What do you guys think about this weekly pin on Gbp/Usd? Price break pin low and went 90pips or so, but then bounce from 1,58 level, broke 50%fib and continue north. Why this pin should not be taken?
TIA
TIA
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james16 Chart Thread
- #34,044
- Jun 20, 2009 8:28am Jun 20, 2009 8:28am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
Hello Jaroo,
Thank you for the detail explanation and it really give me a lot of help.
The most thing concern me is:
How much pips will you give out in case you do not have time to move BE and price go back....
Anyone who takes a trade based on a bar....(i.e. a 200 pip pinbar) and moves stops up is missing something in their trading:
Fully accepting the risk of trading. If you cannot get past this, you will never make it. You need to accept the risk. If not, you will never be able to let a trade run, which is where your profit is.
I am not picking on you at all by the way, it's just a very common problem and I saw the post.
We all can see that if you have 3 losses of 100 pips, and one win of 700, we would be profitable - yet so few of us can accept that kind of results in the real world.
Never let trading become difficult. It's just not worth it in the end. If I wanted another damn job, I would get one.
Now back to your regularly scheduled program....
CW
- #34,046
- Edited 10:28am Jun 20, 2009 9:32am | Edited 10:28am
What do you guys think about this weekly pin on Gbp/Usd? Price break pin low and went 90pips or so, but then bounce from 1,58 level, broke 50%fib and continue north. Why this pin should not be taken?
TIA
There are two lessons I see if this trade ends in a loss (which as clock pointed out it hasn't yet)
1) Just because a trade is a loss doesn't mean you shouldn't have taken the trade.
2) Even A+ setups fail.
We deal in probabilities across hundreds of trades. Looking for every trade to win is the definition of holy grail hunting. If your plan/strategy is back and forward tested then you should have confidence in trading it through the occasional loser or losing streak.
This is also why we have good money management. I risk 1% of my account per trade, no matter how good it is, because every setup is a trade that can fail. And it's also why we have Jim's minimum requirements process.
The mistake that we can make, and which I have made before, is to change our trade management strategy when we see losers. Then we switch to a different style never allowing enough data to see if our strategy would have been profitable over time. We go mad hopping from style to style and never gaining the experience that comes from trading one method over years, refining and refining.
This has been a month when some really superb setups like the GU and AU weekly didn't pay off (yet) whilst some of the more borderline bars and continuation bars have really yielded profit. Sure, times like this test the patience if you're a pickier trader. But it's only a month. Let's talk again in year's time, when we all have enough data to evaluate properly....
Aaron
- #34,047
- Jun 20, 2009 10:03am Jun 20, 2009 10:03am
Hi there folks
I´m watching this thread now for 2 months reading and learned so much from jim and the other guys.
The reason why i didn´t post earlier is my "not so good" (bad)
english.
Now i´ve tryed to workout what i learned on a Daily E/U Chart from the last 6 months and do my analysis.
Now I´ve some questions about it:
1) What´ve i done right and what is wrong?
2)It´s difficult to find an entry for T3 (Trade3)
Is there an possible Entry?
3)If you got a PB or Be/BuOB for an Entry, where do you entry and where SL??? Do you entry at the Low of the PB and SL to the High???
I´m shure this is written in this Thread but it was not surely saved in my Head
.
Please don´t be to hard with your critics and sorry for my bad english.
Regards
Martin
I´m watching this thread now for 2 months reading and learned so much from jim and the other guys.
The reason why i didn´t post earlier is my "not so good" (bad)
english.Now i´ve tryed to workout what i learned on a Daily E/U Chart from the last 6 months and do my analysis.
Now I´ve some questions about it:
1) What´ve i done right and what is wrong?
2)It´s difficult to find an entry for T3 (Trade3)
Is there an possible Entry?
3)If you got a PB or Be/BuOB for an Entry, where do you entry and where SL??? Do you entry at the Low of the PB and SL to the High???
I´m shure this is written in this Thread but it was not surely saved in my Head
.Please don´t be to hard with your critics and sorry for my bad english.
Regards
Martin
Trade well and many pips to all. Martin
- #34,048
- Jun 20, 2009 11:11am Jun 20, 2009 11:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
- #34,049
- Jun 20, 2009 11:16am Jun 20, 2009 11:16am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Hi there folks
I´m watching this thread now for 2 months reading and learned so much from jim and the other guys.
The reason why i didn´t post earlier is my "not so good" (bad)
Now i´ve tryed to workout what i learned on...
Welcome to the thread. Your English is great and don't be shy to post, no one will judge you I promise.
Your chart is great, not much wrong with it. Your second question, really doesn't need to have an answer. Sometimes there is no good trade. We could mark up every chart to try to find ways we could have got into every part of every move, but the more important thing is to understand where the best locations for these bars are and then react accordingly in real time.
As for where to put your s/l and entry on a beob and BUOB. The traditional way to trade them is a break of the high of a BUOB, and then your stop loss underneath the bar. This is because technically speaking a BUOB is not valid until that bar high breaks, and is also not invalidated(or over), until the low is taken out. Now some will say your stops will be huge, but again make sure you understand the simple MM concept of position sizing. There are of course other ways to play them, on the retrace and what not, but I will let you decide which is most comfortable for you with still understanding the advanatages and disadvantages of all methods.
Again welcome and your English is terrific
Mike
- #34,054
- Edited 1:17pm Jun 20, 2009 12:44pm | Edited 1:17pm
WHile I agree with everything here, I just must put this chart back up so people understand WHY gbp/usd stalled where it did. If you are a move stops quick trader, take profit etc the way James shows well gbp/usd gave it to the area we expected a possible stall. It is up to the trader style if they believe holding through that area is beneficial(more importantly in the long run see Aarons post above).
But for learning purposes the gbp/usd chart
Mike
Price rarely reverses out of nowhere. That's the amazing part of this method, we can almost always tell why price turned around. It's just whether we think our signal will trump the first area, as shown on Mike's chart. In this instance I thought it would. But I knew from looking at the chart that it would be an area to watch.
Study of this method means that price is rarely going to turn around without us understanding why. Now that's a holy grail worth talking about.
The it's just up to us to decide what we do at those potential reversal points. As in Jim's "This is critical" post that Jarroo always quotes.
I'd just reiterate, if you are working on a style that allows letting high probability trades breathe a little more, and the drawdown on the GU or AU weekly has made you sick to your stomach, now really is not the time to switch styles just on the basis of some drawdown. Give it time, over months, and then see. Otherwise you'll take a quick TP at the next one and it'll end up being a runner. And that way madness lies.
And also to reiterate for those holding either of these trades. SL hasn't been hit and neither has TP. It ain't over till it's over.
- #34,055
- Jun 20, 2009 12:46pm Jun 20, 2009 12:46pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
Hey guys what do you think about EUR/USD weekly PB.
For my is an A trade because of the location,we have beautiful confluence(PPZ at round number 1.3750, 31.8 fibo, 160 ema) and this is the first retested of the rezistente that was broken 4 weeks ago and now will act like suport,we see a beautiful rejection of this line.
If we switch to the daily we see that the first are where we will find trouble it's the zone marked with the yellow box witch is the first TP area.
The only concern it is the trafic on the left of PB and because he heavily reached to form a swing low.
For my is an A trade because of the location,we have beautiful confluence(PPZ at round number 1.3750, 31.8 fibo, 160 ema) and this is the first retested of the rezistente that was broken 4 weeks ago and now will act like suport,we see a beautiful rejection of this line.
If we switch to the daily we see that the first are where we will find trouble it's the zone marked with the yellow box witch is the first TP area.
The only concern it is the trafic on the left of PB and because he heavily reached to form a swing low.
- #34,056
- Jun 20, 2009 1:13pm Jun 20, 2009 1:13pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
If you pay attention to the previous resistance turned support, you would expect that there might not be that much of the room for this PIN trade to develop. I guess this is one of those take profit quick case.
On the other hand, last week's bar formed an I4B pattern. Let's see which way it will go and make sure to watch for the next resistance or support.
Ken[/quote]
Hi all,
Can someone here explain why my MACD looks bearish whilst Kens is more bullish - I'm confused
On the other hand, last week's bar formed an I4B pattern. Let's see which way it will go and make sure to watch for the next resistance or support.
Ken[/quote]
Hi all,
Can someone here explain why my MACD looks bearish whilst Kens is more bullish - I'm confused
- #34,060
- Jun 20, 2009 2:28pm Jun 20, 2009 2:28pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts