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Yet another 50 SMA trading strategy

  • #181
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:13am Jun 6, 2009 2:13am
Quoting melpheos
If i'd knew i would allready be a millionaire

But you have a good point. The way i trade it is low win rate ratio but i catch allmost every big move so my risk/reward is very high but it is possible that taking only a trade after a breakout and a retracement can increase the win/rate ratio without decreasing too much the risk/reward ratio.

Only backtest over a long period of time can tell you that.

melpheos.........

how do you trail your stops ? behind high/low on 15min chart too ?
  • #182
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:44am Jun 6, 2009 2:44am
Quoting findcount
melpheos.........

how do you trail your stops ? behind high/low on 15min chart too ?
This is the hard part. On large move it is a good idea to switch to the next higher TF and trail on the SMA but this can be very frustrating because you will see your profit go away very often.

The best way might be to trail on the fractal a few time (2-3) and then trail on the SMA when it reaches your last stop.

This is a point i have to work on (like everyone)
  • #183
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:06am Jun 6, 2009 9:06am
Quoting findcount
melpheos.........

how do you trail your stops ? behind high/low on 15min chart too ?
I know the question was not for me, but I'm wandering here, and would like to see melpheos opinion too....

Since we are trading off 15M charts, I consider it a short-therm system. So, my goal is:

1. Optimal entry point (which I mentioned earlier... I don't take those wider fractals)

2. Minimum risk -> tight SL, (explananation on previous item) AND take some money off the table as soon as I can. For that I close 2/3 of my position when the trade reaches 1:1 -> Now I got a "free trade" , in fact, if my SL is hit, I have some moeney already in the pocket.

3. Minimum market exposure. I set my manual trailing stop at more distant of the last 2 fractals (avoid some whipsaws, and takes me off the trade when price stalls or reverse....)

With this approach, even in thos crazy yo-yo days, is not that hard to take the 1:1 hit.... I you got a run, Ok, you trail, if you got a reverse, at least you got some in the pocket.....

What do you guys think about it???

Cheers!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #184
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:00pm Jun 6, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting HouseTrader
I know the question was not for me, but I'm wandering here, and would like to see melpheos opinion too....

Since we are trading off 15M charts, I consider it a short-therm system. So, my goal is:

1. Optimal entry point (which I mentioned earlier... I don't take those wider fractals)

2. Minimum risk -> tight SL, (explananation on previous item) AND take some money off the table as soon as I can. For that I close 2/3 of my position when the trade reaches 1:1 -> Now I got a...
I'd like to use the take partial profit but often i dont have the time to put the partial TP order (as with Oanda it's easy to set up because they do not allow hedging)
  • #185
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:20pm Jun 12, 2009 2:20pm
How you guys did on this startegy last 2 days. Yesterday i got ripped off because of all the whipsaws in the yen pairs.

Looks like my thinking of taking a breakout after 6-7 pips straight maynot work that great. May be have to wait for a pullback after the breakout and take the trade?

What do you all think?
  • #186
  • Edited 2:57pm Jun 12, 2009 2:37pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting AndsX
How you guys did on this startegy last 2 days. Yesterday i got ripped off because of all the whipsaws in the yen pairs.

Looks like my thinking of taking a breakout after 6-7 pips straight maynot work that great. May be have to wait for a pullback after the breakout and take the trade?

What do you all think?
All you have to do i accept the loss. At a moment or another there will be a breakout but it's true this can be frustrating. Also true that if you take multiple trade on correlated pair you can have some serious DD...

When you see the same setup on correlated pair, it's better to look on only one of the pair and forget about the other untill the next day.

On this trade, 0.75% loss, 1.75% gain (i rounded up) The SL was a trailing stop so the trade could have been better if i had time to manage it.

And i got a 2% loss on €$ then a 4% gain on EURUSD (just check the charts, anyone could have taken it ) €$ was a TP hit.

So for the day, i'm up 3% good day ^^
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #187
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:06pm Jun 12, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting melpheos
All you have to do i accept the loss. At a moment or another there will be a breakout but it's true this can be frustrating. Also true that if you take multiple trade on correlated pair you can have some serious DD...

When you see the same setup on correlated pair, it's better to look on only one of the pair and forget about the other untill the next day.

On this trade, 0.75% loss, 1.75% gain (i rounded up) The SL was a trailing stop so the trade could have been better if i had time to manage it.

And i got a 2% loss on €$ then a 4% gain on EURUSD...
Looks like it's just me messed up. Lot of things went wrong i guess. Correlated pairs, may be placing the SL too close
  • #188
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:44pm Jun 12, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting AndsX
Looks like it's just me messed up. Lot of things went wrong i guess. Correlated pairs, may be placing the SL too close
Post your charts and i'll tell you (maybe it was just supposed to happen)
  • #189
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:22pm Jun 12, 2009 9:22pm
I got pictures for 6 losing trades. I totally lost around 9 though the last 3 i closed on panic on losing more.

Here are the pictures
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  • #190
  • Jun 13, 2009 6:02am Jun 13, 2009 6:02am
This is what should have happened

I forgot to put the trade that would have made up the losses but maybe you do not trade at this time

You use very agressive SL. You should try to focus more on obvious fractal resistance zone or obvious swing
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EJLoser2.gif Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GULoser1.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #191
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:10pm Jun 13, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting melpheos
This is what should have happened

I forgot to put the trade that would have made up the losses but maybe you do not trade at this time

You use very agressive SL. You should try to focus more on obvious fractal resistance zone or obvious swing
thanks melpheos. I'll widen my SL. But with a larger SL R:R could be a an issue right?

I only trade the london time. (1EST - 6EST)
  • #192
  • Jun 13, 2009 5:03pm Jun 13, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting AndsX
thanks melpheos. I'll widen my SL. But with a larger SL R:R could be a an issue right?

I only trade the london time. (1EST - 6EST)
Of course but you should have better win rate ratio. It's all a question of balance.
  • #193
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:09pm Jun 17, 2009 3:09pm
Slight edit on the rule (a bit more clearly explained but no changes)
  • #194
  • Jun 17, 2009 6:11pm Jun 17, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting melpheos
Slight edit on the rule (a bit more clearly explained but no changes)
The sidenote says : you should not take a fractal break if you missed the previous fractal break in the same direction. If you missed the trade, too bad for you. You can still use fib retracement or sexy stochastics to enter a trade you miss but do not use fractal break for this.

Why? In some cases i think it might make sense to take the fractal formed after the price break instead of the previous wave fractal
  • #195
  • Jun 18, 2009 12:37am Jun 18, 2009 12:37am
Quoting AndsX
The sidenote says : you should not take a fractal break if you missed the previous fractal break in the same direction. If you missed the trade, too bad for you. You can still use fib retracement or sexy stochastics to enter a trade you miss but do not use fractal break for this.

Why? In some cases i think it might make sense to take the fractal formed after the price break instead of the previous wave fractal
Because it greatly reduce the potential of the trade but nothing prevent you making your own test and share them here
  • #196
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:33am Jun 18, 2009 3:33am
Boxed area seems to have more losses. Do you think we should filter it or just trade through it.
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  • #197
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:39pm Jun 18, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting AndsX
Boxed area seems to have more losses. Do you think we should filter it or just trade through it.
Sorry i have no strategy to prevent those loses but i believe in my system.

Home run a few minutes ago (there is also an allmost BE trade but this is not the same strategy)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #198
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:04pm Jun 18, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting melpheos
Sorry i have no strategy to prevent those loses but i believe in my system.
Did you meant to say this system or all the system you are using together helps you to offeset the loss.

btw that was nice trade.
  • #199
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:05pm Jun 18, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting AndsX
Did you meant to say this system or all the system you are using together helps you to offeset the loss.

btw that was nice trade.
Ho yeah sorry, i mean my whole system for which this one is part of but i'm pretty sure you can trade this system alone and make money.
  • #200
  • Jun 20, 2009 5:08am Jun 20, 2009 5:08am
Quoting melpheos
Ho yeah sorry, i mean my whole system for which this one is part of but i'm pretty sure you can trade this system alone and make money.
I will try to make an EA out of this sytem, wish me luck because i suck at programmation
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