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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #33,941
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:04pm Jun 18, 2009 9:04pm
To break up the monotony.
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  • #33,942
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:16pm Jun 18, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting jarroo
Sorry I missed that post. The 97.00 I believe is the key level. Price may touch it and run down. A break of the 97.00 then retrace or retest may be the way I play it.
Cheers for that, i moved my sr to 97 (in retrospect seemed a bit silly to have it 10 pips below a round number heh).

I think I found an I19B on the euraud chart (closed an hour ago, second most recent bar). The current bar has stayed within its range for its first hour and missed breaking the top by about 5 pips.

The overall trend is down with some insane fib confluences around 1.748. So the bar can either break up and reverse around there (also resistance at 1.745) or it can break down and find first resistance at the previous bar low and then at 1.73 and then 1.726 and has very large chance of making a new low in the near future.

There is a 50 fib from the most recent swing low to swing high, which is counter trend. That is the main reason we could see a re test of the resistance and then another move down

Thoughts anyone? I have no trades set on this atm but just looked interesting
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  • #33,943
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:32pm Jun 18, 2009 9:32pm
nice clock.

nice new avatar there buddy.

jim

Quoting clockwork71
To break up the monotony.
  • #33,944
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:32pm Jun 18, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting tormo
hi everyone,

Any advise or personal experiences in this matter?

Thank you in advance

tormo
Good Lord, I can't say much about any credit scheme, but all I can tell you is please, please, please don't do this, I got shiver to the spine when I read your post...

I've gone through something like this in my early days of trading, where I've gone through a demo phase for like 4 months profitably and then head straight to the loan scheme... the result was today I've lost everything I ever own and my lifesavings and have to start from worst than scratch, dirt poor, and with debts still, the last 3 years of it felt like a lifetime, I've lost my car, my job, and has been kicked out from my rented house... from that experience and from what I've learned here,

Before I ever do any borrowing, I'd say I'd give myself at least 2-3 years learning the method that suits me best, to the point where I can always be sure that I'll do what I plan to do with my trades, and confident enough not to hear the outside noise...

Trading for living might be the hardest easy money you'll ever stumble upon, but it calls for a lot of sacrifice, please follow Jim's requirements at the first post, and please read and re-read and re-read everything that mike said, we don't have to go through hell to learn this business, so when you're not in one, why put yourself through it?

I believe everything will come naturally.

Just my 2 cents from a concerned fellow newbie, your life is always your choice.

Sincerely.

Marcel.
  • #33,945
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:33pm Jun 18, 2009 9:33pm
welcome h,

jim

Quoting holyshock
New comer. Studying here.
  • #33,946
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:38pm Jun 18, 2009 9:38pm
very well said mike.

i have more than several emails in my posession from people that blew fortunes trading borrowed money from family members and friends.

a couple of those emails were very much suicidal in nature.

borrowing money to trade with is lunacy of the highest order imho.

jim



Quoting mbqb11
This is what scares me the most about trading and spreadsheets. The what could be seems great always. I am not going to give financial advice, but you are very young and your focus should not be on borrowing money, just learn to trade right as you are doing. Put a few bucks away while you can. Believe me I can very much relate to everything you posted. My school was 40k a year, and I have a lot of loans to pay back still. Having a huge account is not possible for me at the current point in my life. I also have my own LLC for outside trading so I...
  • #33,947
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:54pm Jun 18, 2009 9:54pm
Quoting clockwork71
To break up the monotony.
I like this one.
nice chart Chris. more.
  • #33,948
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:02pm Jun 18, 2009 10:02pm
Hi tormo,

I don't post very often here, but felt concerned enough after your post. Pls do not trade on borrowed money no matter how attractive it appears on paper.

The fact is that real life trading and demo trading are two very different things; in the former, emotions will always be involved. And if you're young, handling the pressures of school, having to repay study loans AND borrowed money loans, imagine the kind of stress that would add to your trading. With the compulsion to make money, there'll always be a certain degree of "I MUST make money", which more often than not leads to loss. It is a matter of psychology. And paper plans do not plot the nuances of psychology.

I know it sounds as though we're all being wet blankets here, but the fact is that I've seen many folks in my own country who were trading on margin, and who went bankrupt in the equities crash of last year. Counselled quite a few desperate folks who contacted me privately because of their debts, and yes, as James said, some were pretty desperate and near suicidal in tone: couldn't tell their families, debts mounting, and nowhere to turn to.

I'll admit I do own a margin account myself (for equities), but this is after 8 years of real trading experience, as well as running a pretty successful trading blog in my own country. Even then, when markets crash, the pressure can be enormous. And all I can say is, it's simply not worth it.

What I can think of as a better suggestion:
Get a part time job. When you've saved about US$2,500, you can open a mini account. With this amount, it allows for a decent 50 pip stop loss (adjust according to your time frame), and 50 trades consecutive drawdown before an acct is wiped out. Assuming you go for risk/reward of at least 1: 2, and practice proper discipline, the account should last for a long while as you are learning.

Remember, the first aim is consistency, not large profits. Once you're consistent (ie, at least 6 mths to a year), it's simply a matter of scaling up; by then, your profits should ideally be paying for your account. No need to touch borrowed money at all.

Hope this helps. Cheers,

elfie

btw: happy belated birthday, thread!
  • #33,949
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:05pm Jun 18, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting Tipers
I think he's refering to the euro dollar : )
LOL. Anyway, 1.40 seemed a nice technical trade though I do get the sense that that trendline will be re-tested.

Chaos, is that you over there on the other side of the train? Is that the AUDJPY train ahead of us?
  • #33,950
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:18pm Jun 18, 2009 10:18pm
Quote
I don't post very often here, but felt concerned enough after your post.

elfinchilde,
good advice elfie.
maybe u could post more too.
  • #33,951
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:23pm Jun 18, 2009 10:23pm
Alexandra,
i haven't traded jpy crosses for awhile. (i think i traded $jpy once , last week or so)
lately, sticking with eu & gu.
on demo, i have been trading the majors & crosses.

always stay inside the train, don't do anything nasty. lol




KissFan,
finished hitting the sack... already? lol
or, probably u cant's sleep, kept thinking of the charts.
  • #33,952
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:23pm Jun 18, 2009 10:23pm
well said elf...thanks.

jim

Quoting elfinchilde
Hi tormo,

I don't post very often here, but felt concerned enough after your post. Pls do not trade on borrowed money no matter how attractive it appears on paper.

The fact is that real life trading and demo trading are two very different things; in the former, emotions will always be involved. And if you're young, handling the pressures of school, having to repay study loans AND borrowed money loans, imagine the kind of stress that would add to your trading. With the compulsion to make money, there'll always be a certain degree of "I...
  • #33,953
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:03pm Jun 18, 2009 11:03pm
I've been wanting to post my preffered charts for today...

the USDJPY 2 Day PB and EURGBP bearish PB

USDJPY
First to talk about is the USDJPY 2 Day PB, on my fxopen feed it has a good close and open, while IBFX demo feed shows a merely bullish 2 day bar. but we can also play this as an inside bar, which if we did, would trigger a trade earlier but not always a high probability of a hard break, another confluence is the 61.8 fib level from the last swing low.

The big picture of USDJPY shows a wedge forming and the 2 day pin formed off an ascending trendline, while the best case scenario would be to reach the upper descending trendline, I tend to prepare for the worst which is it will hit the 97.00 minor PPZ and retraced a little to hit entry for a BE trade, which in my (little) experience, USDJPY tend to retrace alot post-break momentum.

The reasons not to take the trade or reconsider is of course the 97.00 level, and if you put the 150 EMA, it is right above our entry, and also, the last day's close wasn't above 97, which would be not very good IMO, and I can't really see a clear strong PPZ on the low of the pin which again IMO not preffered.

Still, I'd place a buy stop order at the high of the pin plus 10 pips plus spread, with an expected scenario of price reaching at least 97.04 before it retraces back to the entry, or worse, negating the PB, I'll set the TP for the first half at 97.02 and move the second half to BE, both stops are will be at 40-50 pips tight.

EURGBP
The EURGBP Trendy Bearish PB is located in a sweet spot with a high barely touching a descending trendline back from March, in confluence with a 38.2 fib from the last swing high and got rejected by the 0.86 Weekly PPZ, just look at the support and resistance there back from 2008.

Reasons not to take it... was because it's not the best swing high we can find to play a bearish PA, and also, the close isn't as great as expected, if it were to close below 0.85, then the play would be more preffered in my criteria.

Pending order will be set at 0.8476 after 10 pips and spread from the PB low, and the first target is for price to reach 0.8450-60 before retracing to entry or negating the pin, SL is 30 pips, and first half will be taken at 0.8455, and the second will be moved to BE.

I'm currently demoing the small stop, hard break, Jarroo style, I've backtested a few months of data, and I'd like to forward test them now.

Any comment is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Marcel.
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  • #33,954
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:10pm Jun 18, 2009 11:10pm
Jim, I have heard you comment on several occasions that you spell words badly. Here's a little note my wife received via email.

Only "Great Minds" can read this:

fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht
oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! if you can raed tihs forwrad it

So perhaps misspellings are not so bad after all. Keep up the good work!

Oh and sell the Euro at 1.4096-1.4109!!!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #33,955
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:14pm Jun 18, 2009 11:14pm
thanks.

ive seen that once before and it really is amazing isnt it?

i let my 11 year old read it and he was shocked. lol

jim

Quoting Iron-man
Jim, I have heard you comment on several occasions that you spell words badly. Here's a little note my wife received via email.

Only "Great Minds" can read this:

fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht
oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be...
  • #33,956
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:16pm Jun 18, 2009 11:16pm
Quoting Iron-man
Jim, I have heard you comment on several occasions that you spell words badly. Here's a little note my wife received via email.

Only "Great Minds" can read this:

fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht
oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be...
Can you raed the chrat?
  • #33,957
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:19pm Jun 18, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting wwtravel
I have pending orders on these two pairs based on daily pinbars.
Any thoughts?
There is a the 365EMA at the bottom around 0.8470. Not much area for this pinbar to run.. However if it does break the 365, there is alot of room to run.
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  • #33,958
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:23pm Jun 18, 2009 11:23pm
Quoting Alexandra
Can you raed the chrat?
It depends on the day and who you ask, LOL
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #33,959
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:27pm Jun 18, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting Jduester
The best way to find out if you are right or wrong (and hence, learn) is to post it in this thread. If you go through my early posts, this is how I started. I often got gently shot down on setups I thought were great but the seniors would explain why they wouldn't trade it... or vice versa (I didn't like it, and they did)...

Josh
Sometimes I do feel nervous / inadequate when posting I feel I am not at the same calibre as the J16 old timers; and perhaps wasting valuable thread energy. Thanks for saying this Josh, it is indeed welcoming for a newcomer to this thread.
non si dimentichi mai
  • #33,960
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:32pm Jun 18, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting jarroo
2 Day PB on the Usd/Jpy. The size could be bigger and a bit of traffic in front of it. "This is Critical" is in full play on this one.


"James16:

THIS IS CRITICAL.

WE MUST LEARN TO:

Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.

if we know its there, we have several choices.

1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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