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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,401
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:09am Jun 28, 2009 11:09am
Quoting 5abi
These sentiment indicators can be inconclusive sometimes. Reason is that these shorts may actually be people short covering.
"shorts may actually be people short covering"
  • #8,402
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:11am Jun 28, 2009 11:11am
Quoting Trader KGB
Might want to take a larger sampling size than just this thread. Two different sentiment indicators both show retail traders as net short EUR/USD (1 (http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/orderbook/historical_positions.shtml), 2 (http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/)).
Do you ever use COT data Trader KGB?
  • #8,403
  • Jun 28, 2009 1:57pm Jun 28, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting 5abi
These sentiment indicators can be inconclusive sometimes. Reason is that these shorts may actually be people short covering.
They can be inconclusive at times, but I don't see how for the reason you stated. A short cover implies a flat position, these indicators show open positions.

Quoting pipmutt
Do you ever use COT data Trader KGB?
From time to time. It's several days delayed and moves much more slowly than other sentiment data, so it's better for identifying larger trend changes in sentiment.
  • #8,404
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:11pm Jun 28, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting jacko
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.
Hi Jacko,

let's assume that the 4H chart will switch back to an UPTREND. From YOUR perspective, what would be the signal that proves this? What evidences are you looking for? Is there a specific trendline that has to be breached?

Many regards, Matthias
  • #8,405
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:06pm Jun 28, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting jacko
As stated above, I don't use 40/50 pips SLs at the moment because of the 300+% increase in volatility.

[color=#ff0000][color=black]The volatility has made it more difficult, but traders need to learn to adapt to the changed circumstances. And if you were going to trade, you had to be very, very selective. We hunkered down and became very selective and were still able to pump out high profits since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) started in August. (The members of the group know the profit numbers since The GFC started and...




Thanks for your response Jacko. My curiosity is more with how you arrived at a set amount of pips ratio for your stops. whether it be 50, 100, 150. Does this mean that you disregard the position of support/resistance lines? It seems to me that your stop could quite possibly be in between support/resistance lines. Thanks once again, a very interesting thread.
  • #8,406
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:34pm Jun 28, 2009 4:34pm
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge...

say i place my stop behind some resistance and its gets taken out... then when it comes back to my stop and apply the anti hedge its now got support in the way...

attached is a diagram showing this problem (issue in my mind anyways)
Attached Image
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #8,407
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:48pm Jun 28, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting whitegoodman
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge...

say i place my stop behind some resistance and its gets taken out... then when it comes back to my stop and apply the anti hedge its now got support in the way...

attached is a diagram showing this problem (issue in my mind anyways)

valid point...
AH works only if the price comes back and keep going in prefered direction
but also can take you into the trade and goes in the oposite direction.

AH is not pullet proof it an attemt to make loosers to winners if price does where the trader want price to do.

sometimes price can be wrrooooong!
  • #8,408
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:24pm Jun 28, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting whitegoodman
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge...

say i place my stop behind some resistance and its gets taken out... then when it comes back to my stop and apply the anti hedge its now got support in the way...

attached is a diagram showing this problem (issue in my mind anyways)
WGM, The price needs to pass below (Assume up trend) by at least 50 pips before AH order is placed. If it does not then it is a loosing trade (They sometimes happen)

S/R is not directly part of the Jacko's methodology, and looking at your profile I know why you have mentioned it. I use similar blending of methods also.

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_0f0j2BIJoHA/Sk.../s576/AH01.jpg
Disclaimer: I do not trade pure Jacko method.
  • #8,409
  • Jun 28, 2009 8:25pm Jun 28, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting jacko
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.

If you look at the 4H chart the rising Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) was broken on June 15 and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.

Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness...
The first two 4H bars have gone down.
  • #8,410
  • Jun 28, 2009 10:05pm Jun 28, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting whitegoodman
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge...

say i place my stop behind some resistance and its gets taken out... then when it comes back to my stop and apply the anti hedge its now got support in the way...

attached is a diagram showing this problem (issue in my mind anyways)

You have to be correct in the direction you are trading first for the A-H to work for you. So if you are as sure as you can be that the trend is down, then the support will not hold. Now if you think that support is the turning point and trend is changing to up then would you still want the A-H trade there? I know I wouldn't.

A Trend Trader is going to take a loss at the point of the trend change, there is no way around it (that I know of).
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,411
  • Jun 28, 2009 10:17pm Jun 28, 2009 10:17pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
You have to be correct in the direction you are trading first for the A-H to work for you. So if you are as sure as you can be that the trend is down, then the support will not hold. Now if you think that support is the turning point and trend is changing to up then would you still want the A-H trade there? I know I wouldn't.

A Trend Trader is going to take a loss at the point of the trend change, there is no way around it (that I know of).
so AH is discretionary in a sense when it looks like the overall trend may be changing or the market is ranging heavily you may not choose to employ it...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #8,412
  • Jun 28, 2009 10:45pm Jun 28, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting whitegoodman
so AH is discretionary in a sense when it looks like the overall trend may be changing or the market is ranging heavily you may not choose to employ it...
I don't want to tell you the wrong thing, so maybe someone with more experience has something to say on this topic. I'm pretty sure you deploy the A-H by default, I was just bringing up a hypothetical that if you knew you were at the point of trend change would you deploy he A-H.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #8,413
  • Jun 29, 2009 7:33am Jun 29, 2009 7:33am
Quoting tdion
Jacko and newbietrader101:

I sincerely apologize for any insult that you may have felt based on my accusation that you could be the same person.

It had nothing to do with jacko's successful trading, jealously on my part, or intolerance for newbietrader101's posts. It was for the sake of protecting Forex Factory against age old promoting tactics of spoofing users.

Again, I honestly and humbly ask for both of your forgiveness, as I should have not made a public post about this.

I hope you both will forgive me.

Good luck and continued success,
tdion...
newbietrader101 are you still around?
have a question to ask!
  • #8,414
  • Jun 29, 2009 1:48pm Jun 29, 2009 1:48pm
this is a mirrors and shadows market. my analysis says this market aiming for 1.4300 and if it goes there and then 1.4700 is reachable target{probability 80percent] and as jackos says i may be wwwrong.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #8,415
  • Jun 29, 2009 4:29pm Jun 29, 2009 4:29pm
Hi Jacko!

Attached is the USD index, as you can see it is in the downtrend, and been in it for quite some time. I disagree with you that EUR/USD is in the downtrend.

I selling the pair is counter trend trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,416
  • Jun 29, 2009 8:53pm Jun 29, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting mea
newbietrader101 are you still around?
have a question to ask!
this is a ugly post. no need to shout, i have sent you a mesegge. talk to me on PM




and congrats for the upology Tdion. you are better than i thot

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2591828&highlight=twee#post2591828

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2595030&postcount=6549
  • #8,417
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:41am Jun 30, 2009 5:41am
Quoting whitegoodman
so AH is discretionary in a sense when it looks like the overall trend may be changing or the market is ranging heavily you may not choose to employ it...


Hi White Goodman,

It is my understanding that the AH strategy is applied almost by default - unless price shows that the trend might be changing.

Take this as a purely hypothetical situation... the trend is up and we are looking to enter at 1.4000 BUT if price were to drop beyond 1.1000 we would consider that a possible change of trend is taking place. Now if you were to trade this in the traditional way (without the anti-hedge strategy) you might put your stop below 1.1000 which would give you a +300 pip stop loss. If that trade were to move against you, traditionally you might have put on a hedge trade in order to limit your drawdown. That is essentially the idea of the anti-hedge strategy - rather than having large stop losses you place the 100 pip stop, you have fixed risk and if you get stopped out you would place the anti-hedge to re-enter, providing price doesn't drop below your ultimate trend/decision making area.

That is my understanding of how it works and how I use the anti-hedge strategy – hopefully I am not misleading anyone!

Regards,


Dan
  • #8,418
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:46pm Jun 30, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi White Goodman,

It is my understanding that the AH strategy is applied almost by default - unless price shows that the trend might be changing.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Take this as a purely hypothetical situation... the trend is up and we are looking to enter at 1.4000 BUT if price were to drop beyond 1.1000 we would consider that a possible change of trend is taking place. Now if you were to trade this in the traditional way (without the anti-hedge...
That is how I understand it too. Its big advantage is that it stops big drawdowns.
It helps get any losses back too
  • #8,419
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:35am Jul 1, 2009 9:35am
Just sold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,420
  • Jul 1, 2009 9:58am Jul 1, 2009 9:58am
The pair been in an uptrend since early January.
Anyone remember what series of higher highs and higher lows mean?? Geee!

its hard to see the market pivot then and there, but you gotta see it in July!

Whoever sells the pair is playing with fire!

Even a 5yo can tell you where the trend is!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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