james16 Chart Thread | Page 1732 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #34,621
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:13am Jun 24, 2009 3:13am
Quoting pipmyride
Im bleeding for missing this one - one of my favorite areas to long off ..

BUT having said that , i do see 2 areas of concern:
1) the downtrend line as in chart
2) cable overhead trouble

Thoughts ?
wow - this has all broken out without me now ...
  • #34,622
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:20am Jun 24, 2009 3:20am
Quoting pipmyride
wow - this has all broken out without me now ...
There's another one just around the corner. Did you think on Monday there would be a setup like this today? Probably not.

Hang in there pmr. I know the feeling.

There will be many many more to come.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #34,623
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:22am Jun 24, 2009 3:22am
without a doubt this has been one of my best week & it isnt over yet.....lol
still cant shout but ill try....
anybody in eurgbp h4 & gbpchf h4 trades, loving them , they both are opposite to each other, once you get the right direction for one the other is definately the other way ( so far so good)
thank you LORD
thnx J16 fam , there truly is light at the end of the tunnel
have faith people....lol

ps: had a loss on euraud h4 pin, wasnt liking the momentum(cut it for a small loss) ....then wat did she do...she tanked after closing it(going to watch that pair, revenge is mine ....hehehehehhe)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 66.4.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 67.3.gif Size: 20 KB
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #34,624
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:24am Jun 24, 2009 3:24am
Quoting pipmyride
wow - this has all broken out without me now ...


Im waiting for the retrace. lol
  • #34,625
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:28am Jun 24, 2009 3:28am
Quoting squeezy
without a doubt this has been one of my best week & it isnt over yet.....lol
still cant shout but ill try....
anybody in eurgbp h4 & gbpchf h4 trades, loving them , they both are opposite to each other, once you get the right direction for one the other is definately the other way ( so far so good)
thank you LORD
thnx J16 fam , there truly is light at the end of the tunnel
have faith people....lol
Nice work squeezy. Yeah I caught the gbpchf, that .7500 level/ 50 fib was to juicy to pass up. lol

Good job.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #34,626
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:30am Jun 24, 2009 3:30am
Quoting squeezy
without a doubt this has been one of my best week & it isnt over yet.....lol
still cant shout but ill try....
anybody in eurgbp h4 & gbpchf h4 trades, loving them , they both are opposite to each other, once you get the right direction for one the other is definately the other way ( so far so good)
thank you LORD
thnx J16 fam , there truly is light at the end of the tunnel
have faith people....lol

ps: had a loss on euraud h4 pin, wasnt liking the momentum(cut it for a small loss) ....then wat did she do...she tanked after closing...
im in them both also.
took half off the table on the eu/gb and got both
SLs at BE. lets see what happens?? i think price could stall for while??
jon
EDIT au/yen not preforming too well yet, price is hovering slightly above my entry. anyone wanna swap for the gb/yen.???hehe
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #34,627
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:31am Jun 24, 2009 3:31am
Quoting jplo
Hello to everyone,
I have a question to see if any of you could answer me....
I've been reading a lot the forum and I know that many of you, enter in PB's on the retracement of the third bar, even when the PB is not confirmated until its low/high is hitted...
My big doubt is, what technique do you use in this kind of entries?...
Do you enter right when price touch a particular Fibo level or wait until it shows any "reversal" aspect, or what do you usually do?

Thanks in advance
Hey Jplo

You can use fibs for sure. Another method is to use the left eye(see chart). Some will throw up a fib, and see if it lines up with the left eye also. It can be extremely effective. I don't play retraces, but IMO from just observation the "left eye", is the most effective when it is clear like the chart below.

Best
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.png Size: 32 KB
  • #34,628
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:49am Jun 24, 2009 3:49am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Jplo

You can use fibs for sure. Another method is to use the left eye(see chart). Some will throw up a fib, and see if it lines up with the left eye also. It can be extremely effective. I don't play retraces, but IMO from just observation the "left eye", is the most effective when it is clear like the chart below.

Best
Mike
Thank you very much Mike,

I have doubts about that, but I tried what you mention (left eye, and plus if it coincides at a Fibo level)

I wondered if anybody searched for a trendline broken, 123 formations or simply PA applyed on the very small TF's to spot that reversal on price)
  • #34,629
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:51am Jun 24, 2009 3:51am
Heavy resistance on EURUSD appears to be affecting things at the moment. There is a 4-hour pin of sorts in the making, though unsupported by the longer term look.
  • #34,630
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:53am Jun 24, 2009 3:53am
nice one jarroo & jon,
its all about the location, used to read mike, bundyraider ,jarroo and others talk about the location, location, location.....its now sinking in
you guys shld watch eurusd h4 pin, nu 1h pin and gu 1hr pins, think its time to go south...imo
ill post charts later after they close
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #34,631
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:53am Jun 24, 2009 3:53am
Quoting jplo
Thank you very much Mike,

I have doubts about that, but I tried what you mention (left eye, and plus if it coincides at a Fibo level)

I wondered if anybody searched for a trendline broken, 123 formations or simply PA applyed on the very small TF's to spot that reversal on price)
yes you can use the lower timeframes too. I think some tend to use a combo of it. I was just never getting in before the confirmation. Once and awhile it will be right on one of my intraday levels, and then it does line up what would be a trade either way and lets me ride it. A bit more rare, but does happen with lower timeframe PA.

Mike
  • #34,632
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:54am Jun 24, 2009 3:54am
Quoting squeezy
its all about the location,

guess what? Now others will read it from you too

It's nice when the pieces start to come together huh? well done squeezy, very happy for you
  • #34,633
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:55am Jun 24, 2009 3:55am
Quoting FxMatt
Marco, when I checked them they would all have hit my TP before hitting my initial stop. That's quite a few pips over the 4 weeks, but picking the right entry's and noting the potential support and resistance zones carefully is important for this to work.

Matt
Well I don't know for sure Matt, but you should at least think about letting them run if they would all have hit your target. Sure, a breakeven-trade is no loser, but if it would have been a winner, you kinda lost, too.

I know this goes against what a lot of people here teach and I wouldn't say that they're wrong or that letting trades run is the better way to do this.

For very sure, getting your stop to breakeven and almost taking no losses feels very comfortable I know that. And if I'd watch my trades during the day there would be no way I could let my trades run, instead of moving my stop to breakeven. But it's very well possible if you place your orders and walk away.

I've thought incredibly hard about this lately and well maybe someone get's something out of this, so here's my conclusion why at least for me at this point in time it's better to simply let the trades run to my targets or get stopped out with a loss:

Let's say I've got 10 A+ setups that get triggered, so I got 10 trades. Those 10 trades have the following characteristics (I take my own real trades as a sample). I'll use the term R (Profit R) here to measure things, 1R = pips from entry-price to stop-loss. I want to get out at 1R in any case, just to keep things simple.

Trade #1: Goes 0.2R in my way to next resistance, then comes back and stops me out at -1R. Could have moved my stop to breakeven.
Trade #2: Goes 0.3R in my way to next resistance, then comes back and stops me out at -1R. Could have moved my stop to breakeven.
Trade #3: Great trade, litereally no drawdown, runs straight to my target. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would not have been stopped out there.
Trade #4: Great trade, litereally no drawdown, runs straight to my target. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would not have been stopped out there.
Trade #5: Good trade, little drawdown, runs to my target 40 hours after I got in. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would have been stopped out there.
Trade #6: Good trade, little drawdown, runs to my target 4 days after I got in. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would have been stopped out there.
Trade #7: A loss, no chance to move my stop to breakeven. Grrr.
Trade #8: Good trade, little drawdown, runs to my target 2 days after I got in. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would have been stopped out there.
Trade #9: Great trade, litereally no drawdown, runs straight to my target. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would not have been stopped out there.
Trade #10: Okay trade, serious drawdown, runs to my target 4 days after I got in. Would I have moved my stop to breakeven it would have been stopped out there.


So just getting out at 1R, doing nothing once I'm in I'd have +4R (7 Winners, 3 Losers).

Moving my stop to BE and getting out at 1R profit I'd have +2R (3 Winners, 6 Breakeven Trades, 1 Loser)

Okay count Breakeven to Winners, I'd have a whopping winning-rate of 90% and not using the breakeven-method I'd just have 70% winners but 2 times the profit.

If you don't count breakeven-trades as winners though, you're left with 3 Winners and 1 Loser and a winning-rate of 75%. For me this feels a bit like not playing out your edge, like playing 4 out of 10 trades. Kinda you goto a slot-machine give in a coin then decide otherwise and press the reject coin button 6 times out of 10...(yet for a reason of course, maybe that's a bad example)

Now okay, if you have a 90% winning-rate you could risk more on a trade than with a 70% winning-rate, but you'd have to risk 2 times as much to get the same results.

For me I asked myself if that's worth it and the best way to do it...and I figured out that it's probably not. I like to risk less per trade, which also makes a single trade less important, not having to manage the trade intraday, not having to watch the markets and not thinking about if NOW is the right point in time to goto breakeven or not etc. But everyone needs to find his/her comfort-zone...

Just some thoughts
  • #34,634
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:03am Jun 24, 2009 4:03am
Quoting Alexandra
Heavy resistance on EURUSD appears to be affecting things at the moment. There is a 4-hour pin of sorts in the making, though unsupported by the longer term look.

Would expext 1.4060 to hold on the strength of the weekly chart as things consolidate....a bit of a moment of truth though for EURUSD.
  • #34,635
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:08am Jun 24, 2009 4:08am
Similar toe-stubbing on EURJPY at 135 as pointed out astutely earlier on this thread. Again, the longer term time frames seem to have enough fuel in the tank to be able to push through this eventually. A nice 100 pip short though for those scalping from 135.
  • #34,636
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:10am Jun 24, 2009 4:10am
Quoting mbqb11
guess what? Now others will read it from you too

It's nice when the pieces start to come together huh? well done squeezy, very happy for you
yes mike
they did, are and will read about it ,just as i have and still reading about it
thnx
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #34,637
  • Edited 4:22am Jun 24, 2009 4:12am | Edited 4:22am
Divergences on USJDJPY in here may prove supportive for those in the JPY cross trades. Worth watching the PA closely.
  • #34,638
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:12am Jun 24, 2009 4:12am
Quoting aLLerGic
Im waiting for the retrace. lol
You might wanna refrain yourself from doing that

Like Jarroo said, there will be another one just around the corner, I've tried entering an already running trade and got burned several times, as you can see I'm late for the GJ trade simply because I didn't woke up at the right time, but I'm sitting on the sidelines until I see another Daily PA to trade another day.

Don't chase the trade, let them come to you.

Best.

Marcel
  • #34,639
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:17am Jun 24, 2009 4:17am
Quoting Marco
Well I don't know for sure Matt, but you should at least think about letting them run if they would all have hit your target. Sure, a breakeven-trade is no loser, but if it would have been a winner, you kinda lost, too.

I know this goes against what a lot of people here teach and I wouldn't say that they're wrong or that letting trades run is the better way to do this.

For very sure, getting your stop to breakeven and almost taking no losses feels very comfortable I know that. And if I'd watch my trades during the day there would be no way I...
That's an interesting post Marco. Personally, I trade similar to the way you mention above. My backtesting results are what made the decision for me.

But as Jim and some others say, that might not be so easy if you are trading with $100/pip (or even $10/pip)...If the trader isn't comfortable and is on edge watching a profitable trade go into drawdown (or even becoming a full loser), then it isn't going to be good for the trader's confidence long term. I think one of the benefits for new traders moving stops up early is to gain confidence with a higher win %...

Personally, I think the most important part of exit strategies is to be consistent with them over many trades and to have confidence in whatever strategy you are using. Confidence in your trading strategy and plan. Demo trading develops confidence for free. You train your brain to accept drawdown (if you are trading that way) or to have small profits (if you are trading that way). Your brain is your biggest ally, but it can also be your biggest distraction (thinking, hoping, praying, getting too emotional (+ or -) over 1 trade).

As I think I originally heard from Racezfx, "You are who you think you are." Be confident in yourself and whichever strategy you are trading.

But hey, I'm no psychologist. I am a succeeding Trader.

Good post Marco.

Josh
  • #34,640
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:20am Jun 24, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Marco
Well I don't know for sure Matt, but you should at least think about letting them run if they would all have hit your target. Sure, a breakeven-trade is no loser, but if it would have been a winner, you kinda lost, too.

I know this goes against what a lot of people here teach and I wouldn't say that they're wrong or that letting trades run is the better way to do this.

For very sure, getting your stop to breakeven and almost taking no losses feels very comfortable I know that. And if I'd watch my trades during the day there would be no way I...
Great stuff, I really think if you want to come to a conclusion though, testing more would help a lot. 10, although thought provoking, is a very small sample. Maybe 100-200, if you have time, would help yourself, and anyone you shared it with. Nonetheless, nice post.
84 traders viewing now