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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #7,961
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:34am Jun 24, 2009 1:34am
Quoting GEfx
Hi, I had a similar conversation two weeks ago with Auxesis, so perhaps we should call him for a continuation of the discussion on E/D trend. At that time he was going south (4H) and I was north (day). He has been winning, but today may be a different story. I have been cheating going both ways (bi-directional?). My vote is this: trend is north, the movement south the last few weeks has formed this really nice flag that was breached today. Tomorrow is the main event, where Big Ben may help settle this discussion. I am not going to throw out a bunch...
Hi GEfx,
No problem, not to worry about it.
Wished the people here spoke more.
then at least I know , where they're at on the curve.

still under repair.
will revert after satisfactorily aligned.

beaware of lots happening at NY session tonite, the calendar's full.

regards
  • #7,962
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:49am Jun 24, 2009 1:49am
Quoting fti
still under repair.
will revert after satisfactorily aligned.
Attached Image
  • #7,963
  • Jun 24, 2009 1:57am Jun 24, 2009 1:57am
Under repair...

http://tbn3.google.com/images?q=tbn:...pair_large.jpg
  • #7,964
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:01am Jun 24, 2009 2:01am
From my episode recently, I hope the people here can understand, how difficult things can get, if

you lose your humility and allow egor and bias works together against you.
believe that you are too smart and she will throw you a curve ball that can take you head off.

yield to exuberance and it will dull your feel sense and numb your trigger finger.

AND, it doesn't matter who you are, even if you have mastered it all, be careless and unfocused and the scorpions within you surfaces. If it happens , do not allow a loss book to alert you to it. Detect early, and you can set it right again.

Do not be surprised that , a new car or girlfriend, even small events in your life , can just throw you off the wagon. Nic was a good trader, but when he startedthrowing beer mugs at mirrors, the dye was cast.

regards
  • #7,965
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:11am Jun 24, 2009 2:11am
Quoting fti
From my episode recently, I hope the people here can understand, how difficult things can get, if

you lose your humility and allow egor and bias works together against you.
believe that you are too smart and she will throw you a curve ball that can take you head off.

yield to exuberance and it will dull your feel sense and numb your trigger finger.

AND, it doesn't matter who you are, even if you have mastered it all, be careless and unfocused and the scorpions within you surfaces. If it happens , do not allow a loss book to alert you to it. Detect...
amen....

mr fti, just some thoughts, could it be the change of enviroment ? As you come from big offices with quote screens all over the place. Just curious, hows the transition for you ?
  • #7,966
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:18am Jun 24, 2009 2:18am
Thanks for this another valuable lesson!

fti repair session recap:

I think you already reacted very fast to the scorpions. You were in very strong downside bias, then, suddenly you closed shorts and said you were exhausted at the price action. Actually, it was just a slow market but you smelled the danger at first place. Then, on the up move (before the impulsive up), there were chances to go short, but you didn't. Instead, You asked a question--" Is this a USD bear"?

I think I learned a great lesson on this, as great as your winning trades. I'll always remember this real time experience of how a successful trader's brain works when trend is not going his way.
  • #7,967
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:26am Jun 24, 2009 2:26am
hello fti

you mentioned arbitrage and i was wondering did you mean difference in price feeds from different brokers???

yesteday evening i had set my higher TF 5m. MT4 and trading TF 30 sec. on my broker and i clearly saw MT4 was a fraction faster.

i heard people are banned from their broker for using this advantage but i am going to check this out some more anyway.....

i trade 100$ lots so i should be under the radar....

i hope you get your "feel" back soon
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,968
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:29am Jun 24, 2009 2:29am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
amen....

mr fti, just some thoughts, could it be the change of enviroment ? As you come from big offices with quote screens all over the place. Just curious, hows the transition for you ?
it was my long holiday, lots happened good and bad, micky passed on and other stuff, friend's betrayal............now I have to find myself again.

transition from dealing was non issue, as i went up the corp ladder , I slowly moved from active market making to managerial and training of clones. The last 5 years before i retired, i enjoyed the exuberance of my ceo position at the bank's trading subsidiary. In fact my thoughts were that I would never be using my market skills again, until the retail forex surfaced. no way, would i risk , the nested eggs I had saved over the years for the family and retirement. But here we are, the retail game had given me a second wind, now I have best of both, the eggs and the game.

and you haven't understood the thread in its entirety.
I can tell, probably some here can too.

regards
  • #7,969
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:31am Jun 24, 2009 2:31am
Quoting j-pax
hello fti

you mentioned arbitrage and i was wondering did you mean difference in price feeds from different brokers???

yesteday evening i had set my higher TF 5m. MT4 and trading TF 30 sec. on my broker and i clearly saw MT4 was a fraction faster.

i heard people are banned from their broker for using this advantage but i am going to check this out some more anyway.....

i trade 100$ lots so i should be under the radar....

i hope you get your "feel" back soon
sorry to butt in, but what you mentioned is probably price feed latency. Majority of arbitage involves 3 pairs taking advantage of price inefficenies.
  • #7,970
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:40am Jun 24, 2009 2:40am
Quoting j-pax
hello fti

you mentioned arbitrage and i was wondering did you mean difference in price feeds from different brokers???

yesteday evening i had set my higher TF 5m. MT4 and trading TF 30 sec. on my broker and i clearly saw MT4 was a fraction faster.

i heard people are banned from their broker for using this advantage but i am going to check this out some more anyway.....

i trade 100$ lots so i should be under the radar....

i hope you get your "feel" back soon
yes,j=pax

arbitrage is to scalp, the price difference between the OTC accesses. Mostly they are out of line.
This is very cap intensive here, unlike in spot cash settlement unwinds it all.

And they block you due to that you do not get the swap dues because of haircut and the charge for financing.
Not profitable enough for the trouble. at least not yet.
At mom, I am still unwinding much of the arbi.

regards
  • #7,971
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:42am Jun 24, 2009 2:42am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
sorry to butt in, but what you mentioned is probably price feed latency. Majority of arbitage involves 3 pairs taking advantage of price inefficenies.
is the price not always efficient in spot fxmarket???.... i can image inefficienties in options or futures market because... sorry i cannot explain why i think this... i have to little understanding and i am no good in abstract thinking.

you mention price latency... do you think we can use this.???

thank you for your help.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,972
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:55am Jun 24, 2009 2:55am
Quoting fti
yes,j=pax

arbitrage is to scalp, the price difference between the OTC accesses. Mostly they are out of line.
This is very cap intensive here, unlike in spot cash settlement unwinds it all.

And they block you due to that you do not get the swap dues because of haircut and the charge for financing.
Not profitable enough for the trouble. at least not yet.
At mom, I am still unwinding much of the arbi.

regards
i guess your way of scalping is not only in and out for a few pips.... i think i have to read the NYfed. ebook you posted, again to exectly understand what you are saying (very good read by the way)

thank you for explaining and good luck with unwinding; positions and mindset
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #7,973
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:04am Jun 24, 2009 3:04am
Quoting j-pax
is the price not always efficient in spot fxmarket???.... .
yes, j-pax
OTC spot prices are all over the place, within a tolerance band. Prices from different zones and locations, skew towards its own book and order leans. Thats why there is much arbitrage in the spot.

And there is no way, that you are trading on spot prices, you are absolutely unmarketable. Minimun ticket is 2 million USD.

What is likely is that you are trading some computers,tracking certain mmakers , with some programmed algorithms.

If I had a computer doing it, I would most certainly incorporate ,some account behavioural learning modules to track and lean the customers book as well.

regards
  • #7,974
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:09am Jun 24, 2009 3:09am
Quoting fti
it was my long holiday, lots happened good and bad, micky passed on and other stuff, friend's betrayal............now I have to find myself again.

transition from dealing was non issue, as i went up the corp ladder , I...
You gave me a feeling that you found new life in the retail game.

You are right that I don't understand the thread in its entirety probably even lesser. I followed your postings since inception and probably seriously read through it only 1.5 times. I am not looking for a fix (I am not trade broken), the advise laid down by you shed a lot of light for me and I felt a higher level of understanding and you have put a lot of things into proper perspective for me. I have you to thank for that.

Outside this thread, I am mostly just keeping myself away from the buy/sell buttons.

regards
  • #7,975
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:16am Jun 24, 2009 3:16am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
You gave me a feeling that you found new life in the retail game.

You are right that I don't understand the thread in its entirety probably even lesser. I followed your postings since inception and probably seriously read through it only 1.5 times. I am not looking for a fix (I am not trade broken), the advise laid down by you shed a lot of light for me and I felt a higher level of understanding and you have put a lot of things into proper perspective for me. I have you to thank for that.

Outside this thread, I am mostly just keeping myself...
nice flag forming, don't you think?
need some flow, to complete the picture.
Inserted Video
  • #7,976
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:23am Jun 24, 2009 3:23am
yes sir,

any small thing can bring out the scorpion inside ,
my solution when such thing is detected , is to close my current acc , and open my small 100 dollars account ...
I had fought against the scorpion with all might , but it keeps coming back , rather than fighting it , I let it do its own thing in an insubstantial way

to eliminate the scorpion fully is impossible to me ...

ah looks like gbp is easier to go long with , so sad Im rather inexperienced with her , had only used her to hedge my euro position ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #7,977
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:27am Jun 24, 2009 3:27am
Quoting imjscn
Thanks for this another valuable lesson!

fti repair session recap:

I think you already reacted very fast to the scorpions....
So smigle, you got the ring already?

regards
  • #7,978
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:31am Jun 24, 2009 3:31am
Quoting maheswara
yes sir,

any small thing can bring out the scorpion inside ,
my solution when such thing is detected , is to close my current acc , and open my small 100 dollars account ...
I had fought against the scorpion with all might , but it keeps coming back , rather than fighting it , I let it do its own thing in an insubstantial way

to eliminate the scorpion fully is impossible to me ...

ah looks like gbp is easier to go long with , so sad Im rather inexperienced with her , had only used her to hedge my euro position ...
Hey maheswara,
Thats one solution.
Becareful behind that is another scorpion, inferiority complex from discontentment, if you missed capitalising a big move. Deal with that need humility and IS.

Oh....... becareful of new girlfriends.

regards
  • #7,979
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:34am Jun 24, 2009 3:34am
Quoting fti
So smigle, you got the ring already?

regards
Ai ya ya... a wonderful taste of the glory this morning...
I deployed an attack sequnce of 1,3,3,5,3,5,3 from early Tokyo to pre-London, closed attacks at top, got the ring for a moment. Now, the old scout and new scout are in the battle, wait for the attack
  • #7,980
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:40am Jun 24, 2009 3:40am
Quoting fti
Hey maheswara,
Thats one solution.
Becareful behind that is another scorpion, inferiority complex from discontentment, if you missed capitalising a big move. Deal with that need humility and IS.

Oh....... becareful of new girlfriends.

regards

yes sir ,
that part I understood as well , the solution I have now could be a problem in the future , somehow every solution becomes a problem sooner or later,
but dealing with discontentment is easier than dealing with recklessness cos recklessness hurts the book , and book is the most important thing

what is IS btw sir ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
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