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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #33,881
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:12am Jun 18, 2009 11:12am
Quoting raczekfx
Here you go.

....

Now, that I'm out, just watch the cable fall ..
.
If you can't cry... you got a laugh....
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  • #33,882
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:16am Jun 18, 2009 11:16am
Quoting Billy73
Nice pin bar forming on Eur/Gbp on the daily, i see some of u are in on the 4 hr, might be worth setting an entry order after the bar closes ?
Watching that to, but I'm not to happy selling at swing low. But its downtrend overall. We'll need to wait how the bar closes.
  • #33,883
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:18am Jun 18, 2009 11:18am
Quoting raczekfx
If you can't cry... you got a laugh....
Figures doesn't it? New York session is crazy . . .
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #33,884
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:20am Jun 18, 2009 11:20am
Quoting squeezy
1st silly question J, hw many pips below the pin did u use
i used 10, but it looked kind of far from the pin and about 10 pip or so from 1st trouble area
i ended closing 1st half for 7pips or so, moved sl to -33 pips away....now at be after convincingly breaking 1st trouble area....sure u took 30 pips on the 1st half....thinking of holding this trade based on the pin forming on the daily...
wat do u think
still in usdcad wit drawdown, didnt reach my 30 pips tp on 1st half....reduced my risk to right eye area, waitng to see hw the bar closes
Generally I will use 8 to 10 on the Daily, 4 to 6 on the 4 hour. Depends on the setup, traffic, etc. Looks like you managed it great squeezy.

Taking 30 pips off the first momentum break is not a hard and fast rule that I follow. The same with my 30 to 40 pip stop loss. I've taken a -2pip loss when I saw Price not acting like it suppose to after a break. The more you practise the easier it becomes. And most importantly, the higher the quality of the setup (A++) it becomes way easier.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #33,885
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:09pm Jun 18, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting jarroo
Generally I will use 8 to 10 on the Daily, 4 to 6 on the 4 hour. Depends on the setup, traffic, etc. Looks like you managed it great squeezy.

Taking 30 pips off the first momentum break is not a hard and fast rule that I follow. The same with my 30 to 40 pip stop loss. I've taken a -2pip loss when I saw Price not acting like it suppose to after a break. The more you practise the easier it becomes. And most importantly, the higher the quality of the setup (A++) it becomes way easier.

Jim
thnx jarroo
still need to do more work on my trade mgt though....highly important.....
ah! i see , more practice for me then
cheers J
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #33,886
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:29pm Jun 18, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting dmc
Jaroo,

I also took this, it was hard for me to take to because it was sub A+, but I did the same thing/ managed it carefully & put stups to BE after 20 pips. Got stopped out but wanted to be in in case it ran down.

I need to be more careful with these but knowing this material really puts you in the position of knowing what price will most liekly do it is great!
The way Jarroo, Squeezy, DMC and maybe others managed this USD/CAD fascinates me. As you know, I trade from a standpoint that I won't touch an order once it's filled (90% of the time anyway).
You guys managed this trade so well... 1. You watched the break and entry of the trade. 2. You noticed that we didn't have a hard break. 3. At the first opportunity, you moved your stop and/or took some profit to reduce/eliminate risk, while giving the trade a chance to prove itself worthy.

I'm impressed with the discipline in you guys to do this. I wouldn't be able to do that (trade with discretion and discipline)...

Anyway, well done. And of course, another trade is right around the corner

Josh
  • #33,887
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:43pm Jun 18, 2009 12:43pm
What happens if you compress a balloon too much? lol
A break in this level, would be a 'No brainer trade'
Quoting raczekfx
.

since I still see that ship tanking in the near future (perhaps even tonight....)
Onto the next one...

.
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #33,888
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:52pm Jun 18, 2009 12:52pm
Ready to fall?
give me a PA
thoughts?
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #33,889
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:17pm Jun 18, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting ikki
Ready to fall?
give me a PA
thoughts?
Hi Ikki -

I do not have that pair - but how does the daily look? Up, Down, sideways? Could you post up a chart? Love to see it.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #33,890
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:19pm Jun 18, 2009 1:19pm
I had an order placed on the USD/CAD, had breakeven EA set for 20 pips. Around 12 AM EST we had a small break of the pin that coincided with a big run on oil (which is playing around on the daily 365 EMA), but they both quickly retraced. 3 AM comes and the europe markets open, the canadian dollar dives sharply but oil is heading up. That was enough for me to pull the order on an already suspect pin, They both did eventually head down at 16:00 and I would've been covered by the breakeven but it was interesting to watch.
  • #33,891
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:27pm Jun 18, 2009 1:27pm
Of course,

Quoting StoragePro
Hi Ikki -

I do not have that pair - but how does the daily look? Up, Down, sideways? Could you post up a chart? Love to see it.
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #33,892
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:37pm Jun 18, 2009 1:37pm
Thanks for the compliment but defintely dont sell your self short here. I have only been trading James 16 live for 4 months, and I know for a fact you know the material better than me from some of your posts. All it takes is practice you know that! And you are right another trade is right around the corner!

Quoting Jduester
The way Jarroo, Squeezy, DMC and maybe others managed this USD/CAD fascinates me. As you know, I trade from a standpoint that I won't touch an order once it's filled (90% of the time anyway).
You guys managed this trade so well... 1. You watched the break and entry of the trade. 2. You noticed that we didn't have a hard break. 3. At the first opportunity, you moved your stop and/or took some profit to reduce/eliminate risk, while giving the trade a chance to prove itself worthy.

I'm impressed with the discipline in you guys to do this. I...
  • #33,893
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:42pm Jun 18, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting ikki
Of course,
The day is not over, and the chart is pretty limited in scope, but it looks like Bullish PB forming to me on the daily and a resumption of an upswing. Looks like North to me.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #33,894
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:09pm Jun 18, 2009 2:09pm
Quoting Jduester
Great question Jon,
You are correct on the expected R:R... I have not tested really on letting that last 1/3 just run (leaving stop at B/E)...

Let's think about it... if we change the last 1/3 to say tp at 5R... My trades so far are all coming off the daily/weekly chart....
Just one day after I posted about comparing intraday exits versus daily trade exits, we get a perfect (decent anyway) example.

You might reference the above post for details, but I pointed out that it is more feasible to let a trade run and aim for higher R:R on an intraday trade than on a daily trade because of the risk (in pips) difference.

The 4hr pinbar had a range of 42 pips. Taking this trade off the 4 hour (as many here did today), has already provided 1.5R if you wanted it.
The daily pinbar had a range of 115 pips. It would have to make new swing lows to reach 1:1.

More importantly, the 4hr bar is at a swing high and the daily bar is still sitting at/near a swing low... So, I would not advise taking the daily bar, despite the 4hr bar working so well.

It should be noted however, that intraday trades have a much lower probability of working (which I've proven to myself through backtesting). Newbies should learn dailys first for the main reason that we need to train ourselves to be picky to only trade the very best setups. Compare the differences between the 4 hour and the daily charts I've attached. the 4 hour is coming after nice move higher... at a ppz, round number, 38.2FIB, etc... daily... well, it's a nice bar at a poor location, imo. Not that it won't work out, but it isn't what we should be waiting patiently all day for our daily close, and then trade it...

I think this provides a great example for what I was talking about.

Josh
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  • #33,895
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:25pm Jun 18, 2009 2:25pm
Eur/Gbp daily pin could be good for 50pips or so, risk is much higher (IMO). Its a little tempting, but no thanks. Others will come, they always do.
  • #33,896
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:29pm Jun 18, 2009 2:29pm
i posted this early this morning. want to make sure no one missed it.

also i was poking around and found a few old posts i got a kick out of. thought i would post them also. where are the years going?

xmas day 2005

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...04&postcount=3

just a short time before the group opened

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=2





Quoting james16
A guest video has been posted to the guest material section of the site.

It is titled - Good set ups and drawdowns.

It covers the recent EUR/CAD pin bar and the varying approaches used to trade it.

Thought i would release one for the birthday celebration.

Jim
  • #33,897
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:41pm Jun 18, 2009 2:41pm
Since we've had a lot of first time posters signing in yesterday/today, I thought I'd say a few words about analyzing potential trades. The single best and most efficient way to improve your ability to recognize a good trade from a bad one is to look at a chart and see what you like and don't like about it. The best way to find out if you are right or wrong (and hence, learn) is to post it in this thread. If you go through my early posts, this is how I started. I often got gently shot down on setups I thought were great but the seniors would explain why they wouldn't trade it... or vice versa (I didn't like it, and they did)...

This is how I did/do it, but you certainly don't have to organize it this way. Some separate the bar formation and location and give pros/cons of each.

Pros:
- With the longer term trend.
- Swing low
- Round number, 155.
- PPZ from last brief pullback.

Cons:
- The nose of the pinbar doesn't extend much past the previous bar.
- The open of the pinbar is not in the top 1/3 of the pinbar.
- It faces some bar highs to break though right near the entry from early June (forgot to mark it).

Location to me is pretty good. Bar itself is nothing special.

So, what do you think? Worth a trade? Only you can decide that.

Things to consider:
- Where will you put your stop?
- Will you enter on the break or retrace?
- Will you look to move to B/E ASAP or analyze strictly off the daily chart?
- Where will you look to take 1st, 2nd, etc profit?
- Do you think 160/bar lows will be a problem?
- Have you zoomed out to see the overall pattern of the pair or other PPZ in this area?

I'm sure others can add to this list as well as the best ways to learn to spot the best setups. Reading this thread (studied as a textbook, as I say) and posting charts WITH your thoughts are two of the best. I can't conclude without mentioning that this thread is VERY kind to newbies. You can feel quite comfortable posting your thoughts because the traders that frequent this thread are not rude or condescending, but rather are here to help in any way they can. At one point, they were all newbies (even J16's 11yr old son, lol)...

Overall, some PA setups out there tonight, but nothing jumping at me...

Happy Trading,

Josh
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  • #33,898
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:14pm Jun 18, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting james16
i posted this early this morning. want to make sure no one missed it.

also i was poking around and found a few old posts i got a kick out of. thought i would post them also. where are the years going?

xmas day 2005

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...04&postcount=3

just a short time before the group opened

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=2
nutty how small this place really was and how fast time goes. You should have another kid to mark the 5 year anniversary

LOL
  • #33,899
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:18pm Jun 18, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Jduester
Since we've had a lot of first time posters signing in yesterday/today, I thought I'd say a few words about analyzing potential trades....
Nice post Jduester. Lots of good info. I would like the nose to be longer on the gbp/jpy daily pin, although it has formed off former highs and now shorter term support at 1.55. The eur/gbp daily pin (but not at a swing high) and 2 day usd/jpy pin look good to me.
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  • #33,900
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:11pm Jun 18, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting james16
i posted this early this morning. want to make sure no one missed it.

also i was poking around and found a few old posts i got a kick out of. thought i would post them also. where are the years going?

xmas day 2005

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...04&postcount=3

just a short time before the group opened

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...07&postcount=2


wow....BeauDiamond! now there's a blast from the past...lol!
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