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No Brainer Trades

  • #12,341
  • Edited 10:09am Jun 30, 2009 7:40am | Edited 10:09am
Confluence on Pound today....
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  • #12,342
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:49am Jun 30, 2009 7:49am
Here is a nice Bearish Butterfly on the 1H chart of the GBPUSD. Completed at the 138R Fib (I expected the 138% because of the Figure there).

SR
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  • #12,343
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:05am Jun 30, 2009 10:05am
My take on BRVs bucket....
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  • #12,344
  • Jun 30, 2009 8:00pm Jun 30, 2009 8:00pm
A few quick questions if I may:

-Are you guys positioning your trades directly on the SR line or at some level of distance away from it?

-If price does break by a few points when do you call it quits. I've exited on too many occations in the past on a 2 pip break over SR that that folded directly back in to the line.

Many thanks,

Chris
  • #12,345
  • Jun 30, 2009 8:24pm Jun 30, 2009 8:24pm
Quoting fourth
A few quick questions if I may:

-Are you guys positioning your trades directly on the SR line or at some level of distance away from it?

-If price does break by a few points when do you call it quits. I've exited on too many occations in the past on a 2 pip break over SR that that folded directly back in to the line.

Many thanks,

Chris
I usually try and enter about 10 points early from the line and give it usually quite a range. Generally, my S&R lines consist of TWO lines. S&R is always a range - you'll drive yourself crazy trying to nail it down to just a few points. Check out my follow-up post on the USD/JPY below and you'll see how I outline my items.

Personally, I allow for wider stops and depending on the history of the level, it may be 20 points past the last possible resistance or 40-50 points (example being the huge USD/CAD 1.30 from last year/earlier this year top or the recent EUR/USD 1.41 top in the last couple of weeks).

Does this help?
  • #12,346
  • Jun 30, 2009 8:26pm Jun 30, 2009 8:26pm
...97-97.25 is a level I've been watching for awhile now. 50% fib is just below 97 and there is quite a mess of resistance in that range.

4hr chart attached below. Questions/Comments/WTF welcome as always. My first limit order is set at 96.92

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...djpyjune30.jpg
  • #12,347
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:30pm Jun 30, 2009 9:30pm
Thanks Sam. I guess then there must be SL and RR adjustments made to ensure your reward is greater than your risk.
  • #12,348
  • Jun 30, 2009 10:28pm Jun 30, 2009 10:28pm
Quoting fourth
Thanks Sam. I guess then there must be SL and RR adjustments made to ensure your reward is greater than your risk.
That can be an accurate statement...but I wouldn't obsess about a 1:3 or 1:2 R/R. 1:2 can often be difficult to achieve without having your stops too close (again, we want to allow room for the bounce/reaction to occur). You may find a 1:1.5 is more appropriate based on your win/loss ratio on these types of trades. I find that with 1:1, often allowing for a larger stop, my win ratio is 65-75% no brainer trade.

IMO, many others may disagree...but from my screen time, I've really come to understand that S&R is truly a range and sometimes needs a little room to breathe. Other times, you'll nail it to the pip and you're at the T/P before you know it. When I place my stops, I try to look at what price point is going to say that my target S&R range is absolutely invalid and is screaming to get out & move to the next one.

However, if I took for granted all of the "MUST BE 1:3 R/R" stuff I heard/read in my first year of trading, the no brainer trades would either result in repeated stopout or rarely reaching the t/p.
  • #12,349
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:44pm Jun 30, 2009 11:44pm
eurjp. I am looking for this sell to go down to 134.82
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  • #12,350
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:56pm Jun 30, 2009 11:56pm
Quoting Tori
eurjp. I am looking for this sell to go down to 134.82
Attachment
Nice to see you posting Tori, been awhile I think?

On your E/J trade, is there concern at all for the recent move up into that area (June 30) and the T/P being below previous S&R at 1.35?
  • #12,351
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:01am Jul 1, 2009 12:01am
I posted this in my journal/blog and thought it might be useful here. These are setups that I either just watched, traded lightly and/or missed all together. In one view, it's really the same trade (USD correlated) but some levels/fibs looked to be more ideal than others.

First off, USD/CHF is shown below, 109. working perfectly with a 50% fib retracement from recent move down from 1.1 highs.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...sdchfrecap.jpg

EUR/USD is next. 1.40 was the bounce point (previous S&R) and the 38% fib from recent highs was just below that price.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...h_eurrecap.jpg

Last but not least is my favorite setup of the day and the one I should have been paying most attention to. GBP/USD, after spiking through the resistance top, had fallen some 300 points and was ready to bounce. A previous S&R location at 1.6425 would provide this along with a perfect 61% fib retracement.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...th_gurecap.jpg
  • #12,352
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:12am Jul 1, 2009 12:12am
Nice post Sam, I managed to catch a similar bounce to the bottom one on AUDUSD.....
  • #12,353
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:18am Jul 1, 2009 12:18am
Quoting dingo432
Nice post Sam, I managed to catch a similar bounce to the bottom one on AUDUSD.....
Ah, ya, I saw some posting on that one earlier. A/U isn't one that I usually watch but as you said, with it being USD, should have been good for a similar bounce.

Nice work.
  • #12,354
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:27am Jul 1, 2009 12:27am
What I m looking at on eurjpy was the quick move up it made earlier, in line with the usdjpy, and also the liklihood of the eurusd dropping from a pullback as the gbpusd is doing now. In other words, the pull back on the eurjpy hit my line in conjunction with what I am seeing on the other charts. So in fact I am factoring in as much info as I can see that lines up with my S/R level. When I see all these things in favour of my trade I consider I either take it now, or sit there and wait and wonder. In profit so happy and we will see how far it goes
  • #12,355
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:28am Jul 1, 2009 12:28am
Morning,

This pair is throwing out some freaky moves. Considering a break and pull back to the lower line for a short entry.
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  • #12,356
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:56am Jul 1, 2009 12:56am
Some levels to note....
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  • #12,357
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:58am Jul 1, 2009 12:58am
Quoting Siam
Morning,

This pair is throwing out some freaky moves. Considering a break and pull back to the lower line for a short entry.
ooh nice Siam, I don't trade that pair but it looks like it's winding up nicely
  • #12,358
  • Jul 1, 2009 12:59am Jul 1, 2009 12:59am
Quoting Tori
What I m looking at on eurjpy was the quick move up it made earlier, in line with the usdjpy, and also the liklihood of the eurusd dropping from a pullback as the gbpusd is doing now. In other words, the pull back on the eurjpy hit my line in conjunction with what I am seeing on the other charts. So in fact I am factoring in as much info as I can see that lines up with my S/R level. When I see all these things in favour of my trade I consider I either take it now, or sit there and wait and wonder. In profit so happy and we will see how far it goes...
Nice trade Tori, thanks for the info
  • #12,359
  • Jul 1, 2009 1:57am Jul 1, 2009 1:57am
just an update on eurjpy. 40 odd pips fine, but a second bite of the cherry might come off. What I am watching now is eurusd and gbpusd to open new candle and head down. Because usdjpy has been pushing up it tends to pull eurjpy up to a certain extent anyway. When it stalls that will see my trade fall somewhat. Of course none of this may happen, but it is what I am watching.
  • #12,360
  • Jul 1, 2009 3:16am Jul 1, 2009 3:16am
Had an order on Eur/Jpy at 1.3597. It probably again missed 1 pip. I got up to check noticed it and the price moved already to 1.3587. I canceled the order.
What people think of going short on Eur/ Jpy at 136.86-137.00?
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