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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,801
  • Jun 20, 2009 5:55am Jun 20, 2009 5:55am
Remember, trading psychology accounts for 90% of our success as traders. Ignore this and you will be forever doomed to failure.


I am probably the world's best trader on demo; I can rack up a 98% success rate and make $millions of profit. However, the minute I switch to using my REAL money, I go into ultra-conservative trading. My FEAR of LOSING is greater than my GREED for PROFITS. It wasn't always this way as I had it the other way round when I was losing.

Hi Strat
Now that I’m back live trading, I’m going to print off this post, for those of you just starting out this is pure genius .......The plan the plan ......stick to the plan or you will wear out your but ring indicator
Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
  • #3,802
  • Jun 20, 2009 7:44am Jun 20, 2009 7:44am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Surfer,

I took this trade for the same reasons you mentioned. My feed is different from yours so i recieved a little diferent PB mine was more of a Gravestone doji than a SS. I got filled at 8476 and placed my stop @ 8611. Chart looks pretty clear of S/R down to the 8250 level. I have really been being more patient lateley looking for only A+ trades, i considered this to be one of them. My only trade for the month so far but if it works out it could be all i need!
Hi Craig

Actually we are talking about different trades. I was talking about the shooting star 11 days prior to the one you have just taken. Shooting star on my chart but a larger body on yours.

I also saw the one you are in but just after the horse had bolted.
Didn't like it quite as much but only because it wasn't really a swing up. Nice bar and it rejected the 20 and the prior low convincingly. With this trend it is better than a coin toss for sure.

When will you go to break even and what are your targets?

Surfer
  • #3,803
  • Jun 20, 2009 9:35am Jun 20, 2009 9:35am
Quoting Surfer
Hi Craig

Actually we are talking about different trades. I was talking about the shooting star 11 days prior to the one you have just taken. Shooting star on my chart but a larger body on yours.

I also saw the one you are in but just after the horse had bolted.
Didn't like it quite as much but only because it wasn't really a swing up. Nice bar and it rejected the 20 and the prior low convincingly. With this trend it is better than a coin toss for sure.

When will you go to break even and what are your targets?

Surfer
Ahhhh i see, i thought that swing high was a bit higher than mine! It all makes sense now. i missed that trade unfortunately, been working a ton of hours latley so there are some nights where i have missed my analysis.

I would have liked the trade i took to have had a bit higher swing but it nicely reached up and kissed the 20 so i went for it. I would really like to get more into the Fundamentals of the pairs to back up my trades.

maybe Nicola or strat could guide us to where she finds some of her information and what are some of the big news events that happen to each of the pairs and how to inrepret that into our trading?

As for my moving my stop to breakeven, this is something i am still learning. I would like to go to BE at around 8375 and i am looking to take the trade down to 8250 where i will take a little profit, wait for PASR then hopefully stay with the trend as long as PA is pointing us down.
  • #3,804
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:33am Jun 20, 2009 11:33am
Quoting Surfer
Hi all

Still catching up on the entire thread but would like to test the waters with some analysis.
This is a hindsight trade. I did not take it and I am sure it would have been talked about here at the time. Anyone take this trade?

Boss making stong leg down and has broken support.
Boss below 20EMA and broken horiz support.
Bias short.

Reasons for short trade on daily on chart below.

This worked out to be a nice trade and one could still be in it with a partial position.

Strat - just wanting to check that I am using the tools you have...
Yes, you analysed it spot on and that shooting star was a perfect example of ending a retrace. When you see the buyers searching for higher prices and then hitting the level where the sellers are waiting to sell, you know you have a good entry.

Unfortunately, on my feed, it was nothing like a shooting star so I passed on it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,805
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:48am Jun 20, 2009 11:48am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Ahhhh i see, i thought that swing high was a bit higher than mine! It all makes sense now. i missed that trade unfortunately, been working a ton of hours latley so there are some nights where i have missed my analysis.

I would have liked the trade i took to have had a bit higher swing but it nicely reached up and kissed the 20 so i went for it. I would really like to get more into the Fundamentals of the pairs to back up my trades.

maybe Nicola or strat could guide us to where she finds some of her information and what are some of the big news...
Be very careful with this, Craig. This was definitely not a place to enter for a low risk, safe trade. To me, this is just the end of that swing down from the shooting star.

Also, you have sold into a lot of choppy consolidation around 0.8450 to 0.8300 and may have to go through some pain before it resumes its downtrend again.

As for funny mentals, if you can find a way to use them to improve our performance, let us know. I have tried and tried and even tried again during the latest credit collapse. The USD was supposed to tank big time with all the financial mess in the US, but what did it do? It went the opposite way and with it, took out a lot of funny mentals traders who positioned themselves big time against the USD!

I firmly believe the funny mentals are already priced into the market by the time we hear the news which is why many times you see spikes (news traders) being pulled back to where it started (reality).
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,806
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:51am Jun 20, 2009 11:51am
I've been looking through some of the JPY pairs, AUDJPY etc and found the CAD version which is very like the others. A clear up-trend on the Daily reflecting a similar on the Boss and Big Boss.

Resistance is strong - quite clear on BB and B charts at 88.650ish. Boss shows last weeks retracement to the TL from the SL in 18.01.09. Although the B Boss candle is red, there is still another week to go and it is making a HH and HL. The Daily chart shows that the price broke through the 20 ma on 15.06 but made a SL at 88.673 two days later finishing the week with a couple of HLs and HHs. Price is currently between the 20 and 50 ma and looks set to retest the strong resistance at 88.650 which has already been tested seven times since 01.06.

Worth a trade from 86.050, SL at 84.600 (or below the 20ma at 83.960 for a greater risk?). TP would be the strong R at 88.650 - R:R approx 1:1 (not good enough for my level of risk). But if it breaks this, then there is nothing much all the way to 98.600.

Remembering Dr Joe - it keeps going up until it goes down.
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  • #3,807
  • Jun 20, 2009 12:10pm Jun 20, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
I've been looking through some of the JPY pairs, AUDJPY etc and found the CAD version which is very like the others....
Your analysis is good but your execution is not. A bit frightening trading into BIG RED BB and B bars don't you think?

There may well be another shot at the top but you would need very strong daily PASR to take it.

That 7 bar top says to me the uptrend is taking a rest and going into consolidation.

Take more Gingko Biloba Christopher, you didn't remember Dr. Joe correctly!

He told me "it keeps on going UP until it STOPS going UP" When I asked him how he knew it had stopped going up he told me "When it starts going DOWN".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,808
  • Edited Jun 21, 2009 3:06am Jun 20, 2009 9:33pm | Edited Jun 21, 2009 3:06am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I've been looking through some of the JPY pairs, AUDJPY etc and found the CAD version which is very like the others. A clear up-trend on the Daily reflecting a similar on the Boss and Big Boss.

Resistance is strong - quite clear on BB and B charts at 88.650ish. Boss shows last weeks retracement to the TL from the SL in 18.01.09. Although the B Boss candle is red, there is still another week to go and it is making a HH and HL. The Daily chart shows that the price broke through the 20 ma on 15.06 but made a SL at 88.673 two days later finishing...
Couple of points on this one.

1. This is a beautiful strong up trend line. It has been touched 10 or so times.

2. Just wondering why your horizontal long term support and resistance lines are not round numbers. I always try and make mine round but sometimes will take a 50 if it really does look significantly better than the round number above or below.

3. Strat is right. I drew my line at 89 and this level dates back to 2003/4. This line was tested no less then 7 times by the upper wicks on the daily at the last HH.

4. The latest pullback is in the 50-62 fib area and has trendline and 50MA support so we may be poised to go up again but upside might be limited due to 3 above.

5. I have marked the last two long reversals which both had nice bars on my feed. This low does not as yet.

Surfer
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  • #3,809
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:55pm Jun 21, 2009 3:55pm
It took a few days but I finally made my way through your original thread. Really good stuff! Been at this for a little over a year now and have done all the stupid things that others do starting out in this business (a little bit of success, get cocky, and start trading 15m charts - ugh).

Nothing slapping me in the face saying "trade me" "trade me", so don't have anything to add, but hope to contribute going forward. Thanks to Strat and your generals for taking the time to share your insights and to help fellow traders.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #3,810
  • Jun 21, 2009 6:30pm Jun 21, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting Surfer
Couple of points on this one.

1. This is a beautiful strong up trend line. It has been touched 10 or so times.

2. Just wondering why your horizontal long term support and resistance lines are not round numbers. I always try and make mine round but sometimes will take a 50 if it really does look significantly better than the round number above or below.

3. Strat is right. I drew my line at 89 and this level dates back to 2003/4. This line was tested no less then 7 times by the upper wicks on the daily at the last HH.

4. The latest pullback...
You've got the hang of it, Surfer Joe!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,811
  • Jun 21, 2009 7:10pm Jun 21, 2009 7:10pm
Quoting strat
You've got the hang of it, Surfer Joe!
Thanks Strat

As you keep saying, it is all in the thread. You can't pick it up by skim reading. Just have to put it into practice now as I want a flash new pick for my Stratocaster

Have a 130+ page Word doc to revise now. Pick up something new each time I re-read it. Just caught up to the current time in the thread - took a few weeks.

Is RogueForex missing in action? Have not seen him post for quite a while and he hasn't responded to email or PM about joining the path.

Surfer
  • #3,812
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:01am Jun 22, 2009 2:01am
Quoting PigsEar
Please can I join the Path of Learning? I pm Lance last week
I have very limited experience, 6 months, so am a blank sheet.
I have read the thread and re-read it and am practising, and have stopped trading intra-day ( its just too stressfull!)
I am currently reading J16s thread on PA.
Strat and Team Strat, you are a true inspiration! Show me the way!...
PigsEar,
u are welcome here, on J16 thread, or on any thread for that matter.
In general, FF is a nice place to learn.
  • #3,813
  • Jun 22, 2009 5:38am Jun 22, 2009 5:38am
Strat

I have some questions on Inside bar entries. Below are parts of two posts you have made:

Quote
Post 1
First of all for me, there is no price action telling me to put a trade on but that's just me. I need to see better price action and also get a better entry. There were too many pairs with long candles as set up bars, these being two of them and I just don't like long candles (unless I'm already in the trade). As I posted earlier, these long candles often throw out IBs and I would rather trade off those.


Post 2
Dan, in general, you are right, the IB is a set up......

1) Lets say you get a nice Hammer or SS which satisfies your entry criteria.
You decide to enter on the break of the bar.
The next bar is an inside bar. You have said you can now get a better entry. You also said you like your stop entry order a reasonable distance from the IB.
Where is your stop loss? Other end of the IB or the other end of the hammer or SS?
See diagram below.

2) If it is other end of the inside bar, lets say you got stopped out. Would you enter again if the bottom of the hammer was never taken out and the top of the hammer (original entry) was taken out?

Surfer
Attached Image
  • #3,814
  • Jun 22, 2009 5:55am Jun 22, 2009 5:55am
Hi all


Looks like a nice place to look for a short.

  1. 1.15 is an important area.

  2. 50MA resistance
  3. down trendline

Boss looks like it is making a small retrace after a big move down.

Let's wait and see.

Surfer

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  • #3,815
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:58pm Jun 22, 2009 2:58pm
Moved for?
  • #3,816
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:02pm Jun 22, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting Surfer
Strat

I have some questions on Inside bar entries. Below are parts of two posts you have made:



1) Lets say you get a nice Hammer or SS which satisfies your entry criteria.
You decide to enter on the break of the bar.
The next bar is an inside bar. You have said you can now get a better entry. You also said you like your stop entry order a reasonable distance from the IB.
[font=Arial]Where is your stop loss? Other end of the IB or the other end of the...
In this situation, the Hammer is the ruling price bar, so your SL has to go below that bar or any support below it. Until the low of the Hammer is taken out, it is still a valid entry.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,817
  • Jun 22, 2009 10:34pm Jun 22, 2009 10:34pm
Is this a classic example of the timeframes agreeing - check the neckline test of H&S on the daily, and the forming large hammer on the monthly (obviously not closed yet , but close)
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  • #3,818
  • Jun 22, 2009 11:22pm Jun 22, 2009 11:22pm
I guess it has been a long time since we discussed stop loss placement. All my IB stoplosses have been off the IB, not the PA bar. I have been losing alot too, some unnecessarily. I'm still breaking even, so the learning must go on!!
Bang.
  • #3,819
  • Jun 22, 2009 11:59pm Jun 22, 2009 11:59pm
Some good looking PB's showing up on the Monthly's G/J Shooting star, E/J Shooting star, E/A Hammer, A/J Shooting star, Crude is forming a Shooting star, and Gas oil is also forming a monthly Shooting star!

Of course none of these bars have closed but its getting exciting that some nice PA could be coming our way!
  • #3,820
  • Edited 3:07am Jun 23, 2009 1:20am | Edited 3:07am
The ole "duke of Yorkin" is back......when its up its up, when its down its down.
Very choppy........had a nice win selling eu/ebp in the london open session yesterday......all done by 10.30 am....then she took them all back for tea!!!!(price that is not my loot)

Market Needs a daily bar....of merit too,to end this madness so please be careful.

And im worried that some of you may be pushing the timeframes abit.Well the thing is you must learn daily Price action first and get it "in your skin" only then can you move around the fractals....theres no harm in looking just remember we are waiting for the Queen to invite us to the dance!!!!!!

Also because of the speed of the LTFs if there are any holes in any of your trading protocols(entry,exit,management,)your gonna lose your head......Q.E.D.

Remember there is always the "dont enter protocol" for taking profit....get it?......................G
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