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EUR/GBP Trendmagic System

  • #3,261
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:39am Jun 26, 2009 9:39am
Too bad!

Is it just me or is anybody else struggling with this as well ? Loss #2
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  • #3,262
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:44am Jun 26, 2009 9:44am
Same here its my second loss to, I am getting so frustrated now.
  • #3,263
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:47am Jun 26, 2009 9:47am
Dan, the market in general, and the EU in particular, have been tightly range bound, choppy and congested during this US session. It's just not a good time to be trading regardless of what indicators you are using. Yesterday morning was incredibly good. That's trading. Monday will be better. You certainly can't judge anything based on 2 trades in today's market.
  • #3,264
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:51am Jun 26, 2009 9:51am
Hey Dan hang in there.

If I could offer my two cents.

First of all it is Friday. Tough day to start trading on.

Second, this system or any system for that matter is half of the game. No matter what, PA is king.

The first chart you posted, shows me that you were selling into support IMHO.

The second chart, I see a downward trading lane and you were buying into the top of it.

At least that is what I see. Don't worry. Stick to it, and build upon these losses to better help your winners that will be coming your way.

Lohad
  • #3,265
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:53am Jun 26, 2009 9:53am
Quoting flyingdawg
Dan, the market in general, and the EU in particular, have been tightly range bound, choppy and congested during this US session. It's just not a good time to be trading regardless of what indicators you are using. Yesterday morning was incredibly good. That's trading. Monday will be better. You certainly can't judge anything based on 2 trades in today's market.

Thanks for the advice. I know there are times when trading gets tough. And that just seems to be the case today.
I came back to live trading afer almost blowing first account and had a great first week with 10%+ profit. And now I´ve given back the profit and unfortunately quite a bit more But i hope i´m on my way.

Could not stop anyway, as i have spent far to long to just give up.
  • #3,266
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:55am Jun 26, 2009 9:55am
Glenn,

Appreciate your test results however I've gone back and forth through your posted charts and am unclear on what your exact setup is.

You seem to differ from Paulus method in that I dont see trend magic i.e. you dont wait to short before being under a red TM line. There is a squiggly yellow line appearing in most shots though (an MA presumably) is that your trigger line? I do realise you dont ned the TM for stops as you have set stops in place and targets defined.

Looks like you might also be using Trix?

Do you infact await all 4 MTF bars to show the same colour which again would be different to Paulus as I beieve he only looks for the lowest timeframe + one other?

Thanks Glenn.


Quoting Gleneagles
Just a quick note while I wait for the gbpjpy to decide whether it will hit last TP or stop out the remainder.

This trading method is very easy to trade because you always have a plain and simple colour snapshot of what is happening in the market in the form of a MTF indi.

If you analyze the results closely, looking at highs and lows achieved by each trade, adjusting your TP to optimize, introducing a TS on " last lot " , you can probably extract another 20% plus from the trading results.

But hey.... bottom line is, at least try to trade...
  • #3,267
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:57am Jun 26, 2009 9:57am
Quoting DanFX
Tried the 10 plan the first time.... and guess what
Not sure I see the loss. You are not using HA candles either. Short was there, your entry at around 1.6485. Low reached about 1.6465 before a long signal was generated. HA never closed above MA. Yes, was very erratic, typical Friday PA.

Also, Trix and accompanying indi's on your chart are ALL short. he only thing I can see is a regular candle closing above the MA which may have had you exit. Again, I have mentioned the HA on this MT4 platform as a preferred setup.

Compare to what I am seeing a judge for yourself. You have to get to a point where a -25 on a GB pair is not so alarming. Scalping is pure probability theory trading. This setup, looking at the 4 pairs I monitor daily, is running at better than 80%. As such, every 100 trades are going to produce approx 80 wins and 20 losses. Basic math shows 80 x $100 = $8000 and 20 x $250 = (-$5000) for a net of +$3000. This is based on trading 1 standard lot.

This plan also will generate around 100 trades WEEKLY and that is only during MY trading time.

Today is lousy PA but still tolerable in terms of production. Not sure how I am going to use this 'stoch' thing, but do not need the FT anymore as the Trix crossing zero is an adequate trigger. 'Stoch' may be able to be utilized as a primer when set to 5,3,1 but need to see it operate more than a few hours.

First chart is with normal setup. (Purple vertical is U.S. market open)

Second chart is interesting!

Take a close look at the 7 WMA and the stoch set at 5,3,1. May be a chance to get into a trade earlier. Also, the Trix is set at 2,1,false,1500. In almost every case, trade entry on ANY pair could have been at least 5 pips earlier. Yes, there are a few signals that did not or would not have panned out, but we all know that is a distinct possibilily. As mentioned before, I like the +10 plan. Hoever, I like a +5 Plan even better. I would rather go after less pips with larger positions than visa versa.

Good possibilities scalping maybe. Just need some more study on that matter.

Regards.
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  • #3,268
  • Jun 26, 2009 9:59am Jun 26, 2009 9:59am
Quoting DanFX

I know that! Loosing is part of the buisiness . But after all we´re all looking to find a way to be on the winning side ... at least more often.

And it seems it´s getting more and more impossible for me

There are lot using trix with this system so I decided to revisited the THV 3 system by cobraforex & friends.
Won't post any screen shots too many indicators, I might get in trouble with the Lion King etc... Combined THV3, with Trend magic etc, Will post my results if they are any good.
You can find THV3 at: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=127271
They are working on an EA for it too.
I agree with TudorGirl, scalping is stressful, any way you do it, but some ways a little less stressful than others.
  • #3,269
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:01am Jun 26, 2009 10:01am
Take a look at this setup, i think it is the setup mentioned by Notch.

Lots of good signals good for 10P and one fail signal, but hey this is part of scalping..
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  • #3,270
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:10am Jun 26, 2009 10:10am
Quoting flyingdawg
Dan, the market in general, and the EU in particular, have been tightly range bound, choppy and congested during this US session. It's just not a good time to be trading regardless of what indicators you are using. Yesterday morning was incredibly good. That's trading. Monday will be better. You certainly can't judge anything based on 2 trades in today's market.
The defense rests.

I am working on lots of stuff folks. It has been an excellent week and even today is a positive day. The fact that there are some experiencing 'frustration' is a tell tale indi that there is mental work to be done.

In short, if you are experiencing alot of emotion, you have a few demons we need to battle here.

Anne mentioned the 1H as an alternative. Am working some things on that also. Trading 1 lot when scalping works fine for me on a 5M, however, trading .3 to .5 lots on a 1H is pretty easy too. You can be a swing trader or a scalper, but the most important thing to decide is what your MENTAL makeup will allow you to do more comfortably.

In the end a $100 win is a $100 win and a $100 loss is a $100 loss. I just prefer the slight adrenaline rush of scalping. It is definitely not for everyone and is indeed an acquired skill. It will most assuredly take more than one week or so.

Regards.
  • #3,271
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:14am Jun 26, 2009 10:14am
Quoting tex
Take a look at this setup, i think it is the setup mentioned by Notch.

Lots of good signals good for 10P and one fail signal, but hey this is part of scalping..
Exactly.
  • #3,272
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:37am Jun 26, 2009 10:37am
Quoting tex
Take a look at this setup, i think it is the setup mentioned by Notch.

Lots of good signals good for 10P and one fail signal, but hey this is part of scalping..
This is a screenshot of a system with a repainting indicator and there is now way you would have taken this trades in real time.
  • #3,273
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:40am Jun 26, 2009 10:40am
Quoting DanFX
Too bad!

Is it just me or is anybody else struggling with this as well ? Loss #2
Depending on your SL levels, this could be a loosing trade.
Anyhow as with all trending systems we are getting killed in ranging / consolidation periods. This is of course more stressed when trading on lower timeframes such as 5 / 1mins.

If one can provide mehanical rules for trading this system with at least 1:1 RR and 50%, I have compounding money management strategy with could yield VERY impressive results over a period (it's not martingale).

But still I am unable to find consistent strategy which would satisfy those requirements.


fxgg
  • #3,274
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:41am Jun 26, 2009 10:41am
Quoting scartree
4xStar - thanks for your response. I was aware of the other factors but although I have seen this question asked in this thread, there was no answer. I have searched the Forum and have even Googled for the answer but I am afraid that you're right and that the only way to find a post is by roughly figuring how many posts per page and doing a page reference to get approx close to the post requiired. Thanks anyway - if there was a way, it would save time.
Maybe this would be a good suggestion to make to FF admin .. I think there is a thread for that purpose.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #3,275
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:44am Jun 26, 2009 10:44am
Yes TGHV repaints, BUT that screenshot is realtime, i didnt change TF or closed down MT4. Just watch it in realtime and you will see.



Quoting MCFly
This is a screenshot of a system with a repainting indicator and there is now way you would have taken this trades in real time.
  • #3,276
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:46am Jun 26, 2009 10:46am
I am definitely starting to get the hang of this and one thing I have started doing is checking TG's 'clean' one hour charts prior to deciding how to play the 5min. If 1 hour is showing down, I only short the 5 min when signals occur, vice versa if one hour is showing trend up. This assessment depends on the voracity on 1 hour and on the pivot points .. plus Mark's 2 eyeballs of course

I still need to learn to move more quickly and to ditch the losers sooner. But this week has definitely shown progress. Thanks to all!

The next few posts, I will add something else to the mix, for the 1 min chart enthusiasts.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #3,277
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:49am Jun 26, 2009 10:49am
Quoting tex
Yes TGHV repaints, BUT that screenshot is realtime, i didnt change TF or closed down MT4. Just watch it in realtime and you will see.
The HV indicator repaints in real time not after changing the timeframe or reopen meta trader. What you see as a valid signal was in real time a no go. Try it in real time or use the trade simulator but screenshots from the past do not work for showing entry signals.
  • #3,278
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:53am Jun 26, 2009 10:53am
I posted this information before but it may have gotten lost in the shuffle, this time I will show some charts ... the ones below are for GU, the top one is nothing but a line chart and the 2 ma's (50ema and 200ema). It is pretty self-explanatory even tho today was not the best example.

Whenever the 200 ma slopes upward or downward, look what happens every time price touches it. In a real trend, this is even more dramatic.

The bottom chart shows a close up of the top one, with line changed to candles and addition of stoch bars. The 'price touch' of the 200 ema gives a slightly earlier entry (although with more possibility of some temporary pain (!)).

What I have been doing is using the price touch for an initial entry and the stoch bar changing for another entry .. I close the first at +10 or when I enter the second one, whichever is greater. Second is closed at the usual +10.

I think this has real merit .. I've been using it off & on for months and the trick is having the patience to wait for a real pullback to the 200 ema .. if you get in at the 50ema pullback, it is more of a gamble but if stock is heavily trending, even this works out well.

Would appreciate comments and maybe Paulus can play with this and further fine-tune our 1 min scalp setup.

(next post will be the GY .. yes this can work well even with the "Beast')
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******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #3,279
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:54am Jun 26, 2009 10:54am
After days of reading, countless cups of coffee and almost burning my eyes out, I have finally reached the end of this amazing thread. I have taken notes along the way, downloaded more files than Microsoft generate in a year and tried to make sense of all the variations on offer here. I will have questions to the authors of all the methods once I've gone through and tried them out but just to say thanks to everyone who has contributed, keep up the good work.
Dream big, start small. Have it all
  • #3,280
  • Jun 26, 2009 10:55am Jun 26, 2009 10:55am
Quoting MCFly
The HV indicator repaints in real time not after changing the timeframe or reopen meta trader. What you see as a valid signal was in real time a no go. Try it in real time or use the trade simulator but screenshots from the past do not work for showing entry signals.
^

how much real time do u want ? Just made +10P, i ll post one when i am in next time..
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