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  • #3,941
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:54pm Jun 28, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting elitejets
We could be in for some more chop and volatility this week
Monday and Tuesday are the last couple of days of the quarter and believe or not some funds and managers leave it right to the end to rebalance which can cause some unexpected moves.

Thursday is NFP this week. Yes, Thursday because Friday is a US holiday.

Have a great week!
Nicola
That's all we need - more chop and slop - where do we go to order some trends?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,942
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:00pm Jun 28, 2009 5:00pm
Saw this in another thread. Thought it was a fantastic post - especially for a first post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2301

Keep throwing the jabs out and occasionally you will get the knockout opportunity.
Don't go for the knockout right away.
Play to your strengths.
Be patient and maintain discipline.
Work hard and the rewards will come.

Surfer
  • #3,943
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:09pm Jun 28, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting strat
Your analysis was good but:

Wipe Out on "Not sure what you are getting at"

Not Fade Away (Don't do sideways ranges/channels) - "4. Consolidation between 1.62 and 1.66 that does not look worth trading unless you are a ""fader"" at the channel top and bottom."

And here's me thinking you understood surfing lingo!
Ah - I wiped out on doubting I was right....
Knew what you meant about the fading part.

The channel is a surfer's friend - the place you can easily paddle out before paddling across into the lineup. This is where I diverge as I am not trading them.

Thanks just go easy on the pizza.
  • #3,944
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:25pm Jun 28, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Surfer
Ah - I wiped out on doubting I was right....
Knew what you meant about the fading part.

The channel is a surfer's friend - the place you can easily paddle out before paddling across into the lineup. This is where I diverge as I am not trading them.

Thanks just go easy on the pizza.
I don't eat pizza - you're mistaking me with the Italian Stallion (in his dreams!) - Baby G!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,945
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:27pm Jun 28, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Barben87
Stress free I wish
Get on The Path and your wishes will become reality as it has for others
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,946
  • Jun 28, 2009 5:44pm Jun 28, 2009 5:44pm
Waltzing Matilda is busy today
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,947
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:24pm Jun 28, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting strat
No, nothing to do with tea cups.

I think GBPUSD will go sideways but if it doesn't go sideways it will go up but if it doesn't go up it will go down.
I would have been disappointed if you answered otherwise. The Queen decides where to go...Thanks Dr. J.

Hmmm...no tea?

Well, the other things I noticed which seem too simple for one of your thought provoking comments are:

365 has flattened out.
Retraced close to 50% (from July08 high to Jan 09 low)
Hit resistance around 1.66 (going sideways now)
Retraced to support at 1.57-8 ish (based on your chart)

As Surfer pointed out this seems to obvious.

Patiently waiting for the real answer.
  • #3,948
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:42pm Jun 28, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting One14
I would have been disappointed if you answered otherwise. The Queen decides where to go...Thanks Dr. J.

Hmmm...no tea?

Well, the other things I noticed which seem too simple for one of your thought provoking comments are:

365 has flattened out.
Retraced close to 50% (from July08 high to Jan 09 low)
Hit resistance around 1.66 (going sideways now)
Retraced to support at 1.57-8 ish (based on your chart)

As Surfer pointed out this seems to obvious.

Patiently waiting for the real answer.
""365 has flattened out.""

When did it flatten out before? What happened?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,949
  • Edited 7:44pm Jun 28, 2009 7:43pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting strat
""365 has flattened out.""

When did it flatten out before? What happened?
Ah, now I know what you mean.

That was actually the first thing I looked for after you mentioned that the GBP vibrates around the 365 (well, I looked for what has happened in the past related to the 365).

So, last time it flattened, price went sideways for about 6 months and then a new trend began.

Strat...do you only trade the trend?

My initial thoughts while reviewing the GBP/USD was to sell near 1.66 (if there is bearish PA) since we are consolidating and that is the top of the range.
  • #3,950
  • Edited 8:02pm Jun 28, 2009 8:00pm | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting One14
Ah, now I know what you mean.

That was actually the first thing I looked for after you mentioned that the GBP vibrates around the 365 (well, I looked for what has happened in the past related to the 365).

So, last time it flattened, price went sideways for about 6 months and then a new trend began.

Strat...do you only trade the trend?

My initial thoughts while reviewing the GBP/USD was to sell near 1.66 (if there is bearish PA) since we are consolidating and that is the top of the range.
Mostly, unless I see a dead cert ATM trade.

Selling near 1.66 is suicide - that is the top of the channel/range (resistance) - you need to sell below the channel/range (support)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,951
  • Jun 28, 2009 8:57pm Jun 28, 2009 8:57pm
Hi Strat

You started a new thread not that long ago. Now it seems they have been merged. What is going on?
  • #3,952
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:06pm Jun 28, 2009 9:06pm
Quoting Surfer
Hi Strat

You started a new thread not that long ago. Now it seems they have been merged. What is going on?
I would like to know too!

Send a PM to the Admin
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,953
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:47pm Jun 28, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting strat
Mostly, unless I see a dead cert ATM trade.

Selling near 1.66 is suicide - that is the top of the channel/range (resistance) - you need to sell below the channel/range (support)
So, you don't trade the range itself? I didn't mean trade it as a breakout.

Sell at the top, take profit near the bottom and then vice versa (providing that there is PA)?

GBP/USD was in a channel for 6 months last year. Is that the time you don't trade it and look elsewhere?
  • #3,954
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:53pm Jun 28, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting One14
So, you don't trade the range itself? I didn't mean trade it as a breakout.

Sell at the top, take profit near the bottom and then vice versa (providing that there is PA)?

GBP/USD was in a channel for 6 months last year. Is that the time you don't trade it and look elsewhere?
I don't trade consolidation/ranges - plenty of other pairs to find trends in.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,955
  • Jun 29, 2009 1:43am Jun 29, 2009 1:43am
Quoting strat
Get on The Path and your wishes will become reality as it has for others
Hi Strat,

I have been following your thread for a few weeks now and am impressed by your and other contributors' knowledge. I have been trading for about 6 months now. While I have managed to preserve my trading capital, I have yet to find a method that I am comfortable with and willing to use for the long term.... until I came across your method.

I'd like to be part of "The Path" so I can get a structured way of learning this method of analysis. How do I begin?

I will appreciate your response. Thanks for this thread.
  • #3,956
  • Edited 12:13pm Jun 29, 2009 9:26am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting ceva
Hi Strat,

I have been following your thread for a few weeks now and am impressed by your and other contributors' knowledge. I have been trading for about 6 months now. While I have managed to preserve my trading capital, I have yet to find a method that I am comfortable with and willing to use for the long term.... until I came across your method.

I'd like to be part of "The Path" so I can get a structured way of learning this method of analysis. How do I begin?

I will appreciate your response. Thanks for this thread.
Hello ceva (and others who have inquired),

Congratulations on preserving your capital for 6 months, an achievement in itself. This should stand you in good stead for your future trading.

Send a PM to rogueforex requesting to be added to the members on The Path. He may take a while in responding as he has been away for a while and is catching up.

Then start at the very beginning of this thread and READ and UNDERSTAND each single post. Do not move onto the next post until you thoroughly understand the prior post. Any questions, ask on here. Make sure you understand candles and especially the main reversal and continuation candles - Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BEOB, BUEB, BEEB and IBs. Also learn to recognise bottoms and tops. Understand Support and Resistance and learn how to identify the correct areas. Learn to recognise what price does at support and resistance. Understand the use and benefit of our MAs.

When you have done this, practice and practice on thousands of charts using f12 to inch the bars one by one to simulate daily trading. Then when you have done this, practice and practice on thousands of charts using f12 to inch the bars one by one to simulate daily trading. You have to keep doing this until you can recognise PASR on auto pilot.

While doing all this, read and learn as much as you can about trading psychology - yes, its dull and boring BUT it is far more powerful than any technical analysis. Specifically you will need to learn how to control your emotions - FEAR & GREED which only assert themselves when trading live with your own, real, hard earned money. These are not prevalent when trading demo which gives you a false sense of security or "The Kiss of Death" (borrowed from Amin, thank you). I prefer trading with reduced $/pip to bring my emotions into play rather than trade demo when I am free of emotions.

Learn how to develop and PLAN your trade and then, trade your plan WITHOUT INTERFERENCE during the trade's life. Understand that the PLAN is the key to STRESS FREE TRADING.

Trading will bring out your true character, temperament and personality so learn to be honest and deadly frank with yourself. Ensure you know that you are TRADING TO LIVE and not LIVING TO TRADE, in other words, make sure you are not a thrill seeker who sees trading as an adrenalin rush.

RESIST, at all times, the temptation to go "looking for action" on shorter time frames when there is no action on the daily charts. Understand that we do not predict the market; we react to the market; we let it show us the way and then we follow.

Exercise good money management practices and, after a few winning trades, resist temptation to walk on water. Keep the same discipline.

Ensure you ALWAYS think about how much you will LOSE, rather than how much you will win when planning a trade. The winners take care of themselves but WE have to control the losers and ensure they are ALWAYS smaller than our winners. Accept that YOU WILL LOSE - losing is part of doing trading business - learn to accept the loss; don't fight it or tear yourself up because you got it wrong. We are neither right or wrong, only winners and losers. The market is ALWAYS right.

Within all this, learn PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE. Learn to wait for the right opportunities to present themselves.

PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE is our biggest challenge especially in times like this where prices are range bound and trendless.

Hope this helps, and welcome.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,957
  • Jun 29, 2009 11:56am Jun 29, 2009 11:56am
Quoting strat
Hello ceva (and others who have inquired),

Congratulations on preserving your capital for 6 months, an achievement in itself. This should stand you in good stead for your future trading.

Send a PM to rogueforex requesting to be added to the members on The Path. He may take a while in responding as he has been away for a while and is catching up.

Then start at the very beginning of this thread and READ and UNDERSTAND each single post. Do not move onto the next post until you .....

Hope this helps, and welcome.
Nice one Strat.
The whole thread summarised in one post - hehe.

Please keep reinforcing this stuff.
  • #3,958
  • Jun 29, 2009 12:45pm Jun 29, 2009 12:45pm
Here is a trade I entered last night, we had a shooting star that is also an inside bar, and another inside bar made by the sunday bar. The shooting star was resisted by the .8575-.8600 area and the 20. Price moved down but got stopped at a small support, hopefully it will break it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #3,959
  • Jun 29, 2009 12:55pm Jun 29, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting Naws
Here is a trade I entered last night, we had a shooting star that is also an inside bar, and another inside bar made by the sunday bar. The shooting star was resisted by the .8575-.8600 area and the 20. Price moved down but got stopped at a small support, hopefully it will break it.

Attachment
Not a shooting star or even a Bond shooting star, Naws, plus you have sold directly into psycho support at 0.8500 but, the trend is down.

Also note: A true, qualified Shooting Star can NEVER be an IB! Think about it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,960
  • Jun 29, 2009 2:02pm Jun 29, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting strat
Not a shooting star or even a Bond shooting star, Naws, plus you have sold directly into psycho support at 0.8500 but, the trend is down.

Also note: A true, qualified Shooting Star can NEVER be an IB! Think about it!
Indeed. Even Bond had some integrity.

Naws while you incorrectly labelled the bar, it looks to be a good entry if this is in your plan.

86 has been tested twice - see the two upper wicks. The highest was 85.98. This confirms this level as resistance (which was earlier support). It is a double inside bar (DIBS) setup.

I would place my stop above 86 - say 86.15. The trend is clearly down so this has a better than even chance of working out IMO.
What is your first target?

Surfer
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