Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 411 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #8,201
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:33am Jun 16, 2009 1:33am
Posted in epilogue thread around 11:00 PM NY time that I went LONG at 1.3805 on a Buy Stop. Currently something like 50-pip in profit. Don't have time to elaborate at the moment so I may give details into my thought process later. Ha, this posting in two threads means one usually gets ignored at any one point in time.
  • #8,202
  • Jun 16, 2009 1:58am Jun 16, 2009 1:58am
I need to confess, that I've had a bad case of "analysis paralysis" lately. I've been SOOOOO patient that I absolutely NEED price to do what I expect to justify entering a trade.

Problem is...price does what it wants, and it doesn't consult me first.

As much as I want to go long at 1.3600, I'll take a pot-shot at 1.38, keep the stops tight, and see what happens. I don't want to wait 3 weeks for price to hit a location I'm "thinking about". If it keeps falling, my analysis is worthless.

So, I'm trading what I see, and if "what I think" materializes, I'll take it too.

happy trading.
  • #8,203
  • Jun 16, 2009 2:50am Jun 16, 2009 2:50am
I went long at 1.3775, based on some notions: (risky, because against main trend)

A) I have no idea what price is going to do, but PA in lower TF tells me buy.

B) It has some likelihood of bouncing off of fibs and resistance.

C) TSL is 50

D) I exit when PA seems to getting weaker for buy or TSL50 is hit.

Stop was/is tight, SL50.
Demo trade...

much pips to everybody, AT
  • #8,204
  • Jun 16, 2009 3:01am Jun 16, 2009 3:01am
Quoting at120
I went long at 1.3775
Exact price and position that I missed.
  • #8,205
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:01am Jun 16, 2009 5:01am
Quoting fxtrader29
I an in long at 3820
My long position is in green. It fell while I was asleep but my SL held. I am moving the SL to BE. I am stacking up the green on this one.
  • #8,206
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:10am Jun 16, 2009 5:10am
Quoting Jpnek
Actually, I think I got in after you did...!. Risky trade, though. PA seems to be stuck around .3775 and Jacko is warning about an oversold condition. I better watch this closely...

.
He was right, the E/U turned at 3747.
  • #8,207
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:17am Jun 16, 2009 5:17am
My LONG position is 68 pips in the green and I've locked in 50 pips of profit. This means it's 18 pips above my SL and seems to be pulling back. We have several news on the USD today so I hope I can avoid being stopped out at least before the news hit.

As for my rational for taking this trade, Jacko had warned of an oversold market. It wasn't hard to believe him when you looked at a 4H chart and saw that this thing never had a bullish candle since last Friday. It was all down from there. Then I saw that it had trouble with the 38% weekly fib around 1.3790. It bounced off this fib. This same area also serves as the 61.8% fib on the daily from 1.3423 on May 18th to 1.4337 on the 3rd of June. Admittedly, this was still a risky trade, especially considering I didn't notice any confirmed S+R in the area where I took the trade. I knew it was risky so I managed with a tight stop. The plan is to hope it survives the news and monitor closely if it gets to around 1.3950. If it gets that far I'm moving my stop to 1.3900.
  • #8,208
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:25am Jun 16, 2009 5:25am
Just placed a pending sell @ 1.3830, based on the fact that current 4h bar is a pin on my chart. Anyone else thinking same?
  • #8,209
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:33am Jun 16, 2009 5:33am
Quoting jcalow
Just placed a pending sell @ 1.3830, based on the fact that current 4h bar is a pin on my chart. Anyone else thinking same?
The 4H on my chart ends 1.5 hours from now at 8:00 AM NY time and several news comes out at 8:30 NY Time. Given all that it is a bit premature to declare a pin bar. Your chart might be set differently than mine though.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying a SELL is wrong. My point is that the reasoning doesn't justify a sell or a buy for that matter in my mind.
  • #8,210
  • Edited 5:56am Jun 16, 2009 5:39am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting fxtrader29
He was right, the E/U turned at 3747.
Indeed, he was. We all know that Jacko has an uncanny view of the markets. Still, I managed to grab 50 good pips on that trade. Good for a week start.

BTW, I've seen that you usually enter in counter trades, based on Jacko's view of market direction. Do you also apply a counter trade A-H in case the trade goes against you?

As for me, I've been all day just sitting on my hands waiting for PA to get to my sell target. I'm trying to stick to my rules, and the first one is: on my TF, only Trade the Trend. Since I'm currently short biased, I'll only short this market till I see a change of direction. Have to admit, though, it's so hard watching the pips bye bye in days like today...

Anyway, congrats on your trade, Good Piping!
  • #8,211
  • Jun 16, 2009 5:54am Jun 16, 2009 5:54am
Quoting jcalow
Just placed a pending sell @ 1.3830, based on the fact that current 4h bar is a pin on my chart. Anyone else thinking same?
Quoting RickyRudy
The 4H on my chart ends 1.5 hours from now at 8:00 AM NY time and several news comes out at 8:30 NY Time. Given all that it is a bit premature to declare a pin bar. Your chart might be set differently than mine though.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying a SELL is wrong. My point is that the reasoning doesn't justify a sell or a buy for that matter in my mind.
Jcalow, although it's a bit early to see an H4 pin bar, what I do have is a nice H1 pin bar sitting on top of the 50% fib. Ricky may be right, however, with news coming out in a couple of hours, anything can happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.png Size: 24 KB
  • #8,212
  • Jun 16, 2009 8:29am Jun 16, 2009 8:29am
Quoting RickyRudy
My LONG position is 68 pips in the green and I've locked in 50 pips of profit....
Just got stopped out of my LONG position at 1.3870 for a 65 pip profit.
  • #8,213
  • Edited 8:59am Jun 16, 2009 8:39am | Edited 8:59am
In SHORT at 1.3860. Hopefully I'm not over trading here.

EDIT: I don't feel good about this trade, LOL. I'm going to bail if I get a chance to hit break even and wait to see what happens. If not I'll take my loss. The gains I've had the past few days should suffice. I'll take whatever pips I've got and go home happy. NO more trading for the rest of the day unless this thing hits resistance later. I really didn't have a plan when I took the trade. Posting my trades in this thread keeps me honest.

Alright, got out at B/E. It's now at 1.3858. I'm perfectly happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for a better opportunity.
  • #8,214
  • Edited 9:24am Jun 16, 2009 9:23am | Edited 9:24am
My TSL was active and I was stopped out with a +96pips.
I have set a buy order to 1.3850, SL53. We'll see...(demo trading)

Bye, AT
  • #8,215
  • Jun 16, 2009 10:10am Jun 16, 2009 10:10am
תודה
  • #8,216
  • Jun 16, 2009 11:26am Jun 16, 2009 11:26am
update:

Still in long from 1.3773. Moved hard stop to 1.3850, 75 pips locked in.
confidence low=tighter stops.
Now it's up to price to keep me in, or boot me out.
  • #8,217
  • Jun 16, 2009 11:45am Jun 16, 2009 11:45am
Quoting Low
update:

Still in long from 1.3773. Moved hard stop to 1.3850, 75 pips locked in.
confidence low=tighter stops.
Now it's up to price to keep me in, or boot me out.
Good job Low.
  • #8,218
  • Edited 12:28pm Jun 16, 2009 11:52am | Edited 12:28pm
Closed trade for 94 pips @ 1.3868. Reversed position.

Since I thought of this upward move as a pullback, I also took a short at 1.3868 (market order).this one I'm hoping to let ride.

We'll see.

Edited because I was too chickens**t to let price close me out, and just TP'd manually.
  • #8,219
  • Jun 16, 2009 11:57am Jun 16, 2009 11:57am
Quoting RickyRudy
Good job Low.
Thx Ricky,it appears fate even smiles upon the handicapped every now and again.
  • #8,220
  • Edited 3:07pm Jun 16, 2009 2:45pm | Edited 3:07pm
I went long today , at 1.3780 - the reason - 38.2 % fib on the daily chart drawn from 1.2878 to 1.4325 and the round number around it .Put a TP at 1.3890, which was eventually reached, by the time i got back from work. Not much , but it was a good adition to my cold beer. The TP was based the zone at 38 fibs on the last H4 HHLL and round #

I hope we all have good trades in future
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