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  • #3,861
  • Jun 25, 2009 5:54am Jun 25, 2009 5:54am
Quoting alter
Hello strat
What is wrong with the trade? You were already 200pips in profit, right?
Guys this must be the advanced stuff Strat talks about.

Counter trend, trading into support, hanging man showed there were buyers down there.

That is the problem when you trade counter - you have so many levels to fight against.
Attached Image
  • #3,862
  • Jun 25, 2009 6:03am Jun 25, 2009 6:03am
This one keeps going up.
Has broken resistance at 1.79 and pulled back.
Looking for a nice bar to go long on.

Surfer
  • #3,863
  • Edited 6:45am Jun 25, 2009 6:24am | Edited 6:45am
Yo surfer - you and I are in the same tube! Let's see how we can best manage these as E/J hits resistance.

Strat, how about a revenge trade against these CHF highs?
  • #3,864
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:05am Jun 25, 2009 7:05am
Quoting Surfer
Ha - sure birthday boy. I am not one to back down from a challenge.
You are just a young pup aren't you....

Just to be clear this type of trade is not in my plan. I saw price trapped between two horiz levels and moving sideways. I wasn't even looking to trade it.

I see this as a limited setup with an unacceptable RR ratio of under 1:1.
The 20 was flat. Perhaps it was a bear flag? The first target had to be the prior low. If an ATM trade then I would get out altogether where I have marked the chart.

Can I have another piece of Chocolate Cake?...
roger that...and with a boss ib thrown in and in a medium to long down trend.....Q.E.D and when you throw in a lovely ltf entry trade to boot with a wincy stop...that went b/e in 5 mins it makes Barclays look like a dump of an ATM in the wall..........plus the "take no prisoners" stance on position trading.......i was like a bug to a flame...

Which is the only way it should be....intuitive,spontainious and free from doubt......the very grail itself.....

Enjoy your slice......yum yum
  • #3,865
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:05am Jun 25, 2009 7:05am
Quoting Alexandra
Yo surfer - you and I are in the same tube! Let's see how we can best manage these as E/J hits resistance.

Strat, how about a revenge trade against these CHF highs?
Revenge Trade.......sounds very mafia.
  • #3,866
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:06am Jun 25, 2009 7:06am
Quoting Surfer
I am currently in two long trades. Here is the first.
Long EURJPY yesterday on a break of the long tailed bar.

Reasons:

Big Boss:
Strong upmove which is a retrace of an even stronger down move from Aug 08. Overhead resistance at 20EMA and 50% fib to consider.

Boss:
Making higher highs. Cleared resistance at 133. Nice uptrend.

Worker:
Not a classic hammer by any means but I don't thik that is so important. I will explain this in another post. What is important is the double bottom and the long lower wick. Orders have been cleared out there...
Sound reasoning and execution. My bars look nothing like yours so I won't be touching it. In fact mine look more like consolidation with a downward influence.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,867
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:09am Jun 25, 2009 7:09am
Quoting Surfer
Trade 2
Long AUDJPY

Big Boss
Strong up move from multi-month lows
High of this up move stopped at 50% retrace and 20EMA so need to be aware of this as we move up.

Boss
Higher highs and lows moving in nice channel. Bullish.

Worker
50MA has been support for last two touches. Nice trending channel trending up and 50MA support again.
50% retrace from last swing up.
Double bottom with pretty hammer.

Entry above hammer was taken out and has not retraced much since.
SL at 73.85 is below the low of the hammer and below the round number 74.
This...
Exactly the same comments as for EURJPY as the bars are almost the same on my data.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,868
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:12am Jun 25, 2009 7:12am
Quoting Surfer
Guys this must be the advanced stuff Strat talks about.

Counter trend, trading into support, hanging man showed there were buyers down there.

That is the problem when you trade counter - you have so many levels to fight against.
Nothing to do with the technicals - it was SNB intervening!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,869
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:17am Jun 25, 2009 7:17am
Quoting Alexandra
Yo surfer - you and I are in the same tube! Let's see how we can best manage these as E/J hits resistance.

Strat, how about a revenge trade against these CHF highs?
Already done, kiddo! I got some cheese back as I sold the top. (Swiss Maid - Del Shannon 1962)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,870
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:30am Jun 25, 2009 7:30am
Well we heard from Surfer and his reasons for not liking the set up and a good point he raised on the R;R ratio thing......R;R and "risk" in general is a massive subject and topic which i am always pondering on......

Risk is balanced by doubt and your yeild curve

"i gold coin of enemys money is worth 70 of your own" sun tse

"if in doubt stay out" someone cool

So any more for any more on this????
  • #3,871
  • Jun 25, 2009 7:31am Jun 25, 2009 7:31am
Quoting strat
Already done, kiddo! I got some cheese back as I sold the top. (Swiss Maid - Del Shannon 1962)
your so MAFIA!!!!!!
  • #3,872
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:25am Jun 25, 2009 9:25am
Hope you are all watching the start of a new trend for USDCAD.

She made a nice, clean "V" bottom (unusual for the end of a strong trend) and is now making HLs and HHs. Right now she is at 38.2% retrace and maybe ripe for some profit taking. If she does retrace, likely support is at confluence of support and 50% fib at 1.1210.

Her real challenge however is at psycho 1.1800 which she has struggled with many times in the past. Let's see how she deals with that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,873
  • Jun 25, 2009 11:11am Jun 25, 2009 11:11am
EURCAD Weekly gave us a very interesting situation.

Week ending May 29 put down a belt hold candle followed, as you would expect, the following week, by a bullish candle from support to resistance.

Week ending June 12 saw a hammer except it wasn't a hammer - even Bond would not have put his name on that! Why, I hear you groan?

Well, if you remember what we look for in a hammer - it isn't ALL there - parts of it are, but not all of it. So, we ignore it - or do we?

This is where you should not take candles in isolation.

If you took it in isolation, you HAD to ignore it as it didn't qualify as a hammer.

Remember, I said to always look at candles relative to the big picture and their position relative to candles around them.

In this case, the May 29 candle gave us a bottom at support. The June 5 candle put in a slightly lower bottom but nevertheless confirmed that bottom at support while finding buyers up to the previous level where the sellers were waiting. The hammer candle came in and not only confirmed the bottom AND support by making it a triple bottom, but it also made the previous candle an unconfirmed swing low. This in itself should have alerted us to a swing change and an up move.

So, putting all three candles together, the order of the day would have been to put in a buy order above the high of the hammer with your SL below the low of the June 5 candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,874
  • Edited 11:44am Jun 25, 2009 11:23am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting strat
Hope you are all watching the start of a new trend for USDCAD.

She made a nice, clean "V" bottom (unusual for the end of a strong trend) and is now making HLs and HHs. Right now she is at 38.2% retrace and maybe ripe for some profit taking. If she does retrace, likely support is at confluence of support and 50% fib at 1.1210.

Her real challenge however is at psycho 1.1800 which she has struggled with many times in the past. Let's see how she deals with that.

This is indeed interesting. One has to block the fundamentals to some extent, though there is growing evidence of an oil pause or top. 1.18 does loom as an imporsing level. What to do now? It seems pruden to wait for a retracement or perhaps ride a downmove tightly given the unusual V-bottom and the short term overbought condition.
  • #3,875
  • Jun 25, 2009 11:26am Jun 25, 2009 11:26am
Quoting strat
EURCAD Weekly gave us a very interesting situation.

Week ending May 29 put down a belt hold candle followed, as you would expect, the following week, by a bullish candle from support to resistance.

Week ending June 12 saw a hammer except it wasn't a hammer - even Bond would not have put his name on that! Why, I hear you groan?

Well, if you remember what we look for in a hammer - it isn't ALL there - parts of it are, but not all of it. So, we ignore it - or do we?

This is where you should not take candles in isolation.

If you took it in...

Elegant analysis! That prior swing low may have been initimidating to some. Your entry suggestion overcomes that, however.
  • #3,876
  • Jun 25, 2009 2:50pm Jun 25, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting Baba G
roger that...and with a boss ib thrown in and in a medium to long down trend.....Q.E.D and when you throw in a lovely ltf entry trade to boot with a wincy stop...that went b/e in 5 mins it makes Barclays look like a dump of an ATM in the wall..........plus the "take no prisoners" stance on position trading.......i was like a bug to a flame...

Which is the only way it should be....intuitive,spontainious and free from doubt......the very grail itself.....

Enjoy your slice......yum yum
Glad you got some pips Baba
As the focus here is stress free end of day trading the daily, that approach is not possible. I based my analysis on the daily only.
  • #3,877
  • Jun 25, 2009 4:10pm Jun 25, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting strat
Nothing to do with the technicals - it was SNB intervening!
Events like this can blow away the technicals at any time. PASR gives us an 'edge' not an open cheque book.
When you are back testing you never get the chance to match up the charts with the news which is a good reason to ignore the fundies IMO.

I know you know all of this Strat.

I was more interested in what you were thinking when you took the short in the first place. Phase 1 I am guessing - putting feelers out for new downtrend (The Feelers - great NZ band).

Cheers Surfer
  • #3,878
  • Jun 25, 2009 4:47pm Jun 25, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting Surfer
I am currently in two long trades. Here is the first.
Long EURJPY yesterday on a break of the long tailed bar.

Stop loss below the entry bar. First target is 137 where I see resistance. Half off then and stop to BE. Exit remainder on price action.

This trade took out the entry nicely but then stalled and came back on me. Recovered a bit as I write this. There is resistance just below my entry price so we need to break through this first.

This trade is about BE as I write this. If 133 doesn't hold this may be a loser. If it does, it should...
To meddle or not to meddle....that is the question.

This trade is still just below break even. It has not done what I expected as yet. Prefer a decisive move in my direction.
Protecting capital is first priority always.
5 upper wicks but price could not close above 134.5 yet. This is what I need to happen next.
Stop tightened to 132.40. Below .50 psycho and if it gets down there at this stage my reasons for entering this trade are no longer valid.

Trade 2 is AUDJPY which also involves the yen. This one is looking a lot better as of now.

Surfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_090626_tightenstop.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #3,879
  • Jun 25, 2009 4:53pm Jun 25, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Surfer
Events like this can blow away the technicals at any time. PASR gives us an 'edge' not an open cheque book.
When you are back testing you never get the chance to match up the charts with the news which is a good reason to ignore the fundies IMO.

I know you know all of this Strat.

I was more interested in what you were thinking when you took the short in the first place. Phase 1 I am guessing - putting feelers out for new downtrend (The Feelers - great NZ band).

Cheers Surfer
Nah, just getting in on the start of the down cycle which "should" resume again like it did April 19 to 26. Can't remember what I was thinking though - probably about a blue eyed blonde with big ................but that's another story!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,880
  • Jun 25, 2009 5:03pm Jun 25, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting Surfer
To meddle or not to meddle....that is the question.

This trade is still just below break even. It has not done what I expected as yet. Prefer a decisive move in my direction.
Protecting capital is first priority always.
5 upper wicks but price could not close above 134.5 yet. This is what I need to happen next.
Stop tightened to 132.40. Below .50 psycho and if it gets down there at this stage my reasons for entering this trade are no longer valid.

Trade 2 is AUDJPY which also involves the yen. This one is looking a lot better as of now.

Surfer...
"To meddle or not to meddle....that is the question"

That definitely is NOT the question. Stick with your PLAN! Did you have a PLAN?

Interfering and meddling is trading by emotions - the LAST thing you want to do - stick with your PLAN.

If you don't have a PLAN listen to Eric Burdon of The Animals singing a song about where he lives and where he is now.

Do not trade without a PLAN.

They are both crap trades on my data but then your data is very different from mine - maybe it's something to do with all the Kiwi sheep. Did I ever tell the story about a mate who put the back legs of a sheep down his wellies?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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