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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,981
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:26pm Apr 23, 2007 3:26pm
Quoting BeachBum
Ahhhh.....my friend cool; 'fresian' and "the bhoy' have made it sooooo easy!!!.............
Too easy. There's just no mystery left in fozzy now
  • #1,982
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:42pm Apr 23, 2007 3:42pm
I agree, I feel like an unemployed 'illusionist'.............

Quoting willf
Too easy. There's just no mystery left in fozzy now
  • #1,983
  • Apr 23, 2007 3:44pm Apr 23, 2007 3:44pm
hallo

bb thanks about your answer.
i have a problam with the ema 8, i cant drag him to the rsi window.
can you have any solution?

thanking you in advance

btfl
  • #1,984
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:12pm Apr 23, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting btfl
hallo

bb thanks about your answer.
i have a problam with the ema 8, i cant drag him to the rsi window.
can you have any solution?

thanking you in advance

btfl
Where are you trying to drag it from?

You need to drag it from the navigational panel on the left.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #1,985
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:36pm Apr 23, 2007 5:36pm
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
I finished reading the whole thread! Took quite a while, I've started demo trading fozzy and have a lot of my own testing to do, but just wanted to celebrate having caught up at last and also to say a big thank you to Fozzy, BeachBum, Willf and all the others who have provided such valuable input into this thread (a special mention to Coolshades for keeping the conversation flowing ) -TPO.
  • #1,986
  • Apr 23, 2007 9:13pm Apr 23, 2007 9:13pm
Quoting jaree
Almost 90% of the loser trades go to your direction too atleast for few pips so i was thinking will it be profitable to put 20 pips target on every cross and thats it but when i look at that from RR it doesnt look so good so i need advice from those who are trading this for long time... Do you make most of the profit on the trend change and swings or from your first lot which for most is few pips TP.
One more note on this:

In a weird way, you CAN capitalize on the small up-turns that are experienced even by a losing position in the fozzy (well, sort of). Everyone here has been talking about setting your S/L at some predetermined level - 40 pips, the extreme of the previous day's candle, X% of the ATR, etc. But what if you also set your S/L as a trailing stop?

Example:

You open a position and set a S/L with a traditional stop of 50 pips. The position initially goes up by 10 pips, but then turns against you and stops out. You have lost a full 50 pips.

But if you had set a trailing stop, the stop would have been moved upward by 10 pips before eventually turning against you. When the position closed, you would have lost 40 pips, rather than 50. Sure, this is not the same as booking a 10-pip profit, but in the long run losses averted are just as effective as gains realized and you preserve more capital than if you had set static stops.

Of course, there is no such thing as a free lunch. If you choose to employ a trailing stop, there is always the chance that the market spikes upwards (thus ratcheting up your stops) and then immediately corrects back down to its prior level (thus hitting your newly-elevated stops and closing the position, whereas you otherwise may have still been in the trade at the BE point). It all depends upon your trading style.
  • #1,987
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:35am Apr 24, 2007 3:35am
Guys

Please remember that we are trading on daily bars for this method, we cannot settle for 20, 30-------pips etc, we have to think bigger.

For that sort of targets there are numerous short term systems to trade involving lesser risks.
Regards
  • #1,988
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:13am Apr 24, 2007 8:13am
Quoting btfl
hallo

bb thanks about your answer.
i have a problam with the ema 8, i cant drag him to the rsi window.
can you have any solution?

thanking you in advance

btfl
Am having similar problems with my setup. the 8 EMA does not want to overlap the RSI, keeps wanting to go across the chart.

What am I doing wrong?

Keithf.ed
  • #1,989
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:28am Apr 24, 2007 8:28am
Gentlemen..........(ladies too, if applicable)

when you drag the MA onto the RSI window, this box pops up. You must select the option to apply the MA indicator to the "Previous Indicator's Data" to have both indicators in the same window. HTH!
Attached Image
  • #1,990
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:32am Apr 24, 2007 8:32am
Quoting Bytebodger
If you choose to employ a trailing stop, there is always the chance that the market spikes upwards (thus ratcheting up your stops) and then immediately corrects back down to its prior level (thus hitting your newly-elevated stops and closing the position, whereas you otherwise may have still been in the trade at the BE point). It all depends upon your trading style.
This is the 'chink in your armor'.............try backtesting on a 1 hour chart and see how this works out. Many Daily Fozzy trades (key word = Daily) will get stopped out when in fact they will be winners if you allow them to 'develop' over a period of time. This is why we are trading on Daily charts.
  • #1,991
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:34am Apr 24, 2007 8:34am
Quoting TPO
(a special mention to Coolshades for keeping the conversation flowing ) -TPO.
This is great way to describe our good friend "cool".........
  • #1,992
  • Apr 24, 2007 8:40am Apr 24, 2007 8:40am
Thanks BB, thank goodness for experts.

Keith
  • #1,993
  • Apr 24, 2007 9:20am Apr 24, 2007 9:20am
thanks beach.. not feeling so great today.. usdchf bombed. eurbp bombed..
oh well.. i have been there and recovered..

that pint of shandy is looking good...

Quoting BeachBum
This is great way to describe our good friend "cool".........
  • #1,994
  • Apr 24, 2007 9:31am Apr 24, 2007 9:31am
watch out for the EUR/GBP......trade it VERY cautiously! I don't like it, never have!

Quoting coolshades
thanks beach.. not feeling so great today.. usdchf bombed. eurbp bombed..
oh well.. i have been there and recovered..

that pint of shandy is looking good...
  • #1,995
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:10pm Apr 24, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting BeachBum
watch out for the EUR/GBP......trade it VERY cautiously! I don't like it, never have!
The last month or so it has been a little shit. Every time it looks like it's gonna breakout it just laughs, turns around and bites you on the ass !

Ahem, now I got that off my chest:
  • #1,996
  • Apr 24, 2007 12:19pm Apr 24, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting willf
The last month or so it has been a little shit. Every time it looks like it's gonna breakout it just laughs, turns around and bites you on the ass !

Ahem, now I got that off my chest:
If someone is determined to trade this pair with basic Fozzy, the only way it can be done successfully, IMO, is to drop down to the 1 and 4 hour charts for additional confirmation................and use fibs and candlestick patterns on the Daily. OK..........now that's off my chest!
  • #1,997
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 25, 2007 4:17am | Edited 4:18am
BB,

I think that to trade this idea profitably all you really need is just the RIS MA cross, couple that with a good R:R ratio (2:1) and smart money management (2% Risk).

The catch and yes there is a catch. This is what my testing revealed, you will only be right about 35% of the time. wrong about 48% and get no return 17%. The worst losing streak i found was 4 in a row which was not uncommon but at the end of a year i had a 50% growth of the trading account, from one pair.

I will quantify the above with the following statement.
It is for the year 2006 GDP/USD only, other pairs traded similar but not identical. If you add +/- 3% to any of the numbers your within the range. Although it didn't really make much change to the EOY result.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #1,998
  • Apr 25, 2007 11:38am Apr 25, 2007 11:38am
Quoting BeachBum
watch out for the EUR/GBP......trade it VERY cautiously! I don't like it, never have!
I give it up already...
  • #1,999
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:19pm Apr 25, 2007 4:19pm
?
  • #2,000
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:40pm Apr 25, 2007 4:40pm
This isn't really a Fozzy subject, but I have read several times in this thread where people were wondering how much retracement is exhibited by pairs on a daily basis. I completed analysis today that gives me some concrete numbers. For each pair, I first calculated the average range (day's high minus day's low). Then I determined each pair's retracement value. If the pair closed down (closing price lower than opening price), then I considered the retracement to be the day's high minus the day's opening price. If pair closed up, I considered the retracement to be the day's opening price minus the day's low. The following values were calculated based on data going back to 1998 for all of the major crosses. Some of the minor crosses only had data going back a few years.

Pair, Range, Retrace, Retrace %
USDJPY, 119, 29, 24%
EURUSD, 109, 29, 27%
GBPUSD, 137, 36, 26%
USDCHF, 154, 41, 27%
USDCAD, 103, 28, 27%
GBPJPY, 208, 53, 25%
AUDUSD, 74, 20, 27%
EURGBP, 55, 16, 29%
EURJPY, 140, 36, 26%
EURCHF, 66, 19, 29%
CHFJPY, 71, 19, 27%
GBPCHF, 204, 56, 27%
EURAUD, 142, 39, 27%
EURCAD, 128, 35, 27%
AUDCAD, 83, 24, 29%
AUDJPY, 80, 21, 26%
NZDUSD, 76, 19, 25%
AUDNZD, 100, 28, 28%
CADJPY, 90, 20, 22%



Hope this is helpful...
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