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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,821
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:16am Jun 23, 2009 3:16am
Quoting strat
In this situation, the Hammer is the ruling price bar, so your SL has to go below that bar or any support below it. Until the low of the Hammer is taken out, it is still a valid entry.
Thanks for your take on this Strat
I think most people try to place the stop at the other end of the IB.
Probably a tradeoff there. Higher risk using the ruling bar but get stopped out less.
Most of the best Hammers and Shooting Stars with the trend don't have an IB following them anyway.
  • #3,822
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:40am Jun 23, 2009 5:40am
Quoting Surfer
Couple of points on this one.

1. This is a beautiful strong up trend line. It has been touched 10 or so times.

2. Just wondering why your horizontal long term support and resistance lines are not round numbers. I always try and make mine round but sometimes will take a 50 if it really does look significantly better than the round number above or below.
Surfer
Strat, I hope it is OK to post this as it is counter-trend. Just trying to pick up on your post a while back where you showed how you try to catch the beginning of a new trend.

I have a hunch you saw the wall at 89 (1) and thought this could be a change of trend.

You also noticed that 89 was a 50% retrace on the Boss and the Boss could resume the down move.

Bar (2) was bearish so you may have tried to sell the break. Bar 3 was an inside bar - even better!
Sell a break of that.

Bar (3) was a strong break. You may have been stopped out at (4) somewhere but could have had a target close to the strong up trendline also.

The move down on the daily is way past the 62% retrace so there is a good chance we might continue. The second to last bar is very bearish.

Next entry could either be short on a test of the trendline or maybe a break and test of 82.50. Perhaps the latter as we still have Boss 20 support to break?

Am I close?

Surfer
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  • #3,823
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:05am Jun 23, 2009 7:05am
Quoting AminAS
I guess it has been a long time since we discussed stop loss placement. All my IB stoplosses have been off the IB, not the PA bar. I have been losing alot too, some unnecessarily. I'm still breaking even, so the learning must go on!!
Amin, see my reply to Surfer on IB SL placement. Your SL is always governed by the ruling price bar (the bar making the next bar an IB). Use the IB for entry but the ruling price bar for SL placement.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,824
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:11am Jun 23, 2009 7:11am
Quoting pipmyride
Is this a classic example of the timeframes agreeing - check the neckline test of H&S on the daily, and the forming large hammer on the monthly (obviously not closed yet , but close)
It looks perfect as it is now - but a lot can change in the remaining 7 days of the month. With the strength of GBP (why, I don't know), it would not surprise me to see a re-test of the 162 highs.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,825
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:15am Jun 23, 2009 7:15am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Some good looking PB's showing up on the Monthly's G/J Shooting star, E/J Shooting star, E/A Hammer, A/J Shooting star, Crude is forming a Shooting star, and Gas oil is also forming a monthly Shooting star!

Of course none of these bars have closed but its getting exciting that some nice PA could be coming our way!
Steady lad, don't get carried away! A lot can happen in the next 7 days - maybe even a re-test of all the highs and then what will your shooting stars look like?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,826
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:40am Jun 23, 2009 7:40am
Quoting Surfer
Strat, I hope it is OK to post this as it is counter-trend. Just trying to pick up on your post a while back where you showed how you try to catch the beginning of a new trend.

I have a hunch you saw the wall at 89 (1) and thought this could be a change of trend.

You also noticed that 89 was a 50% retrace on the Boss and the Boss could resume the down move.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Bar (2) was bearish so you may have tried to sell the break. Bar 3 was an...
Close? You are dead on! The Worker is now testing the supporting TL as resistance so........................

Also note, a good short entry is on the break of the yellow TL which was the supporting that last swing
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,827
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:26am Jun 23, 2009 9:26am
1.3800 continues to hold support for EURUSD as she wanders off into consolidation.

Note also that for those monitoring chart patterns, it is also the shampoo baseline.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,828
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:46am Jun 23, 2009 9:46am
Quoting strat
Be very careful with this, Craig. This was definitely not a place to enter for a low risk, safe trade. To me, this is just the end of that swing down from the shooting star.

Also, you have sold into a lot of choppy consolidation around 0.8450 to 0.8300 and may have to go through some pain before it resumes its downtrend again.

As for funny mentals, if you can find a way to use them to improve our performance, let us know. I have tried and tried and even tried again during the latest credit collapse. The USD was supposed to tank big time with all...
CrudeCraig,

Are you taking anything for the pain?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,829
  • Jun 23, 2009 11:21am Jun 23, 2009 11:21am
Quoting strat
CrudeCraig,

Are you taking anything for the pain?
I moved my stop to BE on this trade and was stopped out yesterday. I would have stuck with it but the 365 EMA did not hold.
  • #3,830
  • Jun 23, 2009 11:50am Jun 23, 2009 11:50am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I moved my stop to BE on this trade and was stopped out yesterday. I would have stuck with it but the 365 EMA did not hold.
Good lad, no harm done then! I'm not a fan of the 365 - BUT it IS holding mainly because it as at confluence with support at 0.8450 which is the REAL reason why it is holding.

A good place to buy was above the Sunday bar (again!).
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,831
  • Jun 23, 2009 1:29pm Jun 23, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting strat
Good lad, no harm done then! I'm not a fan of the 365 - BUT it IS holding mainly because it as at confluence with support at 0.8450 which is the REAL reason why it is holding.

A good place to buy was above the Sunday bar (again!).
Nope no harm done, After the fact though i realized i probably should have managed this trade as if it were an ATM trade, Although that is not what I saw it as initialy.

Still learning a lot from every trade!
  • #3,832
  • Jun 23, 2009 7:56pm Jun 23, 2009 7:56pm
Well the US dollar sure has been confusing for a bit now, everyone enjoying the sideways stuff? No me neither. The weak commodities yesterday drove the dollar up rather than the other way around but today the dollar got battered again.

Tomorrow is the FOMC statement from Bernanke on how they see the economy progressing, further liquidity requirements and interest rates going forward.
This statement still has the potential to surprise so watch out. Any indication that the Fed will purchase further government bonds to further stimulate the economy could cause another slide for the USD. Positive statements with regard to the economy and interest rates will be dollar supportive.

Statement is at 14:15 NY time (19:15 London local time)
Good trading all
Nic
  • #3,833
  • Jun 24, 2009 12:28am Jun 24, 2009 12:28am
Thanks elite.

Quoting elitejets
Well the US dollar sure has been confusing for a bit now, everyone enjoying the sideways stuff? No me neither. The weak commodities yesterday drove the dollar up rather than the other way around but today the dollar got battered again.

Tomorrow is the FOMC statement from Bernanke on how they see the economy progressing, further liquidity requirements and interest rates going forward.
This statement still has the potential to surprise so watch out. Any indication that the Fed will purchase further government bonds to further stimulate the economy...
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,834
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:23am Jun 24, 2009 2:23am
what a set up.... a selection of inside bars on the daily WITH a boss Ib.....

thats the kind of invitation a Knight just cant pass up......did u take it?

sorted........g
  • #3,835
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:30am Jun 24, 2009 2:30am
usd chf
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  • #3,836
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:32am Jun 24, 2009 2:32am
usd chf
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  • #3,837
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:36am Jun 24, 2009 2:36am
A time frame for illustrating the power of the bar......lol
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  • #3,838
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:38am Jun 24, 2009 2:38am
100 % stress free......well kind of......g
  • #3,839
  • Jun 24, 2009 5:29am Jun 24, 2009 5:29am
Quoting Baba G
what a set up.... a selection of inside bars on the daily WITH a boss Ib.....

thats the kind of invitation a Knight just cant pass up......did u take it?

sorted........g
Something a girl can't pass on either ...
  • #3,840
  • Jun 24, 2009 6:18am Jun 24, 2009 6:18am
Quoting Baba G
usd chf
Nice entry Baba.
I take it you would only take a short on the break of the IB down?
Would you mind explaining how you managed this trade?
Initial stop placement?
When did you go to break even?
Targets?

Thanks
Surfer
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