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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,381
  • Jun 26, 2009 6:02pm Jun 26, 2009 6:02pm
Hi Jacko, I have been reading your thread and I find it very interesting. The one thing I am unsure about is your S/L of 40/50 pips. Can you please tell me the significance of this set amount of pips? It seems to me that this could mean you could have your S/L in the middle of a couple of support areas.

I bring this up as my trading practice has always been to place my stop just beyond the support level in order to avoid any spikes. I
look forward to your reply. Thanks.
  • #8,382
  • Jun 26, 2009 6:58pm Jun 26, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting mirage_prof
Hey Ninja, correct me if I'm wrong - whats the customary stop loss on AH trade? 50 or 100 pips?
It is 100 pips. It was changed early in the year when the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was causing unprecedented volatility in the forex markets. The volatility had increased to 300+% on the previous years so it was pragmatic to adjust the TSL so that we were not taken out by the "noise" in the market.


.
Jacko
  • #8,383
  • Jun 26, 2009 7:19pm Jun 26, 2009 7:19pm
As a follow on to the previous post ,
Prior to August last year it was extremely rare to see a daily trading range (ATR) of more than 200 pips (and an ATR of 120 to 150 pips was the norm).

On June 4 this month the daily ATR was 334 pips. ..
As recently as March 17, the ATR was a huge 511 pips...(almost equal to the record of 540 pips set at the peak of the panic of the Financial crisis on Dec 17)
And even just 4 days ago on June 22, the daily ATR was 281 pips.

On the basis that the ATR has increased so dramatically and that the volatility has become so erratic, I decided very early that the 50 pip TSL would be too vulnerable to the increased "noise" of the market and moved it to 100 pips.


.
Jacko
  • #8,384
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:04pm Jun 26, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting mirage_prof
Hey Jacko, nice to see you stopping by..

May I ask you why do you currently trading against the trend and keeping on selling euro??

??
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.

If you look at the 4H chart the rising Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) was broken on June 15 and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.

Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness and volatility is partially disguising the move down.... but the trend on the 4H charts is DOWN. (To demonstrate the choppiness, from as far back as May 21 right up to today, the euro has traded in a tight range of (plus or minus) 250 pips around the central 1.4000 price. Making it even more challenging for traders is the fact that within that tight range, the volatility swings are much bigger and faster than previously).

.
Jacko
  • #8,385
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:20pm Jun 26, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting GJP
Hi Jacko, I have been reading your thread and I find it very interesting. The one thing I am unsure about is your S/L of 40/50 pips. Can you please tell me the significance of this set amount of pips? .
As stated above, I don't use 40/50 pips SLs at the moment because of the 300+% increase in volatility.

The volatility has made it more difficult, but traders need to learn to adapt to the changed circumstances. And if you were going to trade, you had to be very, very selective. We hunkered down and became very selective and were still able to pump out high profits since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) started in August. (The members of the group know the profit numbers since The GFC started and the number of pips in profit per standard contract is a 4 digit number)

During this time, our brokers have been advising us that the mortality rate of traders was extremely high, even with their clients who had been with them for years.
The DailyFX.com writers earler this year were even advising all clients on their website to significantly reduce their risk rate (because their broking division was getting sick of mopping up the blood of traders).

But we are traders..we just need to be pragmatic and adapt to the market situation. I am looking forward to the market settling right back down so we can all turn up our levels of more risk trades...but my first rule is: Do NOT lose money. The second rule is: Patience. This market will still be around long after you and I are gone from this earth. The wonderful aspect of capitalism is that it is self correcting and the volatility will be gone much, much, earlier than you think
Having said all that, this is still the best business on the planet. Be very selective in your trades and don't take unnecessary and silly risks and you will still pump out excellent returns over the year. Certainly better than any other investment that I know.

.
Jacko
  • #8,386
  • Jun 26, 2009 8:33pm Jun 26, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting jacko
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.

If you look at the 4H chart the rising Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) was broken on June 15 and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.

Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness...
Just my humble opinion,

4Hr is up since the low in February, we have just broken the last southern correction, by taking out 6/19's 1.4007 prior high, followed by a high low 1.3886 on the 25th then followed with a new high.

fwiw,
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  • #8,387
  • Jun 27, 2009 5:40pm Jun 27, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting jacko
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.

If you look at the 4H chart the rising Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) was broken on June 15 and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.

Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness...
Thank you jacko for everything you do here.
  • #8,388
  • Jun 27, 2009 8:01pm Jun 27, 2009 8:01pm
Jacko,

Are you telling us that you look at the 4 hour chart in isolation? I pose the question for clarification, not as a critique. I do see money management as a major key to your success. That can work even if one is against the trends on other timeframes or if they are mixed, as arguably, they are at the moment. LOL - even the 5 years old are confused now!
  • #8,389
  • Jun 27, 2009 10:25pm Jun 27, 2009 10:25pm
"Perhaps I just couldn't understand, this can be due the fact because my english sucks and once or twice or even more times I do not understand each detail."



You must have been educated in the USA?


Regards,

vmc67 (educated in the USA)
  • #8,390
  • Jun 28, 2009 2:04am Jun 28, 2009 2:04am
Just shows that that Jacko's '5 year old' must be a child prodigy.
My take is that the trend is up.
After a big move up from 1.2900 the market has been moving sideways for the last couple of weeks, (forming a triange) and I would expect the next big move to be a continuation of the upward trend (as long as important support in the 1.3750 - 1.3800 area holds).
Fundamentals would also support euro strength. Current dollar strength is based on panic 'flight to safety' ---lol ---and as confidence returns, so will reality and Jacko's own brilliant analysis of this pair (outlined in the start of his thread) still stands and price should move back to near 1.6
Until the triangle resolves however it would be best to stay away from this pair. Tough for Jacko who trades this pair exclusively
But then I could be wrooong.
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  • #8,391
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:55am Jun 28, 2009 4:55am
Quoting daveadamsbds
Just shows that that Jacko's '5 year old' must be a child prodigy.
My take is that the trend is up.
After a big move up from 1.2900 the market has been moving sideways for the last couple of weeks, (forming a triange) and I would expect the next big move to be a continuation of the upward trend (as long as important support in the 1.3750 - 1.3800 area holds).
Fundamentals would also support euro strength. Current dollar strength is based on panic 'flight to safety' ---lol ---and as confidence returns, so will reality and Jacko's own brilliant analysis...


The chart that you have is a Daily chart. Wayne is reading from the 4H chart. I remember reading this on the first page.
Quote
Firstly, how do you know what the trend is?
Quote

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425750&postcount=4

Jacko changed to 4H charts when the volatilty went nuts because the daily fluctuations were in extreme numbers and trading from the daily charts would have SLs being struck.
  • #8,392
  • Jun 28, 2009 4:56am Jun 28, 2009 4:56am
Quoting jacko
Hi mirage_prof

Firstly, they are not counter trend trades and I am not trading against the trend. The current trend on the 4H charts is DOWN.

If you look at the 4H chart the rising Support line from 1.2963 (April 28) and 1.3804 (June 8) and 1.3934 (June 12) was broken on June 15 and that Support line... turned Resistance line ... has not been touched by any UP move.

Furthermore, again looking at the 4H charts, you can see that the market peaked at 1.4338 on June 3 and has been falling ever since.
However, the market choppiness...

The recent posts about the trend exactly highlight the current dilemma with EU.

I am also struggling with what the trend is.....
Any Tf over h4 and its up
You could argue(and I would) that the h4 is range bound between 1.38 and 1.41/3.
I find it difficult to agree that the h4 is in a downtrend tho. It may have been up to 14th when price hit 1.38, but I think the uptrend resumed then - or have I got this completely wrong??

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  • #8,393
  • Jun 28, 2009 6:58am Jun 28, 2009 6:58am
Sure, I agree that on the 4H price has been putting in lower highs but we are also seeing higher lows producing a classical triangle/wedge. These usually resolve in favour of the previous trend ie up.
Time will tell but since Jacko's strategy relies heavilly on trading with the prevailing trend and since this is far from clear a wait and see approach is surely prudent.
  • #8,394
  • Jun 28, 2009 8:39am Jun 28, 2009 8:39am
Quoting jacko
As stated above, I don't use 40/50 pips SLs at the moment because of the 300+% increase in volatility.

[color=#ff0000][color=black]The volatility has made it more difficult, but traders need to learn to adapt to the changed circumstances. And if you were going to trade, you had to be very, very selective. We hunkered down and became very selective and were still able to pump out high profits since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) started in August. (The members of the group know the profit numbers since The GFC started and...

Hi Jacko
congratulation great results, so if i do understand what you saying:

your personal account grew at least with USD 2.000.000,00 sinse GFC, because you trade 200 lots (4 x 50 ) at a given time?

BTW: I was asking you several times as a member about your MM, you never responded back.

Just wondering, cause if you would use proper MM your lotsize has to change accordingly, but I might be wrrrroooong!

best
mea
  • #8,395
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:46am Jun 28, 2009 9:46am
Quoting vmc67
"Perhaps I just couldn't understand, this can be due the fact because my english sucks and once or twice or even more times I do not understand each detail."



You must have been educated in the USA?


Regards,

vmc67 (educated in the USA)
  • #8,396
  • Jun 28, 2009 9:47am Jun 28, 2009 9:47am
Quoting vmc67
"Perhaps I just couldn't understand, this can be due the fact because my english sucks and once or twice or even more times I do not understand each detail."



You must have been educated in the USA?


Regards,

vmc67 (educated in the USA)
????
  • #8,397
  • Jun 28, 2009 10:04am Jun 28, 2009 10:04am
looking at the past responses its seem most of the traders{crowd} here are bullish on euro.and the only person who is bearish is jacko{smart money} and i understand usaully smart money win.i like to go with smart money.and at the same time i want be a bit careful using jacko's crutch{no disrespect to jacko.please.i admire he is a good trader].while putting my trades and my anlaysis is giving me balance bearish feeling to me.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #8,398
  • Jun 28, 2009 10:13am Jun 28, 2009 10:13am
Quoting drzakir123
looking at the past responses its seem most of the traders{crowd} here are bullish on euro.and the only person who is bearish is jacko{smart money} and i understand usaully smart money win.i like to go with smart money.and at the same time i want be a bit careful using jacko's crutch{no disrespect to jacko.please.i admire he is a good trader].while putting my trades and my anlaysis is giving me balance bearish feeling to me.
I'm actually neither bullish nor bearish ATM, but I do think that both the mt and lt trend is up.

Looking at the h2 chart I could be tempted to go short - but my preference is to wait till price hits 1.42/3.

If price were to drop to 1.38 - I would be looking to go long dep on PA.
  • #8,399
  • Jun 28, 2009 11:48am Jun 28, 2009 11:48am
Quoting drzakir123
looking at the past responses its seem most of the traders{crowd} here are bullish on euro.and the only person who is bearish is jacko{smart money} and i understand usaully smart money win.i like to go with smart money.
Might want to take a larger sampling size than just this thread. Two different sentiment indicators both show retail traders as net short EUR/USD (1 (http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/orderbook/historical_positions.shtml), 2 (http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/)).
  • #8,400
  • Jun 28, 2009 12:27pm Jun 28, 2009 12:27pm
These sentiment indicators can be inconclusive sometimes. Reason is that these shorts may actually be people short covering.

I cannot comment about others, but I favor longs here. Having said that, I am flat at ATM. I would not buy at these levels (wait for a dip) and I would certainly not sell.

Quoting Trader KGB
Might want to take a larger sampling size than just this thread. Two different sentiment indicators both show retail traders as net short EUR/USD (1 (http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/orderbook/historical_positions.shtml), 2 (http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/)).
Its all in the mind.
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