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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,981
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:43am Jun 24, 2009 3:43am
Quoting j-pax
is the price not always efficient in spot fxmarket???.... i can image inefficienties in options or futures market because... sorry i cannot explain why i think this... i have to little understanding and i am no good in abstract thinking.

you mention price latency... do you think we can use this.???

thank you for your help.
Hi j pax, the window of opportunity for price latency has closed since market makers brokers stop the no slippage policy. That was free money then, made a small fortune out of FXCM
  • #7,982
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:45am Jun 24, 2009 3:45am
Quoting fti
nice flag forming, don't you think?
need some flow, to complete the picture.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UidYz1Je77s&fmt=18
huh what flag ? where ? LOL me having lunch and typing and watching quotes at the same time...

edit : me long cable too, just a bit shy of a 100 pip profit hehehe, scared, lots of mines in the field.
  • #7,983
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:54am Jun 24, 2009 3:54am
Quoting maheswara
yes sir,

to eliminate the scorpion fully is impossible to me ...
It's something we need to keep working on and admittedly, it is difficult but should come good with time as we discover ourselves.

However, ever thought about strategising where the scorpion is not a factor? I have an account used specifically for that but I need to wait for certain market conditions before I enter.
  • #7,984
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:13am Jun 24, 2009 4:13am
I think, after a certain point, step by step, withdraw the initial capital is another solution. Anyway I'm far away from that point.
  • #7,985
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:15am Jun 24, 2009 4:15am
Quoting Zoran
It's something we need to keep working on and admittedly, it is difficult but should come good with time as we discover ourselves.

However, ever thought about strategising where the scorpion is not a factor? I have an account used specifically for that but I need to wait for certain market conditions before I enter.
hey,
wat I was saying was instead of suppressing the scorp , channel it sumwer els where it doesnt hurt ur book ,
eliminating it completely is probably like Buddha reaching enlightement
I think if u succesfully eliminate the scorpion , u will stop trading as u have already reached the immaterial world of nirvana as well

didnt understand ur strategising part btw ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,986
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:15am Jun 24, 2009 4:15am
Quoting fti
yes,j=pax

arbitrage is to scalp, the price difference between the OTC accesses. Mostly they are out of line.
This is very cap intensive here, unlike in spot cash settlement unwinds it all.

And they block you due to that you do not get the swap dues because of haircut and the charge for financing.
Not profitable enough for the trouble. at least not yet.
At mom, I am still unwinding much of the arbi.

regards
fti, a lot of what you say is over my head as you tend to use terminology that professionals understand instead of layman terms but I was getting some relatively good interest (2.5 - 3.5%) on my NZD position recently, which is more than I did with money kept in the UK (1%).
  • #7,987
  • Edited 4:38am Jun 24, 2009 4:26am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting maheswara
yes sir ,
that part I understood as well , the solution I have now could be a problem in the future , somehow every solution becomes a problem sooner or later,
but dealing with discontentment is easier than dealing with recklessness cos recklessness hurts the book , and book is the most important thing

what is IS btw sir ?
time for re-reading the thread.
Inner Stability.
  • #7,988
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:27am Jun 24, 2009 4:27am
ECB allots 442.24 bln in one year refi

expectation was 300 bln
  • #7,989
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:33am Jun 24, 2009 4:33am
Quoting Zoran
fti, a lot of what you say is over my head as you tend to use terminology that professionals understand instead of layman terms but I was getting some relatively good interest (2.5 - 3.5%) on my NZD position recently, which is more than I did with money kept in the UK (1%).
do u know that rupiah (indonesian currency) has interest rates at 8% ...
but the volatility band for it is quite high , during the euro move (usd weaken) from 1.3 to 1.4 rupiah moved about 20 percent ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,990
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:33am Jun 24, 2009 4:33am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
huh what flag ? where ? LOL me having lunch and typing and watching quotes at the same time...

edit : me long cable too, just a bit shy of a 100 pip profit hehehe, scared, lots of mines in the field.
Ai ya thats not mines, put on your glasses.
just bull carcasses on the path,la

and some surviving bulls regrouping.
take all the spoils you can, but don't be greedy. do not exhaust yourself.
  • #7,991
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:42am Jun 24, 2009 4:42am
Quoting maheswara
do u know that rupiah (indonesian currency) has interest rates at 8% ...
but the volatility band for it is quite high , during the euro move (usd weaken) from 1.3 to 1.4 rupiah moved about 20 percent ...
its normally like that, the higher rates is to compensate for the volitility.
But if you are skillful, can make both girls productive.

regards
  • #7,992
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:42am Jun 24, 2009 4:42am
Quoting fti
Ai ya thats not mines, put on your glasses.
just bull carcasses on the path,la

and some surviving bulls regrouping.
take all the spoils you can, but don't be greedy. do not exhaust yourself.
LOL not dead cat bounce...dead bull bounce

I have collected my spoils already, staying nimble, actually more like paranoid...

for your listening pleasure
Inserted Video
  • #7,993
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:47am Jun 24, 2009 4:47am
Quoting maheswara
hey,
wat I was saying was instead of suppressing the scorp , channel it sumwer els where it doesnt hurt ur book ,
eliminating it completely is probably like Buddha reaching enlightement
I think if u succesfully eliminate the scorpion , u will stop trading as u have already reached the immaterial world of nirvana as well

didnt understand ur strategising part btw ...
My biggest scorpion is/was accepting loss when egor has taken over. egor tends to surface after not losing for a while. I'm not sure if I have overcome this scorpion yet but I think I'm well on my way. My short sword battles are not as frequent as I would like due to work committments (contract keeps getting extended).

But, when I confronted this scorpion a while back and thought it would be a tough one to break, I thought - how can I avoid it instead? From AOW:

According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one's plans.

Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then wait for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
Is my strategy related to something fti mentioned?

@ Zoran
I think Zoran did ask me about my using the pi against that was suggested in the golden ratios (phi) by some posters here. I will answer him here as it is related issue.
Using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.

This can also be constructed from a phi start point which begins not from the fibonacci progression but a user determined base. Only that the spiral growth then coils into a 1.618 constant of itself. The exact technique of determining that range window leg is classified for my own use as it may not be suitable for individuals.

For the purpose here, an understanding of the phi (golden) spiral may be sufficient as they both utimately produces the same , a progressive growth of position exposure growth. The differences is in the aggression of rescue and attack sequences.

You may like to build models to find your individual tolerance levels. Some may be able to build better models than that which I use because mine is aggressive due the size of my capitalisation, while at the bank. The reson I am doing so much demo is to retrain myself for trading as an individual.

Whats most important is the understanding of the impact of per pip "value at risk" as the position size spirals. It can get scary, so stay to most conservative parameters.

The most important thing to understand here is that there is no other alternative way to rescue badly timed positions other than using this methodology. The basis of the success is in the trading of the volitility, the direction of the trade is non negiotable it has to be right, so stay with the entranched trend, and watch your capitalisaion.

regards
  • #7,994
  • Edited 5:06am Jun 24, 2009 4:53am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
LOL not dead cat bounce...dead bull bounce

I have collected my spoils already, staying nimble, actually more like paranoid...

for your listening pleasure
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C2-me3pC18
thanks, a little too "new era" for me. As you may have notice , I am from the George Yamamoto era. I only know the song "Ai Inomoto" from C & A.
  • #7,995
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:02am Jun 24, 2009 5:02am
Quoting Zoran
My biggest scorpion is/was accepting loss when egor has taken over....
yes , zoran, basics

regards
  • #7,996
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:06am Jun 24, 2009 5:06am
Quoting fti
thanks, a little too "new era" for me. As you may have notice , I am from the George Yamamoto era.
zzzzzz that was late 80's you are not that old leh....
  • #7,997
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:12am Jun 24, 2009 5:12am
just came across this, not the fastest, instant noodle style news and data.

http://www.rttnews.com/
  • #7,998
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:19am Jun 24, 2009 5:19am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
just came across this, not the fastest, instant noodle style news and data.

http://www.rttnews.com/
It's some minutes delayed and sometimes don't deliver important news to free clients. They don't cover many important regions either. .... and their software start with PC, check for update frequently. I doubt why such a little thing need update everyday.
  • #7,999
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:25am Jun 24, 2009 5:25am
Quoting imjscn
It's some minutes delayed and sometimes don't deliver important news to free clients. They don't cover many important regions either. .... and their software start with PC, check for update frequently. I doubt why such a little thing need update everyday.
In the spirit of sharing thats all....I am testing this and TTN, gonna throw my fxstreet subscription away.

edit : just wanna share, news comes with many caveats, I feel more "professional" with a sqawk box style music in the background, hope fti don't mind.
  • #8,000
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:29am Jun 24, 2009 5:29am
Hey dude, I didn't mean that you were the salesman of this website. I meant to suggest you not try it.
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