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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,261
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:47pm Jul 1, 2009 10:47pm
currently 11am (GMT +8) seems like eur usd is forming the round btm, and given the slight bearish divergence I see on macd ( much higher top on price, but same level on macd), I expect a down move?

However current price is ~1.411, 90 pips from the top already, though macd just shows red.
  • #20,262
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:55pm Jul 1, 2009 10:55pm
Quoting xeneric
Great trades I was watching GU and I thought your TP on GU got hit too. What happened ?
I mistakenly opened 0.5 lot (1 pip=5$) and i was afraid so it did went up and set the SL at BE and it came back.
  • #20,263
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:24pm Jul 1, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting yuan83
currently 11am (GMT +8) seems like eur usd is forming the round btm, and given the slight bearish divergence I see on macd ( much higher top on price, but same level on macd), I expect a down move?

However current price is ~1.411, 90 pips from the top already, though macd just shows red.
On 4H EU is holding on 50% retracment and 8 EMA and if it break's these further down are 61.8% and 21 EMA if EU turns back up from 61.8% it would be a strong reversel and a TC on Macd of course the trade would be also W/trend. I don't like the look of round top here

On 1H there is a trendline (in 4H also) inside bar Resistance line and at down 61.8% there is 89SMA also. (in 4H 21EMA) and EU would form a ZB if it turns back up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4h.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1h.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #20,264
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:05am Jul 2, 2009 12:05am
GBPAUD just breaks out

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #20,265
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:09am Jul 2, 2009 1:09am
Quoting xeneric
Jinsen, I hope you banked lots of pips.
lol.....got whipped out when it retraced earlier on my be.
But secured profits already. no loss. although disappointed at their trending momentum.
  • #20,266
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:59am Jul 2, 2009 1:59am
For some moment my chart's disappeared and the conversation appeared between GU and EU.



GbpUsd: Come on man come with me let's jump in pool and we will swim around and enjoy.

EurUsd: No we have to stop this ranging bs it's a whole month now people are not happy and they are loosing money.

GbpUsd: ohhh stop caring about those loosers it's fun sitting around here we don't have to just climb up and down always we need rest.

EurUsd: I am going up the hill and if u wan't to sit here ok you r on your own..........
hey hey leave my hand............................................................


see what happens.
  • #20,267
  • Jul 2, 2009 3:38am Jul 2, 2009 3:38am
technicals go out the window. if you've got a breakout strategy AND a broker who honours stop entries, has fixed spreads and doesn't slip you to an account shattering end, then you could try and catch a flyer. You'll be exposed to sharp reversals and order delays/platform freeze are the norm. Be warned! 1230 GMT. 4 hours...
  • #20,268
  • Jul 2, 2009 3:47am Jul 2, 2009 3:47am
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
  • #20,269
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:15am Jul 2, 2009 10:15am
Quoting yuan83
currently 11am (GMT +8) seems like eur usd is forming the round btm, and given the slight bearish divergence I see on macd ( much higher top on price, but same level on macd), I expect a down move?

However current price is ~1.411, 90 pips from the top already, though macd just shows red.

awww so i was right about this trade but unfortunately i gave it a miss.
  • #20,270
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:34am Jul 2, 2009 10:34am
Quoting yuan83
awww so i was right about this trade but unfortunately i gave it a miss.
The price was right about the H&S neck line and bearish chart pattern was formed during a light volume session,

The max profit for short is about 60 pips(monthly pivot), stop loss can be easily take out at false break out.

For me, it is wise to stood on the sideline at that time

David
  • #20,271
  • Edited 8:16pm Jul 2, 2009 7:21pm | Edited 8:16pm
The fall in the DOW JONES recently has prompted a fall in EU. It has now closed below the 89 and 200 SMAs.

It is also at the bottom of the yellow channel. Will it fall through or will it bounce up ?

If it falls through then the next TP should be the purple line which is the neckline of the head and shoulders that we spoke about in mid June which provides good support. If it falls through there, we should aim for the red line which is the bottom of the daily channel.

I have included a chart of the daily which shows this clearer.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1dr.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #20,272
  • Jul 2, 2009 7:25pm Jul 2, 2009 7:25pm
Just a reminder that it is a US bank holiday today so the US session should be relatively quiet.
  • #20,273
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:29pm Jul 2, 2009 9:29pm
Quoting xeneric
The fall in the DOW JONES recently has prompted a fall in EU. It has now closed below the 89 and 200 SMAs.

It is also at the bottom of the yellow channel. Will it fall through or will it bounce up ?

If it falls through then the next TP should be the purple line which is the neckline of the head and shoulders that we spoke about in mid June which provides good support. If it falls through there, we should aim for the red line which is the bottom of the daily channel.

I have included a chart of the daily which shows this clearer.
if u ask me, it looks like it is going to turn around but macd hasn't shown that. Hai i bought in at the previous candle, only to be stopped out and reverse!
  • #20,274
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:54pm Jul 2, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting yuan83
if u ask me, it looks like it is going to turn around but macd hasn't shown that. Hai i bought in at the previous candle, only to be stopped out and reverse!
There will be some indecision around the trendline as the bulls and bears fight it out. The 8 EMA is far away too and needs to catch up.
  • #20,275
  • Jul 3, 2009 5:48am Jul 3, 2009 5:48am
i just saw or realise, maybe i m slow, that there is a bearish divergence on daily chart. all i can say is, this is scary!
  • #20,276
  • Jul 3, 2009 12:00pm Jul 3, 2009 12:00pm
See. Maybe a TC signal on E/U...But what should we do?

This red trend line, the lower side of triangle, 89 and 200 MA could be a strong support, and could make this turn around and fly up.

I think I will wait for a breakout of the triangle. What about you? Will somebody take the trade?

Suba

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/8240/imagem0307.png
  • #20,277
  • Jul 3, 2009 12:28pm Jul 3, 2009 12:28pm
Eurusd got no rhythm now. The 89 and 200 are entangle.
Doesnt show any defined direction at all.

Skip it. Let the action begin after tuesday. Resting time
  • #20,278
  • Jul 3, 2009 1:47pm Jul 3, 2009 1:47pm
Thanks Phillip, where are you from?
  • #20,279
  • Jul 3, 2009 7:57pm Jul 3, 2009 7:57pm
Quoting Suba
See. Maybe a TC signal on E/U...But what should we do?

This red trend line, the lower side of triangle, 89 and 200 MA could be a strong support, and could make this turn around and fly up.

I think I will wait for a breakout of the triangle. What about you? Will somebody take the trade?

Suba

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/8240/imagem0307.png
Hi i dunno if my drawing wrong or what but for me, the last part is actually outside the support line, that is to say, the curve caused by the candle is actually due to inability to go back to the support line..

Anyway GU also seem to be consolidating for a further large movement or sth
  • #20,280
  • Edited 9:37pm Jul 3, 2009 8:45pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting yuan83
Hi i dunno if my drawing wrong or what but for me, the last part is actually outside the support line, that is to say, the curve caused by the candle is actually due to inability to go back to the support line..

Anyway GU also seem to be consolidating for a further large movement or sth
Yes, different people may have slightly different trendlines. Nevertheless, I would take the TC if price breaks through the bottom orange trendline next week with an engulfing candle. We need that engulfing candle because the small candles still show indecision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 36 KB
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