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  • #81
  • Jun 24, 2009 10:59am Jun 24, 2009 10:59am
Sorry if this answer already exists somewhere - here it is - with all this money being created by our Government , wont Inflation , eventually , crush the piss out of our Dollar? Sending its value screaming south? And- where did all those quadrillions of Dollars go we all "lost"-who has them now?
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #82
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:05am Jun 24, 2009 11:05am
Quoting 8fingers
Sorry if this answer already exists somewhere - here it is - with all this money being created by our Government , wont Inflation , eventually , crush the piss out of our Dollar? Sending its value screaming south? And- where did all those quadrillions of Dollars go we all "lost"-who has them now?
The dollar has already lost a crapload of value ever since they let go of the gold standard in the 70's and let the currency float. In fact this is reflected in the rise of prices on important commodities such as food and gold. The reason though why the dollar hasn't fallen in value relative to other currencies around the world is due to the same thing - their Central Banks are also printing money out of thin air and provide ever increasing liquidity in the market as well. What's worse, these Central Banks around the globe also manipulate the market whenever they see fit.

Ultimately, when trading in the forex market, we have to take into account all these factors to arrive at a very sensible prediction. Unfortunately we don't have all the data around like the insiders do. If we did, we ordinary people should be rich by now..
  • #83
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:36am Jun 24, 2009 11:36am
As far as the statement is concerned, the main thing is that the language regarding the threat of deflation has been removed.

April 29: "In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term."

Today: "The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time."

The language on rates was the same: "...economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."

They aren't extending their Treasury purchase plan and their plan for MBS remains the same.

I don't see an MFE here.
  • #84
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:51am Jun 24, 2009 11:51am
Quoting NewstraderFX
As far as the statement is concerned, the main thing is that the language regarding the threat of deflation has been removed.

April 29: "In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term."

Today: "The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost...
NTFX I've shorted the USDCAD and made a long with the AUDUSD pairs. Seeing that the FED didn't raise interest rates and that they will still stick with their plan to purchase $1.3 trillion worth of derivatives by the end of the year ($300 billion by the end of August), was I right with my decision or was this a boneaheaded attempt on my part? I am trading long-term after all..
  • #85
  • Edited Jun 25, 2009 1:46am Jun 24, 2009 12:38pm | Edited Jun 25, 2009 1:46am
I'm really not looking at any trades now Sniper. I think it's a terrible time to trade because there's no clear strong fundamental driver.

For now, the markets look to remain in a mostly sideways pattern that could edge slowly up or down but either way, the swings will be too unpredictable.
  • #86
  • Edited 11:07am Jun 25, 2009 10:41am | Edited 11:07am
This is important: Fed Trims Emergency Lending Programs as Crisis Wanes (Update1)

This is the kind of information that could spark a decent rally in equity markets, so I would look to short the dollar on that basis.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/NewstraderFX
  • #87
  • Jun 25, 2009 10:57am Jun 25, 2009 10:57am
why so sure for short? isn't it mixed even if rumor is true?

less money print will regain value for dollar,
but long term recovery will release buy pressure of dollar for risk aversion.

Quoting NewstraderFX
This is important: Fed Trims Emergency Lending Programs as Crisis Wanes (Update1)

This is the kind of information that could spark a decent rally so I would look to short the dollar.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/NewstraderFX
  • #88
  • Edited 12:27pm Jun 25, 2009 11:06am | Edited 12:27pm
Do whatever you think is right. The reasons behind this trade are posted all over this thread.
  • #89
  • Jun 25, 2009 11:21am Jun 25, 2009 11:21am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Do whatever you think is right.
I am not suggesting about trading decisions of reverse way... just query/confirm the reasons behind.

isn't it safer to be not doing what we think is not 97% solid?? just watching will not charge a cost...

some people even a 16% chance of lose will cause to be unhappy (1 sigma probability event)...
so we just stand back watch till it is very sure... (2 sigma or 3 sigma possibility event)
  • #90
  • Jun 25, 2009 12:25pm Jun 25, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
This is important: Fed Trims Emergency Lending Programs as Crisis Wanes (Update1)

This is the kind of information that could spark a decent rally in equity markets, so I would look to short the dollar on that basis.

Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/NewstraderFX
Fundamentally that doesn't make sense, if the FED stops its lending programs to flood the market with cheap cash, isn't the opposite supposed to happen - ie the dollar should go strong? But I'm looking at this in the Austrian viewpoint so we may have different approaches here.

Ultimately though, I'm still for the dollar going short but not for the reasons you mentioned. First off, the unemployment records are quote high, in fact the unemployment claims have risen from 612k to 627k in the past week alone. That's at least a 0.024% increase. Though not much, employment DOES equate to productivity and an increase of employment does equate to an increase of goods and services. A decrease on the employment on the other hand DOES indicate the opposite.

Secondly, the FED still hasn't increased the interest rates, that means additional funds in the money supply don't you think? And not to mention that they will buy $300 billion worth of treasuries this autumn, this does not bode well for the dollar in the long-term. Ultimately we're gonna see the effects of this in the incoming months. In the long-term I see the dollar weakening further.

And I forgot to mention the technicals, especially regarding the USDCAD, I'm betting on the Dollar weakening at least on this pair:

http://photos.friendster.com/photos/...403739703l.jpg

http://photos.friendster.com/photos/...237522228l.jpg

Signals indicate on the dollar being overbought on this pair in the dailies. I'm going short for now and hope to catch the trend on the next few weeks and hopefully I will be right, as the pips I get are very rewarding, but if I get it wrong. Ouch!!
  • #91
  • Jun 25, 2009 12:40pm Jun 25, 2009 12:40pm
I see the Fed cutting back on some lending facilities as a sign that conditions are improving. That figures to be good for equities/commodities and bad for the dollar.
  • #92
  • Jun 25, 2009 12:45pm Jun 25, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
I see the Fed cutting back on some lending facilities as a sign that conditions are improving. That figures to be good for equities/commodities and bad for the dollar.
NTFX, I'm really intrigued as to your approaches. Just what Economic school of thought are you following? Even though we see this on the opposite end, we do arrive at the same conclusions as to the market movement

Although I've been taught the neo-classical version of Economics, I'm finding myself more of an adherent to the Austrian School of Thought as it makes more sense to me at least.
  • #93
  • Jun 25, 2009 2:48pm Jun 25, 2009 2:48pm
The approach is very simple; the Fed reduced rates and introduced these emergency liquidity programs because of the enormous problems in the financial markets. They will only start to cut back on these programs as conditions ease.

I believe stocks can improve (and the dollar will weaken) if the market perceives credit conditions are improving. The Fed must see them improving otherwise they wouldn't have cut back on them.
  • #94
  • Jun 26, 2009 4:10am Jun 26, 2009 4:10am
I closed my long euro, pound and A$ trades for now-they gained about 200 pips overnight.

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  • #95
  • Edited 7:23am Jun 29, 2009 5:03am | Edited 7:23am
I like the dollar to gain over the next month or so vs. the euro, pound and A$; the U.S. just cannot afford the higher bond rates which is why we've heard so much recent talk about inflation remaining subdued over the medium term.

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  • #96
  • Jun 30, 2009 6:27am Jun 30, 2009 6:27am
This trade does not make sense after the S&P/Case-Schiller HPI. This is exactly what I'm talking about-if you trade when things are very likely to go one way, you can profit. When things can go either way, forget it.
  • #97
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:29am Jun 30, 2009 7:29am
if it's very sure things will go one way... will market effciently get it there? in that case there is also no chance to profit because market moves it too fast.

Quoting NewstraderFX
This trade does not make sense after the S&P/Case-Schiller HPI. This is exactly what I'm talking about-if you trade when things are very likely to go one way, you can profit. When things can go either way, forget it.
  • #98
  • Last Post: Jul 9, 2009 10:44am Jul 9, 2009 10:44am
Newstraderfx,

Any thoughts on the recent comments by Kohn?

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