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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,292 replies

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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Quoting Naws
Anyone going to act on today's PA to get in USD short? There is a BUOB on GBPUSD on the 20 and fib 50 support
I was long GBPUSD today, on a 50% retracement of the last weekly candle, but I don't like how the daily closed (or some other USD crosses) and so I am flat GBPUSD now and waiting for some more direction/PA
Short USDJPY running still ...
Nicola
Indeed, the closes were poor, although I see the continental action today as just highly technical trading. The bump off the 1.3935 area in E/D for example was elegant, but it doesn't change my overall bias at current levels above 1.37. We could very well be looking at the novel idea of SHS consolidation as opposed to reversal.
Could someone help me out with a question. How is volume calculated in forex? I believe it must be different to how it is calculated than for stocks?
Quoting el_duende
Could someone help me out with a question. How is volume calculated in forex? I believe it must be different to how it is calculated than for stocks?
Because there is no central exchange for forex as there is in stocks, volume cannot be calculated. What you get on your MT4 charts is a sampling of your broker's volume. This differs from one broker to another and makes volume analysis on forex extremely difficult if nigh on impossible.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting elitejets
We are so finished. You need to find a new FF girlfriend ...
why? oh why
for me, the close on a buob needs to be outside the body of the previous bar......
Am getting through the thread and came across this excellent post from Blackeagle.
It is relevant now as I pulled up the chart to see what happened and he nailed it. One could still be in that long now. He posted a chart too which you should check out (again).

This pair looks to be setting up for another long to me.

Reasons:
1. Clear uptrend
2. Lower trendline support
3. Support becoming resistance - support at 76.00 horiz level
4. 50% retrace from last low and 38% from hammer at end of April.
5. Boss and Big Boss in agreement
6. Clear space above - possible resistance on weekly at 84-85 but not clearly defined

Just need to wait for PA now.

Surfer



Quoting Blackeagle
JPY pairs are showing good PA, but I like AUDJPY the most. Reasons:

1- Since Jan 2009 LH was penetrated, and daily shows HL-HH, I believe the trend is north, at the moment.
2- 67.50 SR (looks like it moved to 68 recently, but 67.50 was too obvious between 1993-2003, therefore I am still using it).
3- Trendline support
4- PA - Hammer
5- Reversed at 78.6 fibo ret. of the last upswing
6- Both Daily 50 and Boss 20 are very close to 67.50 SR
7- Very good R:R as target is 72

Now, there is always possibility that the trade may go against...
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Hi Strat and the team

I haven’t posted for a while sorting personal stuff out, but been keeping up to date with the tread.
As Strat knows one of my biggest problems is dealing with the psychology of the Daily TF and over trading. Now a few posts back I think we all agreed the best way of dealing with this is to have a solid plan and stick to it.

Well while demo trading I followed this some of the time but not all of the time, I am now trading with a micro account with tight MM as this is the only way I can prove/test myself, if I truly have the mental ability to trade full time, which is my goal for the next 12 months.

Now one month in I’m still overtrading (9 trades)but every day I am getting better in that I plan a trade and come back in half an hour or so and if it still looks good I pull the trigger. Long way to go in nailing this one, just like Aston Dan did, but I will bloody do it if it kills me.

Now with the above in mind one of the key tools of planning and understanding a trade is interpreting the boss TF (Weekly). On the two charts below we have a long term trend but also a shorter term trend lasting several weeks.

I sometimes find it hard as too which one is the more relevant for the current Daily PA to trade off? Strat would it be a good idea if at the end of the week we had a consensus of opinion (Meaning you and your leaned trainers) as to what the trend is doing in relation to the Big Boss and Boss on the most popular pairs. This would help in the leaning process of interpreting this fundamental information crucial to trading PASR.

Thanks again for your support.
Steve
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Yesterday’s regrets and tomorrows dreams are today’s opportunities
Quoting Surfer
Am getting through the thread and came across this excellent post from Blackeagle.
It is relevant now as I pulled up the chart to see what happened and he nailed it. One could still be in that long now. He posted a chart too which you should check out (again).

This pair looks to be setting up for another long to me.

Reasons:
1. Clear uptrend
2. Lower trendline support
3. Support becoming resistance - support at 76.00 horiz level
4. 50% retrace from last low and 38% from hammer at end of April.
5. Boss and Big Boss in agreement
6. Clear space...
I haven't posted for quite a while because I have been going through charts, cutting out most of the SR lines and just putting in the key levels in the Weekly and then seeing how those play out at the Daily level.

But your post Surfer got me looking again and, for what my view is worth it seems to me that your analysis is dead right. I have been watching this one 'from a distance' as it were and thinking that the Daily uptrend has been so 'text book' with its stair profile that it just couldn't go on much longer, but....

Watch for PA at the current level for a reverse indicating the next step up. The current price is above the 50 and will probably rubber-band back up above the 20 with the first TP at the 50 Fib and psycho 80.000. If it goes through there, the next TP would be 82.00 and then onwards as you point out. Well spotted.

Let's see if Strat agrees or points out a fatal flaw!

P.S. As for trading too much, I've just stopped altogether!
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hi guys been working away for three weeks now trying to catch up on all the posts I have missed
Looking at another AUD chart, it's current relationship with USD seems undecided. There is a clear double top and a move back towards the TL and current support is on the 20MA and nearly the 50 Fib. The Boss is showing a red IB but this is only mid-week so nothing much can be concluded from this at the moment. Today's candle, 3 hrs before the close in the UK is a bull but a series of LLs this week suggests that the very short term Weekly trend is down.

Watch for PA around the current support at the 0.7900 level. A break south would leave open the possibility of a move to the next S from the Weekly chart at 0.7700, althought that would mean crashing through the 50 MA and from thence to the 38% Fib (maybe).

On the other hand......a rebound from the MA and TL area might mean a move back to the level of the present DT at 0.8200

Clearly a case of 'wait and see'.
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Quoting cowboying
Hi Strat and the team

I haven’t posted for a while sorting personal stuff out, but been keeping up to date with the tread.
As Strat knows one of my biggest problems is dealing with the psychology of the Daily TF and over trading. Now a few posts back I think we all agreed the best way of dealing with this is to have a solid plan and stick to it.

[font=Calibri][size=3]Well while demo trading I followed this some of the time but not all...
Steve, I'll do a summary of all the BOSSES on my pairs - will that be OK?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting Lotuselanman
I haven't posted for quite a while because I have been going through charts, cutting out most of the SR lines and just putting in the key levels in the Weekly and then seeing how those play out at the Daily level.

But your post Surfer got me looking again and, for what my view is worth it seems to me that your analysis is dead right....
Remember what Dr. Joe told me?

It keeps on going up 'till it stops going up.

As long as it keeps putting in HLs and HHs - there is only one direction to trade.

No flaws Christopher - your analysis and thinking is sound.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting Lotuselanman
Looking at another AUD chart, it's current relationship with USD seems undecided....
Christopher,

The double top looks like its going to be consolidation. This should be expected when there seems to be confusion as to what the USD sentiment really is. Plus, we are going through down cycles on both the Worker and Boss and she doesn't want to go down - this is telling us something.

The Worker has held the 0.7800 support and TL and until she breaks the previous swing low at 0.7450, she is still in an uptrend.

The Weekly is also in consolidation so no help there.

Most of the pairs are in a "let the market show us the way" mode as they sit at their respective S&R.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Quoting strat
Drawing TLs is VERY subjective, you can draw them any which way to suit your purpose (even conjure up a trade that isn't there - NOT RECOMMENDED!)

My use of TLs is multi purpose, the most of which is to identify long term support, immediate support and dynamic support and a visible way to SEE accurate momentum (as opposed to wiggly lines) and identify exits.

I use THE CLOSE (and OPEN) in everything I do, I don't care about the broker over runs or the MM games that give tails and wicks - I am in to BODIES - beautiful, shapely, curved bodies with...
I am sure there are other posts about this further on in the thread. This is the present (time) for me however.
This post would definitely be one of the best I have read anywhere.
Haven't read a trading book that lays this out so well.

It makes perfect sense but I take it we should not even try to think like this yet? Hammers and shooting stars right?
I will try to think like this even though I won't be trading it for now.

I have copied all posts that I consider valuable into a Word doc. It is about 80 pages long so far. I was going to offer to share it but strongly believe everyone should do this on their own. Lance's work is fantastic as we all know but each of us will find different posts that resonate with us.

The Word doc is the 'wheat' although in this thread there is not much 'chaff'.

I have just cut and paste. It is not pretty but I would hate to lose it as I will keep re-reading these posts rather than read the whole thread again.

Right.....off to find the next gold nugget.

Surfer
This is a continuation of my thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
This thread has now moved to:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post2812906
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
I am sure there are other posts about this further on in the thread. This is the present (time) for me however.
This post would definitely be one of the best I have read anywhere.
Haven't read a trading book that lays this out so well.

It makes perfect sense but I take it we should not even try to think like this yet? Hammers and shooting stars right?
I will try to think like this even though I won't be trading it for now.

I have copied all posts that I consider valuable into a Word doc. It is about 80 pages long so far. I was going to offer to share it but strongly believe everyone should do this on their own. Lance's work is fantastic as we all know but each of us will find different posts that resonate with us.

The Word doc is the 'wheat' although in this thread there is not much 'chaff'.

I have just cut and paste. It is not pretty but I would hate to lose it as I will keep re-reading these posts rather than read the whole thread again.

Right.....off to find the next gold nugget.

Surfer
Right on, Beach Boy, start with Hammers and Shooting Stars.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Looks like many pairs finding support at their TLs ready for their next move in the direction of the trend. Finally, our friend is back!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
Hi all,

USDCAD is shaping up today to confirm yesterday as a swing high while the weekly is shaping up to a SS. The recent downtrend which Nicola NAILED was firmly rejected at 1.0800 so are we going to see a retest.

There's also some support at 1.1020...thoughts?

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