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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #421
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:51am Jun 22, 2009 2:51am
As stated before, I'm new to pitchforks, and am eagerly awaiting Tim's book.

I have read Patrick Mikula's book and wondered if you guys incorporate a couple of his ideas into your pitchfork trading:

1. Reaction lines - or Mikula's so-called "Super Pitchfork." This is where you project forward a reaction line based on the line between the last 2 pivots of your fork, and the distance back to the first pivot. Does this still work with Schiff forks??

2. Time target for reaching median line - you ascertain which has the longer time frame - between the first and second pivot, or between the second and third pivots. Whichever is the greater, you use as a time target for price to test the median line. Again - does this still work with Schiff forks?

Both these strike me as being potentially useful tools, but I wondered if anyone was actually using them, as I haven't seen them mentioned at all in this thread.

@ Tim - please don't take offence at any posts on this thread - it would be much the poorer without your contribution.

Happy trading everyone!

Rob
  • #422
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:58am Jun 22, 2009 2:58am
Just an observation as well guys.

I have noticed when drawing a second Schiff fork that the starting point of the median line sometimes falls pretty much bang on the median line of a previously drawn Schiff fork.

Is this significant? And more importantly, can we benefit from it!!??

Thanks,

Rob
  • #423
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:23am Jun 22, 2009 6:23am
Quoting longilo
Many thanks for your reply, and I will say am flattered, that the Grandmaster of median line methods is defending the Great tool.

Honestly, am disappointed, if after so many years of using a tool you cant
say that the research carried out by Greg is correct and that after so
many years of trading and teaching you have prove it in your trading.

why do so many experts hid behind money management?
why do they hid behind trading psychology and discipline?

what hope do newbies have using a tool that the expert in
that method earns their money from...

My friend, you read many interesting things into one honest reply from someone that is and has been a professional trader for more than 38 years.

Your credibility was gone when you stated I make my money selling things. You know nothing about me. Shame on you coming here, where people are actually trying to learn about trading, ask a question that seems genuine and honest and then when I give an honest answer, rather than spew out some meaningless answer [like the one you gave], you attack me!

Do you want a lie? Ok, Median Lines will be 444 percent accurate when YOU trade them. Why, any time you, Longilo, trades, the financial world will stop following the normal rules, and all profits will flow into your bank account.

You're right--what was I thinking? Why use money management! You won't ever have a losing trade!

Can't you read English? I asnwered your question with the truth. YOU started with a false premise. NOWHERE does anything Dr. Andrews wrote or is there anything I ever wrote or said, anywhere, that states Median Lines will produce 80 percent winning trades.

If you have a high enough education, do this simple math, it is called the rule of 72. If you assume the 80 percent win rate you apparently THINK Median Lines shoulkd produce for every trader, we can simply take 80 and divide it by 72. You would more than double your account every year. If you simply didn't withdraw any cash from your returns and employed a simple trade sizing method as the account grows, you will own Europ in roughly 11 years! You will own the United States in 13.3 years! You will own China and Russia soon after that!

NO ONE EVER SAID this method produces 80 percent winners. Learn to read.

Price tests the Median Line 80 percent of the time.

NO ONE EVER SAID this method produces 80 percent winners Learn to read.

I don't know anything about you, but I live in the United States. I am a registered Commodity Advisor. I was also a managing Director of what is now JP Morgan in the 1990's and managed billions of US Dollars. Before that, I managed large amounts of money for Commodities Corporation, know a part of Goldman Sachs. The professional Forex community is filled with people that started their career because I either gave them their first job or they worked for me as a trader.

And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange holds me up as their Forex Trading Pro--in ads run around the world.

Now that I have told you a little about myself--and its very easy to go check all those things out, how about you? Are you the President of Citibank, paying us a visit? Maybe a large hedge fund manager bored, so you came here to post nonsense? Please tell us what you do for a living and what your background is. I think you owe us that now.

Then tell us where you read that Median Lines produce 80 percent winners.

In fact, show me ANY methodology that will produce 80 percent winners for all traders. Period. Show me one.

Please don't come here and seem to ask an honest answer and then point a finger, using lies. If you have something to say, be a man and say it outright and take your beating for lying. You lied. No one ever said what you are claiming.

I am a professional trader. I am a money manager--if you don't know what that means, I manage money for large funds. That's what I do for a living. In fact, you know my REAL name name, not some made up login name. What's your name, so we can look your rate of return up on google?

One last thing before I start ignoring you. In Chicago, we have a tradition of 'giving back' once we have made it. I have a freind in the Chicago Symphony, a violinist. He also happens to teach young children to play the violin. Using your logic, he can't play the violin, so he teaches violin to children. I guess all those people that come listen to his wonderful music each night are deaf? Crazy?

No, I think you are here to stir up trouble. Go play in the middle of a busy road. I will state here now, publicly, the odds are 80 percent you will get hit by a car or truck. Let us know how that turns out. Until then, go away.

Tim Morge
  • #424
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:22am Jun 22, 2009 7:22am
Hopefully we have cleared the mess from the end of last week, price for the moment appears to be headed south, a little too far from the station to jump on board, so I'm looking for a pullback, retest of the two median sets.

From there will drop down to lower timeframes and look for some signs of reversal back south. if price will comply.

good trading everyone
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  • #425
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:48am Jun 22, 2009 7:48am
Quoting auxesis
Hopefully we have cleared the mess from the end of last week, price for the moment appears to be headed south, a little too far from the station to jump on board, so I'm looking for a pullback, retest of the two median sets.

From there will drop down to lower timeframes and look for some signs of reversal back south. if price will comply.

good trading everyone
a,
glad to see your higher time frame approach that I always found interesting.

I just downloaded
"Greg Fisher - Median Lines An Emipirical Study Grain Markets 1990 - 2005"

Is this a good place to start learning about forks and median?

Yes, I collected a bunch on the way down and expect a pullback...but I am not sure...there is a tight range on the 15M time frame already touched 5 times!

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #426
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:04am Jun 22, 2009 8:04am
Quoting luSan
a,
glad to see your higher time frame approach that I always found interesting.

I just downloaded
"Greg Fisher - Median Lines An Emipirical Study Grain Markets 1990 - 2005"

Is this a good place to start learning about forks and median?

Yes, I collected a bunch on the way down and expect a pullback...but I am not sure...there is a tight range on the 15M time frame already touched 5 times!

Regards,
Lusan,

Yes, you have the opportunity for much bigger participation given the size of FF's membership, but at the same time check out Tim's teachings on his site..... not sure it permitted to post the link?

regards,
  • #427
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:10am Jun 22, 2009 8:10am
Auxesis:

Thanks for the link, real interesting indeed, I never thought of looking at the market is such manner! Keep up the good work here and looking forward for more charts from you, if you can spare the time. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff

Quoting auxesis
Jeff,

Thanks,

I truly believe there's so much more that can be done with forks, but in reality the simple setups, allowing price to show itself, change of state, test and retest are best for simplicity and r:r.

Here's a link to another thread discussion on time/price that has my thoughts on forks and their representations..... this should label me as a median line heretic...

Have a great weekend.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=13
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #428
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:13am Jun 22, 2009 8:13am
Auxesis:

Tim's site (both of them), has been posted here before on another thread that I frequented; I am sure this is not an issue here. Alternatively, just google 'Median Lines', you will find him. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff

Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

Yes, you have the opportunity for much bigger participation given the size of FF's membership, but at the same time check out Tim's teachings on his site..... not sure it permitted to post the link?

regards,
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #429
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:16am Jun 22, 2009 8:16am
Quoting jharteam
Auxesis:

Tim's site (both of them), has been posted here before on another thread that I frequented; I am sure this is not an issue here. Alternatively, just google 'Median Lines', you will find him. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff
Jeff, thanks...
I just found it...
Now I got to work.
CU all.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #430
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:23am Jun 22, 2009 8:23am
Hi Scrutch:

Much appreciated you have taken the time to post your Daily Eur/Usd. While you were slapping a Catalin there; it is interesting that mine is a bit 'wider and bigger' than yours, the black up sloping Andrew's Lines is my Daily Eur/Usd Catalin's. And my sliding parallel falls right onto your up sloping lower median line as well. Let's see how things pan out then. Take care and thanks.

Have a good one
Jeff

Quoting Scrutch
Yeah, got a bit of time this evening...taking a few hours off to see if I can do anything with the Asian market, then back at it come early am.
Jeff, the black formation is the original one and the orange guy is a Catlin from the black guys info. The orange guy has separate trendlines, I haven't got the original formation to rotate yet so it stays as one formation...I'm thinking that that's not going to be the hardest problem but I could be wrong.


Yeah, not trying to put together a 'holy grail' here, just like to see what the lines...
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~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #431
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:23am Jun 22, 2009 8:23am
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

Yes, you have the opportunity for much bigger participation given the size of FF's membership, but at the same time check out Tim's teachings on his site..... not sure it permitted to post the link?

regards,
I don't think links are allowed here and I am not trying to point the members here to a different site. But one thing that people MIGHT find interesting: Every Monday morning, at 6:30 am CST, the CME sponsors a live charting session, featuring Median Lines, actually. You can look at their calendar to see the description and link [or google the name of the person giving the session?]. The session is free and runs more than an hour--it's very nice of the CME Group to give us such a nice free live forum to discuss and showcase these powerful tools.

Tim
  • #432
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:37am Jun 22, 2009 8:37am
Quoting TimMorge
I don't think links are allowed here and I am not trying to point the members here to a different site. But one thing that people MIGHT find interesting: Every Monday morning, at 6:30 am CST, the CME sponsors a live charting session, featuring Median Lines, actually. You can look at their calendar to see the description and link [or google the name of the person giving the session?]. The session is free and runs more than an hour--it's very nice of the CME Group to give us such a nice free live forum to discuss and showcase these powerful tools.

Tim...
Tim,

There’s only one other poster on this forum, that I’m aware of, that has a similar market experience both time and level. It’s rare to see in a public forum that experience shared, so when you find it, tis good to take notice and learn.

Thanks for taking the time,


john
  • #433
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:58am Jun 22, 2009 8:58am
Quoting auxesis
Tim,

There’s only one other poster on this forum, that I’m aware of, that has a similar market experience both time and level. It’s rare to see in a public forum that experience shared, so when you find it, tis good to take notice and learn.

Thanks for taking the time,


john
Thank you for the kind words, John. I know most people are cynical, and perhaps rightfully so. But I do this to 1] share ideas with other traders that are thinking and trying to improve their trading and 2] to give back to the trading community that has allowed me to make a living as a professional trader for more than 38 years now. People, wonderful people, helped me when I was starting out; I am paying their them back now.

Good trading, all.

Tim
  • #434
  • Jun 22, 2009 9:03am Jun 22, 2009 9:03am
Quoting auxesis
Scrutch,

Nice looking chart.

My last study attempts were trying to find an origination point for the fork's handle between the 0 and 1 points, I had moved from linear into arcs ( this is needed for the time measure) and adjusting the orientation of the fork to match the right side of price's retest attempt...

Rotating the formation.... If you can ever get your hands around a median arc! Good luck in your research!!!!

a
I have a fascinating tool that was built by Graduate Physics Students I 'mentor' about the financial applications of their education [think...how can they become highly paid quants???]. The best way to describe it is this: Fifth or sixth dimension in space, take a tested Median Line and its Parallels and rotate it about it's B-C line, to form an almost parabolic three dimensional shape with the same internal slope of the Median Line, that runs inside this shape. It captures time, space and price...but it's darned computer intensive, even given the current power of today's desktops. But we're working on the statistics of the multidimensional shapes...

Tim
  • #435
  • Jun 22, 2009 9:08am Jun 22, 2009 9:08am
Good trading!!
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  • #436
  • Edited 11:48am Jun 22, 2009 9:36am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting TimMorge
I have a fascinating tool that was built by Graduate Physics Students I 'mentor' about the financial applications of their education [think...how can they become highly paid quants???]. The best way to describe it is this: Fifth or sixth dimension in space, take a tested Median Line and its Parallels and rotate it about it's B-C line, to form an almost parabolic three dimensional shape with the same internal slope of the Median Line, that runs inside this shape. It captures time, space and price...but it's darned computer intensive, even given the...
Tim and Scrutch,

I'm interested to hear more about your work and research. Later this year I'm planning to release a charting platform that is intensive in the use of fibs, harmonics and a few other tools for price action. I know and see the value of forks and wondering how much more this could add.

Looking forward to more of the charts and setups.

traden
  • #437
  • Jun 22, 2009 9:53am Jun 22, 2009 9:53am
I'd really appreciate it guys, if someone could answer my questions at the top of the previous page! :-)
  • #438
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:31pm Jun 22, 2009 6:31pm
Quoting TimMorge
I have a fascinating tool that was built by Graduate Physics Students I 'mentor' about the financial applications of their education [think...how can they become highly paid quants???]. The best way to describe it is this: Fifth or sixth dimension in space, take a tested Median Line and its Parallels and rotate it about it's B-C line, to form an almost parabolic three dimensional shape with the same internal slope of the Median Line, that runs inside this shape. It captures time, space and price...but it's darned computer intensive, even given the...
I feel like one of Pavlov's dogs, read that and started drooling.
  • #439
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:46pm Jun 22, 2009 6:46pm
Here's my take for the pair: The pair is still under selling pressure and under going a corrective phase. Let's see if the 60-min Up Sloping Black Andrew's Lines will halt the decline; failure of this Black Up Sloping Andrew's Lines will see deeper correction to the -1.5960+ juncture. The Blue up sloping Andrew's Lines in the 240-min time frame is the black up sloping fork in the hourly chart. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff
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~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #440
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:59pm Jun 22, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting Gt3rs
I'd really appreciate it guys, if someone could answer my questions at the top of the previous page! :-)
Gt3rs,

Does price have to make the median inside any time window?

Not necessarily, price can play inside the fork retesting any of the lines, generally you will see the angle of the fork being played out inside, sliding parallels of the original median. if the angle of support resistance is different from the fork could show possible strength or weakness

What I believe the time window shows is possible measured moves. If price were to intersect the median in equal timing of the original AB leg, I'd have to look seriously for price to react there.

While you would expect the timing of the two moves to be similar, I would look for price action to dictate the move was losing steam, falling back on itself taking out support/resistance levels more than it just being behind schedule, if that makes sense.

I look for the measures down the median as possible time points, but price action rules over time marks by them selves.

regards,
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