Will be seeking price action to short this puppy in the longer term...this does not mean I wont be seeking longs in the shorter term but I feel like preety soon it should fall....
james16 Chart Thread
- #36,162
- Jul 4, 2009 2:35am Jul 4, 2009 2:35am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: when dreamer meets reality | 1,397 Posts
... my calc show over the next 3 months
either way break out probability is 84%
continue ranging probability is 16%
so for buy & hold or sell & hold strategy, ranging is a risky trading coz direction is not clear and potential loss is bigger than potential gain.
usd/chf is ranging 1.06~1.10 and no one thinks it will stay there forever right?
either way break out probability is 84%
continue ranging probability is 16%
so for buy & hold or sell & hold strategy, ranging is a risky trading coz direction is not clear and potential loss is bigger than potential gain.
usd/chf is ranging 1.06~1.10 and no one thinks it will stay there forever right?
A similar situation up at the Eu 4h.
- #36,164
- Jul 4, 2009 3:09am Jul 4, 2009 3:09am
- Joined Feb 2008 | Status: sucker for punishment | 2,444 Posts
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
The new NFA rules are NOT bad!
Guys, it's all good!
...It does NOT mean you can't have stop / limit orders etc. It just specifies that they can't take a certain form that's evident in some platforms.
The rule just states that a broker will not be able to have a "close" based option tied exclusively to an individual position (or order ticket)....
- #36,167
- Jul 4, 2009 3:58am Jul 4, 2009 3:58am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts
Hello everyone,
i just want to share this trade i will take on monday . I see BUOB on the Daily chart. Comments are much apreciated.
aLLerGiC
- #36,168
- Jul 4, 2009 4:26am Jul 4, 2009 4:26am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
... my calc show over the next 3 months
either way break out probability is 84%
continue ranging probability is 16%
so for buy & hold or sell & hold strategy, ranging is a risky trading coz direction is not clear and potential loss is bigger than potential gain.
usd/chf is ranging 1.06~1.10 and no one thinks it will stay there forever right?
my calc show over the next 3 months
either way break out probability is 84%
continue ranging probability is 16%
The game is not about predicting what will happen but taking the initiative to act according to what does happen.
so for buy & hold or sell & hold strategy, ranging is a risky trading coz direction is not clear and potential loss is bigger than potential gain.
That said ranging markets can be treated differently by different traders while using the same concept, depending on level of comfort for the individual trader.
usd/chf is ranging 1.06~1.10 and no one thinks it will stay there forever right?
But look at it like you look at divergence. The Macd gives lower highs and price gives you higher highs...legitimate bearish divergence. So what do you do sell? You wait for PA or a price pattern because although the divergence won't last forever there is no guarantee on when and by how much will price fall.
Similiarly I really consider such anticipations useless, usd/chf is ranging, so what? If it contiues to range we'll stay on the lowers and trade the mini trends (if you're a newbie you'll stay on the side lines enjoying life) if it breaks we look for supporting PA. That's it,
Let's put it this way, In a ranging market on the 4h if I short of a great pin bar for example which is clearly headed for a ppz 150 pips away, no way am I cutting my profits. (taking profit early complying to Billy's statment "so for buy & hold or sell & hold strategy, ranging is a risky trading")
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #36,170
- Edited 5:00am Jul 4, 2009 4:49am | Edited 5:00am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: when dreamer meets reality | 1,397 Posts
- #36,171
- Jul 4, 2009 4:59am Jul 4, 2009 4:59am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Conscious Incompetence | 3,274 Posts
Here's the Gu 4H chart with tradable PA setups over a month approx.
Was just going through them over the weekend and thought I would share.
Again...
Great bars at good locations doing what they are supposed to do.
Regards,
Ghous.
I love your work, but can you double check those 8 hr pins on your feed? I used periodcon with IBFX and made an 8 HR chart and some of those 8 HR pins are not pins. They worked out, but technically not pins on IBFX. What feed are you using?
Here is a 8 HR IBFX pic, please double check that I picked out the same locations.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
- #36,172
- Jul 4, 2009 5:00am Jul 4, 2009 5:00am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #36,173
- Jul 4, 2009 5:12am Jul 4, 2009 5:12am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #36,175
- Jul 4, 2009 5:27am Jul 4, 2009 5:27am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Pussy had a margin call. LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_8PIAkgOvk
That's how I would be sitting if I can could get hold of Rac's crystal ball.
That looks like one satisfied kitty. lol
I believe . . .
- #36,176
- Jul 4, 2009 5:32am Jul 4, 2009 5:32am
Nah!
That's how I would be sitting if I can could get hold of Rac's crystal ball.
That looks like one satisfied kitty. lol
But I'd gladly experience that feeling.
- #36,177
- Jul 4, 2009 6:03am Jul 4, 2009 6:03am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts
Will be seeking price action to short this puppy
Surely not Shermenator slipping up?
Gone to a better place
- #36,178
- Edited 6:28am Jul 4, 2009 6:11am | Edited 6:28am
- | Joined Feb 2009 | Status: when dreamer meets reality | 1,397 Posts
I always take note of your analysis Sherm, but I'm a bit surprised you didn't mention the clean break, re-test and rejection of .8000 ?
Attachment
Surely not Shermenator slipping up?
and a short aud/usd 0.80 at a broker swap free.
both using 10x leverage... anticipated ROI is 6% a year of initial deposit.
return is not high but it's risk free so long as price don't offset >10%.
why pick 0.80?
because highest high on daily T/F is 0.99, and cent-bank bottom is 0.60, so 0.80 is a good mid level and risk of price offset 10% and cause to margin call is lowest....
probably other swap rate hedging arbitrator also pick this as a safety center price,
if the majority buck of money don't like to move. then small money cannot move it quick as well I guess.
it's like many people sleeping on the elephant and now you want to push the elephant moving...
what will move the market big is probably when people anticipate big violatility of the pair -> inducing >10% movement,
so all the arbi close the position in 1 hour... this will cause big movement of the pair otherwise probably just holding it.
- #36,179
- Jul 4, 2009 6:13am Jul 4, 2009 6:13am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,480 Posts
The new NFA rules are NOT bad!
Guys, it's all good!
(And leverage over 100:1 not allowed? Who cares? lol That's quite reasonable)
In my particular situation (which is well known by now I hope), having to make a LOT of money off a very small account quickly, I also rely on 200:1 leverage. At 200:1 the margin requirement for 1 lot is $500. At 100:1 it's $1000 thus cutting my "headroom" and position sizing ability in half.
This might not matter for you folks with large accounts or the ability to place very small % trades because you're building a "nest egg" and as long as you're making money, it doesn't matter how much, but I can assure you it's DEVASTATING for me.
It's funny, I'd much rather keep a US broker "due" to regulations, but I'm afraid I'll have to go offshore because of "too far" reaching ones. I maintain my opinion in my post you quoted. The NFA should protect us from unscrupulous broker practices that rip us off but NOT dictate how we can trade.
It's also funny that this thread is all about the new trader when it comes to learning to trade effectively and safely yet at the same time, it seems that the position or needs of those new traders is simply assumed to be the same as you big guys...LOL. It's not.
I've spent almost a year learning and developing a style that works for me. I'm now in a position where I have to live off of trading. I have no more time to adjust or replace that style. In a nutshell, unless I move offshore, my style is doomed and so is my family......
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
- #36,180
- Jul 4, 2009 6:18am Jul 4, 2009 6:18am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,036 Posts
Not me Doctor!!! I'm in it for the money. Period the end. I see no other reason to work at all - except for the cash.
500 bucks? That bought me dinner - One Night at a nice place in NYC this week, and it could have been more, but I throttled back on the wine ...
6K of monthly expenses is not unusual. Buy a nice home at half a mil (or more). Add in a couple of nice cars, lawn crew and one expensive wife (aren't they all??) and 6K actually looks cheap to me!
But I'm just sayin'....
I guess what I should have said was that at my point in my life, I can't imagine 6K of monthly overhead. We are all in trading for different reasons and sometimes I forget that. My reasons will probably change too as I become more profitable.
But I still think you can make it work if you want it badly enough. Didn't Ryan live dirt cheap for a while until he started to hit good returns? Thought I read that somewhere...
Live like no one else now so that someday you can live like no one else... Dream big and set goals. Good perspective Storage Pro and Chris.
Back to catching up on the thread...
Josh