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  • #3,981
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:01pm Jun 30, 2009 4:01pm
Hi Strat and all, not much chat - just a couple of 4H charts, Cable and Fiber.

Cable has been choppy for a while but you can make sense of it somewhat - while its struggling to break 1.66, there doesn't seem much demand to take it back below 1.62. Bad economic news in the UK today explains todays down move, but with NFP coming up, Crossroads (Clapton) ahead?

Similar story with EURUSD. Price has retreated a little from the yearly high at the beginning of the month, but has been stepping nicely higher over the last couple of weeks...

Sorry for the 4H's Strat, just a different perspective
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  • #3,982
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:35pm Jun 30, 2009 4:35pm
Big Boss - Long Term Down, Med/Short Up (countertrend bounce)
Boss - Long Term Down, Med/Short Up (ditto)
Daily - Up

Big Boss hit 38% fib (around 1.66)

Today's bar is a shooting star at resistance, which seems to be good PA at resistance.

I have been thinking about what you have brought up about the 365 and the comments the other day about selling at 1.66 is suicide.

I see reasons why I shouldn't take this trade (too much % risk, all timeframes don't agree, downside is choppy), but I guess I still don't see why the PA and resistance are not a good setup.

Let me know if this analysis is faulty, cause I'm not sure I am seeing it clearly.

I just read what AstonDan wrote too. He's sounding more professional everyday.
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  • #3,983
  • Edited 5:06pm Jun 30, 2009 5:01pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Strat and all, not much chat - just a couple of 4H charts, Cable and Fiber.

Cable has been choppy for a while but you can make sense of it somewhat - while its struggling to break 1.66, there doesn't seem much demand to take it back below 1.62. Bad economic news in the UK today explains todays down move, but with NFP coming up, Crossroads (Clapton) ahead?

Similar story with EURUSD. Price has retreated a little from the yearly high at the beginning of the month, but has been stepping nicely higher over the last couple of weeks...

Sorry for...
Dan and Corbett,

GBPUSD and EURUSD, being the two majors most people trade, are definitely giving out mixed signals.

I posted the other day about the anal artists forecasting the EURUSD down whereas everything to me looks up. GBPUSD is in an even stronger uptrend since this chop and slop is supposed to be it's down cycle.

If we just eyeball the chart and the recent action we have to say these two are just taking a rest before pushing higher.

However, if we look at what the technicals present to us:

GBPUSD
7 top high with Resistance from 2002, 2000, 1995 and 1994 and at a 38.2 % fib retrace, this says we should go down as shown by history.

EURUSD
8 top high with Resistance from Dec 2008, 1995 and 1992 and at a 50% fib retrace, so again a down move should be expected. Problem here is the neckline of the H&S is acting as strong support.

Whenever I see conflict like this, I just stand aside until the market reveals where she wants to go.

Corbett, any PA at this level and strength of trend is for those in long positions to get OUT. It is not PA to go short. You should not be thinking of shorting such a strong trend until the bottom of the ascending triangle is taken out. Remember Dr. Joe? It keeps on going up 'til it stops going up.

So, it first has to stop going up before it can go down. Has it stopped going up?

Has it started going down? Have the big boys started selling it? Dr. Joe said to sell when it starts going down.

Don't just look at individual candles - look at all candles relative to all other candles and stand back and look at the big picture. Look at, and see the trend.

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,984
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:08pm Jun 30, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting One14
I have been thinking about what you have brought up about the 365 and the comments the other day about selling at 1.66 is suicide.

I see reasons why I shouldn't take this trade (too much % risk, all timeframes don't agree, downside is choppy), but I guess I still don't see why the PA and resistance are not a good setup.


I just read what AstonDan wrote too. He's sounding more professional everyday.
Hi One14, thanks for the compliment!

I agree that Cable looks 'toppy'. It's had a largely uninterrupted climb all year and has been consolidating. A long term short for me would have to be below 1.62, and there's some way between the break of todays bar and 1.62 yet, likewise above 1.66 for a longterm long outlook which also looks possible.

For a longer term stress free approach, i'd be looking at breaks of these two levels. I haven't looked at COT data to see how the commercials are positioned (and i'm not very good at interpreting it anyway!) Perhaps Strat could shed some light?
  • #3,985
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:30pm Jun 30, 2009 5:30pm
EURJPY has been swinging above below and around 135 for months and is there again...

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  • #3,986
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:44pm Jun 30, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting Surfer
Trade 2
Long AUDJPY

Big Boss
Strong up move from multi-month lows
High of this up move stopped at 50% retrace and 20EMA so need to be aware of this as we move up.

Boss
Higher highs and lows moving in nice channel. Bullish.

Worker
50MA has been support for last two touches. Nice trending channel trending up and 50MA support again.
50% retrace from last swing up.
Double bottom with pretty hammer.

Entry above hammer was taken out and has not retraced much since.
SL at 73.85 is below the low of the hammer and below the round number 74.
This...
As per plan, 1st target reached at 78. Stop on remaining half at BE.
  • #3,987
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:35pm Jun 30, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting Surfer
As per plan, 1st target reached at 78. Stop on remaining half at BE.
Riding the wave eh? Be careful, this one may have broken already.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,988
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:45pm Jun 30, 2009 6:45pm
Quoting strat
Dan and Corbett,

GBPUSD and EURUSD, being the two majors most people trade, are definitely giving out mixed signals.

I posted the other day about the anal artists forecasting the EURUSD down whereas everything to me looks up. GBPUSD is in an even stronger uptrend since this chop and slop is supposed to be it's down cycle.

If we just eyeball the chart and the recent action we have to say these two are just taking a rest before pushing higher.

However, if we look at what the technicals present to us:

GBPUSD
7 top high with Resistance...
Thanks Strat. That does help.

I got that "feeling" of a trade developing and me missing it.

But...I'm getting used to waiting for the good ones. So, I'll stand to the side and let the Queen reveal the next move.
  • #3,989
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:59pm Jun 30, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting strat
Riding the wave eh? Be careful, this one may have broken already.
No need to do anything then is there. My stop is in place and the trade is now free to do as the Queen wishes.

If it clears 78.50 it could go to 80.
  • #3,990
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:02pm Jun 30, 2009 7:02pm
Quoting AstonDan
Hi One14, thanks for the compliment!

I agree that Cable looks 'toppy'. It's had a largely uninterrupted climb all year and has been consolidating. A long term short for me would have to be below 1.62, and there's some way between the break of todays bar and 1.62 yet, likewise above 1.66 for a longterm long outlook which also looks possible.

For a longer term stress free approach, i'd be looking at breaks of these two levels. I haven't looked at COT data to see how the commercials are positioned (and i'm not very good at interpreting it anyway!)...
Thanks Dan. Waiting and watching to see what happens.

I used to trade ranges successfully, so it's hard to ignore them.

Thanks for your input.
  • #3,991
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:04pm Jun 30, 2009 7:04pm
Quoting AstonDan
EURJPY has been swinging above below and around 135 for months and is there again...

Attachment
This, and CHFJPY and USDJPY, look to me like they are building a base from which to launch another move.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,992
  • Jun 30, 2009 8:45pm Jun 30, 2009 8:45pm
Amen!

Classical charting would put E/J in the mid 140's in relatively short order. Is this more of a statement about JPY or EUR??? I favor the former.
  • #3,993
  • Jun 30, 2009 8:55pm Jun 30, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting Alexandra
Amen!

Classical charting would put E/J in the mid 140's in relatively short order. Is this more of a statement about JPY or EUR??? I favor the former.
I agree as I believe it is weakness in the Yen
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,994
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:08pm Jun 30, 2009 9:08pm
Nice work re: USDCAD by the way. That was gutsy - and accurate.
  • #3,995
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:50pm Jun 30, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting Alexandra
Nice work re: USDCAD by the way. That was gutsy - and accurate.
Thank you - we aim to please! More than likely because I'm a sucker for "V" bottoms.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,996
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:56pm Jun 30, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting Alexandra
Amen!

Classical charting would put E/J in the mid 140's in relatively short order. Is this more of a statement about JPY or EUR??? I favor the former.
what do you mean classical charting?

what I see here is that its near the bottom of an upward channel, the top of which is at about 140
  • #3,997
  • Jul 1, 2009 2:26am Jul 1, 2009 2:26am
Time to get back into the swing of things, posting charts and trying analysis with the group. I'm taking the whole week off so starting Monday its back to old times (You ready Dan?).
Bang.
  • #3,998
  • Jul 1, 2009 3:43am Jul 1, 2009 3:43am
Quoting Naws
what do you mean classical charting?

what I see here is that its near the bottom of an upward channel, the top of which is at about 140
I think Alexandra is referring to AB=CD - a measured move from the last upswing.
  • #3,999
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:27am Jul 1, 2009 4:27am
Quoting strat
EURCAD Weekly gave us a very interesting situation.

Week ending May 29 put down a belt hold candle followed, as you would expect, the following week, by a bullish candle from support to resistance.

Week ending June 12 saw a hammer except it wasn't a hammer - even Bond would not have put his name on that! Why, I hear you groan?

Well, if you remember what we look for in a hammer - it isn't ALL there - parts of it are, but not all of it. So, we ignore it - or do we?

This is where you should not take candles in isolation.

If you took it in isolation,...
Strat,
Would the pattern in USDCAD, weekly candle ending on June 12th qualify like described by you?
Plus the weekly candle currently forming in EURGBP if it stays the same till the end of this week?
USDCAD - long above weekly candle ending on June 12th, stop loss below the low of the preceeding candle.
EURGBP (if it stays similar/doesn't go down till the end of the week) - the same as USDCAD above.

Would Dr. Joe have taken such trade if he had traded weeklies?
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Attached Image
  • #4,000
  • Edited 8:45am Jul 1, 2009 7:29am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting Berzerk
Strat,
Would the pattern in USDCAD, weekly candle ending on June 12th qualify like described by you?
Plus the weekly candle currently forming in EURGBP if it stays the same till the end of this week?
USDCAD - long above weekly candle ending on June 12th, stop loss below the low of the preceeding candle.
EURGBP (if it stays similar/doesn't go down till the end of the week) - the same as USDCAD above.

Would Dr. Joe have taken such trade if he had traded weeklies?
Well, for your first post, this is very encouraging and shows good observation skills.

The USDCAD BOSS pattern, on my data, is very similar to that described previously and was one of the reasons, plus the "V" bottom on the Worker, that gave me clues USDCAD was changing to an up trend.

The EURGBP BOSS is much weaker than the USDCAD BOSS by virtue that the bullish candle forming the double bottom has a longer wick meaning that the buyers were rejected at higher levels, at that time. The BOSS is also at the critical 61.8% fib retrace. As you can see on the Worker, there is no "V" bottom and instead the more common, long, drawn out, rounded bottom forming.

I can't hypothesise for Dr. Joe; he didn't use candles, but I do know he would be already long based on the Worker June 15 close being higher than the previous swing high on June 8.

Watch USDCAD during this retrace to look for opportunities to go .............

Note: Don't take this as confirmation of an uptrend - this may not be a new trend and if it is, it is still very young and fragile.

Watch for EURGBP to develop HLs and HHs

Now, your turn, why the handle "Berzerk" - does this explain your personality?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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