Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 422 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,421
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:01pm Jul 1, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting dwildes
Just sold.

I'll buy again when it hits .4100 area..

Also, question to Jacko - how would tomorrows NFP change your bias to the pair? You said many times don't trade the news releases, but you wan to base your opinion on it?

Shouldn't we adhere to "trade what you see, not trade what you think"?
  • #8,422
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:01pm Jul 1, 2009 12:01pm
Hi, dwildes.

Good entry, but according to your chart and the time frame used, I think a 100 pip stop loss is too tight . . . and (more than likely) will be hit.

I understand the former 50 pip TSL and the move to the 100 pip TSL due to increased volatility. However, seeing EUR/USD's daily ATR is 250+ pips, it may be wise to either nurse this position from a smaller time frame, or increase the stop loss to allow for breathe-ability.

Furthermore, with the NFP reports being released this week, we may see a jump north, which could prematurely hit 100 pip stop losses.

My recommendation would be to nurse this position from a smaller time frame (4H), and then to take profits at S+R levels because we really do not know what will happen tomorrow or Friday.

Just be careful.
  • #8,423
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:34pm Jul 1, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting hans356
Hi, dwildes.

Good entry, but according to your chart and the time frame used, I think a 100 pip stop loss is too tight . . . and (more than likely) will be hit.

I understand the former 50 pip TSL and the move to the 100 pip TSL due to increased volatility....
Thanks
  • #8,424
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:29pm Jul 1, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting GEfx
Wow, this is a pretty tough thread. Think I will just move on, and I hope not into oblivion. LOL
Lol! I know what you mean... I don't post here too much because of a few big egos floating around but I would urge you not to move on. This thread is too valuable to be put off by a few arguments!
  • #8,425
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:39pm Jul 1, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting DanUK
Lol! I know what you mean... I don't post here too much because of a few big egos floating around but I would urge you not to move on. This thread is too valuable to be put off by a few arguments!
Thanks for your comment. Was just passing through. Interesting read and I send my best wishes to you all. It would be better if everyone understood that we are trading together here to beat the market, and not trying to beat each other. Cheers!
  • #8,426
  • Jul 1, 2009 10:07pm Jul 1, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting dwildes
Just sold.
Was +75 in profit. Stop is now at B/E.
  • #8,427
  • Jul 1, 2009 11:00pm Jul 1, 2009 11:00pm
Quoting dwildes
Was +75 in profit. Stop is now at B/E.
Nice! Enjoy the free trade. How do you plan to manage your trade from here (just curious because this is my weakest skillset)?
  • #8,428
  • Jul 2, 2009 6:30am Jul 2, 2009 6:30am
Quoting c49ermoose
Nice! Enjoy the free trade. How do you plan to manage your trade from here (just curious because this is my weakest skillset)?
Thanks!

Honestly - this is my weakest point as well. If you check my past posts on this thread the past year, you'll notice I'm not the biggest fan of the 100 pip TSL. I'd rather scale out or close all positions at the next level of support, which is around where we are now at the lower TL on the H4 (around 1.4080).

However, since we've fallen under it - we're most likely going to bounce back up to test if it will become resistance. So - I'm watching that level and the reaction around it very closely. If it starts to show strength, I'll close the trade, if I don't see any evidence of strength - I'll let the trade do it's work.

Since we moved down pretty steady from the 50% FIB I drew on the weekly, and there is still a PIN from a few weeks ago on the weekly chart that is still in play that pierces through the 50% fib from a new high. I classify this move as the 'first touch back' and so far (at least IMO) it's looking to move down.
  • #8,429
  • Jul 2, 2009 8:02am Jul 2, 2009 8:02am
Quoting dwildes
Thanks!

Honestly - this is my weakest point as well. If you check my past posts on this thread the past year, you'll notice I'm not the biggest fan of the 100 pip TSL. I'd rather scale out or close all positions at the next level of support, which is around where we are now at the lower TL on the H4 (around 1.4080).

However, since we've fallen under it - we're most likely going to bounce back up to test if it will become resistance. So - I'm watching that level and the reaction around it very closely. If it starts to show strength, I'll close...
I guess it's becuase we seem to be in a bit of a consolidating market, but I've had 5 trades stopped at BE over the last month that were in good profit (75p or more) - while waiting on a big push. I just don't know wether to be a purist with a TSL or close trades manually (aka. go on, take the money and run).

Anyone more experienced here care to shed some light as to managing trend trades once they get going? I know Jacko is a big fan of a pure TSL approach (from pg 1 et. al.) - which is probably effective in strongly trending markets. But it has been discussed here, we have a huge daily range right now and lots of consolidation. Perhaps the sensei himself would care to comment on strategies to maximize profit in this choppy mess?

Thanks to all who comment and share their knowledge!

Moose
  • #8,430
  • Jul 2, 2009 8:07am Jul 2, 2009 8:07am
This is an interesting point... the ranging market. I was once told that if you are a trend trader and the market is stuck in a range your best position is no position at all. Something to think about.
  • #8,431
  • Jul 2, 2009 8:12am Jul 2, 2009 8:12am
Yeah - ranging markets can definitely whipsaw you out, and as a trend trader - you'll just spin your wheels.

However, if you trade at key levels of support and resistance - you 'love' ranging markets.
  • #8,432
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:17am Jul 2, 2009 9:17am
True. I like the way clockwork71 plays the major s/r levels. I used to trade that way actually.
  • #8,433
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:37am Jul 2, 2009 10:37am
Quoting DanUK
True. I like the way clockwork71 plays the major s/r levels. I used to trade that way actually.
Yeah - he's a pretty good guy. I'm a big fan of his thought process as well.
  • #8,434
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:49am Jul 2, 2009 10:49am
We are now at a key level of support and it's decision time. What's more important is we are at the 1.4000 level, huge psychological line.

I've yet to see any significant strength and with tomorrow being a holiday - I may just keep holding.
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  • #8,435
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:39pm Jul 2, 2009 12:39pm
  •  Bam Fx
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Using Small Live Account as Demo | 28 Posts
Just my 2 cents... I don't know if you usually hold positions over the weekend but there could be, in my opinion, some pretty big political events this weekend. Just a thought?!?!
  • #8,436
  • Jul 2, 2009 1:07pm Jul 2, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting Bam Fx
Just my 2 cents... I don't know if you usually hold positions over the weekend but there could be, in my opinion, some pretty big political events this weekend. Just a thought?!?!
You know - that is a very good thought and one that's been always lurking in the back of my mind. However I finally came to the conclusion that the weekends don't matter that much, if you are already in a position.

With that said though - I prefer to 'not' hold over the weekend, but if I see no strong technical reason to close, I'll just leave the trade to do its job.
  • #8,437
  • Jul 2, 2009 2:41pm Jul 2, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting c49ermoose
Anyone more experienced here care to shed some light as to managing trend trades once they get going? I know Jacko is a big fan of a pure TSL approach (from pg 1 et. al.) - which is probably effective in strongly trending markets. But it has been discussed here, we have a huge daily range right now and lots of consolidation. Perhaps the sensei himself would care to comment on strategies to maximize profit in this choppy mess?

Thanks to all who comment and share their knowledge!

Moose
I wouldn't say I'm experienced, but I seem to be having some success with my trades . On one of my accounts I use and 100 pip stop loss and 100 pip take profit and let the trade get closed by a loss or gain. The key to doing this is only trade with the trend. That account has seen very substantial gain in 2009. I can remember a few times where we had a big rally it hit my 100 pip take profit and quickly reversed then it allowed me to get in at a better price for another 100 pips. Not too often do I see these rallies go more than 200 pips without some kind of a pull back and since I don't always get in at the perfect time a 100 pip gain catches a good chunk of the move.

BTW I do have other accounts where I manage my trades differently, but sometimes it gets a little frustrating seeing a trade go over 100 pips gain only to end up taking 25 or 30 pip profit. Another thing I do here when the market moves to profit is to place the stop loss a few pips below each swing when the market is trading along a minor trend line. Sometimes I get knocked out early and sometimes I don't and that's ok as long as I'm in profit at the end of the month.
It's NOT GAMBLING when the odds are in your favor
  • #8,438
  • Jul 2, 2009 4:48pm Jul 2, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting dwildes
We are now at a key level of support and it's decision time. What's more important is we are at the 1.4000 level, huge psychological line.

I've yet to see any significant strength and with tomorrow being a holiday - I may just keep holding.
Looks like the sellers are still in strong. I haven't seen any significant pushes up on price to warn that a retracement is coming, but I can't imagine this going 'straight' down for much longer. I was ready for the move down to 1.4000, but was expecting at least some struggle to hold the 1.4xxx level - but didn't see any sign that the E/U wanted to stay above that level.

I have +100 pips locked in for profit with alerts set for further action. I'll continue to hold my shorts until the market says otherwise, but at this point - I'm looking for a good reason for an exit.
  • #8,439
  • Jul 2, 2009 8:41pm Jul 2, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting dwildes
Looks like the sellers are still in strong....
I closed this trade for +200 pips.
Reason for closing: showing signs of retracement
  • #8,440
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:54pm Jul 2, 2009 10:54pm
Quoting dwildes
I closed this trade for +200 pips.
Reason for closing: showing signs of retracement
Congratulations. Way to manage that trade. Nice way to start the month.
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