouted his heart out saying the lower time frames carry the money, and he was dead right. (putting aside the fact that the risk on the lower time frames is also much much higher than on the higher time frames.)

 Abt me using higher time frame trends even when on lower time frames, I do it very often and it sure is a great kind of "confluence" that you can use.

Regards,
 Ghous.
Attached Images
I believe . . .
  • #36,205
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:30am Jul 4, 2009 9:30am
Quoting billye
oh, so housing market is still unliquid and under priced (vs peak) in US now?

Ummm....say what? You either misunderstood my post or didn't read all of it.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #36,206
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:33am Jul 4, 2009 9:33am
Quoting markmm
Are you posting from Iran? They also have U.K. assembly workers up on trial! Can see a war in the not too distant future. If Iran attacks Israel then its WW 3.
It's Weekend, So I Think It's Not Annoying To Reply To It Yes I Am Posting From Iran, And I Know About The British Assembly Workers, But I Don't Think They Attack Israel ... There Are Many Reasons That Almost Everyone In Here Is Sure About It. I Have Many Friends In Here, And No One Is Going To Fight For This Assholes. Let Me Tell You Something, They Don't Even Care About Their Own People, So It's Not That Shocking That They Do Such A Thing Like They Do To Biritish Workers ... You Can't Imagine How Much They Are Hated By High Percentage Of People, Specially In Big Towns ... There Are Many Video s On UTube , But Many Of Them Are In Persian Language ... You Can Watch There What They Have Done To Us ...
You Can Search "تظاهرات" & "تهران" & "خرداد 88" & درگیری" & ... And Sort Them By Newest To See The Videos ... If It's Illigal To Talk About It In Here , Tell Me To Edit The Post And Delete It I'm Not Exposing Anything, I'm Just Telling Some Pains In My Heart About My People

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #36,207
  • Jul 4, 2009 9:34am Jul 4, 2009 9:34am
Quoting Jduester
..maybe I can 'add to my position.'
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #36,208
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:01am Jul 4, 2009 10:01am
Quoting TiaForex
(Again, the following post was sparked by Josh, but not directed at him. He knows all this, it just got me thinking... )

Ryan lived in his car for a little while I think.

I am pretty sure he didn't have a wife and kids in there with him though.

It's great to dream big. Even if you have a small account yo van make magic with steady monthly returns, small additions to your account and above all else compounding.

For example, if you start with a $5000 dollar account, and can add $100 a month to it. And if you're making 4% a month and compounding...


Yep as long as the numbers do not freak you out you can build up that much money in the long run. Also I was 23 at the time I started to learn how to trade and really made it my life, also my Girlfriend now wife at the time supported me, got a job just to give me money to lose in the market but she knew it was a team effort and she was behind me even after blowing up a few times.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #36,209
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:03am Jul 4, 2009 10:03am
Quoting TiaForex
(Again, the following post was sparked by Josh, but not directed at him. He knows all this, it just got me thinking... )

Ryan lived in his car for a little while I think.

I am pretty sure he didn't have a wife and kids in there with him though.

It's great to dream big. Even if you have a small account yo van make magic with steady monthly returns, small additions to your account and above all else compounding.

For example, if you start with a $5000 dollar account, and can add $100 a month to it. And if you're making 4% a month and compounding...
Fantastic post, Tia!
That´s what I call being in for the long haul...

RM
  • #36,210
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:13am Jul 4, 2009 10:13am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yep as long as the numbers do not freak you out you can build up that much money in the long run. Also I was 23 at the time I started to learn how to trade and really made it my life, also my Girlfriend now wife at the time supported me, got a job just to give me money to lose in the market but she knew it was a team effort and she was behind me even after blowing up a few times.

That's so cool Ryan! My wife is behind me too...with a bat saying you better not screw this up! God I love this woman...LOL
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #36,211
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:14am Jul 4, 2009 10:14am
thanks for very detail & patient answers! Tia, see my comments...

My answers in bold
Aaron
Tia:

4% a month,
observe all m-m rules,
stay with 2% acc stop/loss on every order, never over-leverage with a bigger position than acc,
I am not sure you understand money management properly. If the most you risk is 2% (for example) then the most you lose will be 2% of your account. That is not even remotely close to a position bigger than your account. Learning proper money management is crucial to survival. No matter how big your stop loss it should always be a fixed percentage of your account in monetary terms.
yes understand, but sometimes hard to accept it.

only trade daily/weekly T/F...
trading 6hr a day in London 10am ~ US noon session...

If you are only trading daily and weekly why does it matter which sessions you trade? Surely you look at the charts once a day, at the daily close?
well... I actually view daily trends but trade off H4 S/R levels and if position is open, sometimes zoom to H1 to see things jumping...
could daily T/F trading avoid watching market? that sounds great..

add this all together are they possible?
I am not proven so I am not so sure.

It's always dangerous to have monthly expectations. You take what the market gives you.
okey... I mean average 12% a year then divide by 12 is 1% avg/month. I do make mistakes when trying to keep above a goal every day in the past.

But if you are risking two percent of your account, then 4% a month is very very possible.
to me I think 1-2% a month average over a year is very good if risk is low (aka draw-down)
I agree. With 12% a year you are doing better than most on Wall Street.
perhaps doable with small acc... is 1% avg a month really possible with all my money in it? fear...

Bu be wary of trying to avoid all drawdown. Some drawdown is inevitable. Even A+++ setups fail. This is a game of probabilities and you will have losses. We use good money management to ensure that our losses don't hit us too bad
okey, I have a bad habit here which is resist accepting loss and hold into a bigger one, when couple with a greedy of overleverage... it can be disaster sometimes.

if I can do 1%/month or 12% a year I'll put all money in, but now not convinced yet....
This is what demo is for. Reading post one of this thread outlines an approach which it is highly recommended that you follow. This helps build your confidence and convince you without risking a penny.
I can see that 3 month strait profitable is a good self confidence and will give experience on how is a realistic take/profit to exit from... but sometimes impatient to wait that long...

For now conecentrate on learning good money management and position sizing. Make sure you understand concepts like asymmetric leverage and granularity (google them).
ok I see asym leverage means losing 50% will take another 100% gain in order to recover... granularity means position size scale with acc like what oanda offers?
And learn and demo the basics. The rewards flow after that.

thanks again for very detail & patient answers again!
  • #36,212
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:15am Jul 4, 2009 10:15am
Quoting ghous
Here's the Gu 4H chart with tradable PA setups over a month approx.

Was just going through them over the weekend and thought I would share.

Again...

Great bars at good locations doing what they are supposed to do.

Regards,
Ghous.

This is one of the proper and easy ways to stay profitable in a ranging market unless you're crazy dude like me....
  • #36,213
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:16am Jul 4, 2009 10:16am
Quoting ghous


 Regards,
 Ghous.

Hi Moneda,


 What I was basically referring to was the momentum well set by the swing high pin bar, and since a trend forms only when either of the two parties (bulls and bears) shows dominance over the other this is clearly a trend,
I see your point and I am not going to unvalidate your definition but if we don't take into consideration pa after the double pb, it looks more like a strong bearish move (during Non Farm news) meeting support at the 1.60 several times, followed by a retracement. Sorry, I don't see a clear trend unless you go into lower timeframes.
The point you're missing here is that a trend doesn't always have to be long term and show up on the higher time frames. Every ranging market consists of many small trends, the key word here being "small".
I am not missing this particular point....the above is basic stuff.
 Let me use the current example.

 Look at the chart below and just give it a thoughtless single glance. Is it a bearish trend?

Yes

 It's the mini trend on the 4H which doesn't look like one on that time frame. Bob was shouting his heart out saying lower time frames carry the money, a lot of senior pros supported him you know why?

 Simply because the higher time frame trader just sees a stupid ranging market on his Gu weekly, daily chart, while the trader on the lower time frame still has his trends and supporting PA.
Yes
 The highlighted blue region in the chart is the 8H Pb I marked in my previous posts, had it appeared on the 15 min would you have thought even twice abt taking it in terms of going against a trend or trading in a ranging market?
On the 15min what I see is a downtrend with a pullback in the blue region. I would have probably not traded until the trend continued or a clear reversal was at hand
 Bob shouted his heart out saying the lower time frames carry the money, and he was dead right. (putting aside the fact that the risk on the lower time frames is also much much higher than on the higher time frames.)
Agree
 Abt me using higher time frame trends even when on lower time frames, I do it very often and it sure is a great kind of "confluence" that you can use.
 Same here but I prefer to stick to a timeframe.

Thanks for your perspective...it is always a good thing to see other people's perspective.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #36,214
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:25am Jul 4, 2009 10:25am
Quoting ghous
Nah!

That's how I would be sitting if I can could get hold of Rac's crystal ball.

That looks like one satisfied kitty. lol
You're funny..., I'm not that old.
Here's something for you. My local buddy Nick flying.... he's your age Ghous.

Inserted Video
  • #36,215
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:30am Jul 4, 2009 10:30am
Quoting krue
Hi, bobability, I guess he is referring to the uptrend as indicated by his upward red line, the pin touches the upward trendline in red, from that perspective, ...
This is what I thought also.. I'd be going long on the break of that pin off of red TL with stop below the pin... and going short on that pin (few bars later) after the tl break.
  • #36,216
  • Jul 4, 2009 10:51am Jul 4, 2009 10:51am
Quoting Jduester
Guess we're at different points in our lives....
Yeah - I hear that. I remember paying $275 a month for a three room apartment. We did not have jack. Did not know jack. A pizza, an order of wings and a jug of Gallo wine was living large! Simpler times - and I miss >some< of that simplicity.

I think nearly everyone starts off dead broke and not even knowing it. Some stay that way for a long time - I did.

Cheers!
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #36,217
  • Jul 4, 2009 11:25am Jul 4, 2009 11:25am
Basber -

Thank you for sharing this. I have friends from Iran, they ache to go back, but realize that they cannot due to the conditions there. All of them have lost family to the current regime.

Americans celebrate their freedom today, but that has been an ongoing process for us when every so often the country goes through a painful period of change and adjustment. I believe we may be entering a period right now - the first since the turmoil of the 1960's. It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

When I read things like you have told us here, I get ill over the attention we give our comparatively small problems. No one here is in fear for their lives because of what they think or say. Anyone here can choose what they wish to be, and achieve it.

We speak freely, move about freely, choose our mates freely, freely decide how large or small our family will be, choose a religion as it suits us personally, and are free to choose to not worship. I can read what I wish. I can publish whatever I decide - and am encouraged to do so. I can tell the world that the President is no good. Or I can sing his praises. I can debate my government to it's face - in full public view. And if I make sense, our free press will press it forward for me, and we all win. If I do not like my lot in life, I can change it. If my wife dishonors me, I can divorce her, but her life, freedom and safety is guaranteed.

I can fulfill the dreams undreamt.

We have it very, very good. Basber - be well, be safe. It is the hope of every American that you can have the same freedoms someday. But not according to our thoughts, but in accord with the thoughts, hopes and dreams of all Persians. Tell your friends that all Americans wish them well this day.

Cheers!

Quoting Basber
It's Weekend, So I Think It's Not Annoying To Reply To It Yes I Am Posting From Iran, And I Know About The British Assembly Workers, But I Don't Think They Attack Israel ... There Are Many Reasons That Almost Everyone In Here Is Sure About It. I Have Many Friends In Here, And No One Is Going To Fight For This Assholes. Let Me Tell You Something, They Don't Even Care About Their Own People, So It's Not That Shocking That They Do Such A Thing Like They Do To Biritish Workers ... You Can't Imagine How Much They Are Hated By High Percentage Of People,...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #36,218
  • Jul 4, 2009 11:32am Jul 4, 2009 11:32am
Quoting albchr
That's so cool Ryan! My wife is behind me too...with a bat saying you better not screw this up! God I love this woman...LOL
LOL Chris!!!
  • #36,219
  • Jul 4, 2009 11:54am Jul 4, 2009 11:54am
Quoting albchr
That's so cool Ryan! My wife is behind me too...with a bat saying you better not screw this up! God I love this woman...LOL

Chris,

I have this sneaking suspicion that you are gonna do ok.
  • #36,220
  • Jul 4, 2009 12:20pm Jul 4, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting TiaForex

It's great to dream big. Even if you have a small account yo van make magic with steady monthly returns, small additions to your account and above all else compounding.

For example, if you start with a $5000 dollar account, and can add $100 a month to it. And if you're making 4% a month and compounding it, guess what that is worth in 5 years?

$76,397.21

As usual, Tia gets another hit. You speak well.


I've said it before, TIME is on your side. Use it to the full. Consistency + Time = Long Term Success.



If you want some convincing about what Tia posted - particularly the piece on ADDING to your account monthly, do the math with, and without additional dollars going in. Say you don't have the money? Work a weekend day and get it. You won't die. And you'll have GREAT stories to tell your children and grandchildren. It is like magic.

TIME is on your side baby! If you are like me, and have an expensive wife who does not work outside the home, TIME is what you must put to work.

You can do this, or trust the company you work for to do you right when you finally retire. (GM anyone?)
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
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