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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #381
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:09pm Jun 18, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting TimMorge
Price isn't going to be nice and 'DO' what you want at lower lines. If you have an up sloping pitchfork and price makes a clear turn lower and is heading for the lower Parallel, you can't just hold onto your position, thinking...the Lower Parallel is there, it will save me. Or god forbid, you can't just throw in a bid at the lower paralllel because the up sloping line is there. The lines have to fit market structure.

It isn't hard, but you have to pay attention and learn market structure. Then when the structure changes you have to add a new...
Glad you said that Tim. I am continually updating my pitchforks to track the market movements. I think people expect too much that as soon as they fit one pitchfork then price must always obey it forever or the pitchfork is useless, rather than themselves for not realising that pitchforks expire when the market makes a different track. I also find that the recently used pitchfork is still useful to have up on a chart as price tends to retest the outer TL's.
  • #382
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:04pm Jun 18, 2009 11:04pm
Great to see this thread back active

Hi fxhermit... i copy your chart... just to learn other possibilities...

Just want to share my chart again......

The price seems to respect the blue lower parallel line and the black trendline......
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  • #383
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:58am Jun 19, 2009 5:58am
Quoting Atlast
Glad you said that Tim. I am continually updating my pitchforks to track the market movements. I think people expect too much that as soon as they fit one pitchfork then price must always obey it forever or the pitchfork is useless, rather than themselves for not realising that pitchforks expire when the market makes a different track. I also find that the recently used pitchfork is still useful to have up on a chart as price tends to retest the outer TL's.
The prior tested pitchfork often comes into play AFTER most pitchfork traders erase it, no doubt. I tend to keep two maybe three forks on my charts thatH HAD been respected by price but are currently out of the picture.

Every once in awhile, price gives you a special prize for being diligent and keeping those old forks around--so learn to deal with a little clutter and let them hang out there above and below for awhile...Good tip.

Tim
  • #384
  • Jun 19, 2009 11:20am Jun 19, 2009 11:20am
This is an illustration of the 50% Schiff (or original Schiff) at work for the pair in the 5-min time frame. I find this 'traditional Schiff' seldom work in the Spot FX market. But this time, that's the only type of Andrew's Lines that fits the bill. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff
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~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #385
  • Edited 1:08pm Jun 19, 2009 11:56am | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting TimMorge
I know other people have chimed in--I was not available to post for a time--but look at your pitchfork, just look at it.

Price had obviously changed behavior. Price was making higher highs and higher lows, crusing in a nice up trend. Then it flattened out and made a nice top, then it changed direction and behavior--and YOU have to recognize that and draw in the down sloping Median Line or pitchfork, which I think Surya did a few posts later.

Pitchforks get a bad reputation because people treat them like the lagging 200 moving average indicator...

I couldnt agree with you more Tim....

I would just like to chime in and let those who are in this forum/thread know that this is a once in a life opportunity to learn from a professional who has personally studied under andrews. I have rarely been to this site and only stumbled on it here as a result of Catalin himself whom I admire for his dedication and consistency of following a methodology which is rare amongst new traders. I certainly can vouch for Tim's honesty, willingness to assist traders by those who have worked with him in the Windy City, that said, anyone who is considering on following this thread to gain a edge should really ask themselves "when was the last time I had the opportunity to learn & work with a successful speculator/manager who has consistently returned double digits for his clients?" most of you, never.....I follow Tim along with a few others such Ed from the trading tribe, Bob from EWI, although not a big fan of Elliott Waves, however his market commentaries are priceless IMO. Forums can be a place for significant amount of counter productive education due to the non linear discussions (stick with your methodology), but when you have a group of individual traders truly committing to being the best and under the guidance of a trader that has performed at a level as Tim has as well as keeping the thread clean and to the point, there is NO reason why anyone following cannot add some $$$ to their bottomline. The markets will always be here, Tim will not, neither will you, take the opportunity and run with it. I don't know of anyone who is as versed in the median line methodology as Tim. Although this methodology is not foolproof (what is), what is constant is PRICE...Ed once told me that "when price makes new lows are new highs, its sharing something to you, are you listening...?" what indicator is better than that?

I will be following this thread and hopefully participate with everyone in a attempt to contribute and learn. Catalin, great thread and look forward to seeing where this thread will go.

Thanks Catalin, Tim and all those who contribute.....Great Trading and God Speed to all.

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Moderators: Please note this is my personal observation, if this post seems commercially biased feel free to remove it.[/php]
  • #386
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:23pm Jun 19, 2009 2:23pm
Great post, Rising sun. True words, well spoken.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #387
  • Edited 2:45pm Jun 19, 2009 2:32pm | Edited 2:45pm
Nearing the end of week I see a price break above the Modified Schiff upper downsloping median line (red) which is currently acting as support. (pheeew... how's that for a mouth full of marbles?).

The Modified Schiff upsloping median line (green) has acted as a resistance at the 38.6 Fib retracement area. Price has fallen back into its previous range. (been in range for a while hasn't it?). The upcoming week could prove to be very interesting if this breakout holds. If it doesn't, well, I guess that will also be interesting.
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #388
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:35pm Jun 19, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting jharteam
This is an illustration of the 50% Schiff (or original Schiff) at work for the pair in the 5-min time frame. I find this 'traditional Schiff' seldom work in the Spot FX market. But this time, that's the only type of Andrew's Lines that fits the bill. Take care.

Have a good one
Jeff
Thanks Jeff. Great charts, great lesson. I, for one, learned a lot from your charts.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #389
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:02pm Jun 19, 2009 5:02pm
Just learned a valuable lesson. It turns out that I have been placing the first anchor point for the Modified Schiff a bit off from where it theoretically should be. Makes a tremendous difference to the look of the landscape. Live and learn, or so the saying goes.
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #390
  • Edited 5:43pm Jun 19, 2009 5:29pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting fxhermit
Nearing the end of week I see a price break above the Modified Schiff upper downsloping median line (red) which is currently acting as support. (pheeew... how's that for a mouth full of marbles?).

The Modified Schiff upsloping median line (green) has acted as a resistance at the 38.6 Fib retracement area. Price has fallen back into its previous range. (been in range for a while hasn't it?). The upcoming week could prove to be very interesting if this breakout holds. If it doesn't, well, I guess that will also be interesting.
Hermit,

Let me throw in a little technical perspective.....The daily chart of the EUR shows weakness to the upside, why, well from my view the moves to the downside from the 6/02 high, which formed a double bar high with a lower close have been fairly parabolic, it was only then have we seen upmoves that have been counteracted by severe downdrafts which leads me to believe...more downside moves are to come. As of the last 2 weeks we have noticed any moves higher have been met with heavy selling. Another key point is the 5/28-6/08 swing lows which were taken out recently and this bodes well for bears from a technical standpoint. If you look at the 4 hour chart you will really see the price struggling up only to be met with rabid sellers, what the upside does have is higher highs and lower lows, despite relative strength in the selling. the line in the sand to me resides at 1.4000, however for me to look for further gains north I need to see a close above the 6/11 high 1.4177. The downside...? Well, I am looking for a lower move to play a A-B-C entry off of 1.3800ish. lets see what the market will give us...However for those who trade lower timeframes may see opportunity, but I am more of a swing player, and generally will open 7-10 new FX/Futures positions a month that meet my criteria if I am lucky 1-1...2-1 R/R just doesnt cut it for me. Daily/4hr is my main timeframe....Will post charts soon, What part of canada are you from Hermit..? I moved back to Seattle from Long Island...Missed the fishing too much...! Although the earlier I have to wake up sucks....!

P.S. Anyone else trading futures besides cash fx
  • #391
  • Jun 19, 2009 10:45pm Jun 19, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting rising sun
Hermit,

Let me throw in a little technical perspective.....The daily chart of the EUR shows weakness to the upside, why, well from my view the moves to the downside from the 6/02 high, which formed a double bar high with a lower close have been fairly parabolic, it was only then have we seen upmoves that have been counteracted by severe downdrafts which leads me to believe...more downside moves are to come. As of the last 2 weeks we have noticed any moves higher have been met with heavy selling. Another key point is the 5/28-6/08 swing lows which...
Hi Rising Sun,
I hear what you are saying. Channel surfing (swing trading) is also my favourite sport.

Price certainly has been banging it's head around that 38.6 Fib area. This recent upward move could very well be a corrective wave rather than an impulse wave. It seems to have those kind of choppy characteristics. A scalpers market, at best.

I have learned by experience that I am not very good at "predictin' ". As a consequence, I have become a follow along trader. That has forced me to pay attention to market rythm and structure. I have previously used individual trendlines to define trading channels and to identify "heads up" trading areas. I am now becoming familiar with the use of pitchforks to achieve the same thing. I particularly like how they define Energy points in the future along both axis of time and price. Knowing where in the landscape to consistently look for high probability trades is, to my way of thinking, the most valuable knowledge that a trader can posses (especially a channel surfer).

I have to keep reminding myself not to think to much about what the market will or might do at those areas and to just have the discipline to trade what I see at the time.

Anyway, trading is a very interesting learning experience and I seem to learn something new almost every day.

P.S.
I'm in that part of British Columbia where the Natives are jolly and the grapes grow lucious on the vine. Come to think of it... that's probably why they're jolly!
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #392
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:53am Jun 20, 2009 11:53am
Quoting fxhermit
Just learned a valuable lesson. It turns out that I have been placing the first anchor point for the Modified Schiff a bit off from where it theoretically should be. Makes a tremendous difference to the look of the landscape. Live and learn, or so the saying goes.
It's takes a bit of time with MetaTrader to do this sort of thing and at times can be frustrating.
Interesting to note that on the last chart you posted...the green upslope formation is almost to the tic as this longer term blue upslope formation. While they are the same time frame, they are two very different formations.
...bias appears to be down...?

Quoting rising sun
P.S. Anyone else trading futures besides cash fx
Yes
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Listen to the whispers.... You may learn something
  • #393
  • Edited 8:04pm Jun 20, 2009 6:50pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting fxhermit
Hi Rising Sun,
I hear what you are saying. Channel surfing (swing trading) is also my favourite sport.

Price certainly has been banging it's head around that 38.6 Fib area. This recent upward move could very well be a corrective wave rather than an impulse wave. It seems to have those kind of choppy characteristics. A scalpers market, at best.

I have learned by experience that I am not very good at "predictin' ". As a consequence, I have become a follow along trader. That has forced me to pay attention to market rythm and structure. I have...
Predicting...? Not quite, I certainly wish I had this capability. I certainly understand where your coming from, what makes the market so dynamic is the fact that everyone sees the markets differently...The ones who are right though, are the ones that get paid....Trade what you see, trade your opinion, trade your strategy...whatever, just be right and if your wrong....just don't let it hurt too much....!
  • #394
  • Edited 8:56pm Jun 20, 2009 8:27pm | Edited 8:56pm
in MT4 the Schiff does not draw the handle nor have any auto adjust capabilities as you know. To accurately draw M Schiff, just draw a trendline from A to B (without Ray) (and once you have identified A-B-C and drawn fork) and double click and it will highlight 3 locations if not already within the trendline. Once you do this drag the tail of the fork to the center of the trendline and wallah 50% Time 50% Price M Schiff. Then erase trendline. It avoids having to draw a fib and vertical lines to get the correct fit. Try it and you will see it, saves time...?
  • #395
  • Jun 20, 2009 9:38pm Jun 20, 2009 9:38pm
You can adjust the handle of the fork or use a fib channel with a -.50 level added and drawn from the AC line and anchored from the B.

A modified Schiff is the natural channel derived from the prior 3 turns, why it is so effective.

regards,
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  • #396
  • Edited 11:14pm Jun 20, 2009 10:54pm | Edited 11:14pm
Spot on Auxexis, however for a standard fork/median it does not work without meddling with it....Ease of operation...? Or from a High, Low, Higher High
  • #397
  • Jun 21, 2009 7:22am Jun 21, 2009 7:22am
I see you have posted a lot on this forum and I believe you
are a leading expert on pitchfork or median line.
based on this fact can you be honest enough to tell
us the % success ratio of your trades and whether you have
reached the expected 80% success rate with this system.


longilo
  • #398
  • Jun 21, 2009 7:59am Jun 21, 2009 7:59am
Longilo, specifically, who are you referring to?

Edit: As you can see, I have more than 600 posts on FF and others have over 1,000. Still, a few others have less than 20; but that don't mean they are not the leading authorities for the Andrew's Lines in our times.

Quoting longilo
I see you have posted a lot on this forum and I believe you
are a leading expert on pitchfork or median line.
based on this fact can you be honest enough to tell
us the % success ratio of your trades and whether you have
reached the expected 80% success rate with this system.


longilo
~*~You are only one trade away from humility~*~
  • #399
  • Jun 21, 2009 8:48am Jun 21, 2009 8:48am
Longilo,

Let me start by saying I am no expert, but I do believe in and use Median Lines (pitchforks) in my trading everyday. I would warn against thinking of Median Lines or Pitchforks as a system. They are a tool, and like any tool you use in life, in trading or carpentry, ect… they require some amount of understanding as to how and when to use them. You would not use a power saw to drive a nail, and you should not change its blade when it’s plugged into an electrical socket, you could lose a finger or two or worse.

Anything you see or read, you should use some due diligence and look, study and learn about for yourself, as it’s your money that will ultimately be at risk when using, and only you are responsible.

The best pitchfork trader and expert in the public view today is Tim Morge, ask him about 80% and I think he will say when used properly, YES! There’s a gentleman Greg Fisher on his forum that graciously posted his doctorial thesis on pitchforks and the grain markets that I believe backs up those statistics

I should add, price can do what ever it wants and will always be right…. It does not have to stop and turn on any line, regardless of the fact it’s the best pitchfork you have ever drawn. Price action and market structure should always take precedence over any indicator.

To quote Tim, “Master your tools and master yourself”

Regards,

@ Rising Sun,

Any (using fork terminology 0-2 line) is the angle of the resulting modified shift. M.Schiffs describe the natural channels, abcd’s, measured moves ect... I have a couple of different fib channel configurations I keep preloaded and normally reference the m.schiff on every set I draw.

There’s been some great discussion lately, it’s good to se the thread active again, specially Tim’s presence here.

Regards,
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  • #400
  • Jun 21, 2009 8:53am Jun 21, 2009 8:53am
Quoting longilo
I see you have posted a lot on this forum and I believe you
are a leading expert on pitchfork or median line.
based on this fact can you be honest enough to tell
us the % success ratio of your trades and whether you have
reached the expected 80% success rate with this system.


longilo
I have not posted a lot on this forum, longilo, so you can take my words with a grain of salt if you wish. There is NO expected 80 percent success rate with any methodology over the long term, and certainly not from any using pitchforks [do the math, you'd own the world after about ten years if you used any good money management and risk reward system alonng with any 'system' or methodology that achieved 80 pct success each year for ten years].

Again, this is where people that a little about pitchforks do the tool a great disservice. There are predicted outcomes that are associated with the pitchfork after you draw it from three alternating pivots that have an average outcome of happening at an 80 percent rate: Once you draw a pitchfork from three alternating pivots, 80 percent of the time, on average, price will test the Median Line [or center line of the pitchfork]. If you do the statistics on 20-30 years of data, tick all the way to monhtly, all commodities, currencies, stocks--all instruments--as I have, the low end is 72 percent, the high end is 87 percent.

But that is NOT averaging 80 percent winning trades! Why do people look for the holy grail? The 80 percent refers to the likelihood of price meeting the Median Line or the center of the pitchfork. That is very powerful stuff, because it makes it a natural leading indicator, one of the few there is in trading. It is a tool with a built in statistical advantage but unless you take the time to use it, you will be just another trader that read someone say, incorrectly, that 'pitchforks work 80 percent of the time'. And so when you don't see those type of results, you will blame the tool and not yourself for not mastering the tool.

What's realistic? Well, again, no one here cares about what I think because I have allof 22 or 23 posts and apparently, that measures your 'credibility. But think about casinos: they thriat on having a statistical advanateg of one percent or even less, because they couple that with a money management advantage. If you can get your winning percentage into the 55-60 percent range and use quality money management and maintain a good risk reward ratio [I suggest at least 2:1] AND manage yourself as a trader, you can make a great deal of money using the simplest methods assocaited with pitchforks.

PLEASE don't post that pitchforks have a 80 percent success ratio. Winning percentages can only be associated with a trader. No one says that hammers have a 99 percent winning succes rate when hitting nails, do they?

But again, I'm at post 22 or 23. I am apparently new to the markets here, as they say.

I wish you good trading.

Tim
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