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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #35,861
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:08am Jul 2, 2009 9:08am
Quoting verno
Ghous, is there also a timeframe over which the setup would be valid assuming it broke the high, or a price extension over which its invalid.

eg it takes another 10 bars before it retraces or the bar extends its same length again before it retraces back down?
I don't think I got all of this post, but I'll give it a try...

I assume you're asking abt playing retraces after a decent sized conventional move which would be the break of the buob and continuation of the bull move for quite some time before it sinks down under the buob...

Well then here goes...

I am not sure if you can play such retraces but I really don't like the idea of getting in at high risk in a trade off a PA bar that has already produced what it was supposed to,

retraces to me make more sense when price breaks the PA bar and pulls back inside the PA bar down to 50 or 61.8 fib, a blind entry (or using price action off a lower time frame) here is more logical.

Honestly I don't play retraces anymore so hang on for some time Jarroo will assist you better (he's online. )

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #35,862
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:10am Jul 2, 2009 9:10am
Hi Chaps/Chapettes

I think firstly we have to start from the beginning to the mind set right.

Ask yourself these questions like this:

How long do I really want/need to spend trading before I make my first million?

Well trading the dailies as described here it isn't going to happen before the next Asteroid hits.

Bar patterns are all the same on any time frame, right down to the 1 minute.

I would say all you need to go down to is 60 mins though for a novice.

Use the PPZ, res and supp knowledge is good, it's useful, look at the Pins if you want to be a hero and get the reversal twice out of ten times (getting the hint? ).

Counter trend trading is the most riskiest form of trading known to man (or women, let's not forget them, I looove them).

Why CT (counter trend) when you can trade WITH the trend? No Pro trader I knows even bothers trading CT, what's the point when you can much more easily take a bite out of the middle with much less RISK. You want to be a hero? Hit the Casinos.

Trading doesn't have to be as hard as it will be for you trading these CT methods. Think 'where do the large players (banks etc) want it go' it's either up or down, they don't go side ways, that's just idiots trying to find the CT PIN and messing up.

You're only interested in getting in an ESTABLISHED trend, the money is already there working for you before you jump in, easy? Of course it is, then you exit as soon as it starts to weaken, you don't try and be the hero and try to get the top or bottom, that's for the noobs to try and get, we love their money, it's called DUMB money (no offence).

Trading is not hard when you know how it all works and start thinking for yourself.
Private Ryan is saved.
  • #35,863
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:17am Jul 2, 2009 9:17am
Quoting bobability
Hi Chaps/Chapettes

I think firstly we have to start from the beginning to the mind set right.

Ask yourself these questions like this:

How long do I really want/need to spend trading before I make my first million?

Well trading the dailies as described here it isn't going to happen before the next Asteroid hits.

Bar patterns are all the same on any time frame, right down to the 1 minute.

I would say all you need to go down to is 60 mins though for a novice.

[b]Use the PPZ, res and supp knowledge is good, it's useful,...
Interesting.

So what do we do abt the 8/10 trades that don't reverse off a ppz? I know from the little experience I have of blind entries based on ppzs only that such instances where price touches and reverses off a 1H 4H ppz is truly rare, the other times A quick moving of stop and a short initial SL helps. Is that what you do too?
I believe . . .
  • #35,864
  • Edited 9:33am Jul 2, 2009 9:19am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting verno
Ghous, is there also a timeframe over which the setup would be valid assuming it broke the high, or a price extension over which its invalid.

eg it takes another 10 bars before it retraces or the bar extends its same length again before it retraces back down?

I may give more leeway for a break to ocurr on the Daily or Weekly (i.e. momentum building). But the ideal situation is the next bar to break it. As ghous has stated, the PA formation is not valid until it breaks. If it doesn't break over many bars (retrace) it does not lose its validity due to not breaking, but may lose its momentum.

If it breaks and then retraces, it doesn't become invalid until the opposite High/Low is broken.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #35,865
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:23am Jul 2, 2009 9:23am
Quoting bobability
Hi Chaps/Chapettes

I think firstly we have to start from the beginning to the mind set right.

Ask yourself these questions like this:

How long do I really want/need to spend trading before I make my first million?

Well trading the dailies as described here it isn't going to happen before the next Asteroid hits.

Bar patterns are all the same on any time frame, right down to the 1 minute.

I would say all you need to go down to is 60 mins though for a novice.

Use the PPZ, res and supp knowledge is good, it's useful, look...

I made LOTS of money doing ct trades due do the low risk I also know people who have been doing it 20+ years and still make enough to buy a new jet every year. It really depends on what works for the person, the one thing I like about CT trades is the LOW risk, you can run a tight stop on it and if you are doing 2 to 1 or as I used to on the spooz run a 2-3 handle for a 8-10 gain and run a 70% win it makes money.

I will say that most PB's are CT trades, if you look that is why I use the BB, the BB help me tell if a trade is slowing down as well as RSI, same shit I did 9 years ago on the spooz, same thing I did here 2-3 years ago on the 5min crap. The only thing that changed is the SPEED so I can have a nice life. Am I going to take a CT trade if the price is riding the BB up or down hard even if it's a perfect pin? Nope, alost about the PB's before I even know who Pring or James was I used to trade a setup like this called a J hook and it's just like a pin and the reson it works is easy.

A PB is just a play on fear and greed at a emotional high.

Now bob, how are you going to trade PB's in the trend?
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #35,866
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:29am Jul 2, 2009 9:29am
Quoting bobability

Use the PPZ, res and supp knowledge is good, it's useful, look at the Pins if you want to be a hero and get the reversal twice out of ten times (getting the hint? ).

But do you think that its a good idea to use pin bars for entry where for example, there is an up trend and then a pin bar forms on a swing low? Maybe hitting the bottom of the trendline or some other pivot level.
  • #35,867
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:40am Jul 2, 2009 9:40am
I agree that CTs are much harder than trades with a trend, but as long as you have a proven method that works most of the time, I'm ok with it.

break of the minor ppz, return to break area, tl, 50fib, Sell, stop above 61.. could be one example.

It's all about probability, mindset and risk control....
.
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  • #35,868
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:44am Jul 2, 2009 9:44am
Quoting raczekfx
I agree that CTs are much harder than trades with a trend, but as long as you have a proven method that works most of the time, I'm ok with it.

break of the minor ppz, return to break area, tl, 50fib, Sell, stop above 61.. could be one example.

It's all about probability, mindset and risk control....
.

Yep all about R:R and M:M, if people spent some time on that and not 99.9% on the charts I bet they would make some money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #35,869
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:49am Jul 2, 2009 9:49am
Quoting Ryanmcd
I made LOTS of money doing ct trades due do the low risk I also know people who have been doing it 20+ years and still make enough to buy a new jet every year. It really depends on what works for the person, the one thing I like about CT trades is the LOW risk, you can run a tight stop on it and if you are doing 2 to 1 or as I used to on the spooz run a 2-3 handle for a 8-10 gain and run a 70% win it makes money.

I will say that most PB's are CT trades, if you look that is why I use the BB, the BB help me tell if a trade is slowing down as well...

Easy peasy. Firstly I don't believe for a min just because you get a small stop that a CT trend is less risky. I know for a fact that CT trading is the most riskiest trading methos there is, i'm not saying nobody can successfully trade it, I'm just saying there are easier less stressful ways of making money. If you like the buzz, keep doing it, but I think by you upping the time frame to trade, either your ring piece has gone or you're burned out....because traders who can't hack it anymore on the timeframe they trade move up to a slower one.

CT trading is for people who think they know when the trend is turning just because of spotting a Pinbar at a PPZ etc, you think the Pros don't know this? If it's so easy why aren't everyones dog and granny trading Pinbars and are millionaires with new Jets every year? Pleeeeeeeeze.

The main issue here is the daily trades, you are not going to get wealthy trading dailies my old mucker.

Ever seen a pinbar with the trend before?
Private Ryan is saved.
  • #35,870
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:51am Jul 2, 2009 9:51am
we're sitting on a daily SR once again with TL confl.
Up from here or down we break?
I'd expect a bounce. If dow and oil starts cutting back losses, fiber should easily move up till 41 at least, imho
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  • #35,871
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:52am Jul 2, 2009 9:52am
Quoting raczekfx
I agree that CTs are much harder than trades with a trend, but as long as you have a proven method that works most of the time, I'm ok with it.
Agreed. CT trades are harder, yet provide a very high potential gain. That is why James16, Mike and others stresssss the importance of being very very picky in choosing these CT trades carefully. Location and many confluenceS make for some easy trading.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #35,872
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:53am Jul 2, 2009 9:53am
Quote
Ever seen a pinbar with the trend before?

bobability,
Yes, even in my limited experience. but very rare.
  • #35,873
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:55am Jul 2, 2009 9:55am
Quoting bobability
Easy peasy. Firstly I don't believe for a min just because you get a small stop that a CT trend is less risky. I know for a fact that CT trading is the most riskiest trading methos there is, i'm not saying nobody can successfully trade it, I'm just saying there are easier less stressful ways of making money. If you like the buzz, keep doing it, but I think by you upping the time frame to trade, either your ring piece has gone or you're burned out....because traders who can't hack it anymore on the timeframe they trade move up to a slower one.

CT...
Yep I have and even did it on the 5min if you read my past posts, when I did the 3min it was at extremes of the BB "Price closing outside" with rsi divergence. And yes I do know what you are saying about taking pins with the trend but as I just started the 4hr stuff a few days ago we have been sideways as you can see by the BB so CT's are what I have to do until we get a trend, once we start to get a trend then I will look at PB's on the mid of the BB to get into a trade. Also you are right about playing the trend but even CT's are going to make you money on PB I think as long as they are at a EXTREME like at a BB with RSI divergence, Back to the old "Rich Deck"
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #35,874
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:56am Jul 2, 2009 9:56am
Quoting supremeChaos
bobability,
Yes, even in my limited experience. but very rare.

Yeah on Dailies it will be rare. Try going down the time frame right at a point where the trend breaths out after breathing in....
Private Ryan is saved.
  • #35,875
  • Jul 2, 2009 9:59am Jul 2, 2009 9:59am
I'd also expect crude to bounce till 69 before falling below 65.
we'll see.
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  • #35,876
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:05am Jul 2, 2009 10:05am
Quoting jarroo

If it breaks and then retraces, it doesn't become invalid until the opposite High/Low is broken.
Thanks Jaroo and ghous, I think the above was the statement I was looking for.

On the attached is the bearish OB still valid in the 2nd box? If not what has invalidated it:

a) the move downwards to 1.58 region (and if so at what point does this move invalidate it)?

b) the retracement is nearly a full retracement meaning lower probability of success
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  • #35,877
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:09am Jul 2, 2009 10:09am
Here's a chart Bob, as you see I took the usd/cad short as posted then went long, I like to use BB to show trend as well as a EMA, look at the long I took look at the BB and the EMA lines up kinda nice
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #35,878
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:13am Jul 2, 2009 10:13am
Hello Bob, Ryan, Ghous,

Very very interesting subject..................

Following the famous adage stating 'trend is your friend" :

1) how else could we define what a trend really is ?
2) By using a moving average, trend lines, oscilators...etc.....?
3) On which time frame if you trade the 4 hours for example ?

Thanks for your attention,

Happy trading,

Cheers

Angel
  • #35,879
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:17am Jul 2, 2009 10:17am
Quoting Angel65
Hello Bob, Ryan, Ghous,

Very very interesting subject..................

Following the famous adage stating 'trend is your friend" :

1) how else could we define what a trend really is ?
2) By using a moving average, trend lines, oscilators...etc.....?
3) On which time frame if you trade the 4 hours for example ?

Thanks for your attention,

Happy trading,

Cheers

Angel

I know some people look at the higher times and all that Jazz but to me all that does is talk you OUT of a trade most of the time from what I have seen, I really dont play the Support / Resistance game either, I know it works but I like watching double tops triple tops with divergence and FLAT BB's so I guess that's some kinda S:R after all.

To me after using the BB for 9+ years that works best for me, I also throw up a MA to help a little and when the MA is inside of the BB you know it's flat, as well as the mid BB line is flat.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #35,880
  • Jul 2, 2009 10:20am Jul 2, 2009 10:20am
Quoting Angel65
Hello Bob, Ryan, Ghous,

Very very interesting subject..................

Following the famous adage stating 'trend is your friend" :

1) how else could we define what a trend really is ?
2) By using a moving average, trend lines, oscilators...etc.....?
3) On which time frame if you trade the 4 hours for example ?

Thanks for your attention,

Happy trading,

Cheers

Angel
I read jacko saying...

"If price starts from the bottom left to the top right it's trending up. If price starts from top left and heads towards bottom right it's trending down. It really is that simple.

But obviously you will need to distinguish between a strong trend and a weak trend, which has to do with momentum (i.e big bearish bars in a downtrend and big bullish bars in an uptrend) well what else...an MA cross over could assist? Maybe...Besides divergence and the overall movement of the trend.

good trends move up steadily with frequent but small retracments, weaker ones tend to fall on their knees more often, and retracments are deeper.

There could be more to it...but it really is more of a visual thing than anything else and the above mentioned factors do help, the first one helps the most.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
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