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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #20,101
  • Edited 3:44pm Jun 17, 2009 3:31pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting yuan83
nice moves but actually just curious to ask, it seems like nobody like to post their trades when it is on the go, but instead post when its closed?

and surely someone has some losing trades which we can learn from?
See my post 20072. It was a trade I took, but backed out for a -15 pips. Not all trades are going to go as planned. The point is if they don't, get out of the trade, don't hope it will go your way. Also, if you can keep your losses small, it helps A LOT
Raymond
  • #20,102
  • Edited 6:31pm Jun 17, 2009 5:48pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting yuan83
nice moves but actually just curious to ask, it seems like nobody like to post their trades when it is on the go, but instead post when its closed?

and surely someone has some losing trades which we can learn from?
That's not true.
Welshguy's last trade was posted while it was on the go and when it went against him the next day, he showed us how he managed it so that he got out at breakeven. The trade would have gone against him big time if he had not managed it well.

ssq had a trade which went against him and he showed us how he managed it so that he got out at break even and did not lose any money.

Moreland's trade went against him and he showed us how he managed it and only lost 15 pips.

I posted where I took a 4 hr EU TC only for price to hit support after I entered. IMO managing your trade is so much more important than making good trades.
  • #20,103
  • Jun 17, 2009 6:30pm Jun 17, 2009 6:30pm
What do you guys think from attached graph.. EU is ranging on 1hr .. and crossed zero on 4hr ..

do you think is bad idea to go long....

please drop some thoughts..

shaggy
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  • #20,104
  • Jun 17, 2009 8:06pm Jun 17, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting gujjubond
What do you guys think from attached graph.. EU is ranging on 1hr .. and crossed zero on 4hr ..

do you think is bad idea to go long....

please drop some thoughts..

shaggy
Shaggy,
I wouldn't. I'm expecting the price to go up the the arrow and I'm going to look for a short if the market allows me. Right now the price is in the middle of no-man's-land. If the trend continues the market will make a lower high and the resistance line along with the 89 MA make a nice place for that to occur. It would be nice for the candle to show that turn around...like a shooting star formation. Don't forget, this is just MY plan and to let the market show you what is going to happen.
Raymond
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  • #20,105
  • Edited 9:23pm Jun 17, 2009 9:09pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting Morelands
Shaggy,
I wouldn't. I'm expecting the price to go up the the arrow and I'm going to look for a short if the market allows me. Right now the price is in the middle of no-man's-land. If the trend continues the market will make a lower high and the resistance line along with the 89 MA make a nice place for that to occur. It would be nice for the candle to show that turn around...like a shooting star formation. Don't forget, this is just MY plan and to let the market show you what is going to happen.
Raymond
sorry to ask, where is the lower high? or should I ask there is no divergence right? I will say a move to the downside seems probable, maybe to 21MA, anw there is a bearish div on h1

however, it seems on D1, the trend is up. not a good sign
  • #20,106
  • Jun 17, 2009 9:21pm Jun 17, 2009 9:21pm
Quoting Morelands
Shaggy,
I wouldn't. I'm expecting the price to go up the the arrow and I'm going to look for a short if the market allows me. Right now the price is in the middle of no-man's-land. If the trend continues the market will make a lower high and the resistance line along with the 89 MA make a nice place for that to occur. It would be nice for the candle to show that turn around...like a shooting star formation. Don't forget, this is just MY plan and to let the market show you what is going to happen.
Raymond

Thanks Morelands ,,

you are right..it's no man land .. if price close above 38.2 fib line then i might go long for 89 ema ..
  • #20,107
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:50am Jun 18, 2009 7:50am
Hi, folks.

Just trying to get my mind around this system and jumped to the video, which I must say, was really refreshing for me as an Ex Pat from near Manchester to hear Welsh guy's video explanation of this system.

He doesn't sound Welsh anymore! Lol

Right, I am back off to the pdf files and more video study.

Thanks again Welsh guy and indeed Phil for making and explaining this system. Always nice to see people helping people.

Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #20,108
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:18pm Jun 18, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting Morelands
Shaggy,
I wouldn't. I'm expecting the price to go up the the arrow and I'm going to look for a short if the market allows me. Right now the price is in the middle of no-man's-land. If the trend continues the market will make a lower high and the resistance line along with the 89 MA make a nice place for that to occur. It would be nice for the candle to show that turn around...like a shooting star formation. Don't forget, this is just MY plan and to let the market show you what is going to happen.
Raymond
Just as you predicted Morelands. I am expecting it to go down to the 200 SMA again.
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  • #20,109
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:41pm Jun 18, 2009 7:41pm
This is where we are on the daily chart - zig zag up and then down within the channel.
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  • #20,110
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:51pm Jun 18, 2009 7:51pm
GU is stuck in a range with all moving averages converging. Better to wait for a break out of the range - unless you are good at trading ranges.
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  • #20,111
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:04pm Jun 18, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting yuan83
sorry to ask, where is the lower high? or should I ask there is no divergence right? I will say a move to the downside seems probable, maybe to 21MA, anw there is a bearish div on h1

however, it seems on D1, the trend is up. not a good sign
I think he meant a lower high on the resistance line.
  • #20,112
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:06pm Jun 18, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Evening all,

I have just uploaded the new lesson on money management.

please comment / ask questions - hopefully this video answers most of your questions

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPc5qm9B5LA

Cheers WG
Thanks WG. Good lesson.
  • #20,113
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:40pm Jun 18, 2009 8:40pm
Hello everyone,

I have been here off and on for quite a while. I first checked this thread out in 2007 and liked what I saw. However, at the time I decided to go in a different direction with my trading. It's been a bumpy ride with many twists and turns, so I found my way back here. Since returning, I have been reading, lurking and watching Welshguy's videos, as well as looking back over the system again and listening to Phillip's mp3s. I feel that this system fits my trading personality well and I have been successful in testing it over the last month.

The one thing that has been a struggle for me over my trading "career" (attemped career) is the idea of trading too big for the size of my account and I think I have learned that lesson very well at this point. Another thing that is a struggle for almost all beginning traders is money management. I would like to address anyone who is new to this forum and say that THIS above all is the key to being a successful trader. With this being said, make sure to check out Welshguy's video lessons and especially his latest one on money management. It is well done and I am grateful for his efforts on here and the time he has put in producing his videos.

I will try to begin posting here so as to contribute to the thread and also so that I may learn to master this by hearing your feedback on my take on this.

Thanks for your time and good trading.
  • #20,114
  • Edited 9:33pm Jun 18, 2009 9:22pm | Edited 9:33pm
Just trying to get my mind around this.

Do we have a possible long break at 96.67 starting on the USD/JPY H1?

Flag tail appears to be forming at the H4 38.2 fibo, hugging the 8 EMA.

Tail flustering in the wind a bit! Lol
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #20,115
  • Edited 10:39pm Jun 18, 2009 9:40pm | Edited 10:39pm
Just want to back up what swingdjpj said and say thanks to the people with great posts. They don't realize just how helpful this kind of forum and discussion is when starting out in FX. Like swingdjpj, I find the 4Hr strategy seems to suit my style and personality better than any other system I have reviewed. Still paper trading at this time and seems like I learn something new everyday in this forum and on the youtube videos welchguy does. I have also found that combining bits and pieces from multiple strategies allows for greater trading options and increased probability without making things too complicated and stressfull for trading (Big plus for me.) On the EUR/USD note, it seems on the 4Hr we have lost the rythm and have a mess of tangled MA's as opposed to the previous run where we had a nice rythm. Just my two PIPs worth. Anyway, thanx again to all.
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  • #20,116
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:00pm Jun 18, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting SpyderFX
On the EUR/USD note, it seems on the 4Hr we have lost the rythm and have a mess of tangled MA's as opposed to the previous run where we nice rythm. Just my two PIPs worth. Anyway, thanx again to all.
That is what I've been thinking about the EURUSD. In fact, all of the majors are in a similar funk. This is also why I would be hesitant in taking a long in the USDJPY as Rastaman is suggesting. I don't like to get involved when the 89 and 200 are pinching together and the price is between. I like to wait until we get out from between them and then get some kind of retest. I think the R/R is better when you don't have a major MA right above the position.

Just my 2 pips
  • #20,117
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:25pm Jun 18, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting swingdjpj
That is what I've been thinking about the EURUSD. In fact, all of the majors are in a similar funk. This is also why I would be hesitant in taking a long in the USDJPY as Rastaman is suggesting. I don't like to get involved when the 89 and 200 are pinching together and the price is between. I like to wait until we get out from between them and then get some kind of retest. I think the R/R is better when you don't have a major MA right above the position.

Just my 2 pips

Thanks for the input swing, appreciated.

The 21 EMA just broke the 55 EMA on the H1 so, I will leave the buy stop order on with the SL 3 pips below the Daily 50 fibo and just see how it works out. I just want to make any errors in my analysis of the system as early as possible.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #20,118
  • Edited 11:56pm Jun 18, 2009 11:39pm | Edited 11:56pm
Took swings advice and removed the order, just going to watch it till it pops.

H4 38.2 is being tested right now with 21 mins left of H1 candle.

Actually, I think I misplaced the Daily fibo and the 38.2 on the H4 actually coincides with the Daily 50 fibo, so it appears even more likely to pop at the H4 38.2.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #20,119
  • Edited 4:06am Jun 19, 2009 12:52am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting swingdjpj
That is what I've been thinking about the EURUSD. In fact, all of the majors are in a similar funk. This is also why I would be hesitant in taking a long in the USDJPY as Rastaman is suggesting. I don't like to get involved when the 89 and 200 are pinching together and the price is between. I like to wait until we get out from between them and then get some kind of retest. I think the R/R is better when you don't have a major MA right above the position.

Just my 2 pips
Great to see your posts. Yes, like Phil said, the speed is very slow when the price gets between the 89 and 200.
So, maybe I will take today off since it is Friday too. Will wait until the 8 EMA takes control again.
  • #20,120
  • Jun 19, 2009 1:39am Jun 19, 2009 1:39am
USD/JPY just popped the 38.2 fibo.
I take it that this is the signal and we wait for the next candle to confirm our entry, probably at the Daily 61.8 fibo?

Probably going to stall at the H4 50 fibo and may retrace before it tests the daily 61.8.

Very interesting system.
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Starting to see instead of just looking.
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